Property Market 2020

Zenify

lawred2 wrote: »

Can't believe anyone is selling right now

With massive job losses and a recession on the way? Get out when you can. Everyone I know who is buying has pulled out. The sellers are desperate, the buyers not so much.

ittakestwo

lawred2 wrote: »

Can't believe anyone is selling right now

Maybe they want to get out now as they believe it will fall further.

Prices fell between 2007 and 2012 in last the recession. One thing we learned was that the sellers who reacted quickly and reduced the asking prices quickly sold. The stubborn seller who could not accept the fact prices were falling and did not reduce the asking quick enough or by amounts constantly behind the curb, took years to sell with multiple reductions.

lawred2

Zenify wrote: »

With massive job losses and a recession on the way? Get out when you can. Everyone I know who is buying has pulled out. The sellers are desperate, the buyers not so much.

And do what? Get out now and do what?

This isn't a crisis of fiscal origins. There's no knowing where this ends.

Although if it's selling investment/rental properties then I get it.

lawred2

lawred2 wrote: »

And do what? Get out now and do what?........

Thousands of properties changed hands in 2010, 2011 and 2012. What did all of the sellers do? Who knows.

randoplh134

bubblypop wrote: »

Saw an apartment in ashtown, Dublin 7 dropped 100,000 Euro today.
It was over priced at 315,000 I think, but a sign that if people want to sell, they will get out now asap.

This is just the start of it.

randoplh134

Augeo wrote: »

No-one can come out with that...... My 30% drop in house prices guess is based solely on covid19.

Stock market drop is also just down to covid19.

Hundreds of thousands out of work... Covid19. It's the only game in town.

The underlying issues of the 08 were never addresses, the global economy was simply sedated with QE and insanely low interest rate reduction for an excessive amount of time.

Covid19 was the catalyst but a crash was inevitable, the virus has just sped up the process. A crash was likely after the US election this year imo.

lawred2

randoplh134 wrote: »

This is just the start of it.

Will banks start reconsidering loan approvals now given there will be evidence of sharp drops in real selling prices?

I certainly wouldn't be happy being a buyer with ten percent deposit sitting with a developer waiting for completion!

randoplh134

Augeo wrote: »

Thousands of properties changed hands in 2010, 2011 and 2012. What did all of the sellers do? Who knows.

Live at home for a year if possible, house share for a year, pick up a significantly reduced rental in a few months and wait it out. Your future self will thank you from a financial standpoint.

Stark

bubbypop wrote:

Saw an apartment in ashtown, Dublin 7 dropped 100,000 Euro today.
It was over priced at 315,000 I think, but a sign that if people want to sell, they will get out now asap.

Looking at that one now. That one was crazy crazy overpriced at 315k to begin with for what looked like quite a drab 1 bed apartment. Much nicer 1 beds were on sale in the same area for closer to the 200k mark. Even 2 beds in the same complex were 260k to 285k.

randoplh134

lawred2 wrote: »

Will banks start reconsidering loan approvals now given there will be evidence of sharp drops in real selling prices?

I certainly wouldn't be happy being a buyer with ten percent deposit sitting with a developer waiting for completion!

Imo those type of buyers shouldn't be approved to begin with.

The financially prudent who have a good deposit and solid financial statements will always get approved regardless of the economic climate, the only variable here is the amount the bank is willing to lend.

I couldn't see banks rejecting many approvals at the moment, only those who they would now consider " high risk ".

randoplh134

randoplh134 wrote: »

Live at home for a year if possible, house share for a year, pick up a significantly reduced rental in a few months and wait it out. Your future self will thank you from a financial standpoint.

Are you moving on with the folks yourself?

awec

lawred2 wrote: »

Will banks start reconsidering loan approvals now given there will be evidence of sharp drops in real selling prices?

I certainly wouldn't be happy being a buyer with ten percent deposit sitting with a developer waiting for completion!

If the arse falls out of it they will certainly cut lending. That’s what causes prices to drop, a drop in demand.

Consider there are 5 posters on here wanting to buy a house. They’re all competing right now, so prices stay up. At the moment they are all saying wait, wait, we’ll pick up bargains if we wait.

What actually happens when the arse falls out of is two of them will probably get a cheaper house and the other 3 will get nothing. They’ll be taken out of the market because they can’t get a mortgage any more, or they can no longer get a mortgage to a level that’ll buy them what they need.

The reality where everyone who waits gets a bargain doesn’t exist. That implies constant demand, and if there’s constant demand there’ll be no bargains anywhere. Ireland hasn’t got a load of surplus stock like the last time.

awec

awec wrote: »

............

What actually happens when the arse falls out of is two of them will probably get a cheaper house and the other 3 will get nothing. They’ll be taken out of the market because they can’t get a mortgage any more, or they can no longer get a mortgage to a level that’ll buy them what they need...............

Probably with good reason, if they buy now they could be well fooked in the future.

lawred2

randoplh134 wrote: »

Imo those type of buyers shouldn't be approved to begin with.

The financially prudent who have a good deposit and solid financial statements will always get approved regardless of the economic climate, the only variable here is the amount the bank is willing to lend.

I couldn't see banks rejecting many approvals at the moment, only those who they would now consider " high risk ".

That's sh*t talk. They got approval based on deposits, savings records and solid bank statements. This isn't 2006. Banks are not approving lending to the fiscally reckless.

lawred2

lawred2 wrote: »

That's sh*t talk. They got approval based on deposits, savings records and solid bank statements. This isn't 2006. Banks are not approving lending to the fiscally reckless.

It's not really.
Borrowing 90% of a property is quite risky ....... especially in the current time. Loony really.
I've done it myself in my younger days, never again.

Interested Observer

awec wrote: »

The reality where everyone who waits gets a bargain doesn’t exist. That implies constant demand, and if there’s constant demand there’ll be no bargains anywhere. Ireland hasn’t got a load of surplus stock like the last time.

I've been reading this forum for a long time now, I've found some very useful information on here and it certainly helped me along in buying my own house, but for as long as I've been here people have been waiting for and hoping for this magical recession to come along that tanks house prices but leaves them somehow untouched to go and pick up a bargain. As you say, it's a fantasy. The figures are all available for the number of approvals given and houses bought during our last recession for anyone who wants to read them.

lawred2

Augeo wrote: »

It's not really.
Borrowing 90% of a property is quite risky ....... especially in the current time. Loony really.
I've done it myself in my younger days, never again.

That's a separate point. That's from the borrowers point of view. At this point in time. Not at the point in time when they were approved.

What I responded to was the blanket statement that those borrowers should not have been approved to begin with.

As if everyone can tell the future. They were approved based on income, savings and current account management i.e. what was taken to be considered as the fiscally prudent. That was before COVID19. Now they are the fiscally reckless.

Typical barstool hindsight to then turn around in a crisis and say that they shouldn't have been approved to begin with.

So yeah... Complete sh!t talk.

awec

People can make up their own minds on whether or not to buy right now. Everyone's circumstances are different, there's no one-size-fits-all answer here.

My point is waiting is not without risk. You need to accept that if you wait, you could be waiting for years. You could be sitting in 5 years time still not owning your home. For many, this will be the reality in the case of a collapse. This might be fine if you're young, single, socially-mobile etc. If you're married with a family, school requirements, middle aged etc then there are lots of other considerations that will need to be made. There are lots of other stresses that are not financial that will play into the decision.

Mic 1972

bubblypop wrote:

Saw an apartment in ashtown, Dublin 7 dropped 100,000 Euro today.
It was over priced at 315,000 I think, but a sign that if people want to sell, they will get out now asap.

I saw it too, it looks like a mistake. Any other 1-bed apartment in the area is set at around 200K

Idbatterim

Once enough people decide to shelve house buying and act like a herd , it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy on price drops ... if i were a seller now , not in a chain. I’d be trying to get out right now, even if it means knocking a few percent off. Another poster summed it up well a few posts back

Idbatterim

Idbatterim wrote: »

Once enough people decide to shelve house buying and act like a herd , it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy on price drops............

That's how markets work.
But it's inevitably going to happen.

randoplh134

lawred2 wrote: »

That's sh*t talk. They got approval based on deposits, savings records and solid bank statements. This isn't 2006. Banks are not approving lending to the fiscally reckless.

People should not use emotion when making one of the biggest financial decisions of their life. Logic and rationale is needed now more than ever, if someone is jumping into a mortgage now with only a 10% deposit, they are clearly desperate and are better off waiting for a bargain.

voluntary

PropertyPriceRegister is the only (somewhat) reliable source of price data which should be used for comparisons. Asking prices are whatever people wish to put in them. Advertising a small apt for 1M and then reducing the price by 100k doesn't make it a bargain.

In regards to similar apartments there may be significant differences in demand and therefore price depending on a specific apt position (north facing are generally cheaper). In regards to Ashtown I know many of these apartments do not have gas connection available so you can get these cheaper too as the demand for such is lower.

Rock77

So myself and my wife are on track to have a 10% deposit saved by September this year.

3 bed semi at the moment will cost us around 300,000.

Should I be worried about no longer being able to get a mortgage or excited that house prices will drop considerably.

We will have a very good savings record, our finances look good.

Obviously this all depends on us getting through this with our jobs, which I think we will.

The Belly

awec wrote: »

People can make up their own minds on whether or not to buy right now. Everyone's circumstances are different, there's no one-size-fits-all answer here.

My point is waiting is not without risk. You need to accept that if you wait, you could be waiting for years. You could be sitting in 5 years time still not owning your home. For many, this will be the reality in the case of a collapse. This might be fine if you're young, single, socially-mobile etc. If you're married with a family, school requirements, middle aged etc then there are lots of other considerations that will need to be made. There are lots of other stresses that are not financial that will play into the decision.

If you tease the last paragraph out further down the line it will probably mean a major social house building program like the 80's. The two biggest issues in the election were health and housing.

We have a housing homeless and rental crisis as it is before Cov19.

Housing lists are 10 years long with a country that had nearly full employment.

Rents are completely unaffordable in most places as it is.

The fundemental issues which caused our dysfunctional property market were not dealt with over the last 10 years.

No lessons were learnt from the proprty crash. The government could have gone on a mass building program with money borrowed at near-zero rates to take some of the steam out of the market.

The government approach to let the private market sort it out while competing with buyers for private housing to supply social housing only exacerbated the increase in prices and increase in demand for HAP.

If we are looking at a prolonged downturn with very high unemployment anyone with a house that doesnt have to sell won't. New builds will cease.

Banks will say they are open for business and lending but as before this will be optics only. They will shore up their balance sheets again as most are still not function properly since the last crash.

House prices will fall but there wont be a lot of people in a position to buy.

The new working poor will join the demand for social housing.

Emigration wont provide the valve it did in the past as each country will have its own problems.

Pressure for social housing will explode as those born in the 70s and 80's are getting closer to retirement with no prospect of owning a house or any security for the future.

This will be reflected in the voting public as we saw in the last election results.

randoplh134

Rock77 wrote: »

So myself and my wife are on track to have a 10% deposit saved by September this year.

3 bed semi at the moment will cost us around 300,000.

Should I be worried about no longer being able to get a mortgage or excited that house prices will drop considerably.

We will have a very good savings record, our finances look good.

Obviously this all depends on us getting through this with our jobs, which I think we will.

3 bed semi for 300k is insane imo. You will get a 3 bed in a decent area for much lower than that this time next year.

The Belly

The Belly wrote: »

.......... 70s and 80's are getting closer to retirement with no prospect of owning a house or any security for the future..........

Most of those born in the 70s likely own their own home.

Rock77

randoplh134 wrote: »

3 bed semi for 300k is insane imo. You will get a 3 bed in a decent area for much lower than that this time next year.

We want to buy in the town where we both grew up. We could possibly get something for 260,000ish

Any idea what measures the banks will be more strict about when the crap really hits the fan? Do you think house prices will go down by Sept/Oct this year?

awec

The Belly wrote: »

If you tease the last paragraph out further down the line it will probably mean a major social house building program like the 80's. The two biggest issues in the election were health and housing.

We have a housing homeless and rental crisis as it is before Cov19.

Housing lists are 10 years long with a country that had nearly full employment.

Rents are completely unaffordable in most places as it is.

The fundemental issues which caused our dysfunctional property market were not dealt with over the last 10 years.

No lessons were learnt from the proprty crash. The government could have gone on a mass building program with money borrowed at near-zero rates to take some of the steam out of the market.

The government approach to let the private market sort it out while competing with buyers for private housing to supply social housing only exacerbated the increase in prices and increase in demand for HAP.

If we are looking at a prolonged downturn with very high unemployment anyone with a house that doesnt have to sell won't. New builds will cease.

Banks will say they are open for business and lending but as before this will be optics only. They will shore up their balance sheets again as most are still not function properly since the last crash.

House prices will fall but there wont be a lot of people in a position to buy.

The new working poor will join the demand for social housing.

Emigration wont provide the valve it did in the past as each country will have its own problems.

Pressure for social housing will explode as those born in the 70s and 80's are getting closer to retirement with no prospect of owning a house or any security for the future.

This will be reflected in the voting public as we saw in the last election results.

Good post, this is the risk I am talking about. It is absolutely not as clear cut as "just wait, buy a bargain".

People are going to have to choose between potentially overpaying for a house now, or potentially not having the security of home ownership for a long time, possibly never. Yes, there will be some lucky people who do pick things up on the cheap, but the majority don't get lucky.

awec

randoplh134 wrote: »

3 bed semi for 300k is insane imo. You will get a 3 bed in a decent area for much lower than that this time next year.

Depends on the house, the area etc.

"X price for Y house is insane" is too simplistic.