Property Market 2020

The Belly

Pheonix10 wrote: »

What's this mean in layman's terms? Have we seen this before?

REITs are heavily dependent on capital markets and the property market, the freezing up of capital and the collapse of the property market resulted in major problems for some of the REITs.

Risk that effect them


Valuation risk

Property is a illiquid asset and cant be turned into cash fast. A bit like not being able to repay your mortgage and trying to sell your house when there are no buyers like the last crash.

Capital markets/Refinancing Risk

You cant pay your mortgage and need to refinance the house. The bank won't lend so you go to the equity markets. They are declining so you cant get borrow money from investors there.

In a nut shell investors are losing confidence which is reflected in the drop.

voluntary

Sales forced by liquidity needs is now a norm. This is similar to what happened during 2008 financial crash, when gold and precious metals fell with shares for several months.

It's an ongoing hunt for a liquidity. Everything is being sold. Investors run to the exit.

Assetbacked

voluntary wrote: »

Sales forced by liquidity needs is now a norm. This is similar to what happened during 2008 financial crash, when gold and precious metals fell with shares for several months.

It's an ongoing hunt for a liquidity. Everything is being sold. Investors run to the exit.

The reason they are running for the exit is because they are panicking and panic is a symptom of a bubble.

landofthetree

Computer Science Student wrote: »

What do people anticipate will happen to income tax for those still in employment. In other words, how high can they go ?

How long is a piece of string?

Really hard to know.

Dunston

Assetbacked wrote: »

Just had a look on Airbnb for places in Dublin for this weekend, Friday to Sunday and the entire place. There are over 300 properties in Dublin available this weekend. That is astonishing; over 300 whole apartments just sitting idle when we are in a rental crisis. No sympathy to be honest and hopefully a sizeable portion of these need income so could end up back on the long term rental market as the crisis persists beyond the next two weeks, as is predicted.

I dont think it goes any higher than 300+. I've searched a few different cities including New York and all say 300+ available

Villa05

Mad_maxx wrote:

Anything that smells of profiting from hardship will be curbed

The property market as was for the last 5 years is the definition of profiting from hardship

ittakestwo wrote:

Thankfully the past few years we have had a financially prudent government in charge that has left financial capacity to deal with this crises.

I don't know where to start with this comment
Near full employment and barely managing a surplus
Corrective actions after the crash reversed
Failure to bring down government debt
Reversing/postponing taxes that would have made housing cheaper and generated revenue for local services providing greater quality of life for residents
Bank profits exempt from tax. Despite this very same tax used to save them.
Policies that created a housing bubble leading to extortionate rents and property prices leaving little scope for revenue generation or fiscal stimulus in the event of a downturn

The Belly

For people currently renting and made redundant the rent will most likely fall to what HAP rates are at the moment.

And no rent until this kicks in as my understanding is back rent is not paid for under HAP.

What option does the landlord have but to accept this given the circumstances? If they dont agree its Zero rent.

Whos going to enforce the current rules?

Nothing is going to force anyone to leave their home during this crisis.

Banks will have no choice but to accept what the landlord has to accept from the tenant with a break in any repayments until the HAP comes through.

randoplh134

Assetbacked wrote: »

Yes, it is up for tenants which leads to it being up for landlords. Prepare for people trying to get out of leases or asking for time to pay/seeking lower rent once the job losses follow. The US is the driver for the Irish economy, not what is happening in Europe. After all, we have used the US to dig us out of the recession, enabling the economy to speed beyond the rest of the EU. US turmoil is Irish turmoil.

Forgive the naivety but you mentioned " Prepare for people trying to get out of leases ", surely tenants could just forfeit their deposit, cancel their standing order and walk away from the lease once they give the LL notice ?

randoplh134

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

Trump has been bullying the Fed and they fired their last blank over the weekend but no doubt that Obama and Bernanke bear more responsibility than him .

Exactly, someone will always go off topic any chance they get to bash Trump, even when it has no context to the discussion at hand and they're clearly not educated on the subject matter.

voluntary

Villa05 wrote: »

The property market as was for the last 5 years is the definition of profiting from hardship

So are diamonds, electronics, electric car batteries, even t-shirts. The world is cruel.

randoplh134

Mad_maxx wrote: »

I don't see a situation where those with cash swoop in like from 2012 on

Anything that smells of profiting from hardship will be curbed

How in gods name would it be curbed?

Quick daddy government please stop all these evil (most likely ) prudent, responsible investors who were patient enough to wait and delay gratification so they could purchase property at a reasonable price.

Get real, cash buyers/majority cash buyers will make a killing and there is nothing wrong with that.

randoplh134

Pheonix10 wrote: »

What's this mean in layman's terms? Have we seen this before?

Depends when you were born.

Buckle up either way as we are facing a financial depression, act accordingly.

Villa05

voluntary wrote:

So are diamonds, electronics, electric car batteries, even t-shirts. The world is cruel.

I don't disagree, however the property market is 100% in the control of local/national forces.
It would be logical and sensible to run it a manner that was of benefit to the greater good and of benefit to the country. Continuous boom bust cycles will cripple the country.
We are supposed to be amongst the best educated in the world. One would expect better

mosii

Now would be a good time to get our Apple money back.

Mic 1972

Assetbacked wrote: »

Just had a look on Airbnb for places in Dublin for this weekend, Friday to Sunday and the entire place. There are over 300 properties in Dublin available this weekend. That is astonishing; over 300 whole apartments just sitting idle when we are in a rental crisis. No sympathy to be honest and hopefully a sizeable portion of these need income so could end up back on the long term rental market as the crisis persists beyond the next two weeks, as is predicted.

Who in their right mind would rent out an apartment long term in this moment with unstable job security for everyone ? LLs with empty properties can consider themselves lucky

landofthetree

voluntary wrote: »

So are diamonds, electronics, electric car batteries, even t-shirts. The world is cruel.

Nobody needs diamonds.

There are cheap alternatives to the stuff above.

No cheap alternative for housing in Ireland.

beggars_bush

mosii wrote: »

Now would be a good time to get our Apple money back.

It belongs to other counties

beggars_bush

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Who in their right mind would rent out an apartment long term in this moment with unstable job security for everyone ? LLs with empty properties can consider themselves lucky

I would rent an Air BnB for one or two nights then offer the landlord to rent it for e.g. 3 months at a knockdown price

They'd be a fool not to take it

voluntary

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Who in their right mind would rent out an apartment long term in this moment with unstable job security for everyone ? LLs with empty properties can consider themselves lucky

Anyone who doesn't want to wast 1000 or 2000 of income every month? You do a business you take a risk. Landlord who's not renting out is like these restaurants today which are closing the door. OUT OF BUSINESS.

awec

If things end up properly tits up I wonder what the chances are of the state funded housing projects. Generates employment and much-needed homes, but hard to see where the money comes from to fund it.

Outside of this, it's hard to see where supply is going to come from. In a worst case scenario, supply is going to drop to very low levels. Developers, if they don't shut up shop, are going to find it very difficult to get the funding to finance new developments. Might see a glut of apartments hit the market from the buy-to-let investors getting rid, but there's going to be a scarcity of 3/4 bed houses.

JamesMason

Pheonix10 wrote: »

What's this mean in layman's terms? Have we seen this before?

IMO all those expensive apartments bought wholesale by REITs that are lying idle, will not only be off-loaded ASAP, but may become derelict due to a lack of buyers.

beggars_bush

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire has warned that the country faces recession this year, as he announced a €45 billion aid package to help businesses and employees cope with the coronavirus crisis.

The French government, due to present a series of further support measures shortly, will base them "on a growth forecast of minus one percent, that is to say negative growth," Mr Le Maire told RTL radio.

The forecast was "provisional", he added.

Mr Le Maire described the struggle against the coronavirus pandemic as an "economic and financial war" that will last some time.


******

Recession already planned for in France

stinger31

randoplh134 wrote: »

How in gods name would it be curbed?

Quick daddy government please stop all these evil (most likely ) prudent, responsible investors who were patient enough to wait and delay gratification so they could purchase property at a reasonable price.

Get real, cash buyers/majority cash buyers will make a killing and there is nothing wrong with that.

100%

Villa05

awec wrote:

If things end up properly tits up I wonder what the chances are of the state funded housing projects. Generates employment and much-needed homes, but hard to see where the money comes from to fund it.

Logical and sensible in high demand areas and would be profitable for the state and affordable for the renter at half the current market rent
State owns the land. Interest rates at close to zero. Workers available from commercial projects shelved. Materials will be at rock bottom prices

Housing a major issue in the last election so a party that pushes this will be rewarded handsomely in the polls in a country that is politically divided

Win win win

Claw Hammer

Villa05 wrote: »

Logical and sensible in high demand areas and would be profitable for the state and affordable for the renter at half the current market rent
State owns the land. Interest rates at close to zero. Workers available from commercial projects shelved. Materials will be at rock bottom prices

Housing a major issue in the last election so a party that pushes this will be rewarded handsomely in the polls in a country that is politically divided

Win win win

By the time this is over, the State will be in no position to borrow money for any purpose.

smurgen

Claw Hammer wrote: »

By the time this is over, the State will be in no position to borrow money for any purpose.

Hap payments will be gone as landlords are due to become price takers from price setters.

awec

smurgen wrote: »

Hap payments will be gone as landlords are due to become price takers from price setters.

HTB too presumably if it came to it, though I am not sure the total cost of that would build you too many houses.

markodaly

smurgen wrote: »

Hap payments will be gone as landlords are due to become price takers from price setters.

HAP payments are a drop in the ocean to what this crisis is going to cost the tax payer.
We are in uncharted territory.

Irish_peppa

can someone tell me how a housing crisis and people living in hotels can change to empty apartments and end of the rental sector in the space of a few weeks? Where are the thousands of people that couldnt get accomodation in Dublin last month going?

Irish_peppa

smurgen wrote: »

Hap payments will be gone as landlords are due to become price takers from price setters.

Where are the HAP payments going too? Being withdrawn by government? Then what do the people on HAP do live on the streets???:eek: