Property Market 2020

bluelamp

voluntary wrote: »

There's however a huge bubble in the rental sector. A bubble ready to burst.

Sort the daft listings by most recent in Dublin city for sharing, and renting.

Rents have already fallen the last two weeks.

A massive amount of Airbnb's coming back to the rental market, obvious from the perfectly made beds, rolled up towels, and bowls of fruit in the photos. With Irish rental laws, they arent likely to become airbnb's again once they have permanent tenants in them.

All the colleges are closed, there are over 10,000 students from outside the EU enrolling in education here every year - I'd imagine a large percentage of them have gone back home.

I dont see another influx of 10,000 this September - how many student accomodation bedrooms were added to the market this year? 1000's?

Irish students in Dublin are also all heading home now that college is closed, a lot will be breaking their leases early, especially if their parents are under financial pressure now.

We could have an exodus of south Americans too I think - they've no entitlement to social welfare, mainly work in restaurants / bars / hotels and their english language schools are closed. There are over 15,000 Brazilians in ireland - I dont know how many from other south american countries.

A lot of Americans have gone home (temporarily for most maybe) - there seems to be a lot of fear that if they don't leave soon, they will end up stuck here when flights stop. I'd imagine a lot wont bother returning.

I also think a lot of people / companies trying out working from home for the first time, could realise the merits of it - and it may become much more common in the future, allowing people to work outside of Dublin.

The tourism industry on its knees means we will have a surplus of hotel rooms too which will probably push more Airbnb's back into the rental market too.

Things arent looking too rosy for Dublins rental market unless we get some good news about this virus very soon.

The Belly

JJJackal wrote: »

Its worth noting a lot of landlords with longterm tenants have below market rents already - they will not be reducing rents or offering reduced rates

They won't have a choice if their tenant cant pay. Rent will be what ever the government pay in supports such as HAP while this situation continues.

JJJackal

The Belly wrote: »

They won't have a choice if their tenant cant pay. Rent will be what ever the government pay in supports such as HAP while this situation continues.

Of course they will have a choice... the rent freeze or not evict if cant pay set up will not continue for ever.

The Belly

JJJackal wrote: »

Of course they will have a choice... the rent freeze or not evict if cant pay set up will not continue for ever.

And who is going to enforce it during this crisis?

Donald Trump

The Belly wrote: »

They won't have a choice if their tenant cant pay. Rent will be what ever the government pay in supports such as HAP while this situation continues.

I'd reckon there might be a few landlords, stuck with rents capped below a relatively low ceiling, hoping that the tenants will default so that they can get them out finally................

JJJackal

The Belly wrote: »

And who is going to enforce it during this crisis?

No one. But they will be evicted immediately after

Assetbacked

bluelamp wrote: »

Sort the daft listings by most recent in Dublin city for sharing, and renting.

Rents have already fallen the last two weeks.

A massive amount of Airbnb's coming back to the rental market, obvious from the perfectly made beds, rolled up towels, and bowls of fruit in the photos. With Irish rental laws, they arent likely to become airbnb's again once they have permanent tenants in them.

All the colleges are closed, there are over 10,000 students from outside the EU enrolling in education here every year - I'd imagine a large percentage of them have gone back home.

I dont see another influx of 10,000 this September - how many student accomodation bedrooms were added to the market this year? 1000's?

Irish students in Dublin are also all heading home now that college is closed, a lot will be breaking their leases early, especially if their parents are under financial pressure now.

We could have an exodus of south Americans too I think - they've no entitlement to social welfare, mainly work in restaurants / bars / hotels and their english language schools are closed. There are over 15,000 Brazilians in ireland - I dont know how many from other south american countries.

A lot of Americans have gone home (temporarily for most maybe) - there seems to be a lot of fear that if they don't leave soon, they will end up stuck here when flights stop. I'd imagine a lot wont bother returning.

I also think a lot of people / companies trying out working from home for the first time, could realise the merits of it - and it may become much more common in the future, allowing people to work outside of Dublin.

The tourism industry on its knees means we will have a surplus of hotel rooms too which will probably push more Airbnb's back into the rental market too.

Things arent looking too rosy for Dublins rental market unless we get some good news about this virus very soon.

This is a good summary of the economic reality in Dublin as it impacts the rental market.

On the South Americans point, most are English language students who, like you said, have no entitlement to benefits. They work part time jobs in cafes, pubs, shops etc. so their lack of work will not be a cost to the State as they are likely to just go home instead of staying in Ireland. As such, the demand from them for rentals is likely to stay down for quite some time.

Knex*

Sheeps wrote: »

This guy telling people to sell their property now, and also for people not to buy property now. You couldn't make it up.

But that does make sense. Don't think it's as contradictory as you think.

It's a pretty consistent message, if you think prices will fall. Just depends what side of the coin you're on.

Claw Hammer

Assetbacked wrote: »

This is a good summary of the economic reality in Dublin as it impacts the rental market.

On the South Americans point, most are English language students who, like you said, have no entitlement to benefits. They work part time jobs in cafes, pubs, shops etc. so their lack of work will not be a cost to the State as they are likely to just go home instead of staying in Ireland. As such, the demand from them for rentals is likely to stay down for quite some time.

Some of them are getting €203 week while unemployed and can't go home to their own countries because of the virus anyway.

TheSheriff

Spoke to a friend yesterday based in Cork who deals with EAs quite a bit for work - no surprise but he told me people are pulling out of sales all over the county.

We've decided to park our search for now I think.

We followed up with one EA we had an offer (below asking) in with yesterday to see if the vendor wanted to proceed and he mentioned if we added 10k to our bid they would....... I couldn't not be rude on the phone and asked was he joking...risky business on their part, good luck to them.

Mic 1972

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Some of them are getting €203 week while unemployed and can't go home to their own countries because of the virus anyway.

People can go back to their countries if they want to, governments can arrange for that. We flew back Irish people from Wuhan

LuckyLloyd

lcwill wrote: »

Rents won't fall unless the government removes the RPZ restrictions. Landlords will be very reluctant to accept a lower rent if they never know when they will be able to increase it again - and it has a direct impact on the value of their property (lots of daft ads now have the current rent indicated in them, or say they are not subject to restrictions).

Landlords being very reluctant will have nothing to do with it.

Villa05

Graham wrote:

31 billion at the peak to 2 billion.

Comparing borrowing at the top of a bubble to when the bubble burst is not comparing like with like

tobsey wrote:

There's no way property values can fall much without rent falling considerably also. Otherwise property would be the goose laying the golden egg for investors with double digit yields each year.

Rents will fall considerably. It is the sectors that are traditional renters that are most affected by c virus lay offs. Leverage is also an issue with reits which may lead to fire sales of investment apartments.

voluntary wrote:

Well, the 150.000 or so who have already been layed off will certainly not be buying anytime soon.

Or paying extortionate rents

Mic 1972 wrote:

Honestly, people have a right to do AirBnBs with their own houses if they want, any other country in Europe allows that no probs Why should the gvmt stop that?

It is illegal to rent out a 2nd property on air bnb in a rpz. Hopefully the regulator will be keeping an eye on the huge increase in rentals since the air bnb market disappeared with a view towards prosecution where appropiate

Mic 1972 wrote:

Construction will surely slow down and then stop until prices recover.

When this is all over Governments will be looking at projects that can help reboot the economy. For Ireland the obvious answer is to fix the housing supply/demand imbalance.
A cost neutral project that could derive a new income stream for the state long into the future.
Reduce congestion on our motorways.

Generate greater revenue on our public transport networks

Help meet our carbon emmissions targets thus reducing/eliminating large fines

Lower rents so that people have more to spend in the wider economy.

Build at a time when land labour and capital is cheap locking in savings long into the future

Housing a major issue in last election so significant political capital

Lower housing costs would allow people to consider extra pension contributions thus reducing the bill in future

The benefits to the economy of affordable housing costs are too numerous to mention. I'd need to write a book to mention them all

LuckyLloyd

TheSheriff wrote: »

Spoke to a friend yesterday based in Cork who deals with EAs quite a bit for work - no surprise but he told me people are pulling out of sales all over the county.

We've decided to park our search for now I think.

We followed up with one EA we had an offer (below asking) in with yesterday to see if the vendor wanted to proceed and he mentioned if we added 10k to our bid they would....... I couldn't not be rude on the phone and asked was he joking...risky business on their part, good luck to them.

Aha that’s hilarious. Reality takes a while dawning on people.

James 007

TheSheriff wrote: »

Spoke to a friend yesterday based in Cork who deals with EAs quite a bit for work - no surprise but he told me people are pulling out of sales all over the county.

We've decided to park our search for now I think.

We followed up with one EA we had an offer (below asking) in with yesterday to see if the vendor wanted to proceed and he mentioned if we added 10k to our bid they would....... I couldn't not be rude on the phone and asked was he joking...risky business on their part, good luck to them.

You should of said I'll raise you 10k, but I will drop 110k, is it a deal!!

dasdog

Villa05 wrote: »

Hopefully the regulator will be keeping an eye on the huge increase in rentals since the air bnb market disappeared with a view towards prosecution where appropiate

I doubt it. The Revenue Commissioners however are a part of the state institution that actually function.

The Belly

Villa05 wrote: »

Comparing borrowing at the top of a bubble to when the bubble burst is not comparing like with like


Rents will fall considerably. It is the sectors that are traditional renters that are most affected by c virus lay offs. Leverage is also an issue with reits which may lead to fire sales of investment apartments.


Or paying extortionate rents



It is illegal to rent out a 2nd property on air bnb in a rpz. Hopefully the regulator will be keeping an eye on the huge increase in rentals since the air bnb market disappeared with a view towards prosecution where appropiate



When this is all over Governments will be looking at projects that can help reboot the economy. For Ireland the obvious answer is to fix the housing supply/demand imbalance.
A cost neutral project that could derive a new income stream for the state long into the future.
Reduce congestion on our motorways.

Generate greater revenue on our public transport networks

Help meet our carbon emmissions targets thus reducing/eliminating large fines

Lower rents so that people have more to spend in the wider economy.

Build at a time when land labour and capital is cheap locking in savings long into the future

Housing a major issue in last election so significant political capital

Lower housing costs would allow people to consider extra pension contributions thus reducing the bill in future

The benefits to the economy of affordable housing costs are too numerous to mention. I'd need to write a book to mention them all

Agreed. They of course should have done this is the last downturn.

Public infastructure projects are the way to go.

No privatising projects or public private deals. Profits from them can be recycled into new projects and into the pension reserve fund or subsidise projects that will never make a profit but are neccessary for the social benefit they provide.

It would be nice to know when you pay your motorway tolls etc. the profits are ultimately paying your OACP down the road.

They could start by finishing the M8

cnocbui

The Belly wrote: »

Agreed. They of course should have done this is the last downturn.

Public infastructure projects are the way to go.

No privatising projects or public private deals. Profits from them can be recycled into new projects and into the pension reserve fund or subsidise projects that will never make a profit but are neccessary for the social benefit they provide.

It would be nice to know when you pay your motorway tolls etc. the profits are ultimately paying your OACP down the road.

They could start by finishing the M8

Tolls would go to paying current pensions, not yours. Governments don't save money, they spend it all and then borrow more. I'd rather they build a major hospital in Limerick which they should have done a decade ago, rather than spend more money on motorways that are mostly empty by European standards.

Claw Hammer

Mic 1972 wrote: »

People can go back to their countries if they want to, governments can arrange for that. We flew back Irish people from Wuhan

Not every government is bothered to do it. There are many Irish people trying to get home at the moment from various places around the world. For people to be flown home directly flights departing from the place where they are towards Ireland or at least Europe. You might not have noticed, but airlines are cancelling flights all over and there are queues to get the airports. If people land in one country do not allowed leave to go on to their home country. It would be very foolish person who would try to get to the far side of the world by air at the moment.

Mic 1972

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Not every government is bothered to do it. There are many Irish people trying to get home at the moment from various places around the world. For people to be flown home directly flights departing from the place where they are towards Ireland or at least Europe. You might not have noticed, but airlines are cancelling flights all over and there are queues to get the airports. If people land in one country do not allowed leave to go on to their home country. It would be very foolish person who would try to get to the far side of the world by air at the moment.

There are also Irish people currently living in countries where the infection is not as bad as here, they might not even want to come back

PommieBast

cudsy1 wrote: »

i havent seen any mention of brexit here since the crisis hit - does anyone think that might affect the property market over the next 6-18 months?

Issue with quality housing is one of the reasons why Ireland actually did quite poorly in attracting Brexit-related relocations.

Assetbacked

PommieBast wrote: »

Issue with quality housing is one of the reasons why Ireland actually did quite poorly in attracting Brexit-related relocations.

The issue with Brexit is that, four years later, it still hasn't happened and a further extension is likely to occur beyond this year, bringing it to five years post-referendum. It will be time to have a Brexit confirmation referendum at that point!

riddles

Assetbacked wrote: »

The issue with Brexit is that, four years later, it still hasn't happened and a further extension is likely to occur beyond this year, bringing it to five years post-referendum. It will be time to have a Brexit confirmation referendum at that point!

It has happened officially, the official details on how the EU and Britain will engage is to be worked out this year. The impending financial implosion may make those discussions secondary in the medium term.

Following a general election, Parliament ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. ... The UK remains subject to EU law and remains part of the EU customs union and single market during the transition, but is no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.

Assetbacked

riddles wrote: »

It has happened officially, the official details on how the EU and Britain will engage is to be worked out this year. The impending financial implosion may make those discussions secondary in the medium term.

Following a general election, Parliament ratified the withdrawal agreement, and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020. ... The UK remains subject to EU law and remains part of the EU customs union and single market during the transition, but is no longer part of the EU's political bodies or institutions.

Yeah, it has happened in name only. It's still an ongoing limbo situation until the Brits grow a pair and take the plunge, have a confirmation referendum (yes or no) or agree the FTA. Coming up to five years post-referendum is definitely a justifiable time to start wondering if enough time has passed to re-consider the whole thing. It's a whole generation in politics!

Villa05

The Belly wrote:

Agreed. They of course should have done this is the last downturn.

The Belly wrote:

Public infastructure projects are the way to go.

We were not able do it last time as we were literally bankrupt from property. We remain in serious trouble.

It is leprechaun economics and near zero interest rates that have kept our heads over water for the last 10 years and ironically reversed corrective actions taken after the last crash. If interest rates were at normal this country would be a very different place

Any state projects must be profitable that's why housing in high demand areas must be top of the list

landofthetree

We dont need to build any new houses.

After this crisis demand will be gone.

The_Conductor

landofthetree wrote: »

We dont need to build any new houses.

After this crisis demand will be gone.

That is an incredibly depressing way to look at things.

landofthetree

Villa05 wrote: »

Comparing borrowing at the top of a bubble to when the bubble burst is not comparing like with like


Rents will fall considerably. It is the sectors that are traditional renters that are most affected by c virus lay offs. Leverage is also an issue with reits which may lead to fire sales of investment apartments.


Or paying extortionate rents



It is illegal to rent out a 2nd property on air bnb in a rpz. Hopefully the regulator will be keeping an eye on the huge increase in rentals since the air bnb market disappeared with a view towards prosecution where appropiate



When this is all over Governments will be looking at projects that can help reboot the economy. For Ireland the obvious answer is to fix the housing supply/demand imbalance.
A cost neutral project that could derive a new income stream for the state long into the future.
Reduce congestion on our motorways.

Generate greater revenue on our public transport networks

Help meet our carbon emmissions targets thus reducing/eliminating large fines

Lower rents so that people have more to spend in the wider economy.

Build at a time when land labour and capital is cheap locking in savings long into the future

Housing a major issue in last election so significant political capital

Lower housing costs would allow people to consider extra pension contributions thus reducing the bill in future

The benefits to the economy of affordable housing costs are too numerous to mention. I'd need to write a book to mention them all

There wont be a demand.

When the crisis is over people will have no jobs to go back to. Auz,NZ,Canada etc will all recover much quicker and hundreds of thousands will leave again.

Mic 1972

landofthetree wrote: »

We dont need to build any new houses.

After this crisis demand will be gone.

yep

Sheeps

There may be a slight dent in demand for homes in this country. The only thing that will really change is the amount of people who ill be in a position to purchase a home will be significantly lower.