Property Market 2020

awec

awec wrote: »

Why would you have to bail them out? We're talking about negative equity here. We're not talking about non-payers.

Uncertain times.
The folk who lost their jobs last week didn't expect to do so.

You seem oblivious to what's going on, have you watched the news at all lately?
I'm genuinely surprised at your comments.

Fair enough, not understanding how value of a property effects LTV and future options, but being oblivious to the current economic situation is baffling stuff.

awec

Augeo wrote: »

Uncertain times.
The folk who lost their jobs last week didn't expect to do so.

You seem oblivious to what's going on, have you watched the news at all lately?
I'm genuinely surprised at your comments.

Fair enough, not understanding how value of a property effects LTV and future options, but being oblivious to the current economic situation is baffling stuff.

The folks who lost their jobs last week could have bought property last month. Or they could have bought it in 2012. Job losses affect anyone, not just those who buy at the top.

I doubt anyone who lost their job is going to be selling their home any time soon.

Woshy

We are sale agreed on a house and after a lot of soul searching and agonising we are proceeding. We signed the contracts the end of last week. We're not sure if the vendors will sign as they are also purchasing a property. They may pull out and if so, we're ok with that. It is what it is. This is our long-term family house and we're looking in a very specific area for family reasons and a property has been hard to find.

We have a decent deposit as we're not first time buyers and the mortgage we will be taking is a good bit below what we had been approved for. We purposely didn't want to go too mad. We also have a good amount left in our savings after paying the deposit.

The mortgage will be 18% of our current income and we think both our jobs are fairly secure (especially mine). We did a lot of sums on how we would afford the mortgage on one salary and how that would work. The rate is fixed for three years so we know what payments will be.

I don't feel great about it, we really weren't sure if we would pull out or not but given all the info we made the best decision we could. Time will tell, I guess!

Sheeps

Woshy wrote: »

We are sale agreed on a house and after a lot of soul searching and agonising we are proceeding. We signed the contracts the end of last week. We're not sure if the vendors will sign as they are also purchasing a property. They may pull out and if so, we're ok with that. It is what it is. This is our long-term family house and we're looking in a very specific area for family reasons and a property has been hard to find.

We have a decent deposit as we're not first time buyers and the mortgage we will be taking is a good bit below what we had been approved for. We purposely didn't want to go too mad. We also have a good amount left in our savings after paying the deposit.

The mortgage will be 18% of our current income and we think both our jobs are fairly secure (especially mine). We did a lot of sums on how we would afford the mortgage on one salary and how that would work. The rate is fixed for three years so we know what payments will be.

I don't feel great about it, we really weren't sure if we would pull out or not but given all the info we made the best decision we could. Time will tell, I guess!

You will feel great when you move in. You will lose value in your home, but in 20 to 30 years time you'll look back and you wont regret a thing.

awec

Woshy wrote: »

We are sale agreed on a house and after a lot of soul searching and agonising we are proceeding. We signed the contracts the end of last week. We're not sure if the vendors will sign as they are also purchasing a property. They may pull out and if so, we're ok with that. It is what it is. This is our long-term family house and we're looking in a very specific area for family reasons and a property has been hard to find.

We have a decent deposit as we're not first time buyers and the mortgage we will be taking is a good bit below what we had been approved for. We purposely didn't want to go too mad. We also have a good amount left in our savings after paying the deposit.

The mortgage will be 18% of our current income and we think both our jobs are fairly secure (especially mine). We did a lot of sums on how we would afford the mortgage on one salary and how that would work. The rate is fixed for three years so we know what payments will be.

I don't feel great about it, we really weren't sure if we would pull out or not but given all the info we made the best decision we could. Time will tell, I guess!

Good luck Woshy, hope it all works out for you.

Mic 1972

Assetbacked wrote: »

Is it just me or does it feel like, today, that the initial panic of COVID19 is over? Working from home was a novelty prior to Paddy's Day and now it feels like we are just going to get on with things. Leo's speech last night spoke about the "calm before the storm" thus far. However, he also said that the "vast majority" of us will barely notice the virus in our system. This "vast majority" section of the population are those that are still working and keeping the economy going so can get back to normal at the drop of a hat.

As such, as noted above, residential property transactions may grind to a halt for the next while, but, given the nature of the pandemic, it is likely we will be through the worst of it in 2/3 months and then people should be able to start getting back to normal - and will get back to normal very quickly once the green light is given.

I think you are downplaying things a bit
The virus is having a very disruptive effect in Italy and soon in the rest of Europe. Italy is reporting hundreds of deaths daily with ambulances going up and down nonstop. There is a video of this lady who is talking about 60 coffins stocked up in a church and she doesn't even know which one is her father's. I mean this is more then just working from home

Mic 1972

awec wrote: »

Lads, the way you are talking absolutely nobody would buy at the top and absolutely everyone would buy at the bottom.

This is not reality. It's delusional stuff.

For there to be a top people have to buy. For there to be a bottom people have to stop buying. "Just wait" is a gross over simplication of reality.

It's crazy how nobody was buying at the bottom in 2012, despite many cash buyers had excellent opportunities available. People always seem to want to buy when everybody else is buying too

randoplh134

Augeo wrote: »

Uncertain times.
The folk who lost their jobs last week didn't expect to do so.

You seem oblivious to what's going on, have you watched the news at all lately?
I'm genuinely surprised at your comments.

Fair enough, not understanding how value of a property effects LTV and future options, but being oblivious to the current economic situation is baffling stuff.

Exactly this. Head in the sand stuff not taking into account that governments across the world just yesterday announced that they will be pumping basically UNLIMITED money into the economy to prevent a crisis and the indices didn't even blink, trading was halted on the NYSE due to the S&P dipping so much. The follow on economic effects of this will be huge and has been a long time coming.

Bargains will be had as soon as the end of the year and will probably last for at least a year or 2.

Woshy

Sheeps wrote: »

You will feel great when you move in. You will lose value in your home, but in 20 to 30 years time you'll look back and you wont regret a thing.

That's what we're thinking. Prices will go down but in 20 years time that won't matter so much to us! If we'd been less far along in the process that might have changed things too but we feel proceeding is the right thing to do for us.

awec wrote: »

Good luck Woshy, hope it all works out for you.

Thank you! Worrying times for everyone I know. Keep well everyone

Padre_Pio

Woshy wrote: »

I don't feel great about it, we really weren't sure if we would pull out or not but given all the info we made the best decision we could. Time will tell, I guess!

Why didn't you delay for a few weeks?

Buying a property takes months, what's another week or two?
You could renegotiate if things look bleak.

Sheeps

Padre_Pio wrote: »

Why didn't you delay for a few weeks?

Buying a property takes months, what's another week or two?
You could renegotiate if things look bleak.

They may not be able to get a mortgage in a few weeks

Mic 1972

Mic 1972 wrote: »

It's crazy how nobody was buying at the bottom in 2012.......

Thousands (25345) of 2012 sales on the property price register.

Woshy

Our loan offer had already issued, insurance policies were in place, contracts were ready and a closing date had been confirmed. We were quite far along in the process. We felt the options were either proceed or walk away- for a number of reasons, one of them being our own mental health!

We're ok with our decision. There's other family circumstances at play that mean we are in a good position overall and we are happy with the house and the price we are paying. It's just a bit crappy that instead of it being an exciting time getting a new house etc it's been so full of worry and uncertainty, especially as last time we purchased a house I was severely ill and the day we got the keys I was in the middle of a hospital stay. We didn't move in for several months. after that in the end.

Still, in the grand scheme of things and given what is going on in the world we are very fortunate, for many reaons.

If we had been just looking at property or had only just gone sale agreed I do think we would have waited though.

voluntary

Mic 1972 wrote: »

It's crazy how nobody was buying at the bottom in 2012

One reason could be that crystal balls weren't widely available at that time in Ireland.

Sheeps

Sheeps wrote: »

They may not be able to get a mortgage in a few weeks

If someone can't get a mortgage in a few weeks then drawing one down now doesn't seem like a fabulous idea, does it?

The Belly

Augeo wrote: »

If someone can't get a mortgage in a few weeks then drawing one down now doesn't seem like a fabulous idea, does it?

https://www.ft.com/content/711c5df2-695e-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3

ECB is finally beginning to realise the gravity of the situation.

If its a short shock we are experiencing maybe the mortgage market wont freeze up.

Until we see a leveling off and hopefully a reduction in new COV19 cases the uncertanity will continue.

Sheeps

Augeo wrote: »

If someone can't get a mortgage in a few weeks then drawing one down now doesn't seem like a fabulous idea, does it?

If your ability to pay is unaffected but the banks ability to lend is affected, how is that so?

accensi0n

Can you post a report with these statistics?
Seems incredible that it would be happening already, who files for divorce in this climate? Surely it wouldn't show up in any kind of report for at least another few months.

randoplh134 wrote: »

There is already statistics coming out now from countries who have been in lockdown of divorce rates and separations spiking due to people actually having to spend a lot of time together and they must have realized they are with the wrong person or would rather be single.

vmb

nerrad01 wrote: »

You havent sold anything until contracts are finalised. There is a once in a generation event unfolding that could result in a complete change in circumstance for the buyer. Why should they complete the sale if it negatively impacts them? you might find that long queue of buyers quickly disappearing.

We've finally received the contract signed by the buyer as we agreed. I'm quite happy and think the buyer will enjoy the house.

I've been a seller till now and now will be on the buyer side once the corona situation improves. It is unrealistic to think about a market crash in the short term as Dublin suffers a massive lack of supply. Prices are where they are only because LTV/LTI restrictions. If CB does not change these rules prices will not decrease.

On the other hand Ireland is responding to the coronavirus stronger than other countries so the economic downturn will be softer (so I hope)

If I was sale agreed (buying) now I would think twice before moving back. Our state agent said that now open views are cancelled, only "video visits". It is not be a demand problem only, the market is almost frozen. You can close your buy, but maybe you are losing a great opportunity. And rents are not cheap either...

randoplh134

accensi0n wrote: »

Can you post a report with these statistics?
Seems incredible that it would be happening already, who files for divorce in this climate? Surely it wouldn't show up in any kind of report for at least another few months.

https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-19-peak-divorce-rate-chinese-cities-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

Graham

randoplh134 wrote: »

https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-19-peak-divorce-rate-chinese-cities-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

On the basis of that article we should expect lots of couples to divorce and re-marry pretty quickly too.

First, offices have been closed for a month, so are likely be hit by a wave of delayed requests now that they've re-opened, the Global Times reported.

Secondly, many people have been quarantined in close quarters, creating an especially inflammatory environment for marital feuding.

Another officials told the Global Times that many couples regretted the procedure, which can be done much quicker in Xi'An than some other places — no more than 30 or 40 minutes. Han said many decided to remarry within hours.

randoplh134

vmb wrote: »

We've finally received the contract signed by the buyer as we agreed. I'm quite happy and think the buyer will enjoy the house.

I've been a seller till now and now will be on the buyer side once the corona situation improves. It is unrealistic to think about a market crash in the short term as Dublin suffers a massive lack of supply. Prices are where they are only because LTV/LTI restrictions. If CB does not change these rules prices will not decrease.

On the other hand Ireland is responding to the coronavirus stronger than other countries so the economic downturn will be softer (so I hope)

If I was sale agreed (buying) now I would think twice before moving back. Our state agent said that now open views are cancelled, only "video visits". It is not be a demand problem only, the market is almost frozen. You can close your buy, but maybe you are losing a great opportunity. And rents are not cheap either...

Congrats on the sale, you are now in a fantastic position to capitalize on the crash.

It is worth noting though that rents will likely crash quick as foreign workers who lose their job move home, foreign workers in tech who can work remotely will move back to their native country etc.

ZX7R

randoplh134 wrote: »

https://www.businessinsider.com/covid-19-peak-divorce-rate-chinese-cities-2020-3?r=US&IR=T

I can understand why though

awec

Divorce takes years in Ireland, it's a very big deal.

Sounds like it's quick and easy in China.

Even if there's a glut of falling out among couples here, it will be 3 or 4 years before there's any blip on the divorce stats.

Sheeps

Sheeps wrote: »

If your ability to pay is unaffected but the banks ability to lend is affected, how is that so?

So you think banks will be unable to lend in a few weeks?
How many can be sure there ability to pay will be unaffected?

Apologies........... you are buying with an exemption so no doubt you are what I'd consider a tad biased........ https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112872308&postcount=176

Sheeps

Augeo wrote: »

So you think banks will be unable to lend in a few weeks?
How many can be sure there ability to pay will be unaffected?

I think it's a possiblity that the banks wont be able to lend in a few weeks or months time.

I also think the demographics who are able to buy homes in this economy are also the ones capable of working from home, whose jobs are less threatened by this down turn, but none of these predictions are a sure thing, clearly.

The assertions I'm making is that buying a home right now is lower risk than not buying a home right now for a lot of people.

Mic 1972

Augeo wrote: »

Thousands (25345) of 2012 sales on the property price register.

when i said nobody i didn't mean zero, i though taht was a given

awec

On RTE now that the government are looking to outlaw evictions and rent increases for the next 3 months.

Also the big commercial landlords (IRIS REIT, Kennedy Wilson etc) are going to allow rent deferral.

Mic 1972

Mic 1972 wrote: »

when i said nobody i didn't mean zero, i though taht was a given

25K is fairly distant from zero.
500 sales a week on average.

Sheeps

Sheeps wrote: »

...........

I also think the demographics who are able to buy homes in this economy are also the ones capable of working from home, whose jobs are less threatened by this down turn, but none of these predictions are a sure thing, clearly.

The assertions I'm making is that buying a home right now is lower risk than not buying a home right now for a lot of people.

But that's from a very biased position.
If you were impartial you might take a different view.


Best of luck with your purchase