Property Market 2020

landofthetree

cnocbui wrote: »

Here we go again, with people having an expectation that a 'fair' price for a house is less than the cost of building it, with the land thrown in for free, of course.. Building new houses will stop and a lot of tradespeople will flee overseas looking for work, again. Ok, maybe that isn't quite what will happen in Dublin, but it could easily happen elsewhere, like it did before.

The surveyor firm's figures show the pure construction cost of an average estate home now runs at between €1,260 a sq m to €1,610 a sq m. Linesight bases its calculation on a 100sq m (1,076sq ft) dwelling, implying a total building cost of €126,000 to €161,000 for the average family home.Sep 11, 2018.


Land costs are a big part of the problem.

cnocbui

cnocbui wrote: »

Here we go again, with people having an expectation that a 'fair' price for a house is less than the cost of building it, with the land thrown in for free, of course.. Building new houses will stop and a lot of tradespeople will flee overseas looking for work, again. Ok, maybe that isn't quite what will happen in Dublin, but it could easily happen elsewhere, like it did before.

I'm not mentioning fair anything..... Just my view on what will happen.
Economy dips, house prices dip.

The economy has just tanked.... Hundreds of thousands going on social welfare.

landofthetree

https://mobile.twitter.com/Orla_Hegarty/status/1240287987054841858

Up to 4,900 homes on Airbnb in Dublin available (without tourists), + 000s more as students go online/leave city.. this will likely solve the rental crisis & bring down rents. Landlords would be wise to keep the tenants they’ve got

Saw an apartment in ashtown, Dublin 7 dropped 100,000 Euro today.
It was over priced at 315,000 I think, but a sign that if people want to sell, they will get out now asap.

cnocbui

landofthetree wrote: »

The surveyor firm's figures show the pure construction cost of an average estate home now runs at between €1,260 a sq m to €1,610 a sq m. Linesight bases its calculation on a 100sq m (1,076sq ft) dwelling, implying a total building cost of €126,000 to €161,000 for the average family home.Sep 11, 2018.


Land costs are a big part of the problem.

Augeo wrote: »

I'm not mentioning fair anything..... Just my view on what will happen.
Economy dips, house prices dip.

The economy has just tanked.... Hundreds of thousands going on social welfare.

Back in 2011, when we were still in the grips of the GFC, I had cause to value my house. I also had a look at the institute of chartered surveyors online calculator for replacement construction costs for insurance.

That calculator gave a replacement cost of just the house that was €60-€70K above the valuation for the entire property.

So had I sold the property for that amount, not only would the buyer get the building at a €60K discount, they would also get the land for free, the well for free, the paving, lawn, driveway shed, etc, etc, for free.

This would be why the sight of a new house being built around these parts was extremely rare for at least a decade.

I can understand market expectations of wanting 'cheap', but at significantly below base cost is taking the mickey.

This probably wouldn't apply to Dublin, but not all of country live in Dublin.

Things had improved to the point where the current value was actually slightly more than building replacement cost, but then this virus came along.

You need to lose the 'wanting cheap'& the 'taking the mickey' spiel.

The market will react..... Don't take it personally.

astrofool

Everything depends on COVID-19, if it retreats, then markets will burst back, and maybe overshoot, if it doesn't, then markets will freeze. Nobody has to sell right now, there won't be penalties for non-mortgage payments and not going through with probate, so everyone will wait, if you find someone stupid enough to sell at a knockdown price right now given the variables at play, go for it.

Heralding this as some sort of prediction based on housing alone is away with the fairies.

astrofool

astrofool wrote: »

Everything depends on COVID-19,.....

Profound stuff there.

cnocbui

Augeo wrote: »

You need to lose the 'wanting cheap'& the 'taking the mickey' spiel.

The market will react..... Don't take it personally.

I'll phrase things how I feel appropriate. The market, as you call it, seems no more mature on the part of potential buyers of houses than I have observed on Adverts.ie for items of considerably less value and importance, where I have found potential buyers to mostly be a bit strange.

What exposure to the market have you had in the last week?

Idbatterim

astrofool wrote: »

Everything depends on COVID-19, if it retreats, then markets will burst back, and maybe overshoot, if it doesn't, then markets will freeze. Nobody has to sell right now, there won't be penalties for non-mortgage payments and not going through with probate, so everyone will wait, if you find someone stupid enough to sell at a knockdown price right now given the variables at play, go for it.

Heralding this as some sort of prediction based on housing alone is away with the fairies.

Exactly! this is ireland, this isnt the states where the market will be saturated and people out on the streets after one missed mortgage payment!

cnocbui

Augeo wrote: »

What exposure to the market have you had in the last week?

The housing market; none, as I am not yet in a position to be putting my house up for sale.

I did manage to sell something on Adverts recently, which was your typical saga.

cnocbui

cnocbui wrote: »

I'll phrase things how I feel appropriate. The market, as you call it, seems no more mature on the part of potential buyers of houses than I have observed on Adverts.ie for items of considerably less value and importance, where I have found potential buyers to mostly be a bit strange.

cnocbui wrote: »

The housing market; none, as I am not yet in a position to be putting my house up for sale.

I did manage to sell something on Adverts recently, which was your typical saga.

You're not really in a position to comment so if you've had no exposure to buyers or the market

nerrad01

astrofool wrote: »

Everything depends on COVID-19, if it retreats, then markets will burst back, and maybe overshoot, if it doesn't, then markets will freeze. Nobody has to sell right now, there won't be penalties for non-mortgage payments and not going through with probate, so everyone will wait, if you find someone stupid enough to sell at a knockdown price right now given the variables at play, go for it.

Heralding this as some sort of prediction based on housing alone is away with the fairies.

covid is here forever, absolute best best case scenario we are looking at a lockdown of at least 3 months (which the economy cant handle), worst case who knows. It wont retreat, its here to stay until we have all developed immunity or a vaccine is developed.

cnocbui

Augeo wrote: »

You're not really in a position to comment so if you've had no exposure to buyers or the market

By getting a valuation, I am getting exposure to the market. Still I take your point, and am dreading the tyre kickers, should this virus catastrophe blow over rather than become entrenched like the GFC, and I put the house on offer.

astrofool

nerrad01 wrote: »

covid is here forever, absolute best best case scenario we are looking at a lockdown of at least 3 months (which the economy cant handle), worst case who knows. It wont retreat, its here to stay until we have all developed immunity or a vaccine is developed.

Vaccine about a year away, treatment, possibly before. Everything will freeze till then, nobody will want to buy or sell. IF this is the new normal (no mass gatherings, no jobs, no entertainment sector, no retail ad infinitum), then property prices will be the least of everybody's worries, we'll just take it off each other.

To see people parading around "I predicted this and COVID-19 is just a coincidence for the property market" are absolute charlatans.

astrofool

Augeo wrote: »

Profound stuff there.

Seriously? What of the property market today, is not dependent on it, don't be so simple, and please hang around when everything normalises (i.e. don't disappear to another username).

astrofool

astrofool wrote: »

......

To see people parading around "I predicted this and COVID-19 is just a coincidence for the property market" are absolute charlatans.

No-one can come out with that...... My 30% drop in house prices guess is based solely on covid19.

Stock market drop is also just down to covid19.

Hundreds of thousands out of work... Covid19. It's the only game in town.

smurgen

TheSheriff wrote: »

We are also going to wait it out for a while we think.

Our perception of what we think property is worth has radically changed in the past two weeks. Where once we thought we'd forever we confined to Dublin with our jobs, well remote working has potentially changed that.

Its a stark realization actually, one that I think many people will have.

This time two weeks ago I was wiling to hand over 500k for a small house in Castleknock, now we are thinking maybe not, maybe we find a company in the future which will facilitate remote working and we just get out of Dublin totally.

One thing Covid-19 is doing is providing plenty of room to think!

Exactly this. Add to the fact that the national broadband plan is aimed to facilitate super fast connection all over Ireland and you can see house prices dropping rapidly in cities and commuter towns.

smurgen

astrofool wrote: »

Everything depends on COVID-19, if it retreats, then markets will burst back, and maybe overshoot, if it doesn't, then markets will freeze. Nobody has to sell right now, there won't be penalties for non-mortgage payments and not going through with probate, so everyone will wait, if you find someone stupid enough to sell at a knockdown price right now given the variables at play, go for it.

Heralding this as some sort of prediction based on housing alone is away with the fairies.

What about someone coming to retirement who's pension pot is lining up for an almighty whack? Who may be living in a house too big for them?

The Belly

smurgen wrote: »

What about someone coming to retirement who's pension pot is lining up for an almighty whack? Who may be living in a house too big for them?

The standard investment strategy used in the pensions industry is a default one. This reduces exposure to equities in the 5-10 years before retirement by moving a % of the fund to cash automatically to avoid the scenario you mentioned above.

The only ones at risk are those who must buy a annuity on retirement and have large exposure to equities,Bonds etc.

smurgen

The Belly wrote: »

The standard investment strategy used in the pensions industry is a default one. This reduces exposure to equities in the 5-10 years before retirement by moving a % of the fund to cash automatically to avoid the scenario you mentioned above.

The only ones at risk are those who must buy a annuity on retirement and have large exposure to equities,Bonds etc.

Even gold is down right now.

The Belly

smurgen wrote: »

Even gold is down right now.

Paper gold is down real gold cant be found to order without waiting.
Dow Jones is down over 30% since January Gold is down around 3-4%.
Gold is not normally used in pension portfolios for your over the counter pension.

Deco99

Got outbid on house 4 weeks ago 245 v 240 eventually. The 240 was easily 25k over what we valued it at but circumstances meant we were willing to push to 240 and reduce renovation budget. Last week we get notice, the original bidder pulled out. We said 200, they said 230 or goin back on market. Came back last Friday accepted 200. It's probate and 100k would make it top notch. So repayments will be same as rent now. Realistically, once survey back is there any point trying to renegotiate down for the sake of it?

The Belly

Deco99 wrote: »

Got outbid on house 4 weeks ago 245 v 240 eventually. The 240 was easily 25k over what we valued it at but circumstances meant we were willing to push to 240 and reduce renovation budget. Last week we get notice, the original bidder pulled out. We said 200, they said 230 or goin back on market. Came back last Friday accepted 200. It's probate and 100k would make it top notch. So repayments will be same as rent now. Realistically, once survey back is there any point trying to renegotiate down for the sake of it?

Wait and see what happens between now and then.

With probate the beneficiary's probably what cash now which buts you in the driving seat to drive a hard bargain.

Padre_Pio

Deco99 wrote: »

Got outbid on house 4 weeks ago 245 v 240 eventually. The 240 was easily 25k over what we valued it at but circumstances meant we were willing to push to 240 and reduce renovation budget. Last week we get notice, the original bidder pulled out. We said 200, they said 230 or goin back on market. Came back last Friday accepted 200. It's probate and 100k would make it top notch. So repayments will be same as rent now. Realistically, once survey back is there any point trying to renegotiate down for the sake of it?

Saved you 5 or 6 years of mortgage payments there :eek::eek:

PommieBast

bubblypop wrote: »

Saw an apartment in ashtown, Dublin 7 dropped 100,000 Euro today.
It was over priced at 315,000 I think, but a sign that if people want to sell, they will get out now asap.

€315k maybe for something in Smithfield, but certainly not Ashtown..

lawred2

handlemaster wrote: »

With Brexit wrapped up end of jan and the main negotiations starting after .. would be interesting to see where the market goes

Lol

lawred2

Deco99 wrote: »

Got outbid on house 4 weeks ago 245 v 240 eventually. The 240 was easily 25k over what we valued it at but circumstances meant we were willing to push to 240 and reduce renovation budget. Last week we get notice, the original bidder pulled out. We said 200, they said 230 or goin back on market. Came back last Friday accepted 200. It's probate and 100k would make it top notch. So repayments will be same as rent now. Realistically, once survey back is there any point trying to renegotiate down for the sake of it?

Can't believe anyone is selling right now

Deco99

Deco99 wrote: »

Realistically, once survey back is there any point trying to renegotiate down for the sake of it?

Yup, most definitely.