Property Market 2020

Villa05

Claw Hammer wrote:

By the time this is over, the State will be in no position to borrow money for any purpose.

Money was found in 1946 when the world was in ruins. Borrowing money for profitable schemes is the fastest way to recover

After the last crash money was printed to to maintain foolish investments (overvalued property stocks and shares) , maybe lessons can be learned this time

voluntary

Irish_peppa wrote: »

Where are the HAP payments going too? Being withdrawn by government? Then what do the people on HAP do live on the streets???:eek:

One option is that the payments may continue, but gov can ask landlords to 'share' the burden by offering reduced rates effectively reducing the rents. Everyone is going to feel the pain. No exception.

Idbatterim

must be a period of massive stress for the "vulnerable" in social housing...

zac8

Irish_peppa wrote: »

can someone tell me how a housing crisis and people living in hotels can change to empty apartments and end of the rental sector in the space of a few weeks? Where are the thousands of people that couldnt get accomodation in Dublin last month going?

Foreigners returning home after losing their jobs. The same thing that happened in 2008.

Mic 1972

voluntary wrote: »

Anyone who doesn't want to wast 1000 or 2000 of income every month? You do a business you take a risk. Landlord who's not renting out is like these restaurants today which are closing the door. OUT OF BUSINESS.

As you put it, renting is already risky in normal times. LLs with a empty house now aren't going to take their chances with a long term tenancy that may result in the tenant not being able to pay. It is very difficult to evict somebody, and it will be even more difficult during the outbreak.

regarding the 2000 euro income, are you aware of how much of that money is actually going to the landlord? probably less than half

The Belly

Mic 1972 wrote: »

As you put it, renting is already risky in normal times. LLs with a empty house now aren't going to take their chances with a long term tenancy that may result in the tenant not being able to pay. It is very difficult to evict somebody, and it will be even more difficult during the outbreak.

regarding the 2000 euro income, are you aware of how much of that money is actually going to the landlord? probably less than half

Landlords with vacant property and no debt will probably leave it empty not so sure about landlords with o/s mortgage on the property though.

Banks are going to be less likely to deal with non payment if it could be rented.

voluntary

The Belly wrote: »

Landlords with vacant property and no debt will probably leave it empty not so sure about landlords with o/s mortgage on the property though.

I know good few people renting out homes, never heard anyone 'withdrawing' from the market because of the risk that new tenants may not be able to pay. Keeping a passive income resource like a property willingly off the market sounds a bit unreal to me.

smurgen

The Belly wrote: »

Landlords with vacant property and no debt will probably leave it empty not so sure about landlords with o/s mortgage on the property though.

Banks are going to be less likely to deal with non payment if it could be rented.

Until a vacancy tax comes then hopefully have a go landlords are set to liquidate.

The Belly

Your probably right but some landlords might hold off and see how it plays out over the next few months.

landofthetree

LONDON (Reuters) - The sudden economic stop caused by coronavirus containment measures will cause a global recession this year and could see U.S. corporate default rates spike above 10% in the next 12 months, ratings agency S&P Global warned on Tuesday.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-defaults-s-p/coronavirus-to-cause-global-recession-surge-in-defaults-sp-global-idUSKBN214216

A load of the multinationals that are in Ireland will be in serious trouble as well.

ittakestwo

Villa05 wrote: »

The property market as was for the last 5 years is the definition of profiting from hardship


I don't know where to start with this comment
Near full employment and barely managing a surplus
Corrective actions after the crash reversed
Failure to bring down government debt
Reversing/postponing taxes that would have made housing cheaper and generated revenue for local services providing greater quality of life for residents
Bank profits exempt from tax. Despite this very same tax used to save them.
Policies that created a housing bubble leading to extortionate rents and property prices leaving little scope for revenue generation or fiscal stimulus in the event of a downturn

A lot of misinformation in your post. Best bit was "failure to bring down govt debt" ..... 2011 it was 125%of GDP, today its 60% of GDP.

Mic 1972

voluntary wrote: »

I know good few people renting out homes, never heard anyone 'withdrawing' from the market because of the risk that new tenants may not be able to pay. Keeping a passive income resource like a property willingly off the market sounds a bit unreal to me.

You never heard of apartments left vacant in Dublin? it happens all the time, it happened during recession too because of low rent and unstable jobs

Renting a house is a business and bears several risks, far from being a "passive income"

Mic 1972

smurgen wrote: »

Until a vacancy tax comes then hopefully have a go landlords are set to liquidate.

LLs who are paying mortgage will have to either keep renting or liquidate. This circles back to those who said that nobody is going to sell while prices are dropping. A lot of people will sell to escape the risk of devaluation while they are still paying mortgage for the full price

Mic 1972

The Belly wrote: »

Landlords with vacant property and no debt will probably leave it empty not so sure about landlords with o/s mortgage on the property though.

Banks are going to be less likely to deal with non payment if it could be rented.

Yep, i agree

Villa05

ittakestwo wrote:

A lot of misinformation in your post. Best bit was "failure to bring down govt debt" ..... 2011 it was 125%of GDP, today its 60% of GDP.

Given the day it is, there is plenty of reference to Ireland GDP figures and leprechaun economics. GDP is not fit for purpose as measung tool for govt debt

In figures can you tell me what Irish state debt was in 2015 and what it is now in 2020

pearcider

ittakestwo wrote: »

A lot of misinformation in your post. Best bit was "failure to bring down govt debt" ..... 2011 it was 125%of GDP, today its 60% of GDP.

Pretty accurate post. Government debt topped out at 200 billion and it’s still around that. Debt to GDP ratio is meaningless since a lot of the growth since 2008 was phony ie based on more debt.

Mad_maxx

landofthetree wrote: »

LONDON (Reuters) - The sudden economic stop caused by coronavirus containment measures will cause a global recession this year and could see U.S. corporate default rates spike above 10% in the next 12 months, ratings agency S&P Global warned on Tuesday.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-defaults-s-p/coronavirus-to-cause-global-recession-surge-in-defaults-sp-global-idUSKBN214216

A load of the multinationals that are in Ireland will be in serious trouble as well.

None of the big American multinationals based here are at risk of credit default, we've no energy sector

Apple
Google
Microsoft
Facebook

Excellent balance sheets, none of this means they won't cut numbers however, wouldn't expect it however unless the recession lasts all year

Mad_maxx

Assetbacked wrote: »

IRES REIT share price watch; https://live.euronext.com/en/product/equities/IE00BJ34P519-XMSM/irish-res-prop/ires/quotes

Down another 14% today, bringing its capitulation to 40% from this time last month. Utter chaos.

REITs are stocks, their trajectory should not be used as a guide to the real market

JamesMason

Mad_maxx wrote: »

REITs are stocks, their trajectory should not be used as a guide to the real market

How about real market confidence?

OwlsZat

I wonder when the Government will nationalize one of the homebuilders...

Sheeps

Mad_maxx wrote: »

None of the big American multinationals based here are at risk of credit default, we've no energy sector

Apple
Google
Microsoft
Facebook

Excellent balance sheets, none of this means they won't cut numbers however, wouldn't expect it however unless the recession lasts all year

Apple can only survie for about half a year before they need to start reducing their numbers.

optogirl

OwlsZat wrote: »

Then call it your forever home. Good luck with your purchase.

I will not and thank you.

handlemaster

The sensible thing to do for buyers would be to sit this out and see what happens. The natural cycle would see a downward pull for the forseeable future. Trump is looking to prop up his campaign battle and it looong to drop a package of measures of around 1 trillion dollars including Helicopter money. This might throw the market for a while but america is not the only show in town anymore. China has been hit hard and europe also.

Xertz

Mad_maxx wrote: »

None of the big American multinationals based here are at risk of credit default, we've no energy sector

Apple
Google
Microsoft
Facebook

Excellent balance sheets, none of this means they won't cut numbers however, wouldn't expect it however unless the recession lasts all year

Many of the multinational pharmaceutical, biotechnology and medical technologies companies based here may actually see their revenues go way up because of this. Many of them have drugs and products that are hugely necessary in the fight against this virus.

The companies most at risk are consumer products companies and anyone involved in travel. For example, Ryanair could end up significantly smaller, although they’re so flexible as an airline I would suspect they’ll survive because they can downscale fairly brutally without consequence, unlike many of their older competitors.

smurgen

Xertz wrote: »

Many of the multinational pharmaceutical, biotechnology and medical technologies companies based here may actually see their revenues go way up because of this. Many of them have drugs and products that are hugely necessary in the fight against this virus.

The companies most at risk are consumer products companies and anyone involved in travel. For example, Ryanair could end up significantly smaller, although they’re so flexible as an airline I would suspect they’ll survive because they can downscale fairly brutally without consequence, unlike many of their older competitors.

Medical devices are way down as surgery is way down.Stryker the biggest here in cork is down share price wise in a dramatic fashion.almost 14% alone last Friday.

SteelyDanJalapeno

Regeneron on my shortlist

SteelyDanJalapeno

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

Regeneron on my shortlist

They are at an all time high. Up 20% in a month, 50% is 45 days, might have missed the boat there to a large extent.

SteelyDanJalapeno

Augeo wrote: »

They are at an all time high. Up 20% in a month, 50% is 45 days, might have missed the boat there to a large extent.

Not quite their all time high, but not far off. One to watch anyway

OwlsZat

smurgen wrote: »

Medical devices are way down as surgery is way down.Stryker the biggest here in cork is down share price wise in a dramatic fashion.almost 14% alone last Friday.

Medatronic make the ventilators as far as I know. Could be a nice jump in sales there.

Reversal

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/health-pharma/trump-stance-on-pharmaceutical-production-could-hit-ireland-1.4205295

Uh oh.

Trump using the crisis as a catalyst to pull pharmaceutical industries back to the states.