Property Market 2020

randoplh134

SozBbz wrote: »

What is the point of such an arbitrary figure? Surely its all relative to a persons means, need and local factors in the area they want to live in.

Unfortunately we can't go that granular

The Belly

The_Conductor wrote: »

This will depend entirely on someone's unique set of circumstances.
You may consider a mortgage repayment of >1000 a month to be unsustainable long term- however, if that person is currently paying twice that in rent (which wouldn't be unusual in Dublin)- it may represent a significant improvement in their current financial well being.

Yes- a thousand a month (or more) sounds like a lot of money- however, its not a blanket statement that can be applied across the board.

Given the current situation and the uncertainty around the economy at large the only people I can see buying are those afraid they will not get a mortgage in the future and are far enough along where the Banks are committed.

Public sector employees with CFD or permanent contracts and those in the equivalent jobs in the private sector which are few will hold off as they will get a mortgage regardless.

With both of the above having either sold their house and currently renting or have their deposit saved.

Cash buyers will wait.

The cost of rent for them will be small in comparison to the savings they will make on reduced property prices if the last crisis was anything to go by.

New Dublin House price indice 2009.
Peak price 426,000
Q4 2009 Price 236,532
Fall of 45%

Second Hand Dublin House price indice 2009.
Peak price 549,330
Q4 2009 Price 294452
Fall of 46%

Without certainty the property market will freeze up in the short term.

Canyon86

Im currently in the market to buy, (not a cash buyer), but mortgage approved in principle till July, In a relatively stable job

I have been looking at properties the last few weeks but I am unsure to hold off a while to see if prices fall or what to do?

Any advice?

hope everybody is staying sane amongst the madness

Canyon

Knex*

Canyon86 wrote: »

Im currently in the market to buy, (not a cash buyer), but mortgage approved in principle till July, In a relatively stable job

I have been looking at properties the last few weeks but I am unsure to hold off a while to see if prices fall or what to do?

Any advice?

hope everybody is staying sane amongst the madness

Canyon

Are you comfortable going ahead and buying a house now if in 6 months property prices are 20% less?

The figure is admittedly arbitrary, but this is the question I asked myself before deciding to hold off buying for a while.

If I find something that is good value in the meantime, great, but I don't think prices have even begun to slide to where they will ultimately end up yet.

Trades off you have to consider are of course rent prices, banks currently lending, market freeze, etc.

Padre_Pio

nhoj88 wrote: »

Are you buying or selling?

"I called my EA last week and put my sale on pause. There's no harm in waiting a month or two to see how things lie." Sounds like a seller

"In fairness I haven't told the solicitor, since that side takes months anyways, but I plan on renegociating if the property market turns." Sounds like a buyer

Buying, sorry

pearcider

Graham wrote: »

Nobody has any idea what property prices will be like in a month, never mind 12 months.

Nobody has any idea what finance will be available over the same period.

Eh yeah we do. Property will be down hugely since it was a massive credit bubble that inflated it in the first place. That bubble has now popped. Trump just announced QE for the people like I said he would on the 2019 thread back in October. The virus was just the spark. The entire credit system is about to burn to the ground. Stay in cash.

SozBbz

randoplh134 wrote: »

Unfortunately we can't go that granular

Exactly, so putting any number on it is utterly pointless. So that post was meaningless.

IndieRoar111

Hi Boardsies,

Long time lurker, first time poster here. Please advise me on our current situation it would be much appreciated.

We have gone sale agreed on a 3 bed house in Dublin for 345k, the asking price was 360k. We are now having 2nd thoughts with all that is going on as we may get a property dirt cheap if we wait. Here is our current situation below to help advise us.


Current situation:
Age: Both of us are 31
2 kids
Currently renting a 2 bed house @ 1500pm
Combined income: 100k
Job security: My job is not safe but my husbands is, his job is 75k per year.


Potential future situation:
House price: 345k
Deposit: 160k
Mortgage per month 720e ( 10 year fixed )


The house is in an ideal locations and has all the extras we desire if we would buy a house that didn't have them, it is literally in walk in condition and will likely be living there for at least 20-25 years.

The impeding recession is putting us off as we may nearly purchase a place with cash if we wait ( we can easily save 2500e per month whilst renting ) .

If we go for it now we will both move in with my parents until the sale is complete which would allow us to save an additional 10k.

Any advice is much appreciated as we are stressing out.

Thank you

Sheeps

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

Hi Boardsies,

Long time lurker, first time poster here. Please advise me on our current situation it would be much appreciated.

We have gone sale agreed on a 3 bed house in Dublin for 345k, the asking price was 360k. We are now having 2nd thoughts with all that is going on as we may get a property dirt cheap if we wait. Here is our current situation below to help advise us.


Current situation:
Age: Both of us are 31
2 kids
Currently renting a 2 bed house @ 1500pm
Combined income: 100k
Job security: My job is not safe but my husbands is, his job is 75k per year.


Potential future situation:
House price: 345k
Deposit: 160k
Mortgage per month 720e ( 10 year fixed )


The house is in an ideal locations and has all the extras we desire if we would buy a house that didn't have them, it is literally in walk in condition and will likely be living there for at least 20-25 years.

The impeding recession is putting us off as we may nearly purchase a place with cash if we wait ( we can easily save 2500e per month whilst renting ) .

If we go for it now we will both move in with my parents until the sale is complete which would allow us to save an additional 10k.

Any advice is much appreciated as we are stressing out.

Thank you

Go for it. In 6 months time you may not have that option available to you, whether you have a job or not.

SozBbz

pearcider wrote: »

Eh yeah we do. Property will be down hugely since it was a massive credit bubble that inflated it in the first place. That bubble has now popped. Trump just announced QE for the people like I said he would on the 2019 thread back in October. The virus was just the spark. The entire credit system is about to burn to the ground. Stay in cash.

Eh, no we don't.

We know how much houses cost to build, so I wouldnt call it a bubble.
There is still a supply shortage, and any downturn is going to lead to a contraction in new homes coming on stream.

Don't even start to say you saw the Coronavirus coming. All the chaos we're currently seeing is directly attributable to public health measures. The are 2 exceptions;

- Saudi/Russian pissing contest
- Stock market had been upward only for a very long time, and that was never going to last forever

Everything else is temporary. I have no doubt that not all businesses will survive this, its an enormous stress, but most will. Govts and Banks are stepping in to ensure there will still be an economy once this has passed. Irish people are probably going to be bursting to take a holiday and go out to eat and drink after prolonged confinement.

voluntary

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

Hi Boardsies,

Long time lurker, first time poster here. Please advise me on our current situation it would be much appreciated.

We have gone sale agreed on a 3 bed house in Dublin for 345k, the asking price was 360k. We are now having 2nd thoughts with all that is going on as we may get a property dirt cheap if we wait. Here is our current situation below to help advise us.


Current situation:
Age: Both of us are 31
2 kids
Currently renting a 2 bed house @ 1500pm
Combined income: 100k
Job security: My job is not safe but my husbands is, his job is 75k per year.


Potential future situation:
House price: 345k
Deposit: 160k
Mortgage per month 720e ( 10 year fixed )


The house is in an ideal locations and has all the extras we desire if we would buy a house that didn't have them, it is literally in walk in condition and will likely be living there for at least 20-25 years.

The impeding recession is putting us off as we may nearly purchase a place with cash if we wait ( we can easily save 2500e per month whilst renting ) .

If we go for it now we will both move in with my parents until the sale is complete which would allow us to save an additional 10k.

Any advice is much appreciated as we are stressing out.

Thank you

Considering the crisis, your large deposit and the fact that you currently live in a 2 bed house. Save yourself the stress and pick some modern 2-bed apartment for max 250k and be mortgage free in 5 years time. Then upgrade if you still need and want to.

SozBbz

voluntary wrote: »

Considering the crisis, your large deposit and the fact that you currently live in a 2 bed house. Save yourself the stress and pick some modern 2-bed apartment for max 250k and be mortgage free in 5 years time. Then upgrade if you still need and want to.

Don't do this.

Why would they buy a property that doesnt suit their needs - they have 2 kids?

The more you move, the more you pay Stamp Duty. Its relatively low at 1% now, but that won't last forever. Let alone all the other costs of moving.

Go ahead, buy the house. It sounds like its very affordable and meets your long term needs. It also sounds like you could withstand a considerable change in circumstances without getting into trouble.

IndieRoar111

voluntary wrote: »

Considering the crisis, your large deposit and the fact that you currently live in a 2 bed house. Save yourself the stress and pick some modern 2-bed apartment for max 250k and be mortgage free in 5 years time. Then upgrade if you still need and want to.

We were thinking that, i should have mentioned we are planning to have 1 more kid in 2-3 years so we will need the 3 bed.

Mic 1972

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

We were thinking that, i should have mentioned we are planning to have 1 more kid in 2-3 years so we will need the 3 bed.

If you are enthusiastic about the house you could probably go ahead. There is added value in a property that you personally like and it's not just an investment. The property market is very slow to either drop or recover anyway

SozBbz

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

We were thinking that, i should have mentioned we are planning to have 1 more kid in 2-3 years so we will need the 3 bed.

Not everyone can buy at the bottom of the market. Most people buy at a time that suits their circumstances. Property prices will go up and they will go down at some point. Trying to play the market for a roof over your head is madness. Trying to buy at the best time is for investors, not ordinary people buying a home.

The worst thing you can do is buy something that doesnt suit you for the medium to long term, because in that scenario, if things go south then you may not be able to move.

If you're buying for the long term (which it sounds like you are) then all you need to consider is if the home meets your needs both now and in the future (sounds like it absolutely does) and if the cost of finance is reasonable and affordable (€720 sounds very affordable to me!)

If you want to be mortgage free, maybe ask your lender if its possible to make overpayments during your fixed term period. I'm in a fixed period with KBC currently, and I can pay up to 10% of the mortgage off as a lump sum without paying a penalty. BOI allow you to pay 10% over each month. They all have their own rules, so ask your lender.

pearcider

SozBbz wrote: »

Eh, no we don't.

We know how much houses cost to build, so I wouldnt call it a bubble.
There is still a supply shortage, and any downturn is going to lead to a contraction in new homes coming on stream.

Don't even start to say you saw the Coronavirus coming. All the chaos we're currently seeing is directly attributable to public health measures. The are 2 exceptions;

- Saudi/Russian pissing contest
- Stock market had been upward only for a very long time, and that was never going to last forever

Everything else is temporary. I have no doubt that not all businesses will survive this, its an enormous stress, but most will. Govts and Banks are stepping in to ensure there will still be an economy once this has passed. Irish people are probably going to be bursting to take a holiday and go out to eat and drink after prolonged confinement.

It has nothing to with the virus. The system was unsustainable due to the insane growth of credit and it would always end like this. Helicopter money as Milton Friedman called it. This insanity is not new and entirely predictable. John Law did it to France 300 years ago. The stock market bubble is collapsing. The more illiquid but just as overvalued property market is not far behind.

awec

pearcider wrote: »

It has nothing to with the virus. The system was unsustainable due to the insane growth of credit and it would always end like this. Helicopter money as Milton Friedman called it. This insanity is not new and entirely predictable. John Law did it to France 300 years ago. The stock market bubble is collapsing. The more illiquid but just as overvalued property market is not far behind.

Don't even know where to begin with this. What absolute rubbish.

cunnifferous

Have been looking to buy for last two years with a decent deposit saved. I was worried about continually rising prices but the last crash was still too fresh in my mind to pull the trigger on what seemed to be vastly overpriced properties.

I'm not expecting a bargain at 2012 prices but at the same time I do hope some rationality is restored to prices. 5 years of double digit growth are just not sustainable or desirable and if/when prices do fall back I hope they reach a point of incremental rather than exponential growth again.

spaceHopper

You want to move in with your parents in the middle of all that is going on with two germ vectors - don't that is not fair on them. As for the house it you can afford it and will be paying less on your mortgage than the rent you are currently paying. I'd go for it but keep renting where you are now for two reasons, you need to protect your parents and if it falls through you will be stuck living with them for longer and unlikely to get somewhere else with out locking your self in for a year for less.

cunnifferous

awec wrote: »

Don't even know where to begin with this. What absolute rubbish.

The virus has undoubtedly been the trigger point but the global economy has been pumped up on 'emergency' measures for the last 10 years. Every time central banks have turned off the taps of low interest rates and quantitative easing the global economy has struggled.

If anything good comes from this I would hope that it triggers a discussion about ways to assist the majority of citizens in times of economic crises. The solutions to the last crisis in 08/09 pumped too much money into corporations that didn't trickle down to the masses in the form of secure jobs and wage increases.

pearcider

awec wrote: »

Don't even know where to begin with this. What absolute rubbish.

What a childish reply. As I said in previous posts, world financial system began meltdown in October 2019 read up on the repo crisis. 2008 was a warning that the rampant speculation and debt accumulation was leading to a highly unstable financial system. Unfortunately nothing was learned from Lehman and all the fraud that preceded it. And now the system is near collapse again and there is no saving it. The virus was the straw that broke the camels back.

The Belly

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

Hi Boardsies,

Long time lurker, first time poster here. Please advise me on our current situation it would be much appreciated.

We have gone sale agreed on a 3 bed house in Dublin for 345k, the asking price was 360k. We are now having 2nd thoughts with all that is going on as we may get a property dirt cheap if we wait. Here is our current situation below to help advise us.


Current situation:
Age: Both of us are 31
2 kids
Currently renting a 2 bed house @ 1500pm
Combined income: 100k
Job security: My job is not safe but my husbands is, his job is 75k per year.


Potential future situation:
House price: 345k
Deposit: 160k
Mortgage per month 720e ( 10 year fixed )


The house is in an ideal locations and has all the extras we desire if we would buy a house that didn't have them, it is literally in walk in condition and will likely be living there for at least 20-25 years.

The impeding recession is putting us off as we may nearly purchase a place with cash if we wait ( we can easily save 2500e per month whilst renting ) .

If we go for it now we will both move in with my parents until the sale is complete which would allow us to save an additional 10k.

Any advice is much appreciated as we are stressing out.

Thank you

Dont stress as your in a very strong position with a very large deposit.

However,

We have a global pandemic coupled with a global financial crash playing out now.
Markets in free fall
Oil prices in free fall
140k jobs lost here and 200k more to come in the space of days.
Nobody knows how long it will last or can say when the end is in sight.

This is not positive for house prices anywhere. It may all be under control in a few months and you can still buy a house just maybe not the one you wanted.

If it were me I would wait. That house you like or one like it maybe 100k cheaper soon.

If you decide to go ahead I would be going back with a much much lower offer given the risk your taking.

coolshannagh28

pearcider wrote: »

It has nothing to with the virus. The system was unsustainable due to the insane growth of credit and it would always end like this. Helicopter money as Milton Friedman called it. This insanity is not new and entirely predictable. John Law did it to France 300 years ago. The stock market bubble is collapsing. The more illiquid but just as overvalued property market is not far behind.

Coronavirus is the catalyst but low interest rates,credit , QE and stock buybacks are the problem , it will be interesting to see if big money can force the mugs to pay for it this time .

awec

pearcider wrote: »

What a childish reply. As I said in previous posts, world financial system began meltdown in October 2019 read up on the repo crisis. 2008 was a warning that the rampant speculation and debt accumulation was leading to a highly unstable financial system. Unfortunately nothing was learned from Lehman and all the fraud that preceded it. And now the system is near collapse again and there is no saving it. The virus was the straw that broke the camels back.

The only reason the markets are down now, or that there are job losses now, is because of coronavirus.

Absolutely everything that's happening right now is a result of the current global pandemic.

Unfortunately, on here we have a few folks who've watched a few youtube videos or seen a few facebook posts and think they're market experts or economists, and are now trying to contort reality so they can claim that they accurately predicted the current state of play.

coolshannagh28

awec wrote: »

The only reason the markets are down now, or that there are job losses now, is because of coronavirus.

Absolutely everything that's happening right now is a result of the current global pandemic.

Unfortunately, on here we have a few folks who've watched a few youtube videos or seen a few facebook posts and think they're market experts or economists, and are now trying to contort reality so they can claim that they accurately predicted the current state of play.

Delusional post , the FED was forced to cut rates and print money before coronavirus indicating weakness in the US and the end of the bull market .

randoplh134

awec wrote: »

The only reason the markets are down now, or that there are job losses now, is because of coronavirus.

Absolutely everything that's happening right now is a result of the current global pandemic.

Unfortunately, on here we have a few folks who've watched a few youtube videos or seen a few facebook posts and think they're market experts or economists, and are now trying to contort reality so they can claim that they accurately predicted the current state of play.

Nonsense.

All asset classes were severely over priced, this inflated bubble was about to pop regardless of the virus. I honestly expected it to pop in 2021 ( after the US elections ), the virus has just sped the process up.

We were approaching the end of the longest bull market in history which only existed because we printed our way out of the last recession and did not address the underlying issues, this was going to occur soon either way.

landofthetree

pearcider wrote: »

It has nothing to with the virus. The system was unsustainable due to the insane growth of credit and it would always end like this. Helicopter money as Milton Friedman called it. This insanity is not new and entirely predictable. John Law did it to France 300 years ago. The stock market bubble is collapsing. The more illiquid but just as overvalued property market is not far behind.

I'd love to hear what solution Milton Friedman would have for the current situation. He really was a giant.

randoplh134

cunnifferous wrote: »

Have been looking to buy for last two years with a decent deposit saved. I was worried about continually rising prices but the last crash was still too fresh in my mind to pull the trigger on what seemed to be vastly overpriced properties.

I'm not expecting a bargain at 2012 prices but at the same time I do hope some rationality is restored to prices. 5 years of double digit growth are just not sustainable or desirable and if/when prices do fall back I hope they reach a point of incremental rather than exponential growth again.

Wait it out a bit longer, your future self will thank you.

smurgen

awec wrote: »

The only reason the markets are down now, or that there are job losses now, is because of coronavirus.

Absolutely everything that's happening right now is a result of the current global pandemic.

Unfortunately, on here we have a few folks who've watched a few youtube videos or seen a few facebook posts and think they're market experts or economists, and are now trying to contort reality so they can claim that they accurately predicted the current state of play.

People in glass houses. To say this is only the coronavirus is laughable. As I said in previous posts the correction was coming.the virus was the catalyst.
You're post is also demonstrable incorrect:

"Absolutely everything that's happening right now is a result of the current global pandemic."

Is the oil war over the global pandemic?

OwlsZat

awec wrote: »

The only reason the markets are down now, or that there are job losses now, is because of coronavirus.

Absolutely everything that's happening right now is a result of the current global pandemic.

Please stop posting in this thread.