Property Market 2020

The Belly

Villa05 wrote: »

We were not able do it last time as we were literally bankrupt from property. We remain in serious trouble.

When we couldn't borrow money we couldn't do it.

Yield
0.987%
22 Mar 2020
13:15 GMT+0
Government Bond
Ireland
30 Years

We can now. 10 year fixed rates with the banks are around 3%.

In 2019 12,000 FTB mortgages drawn down were worth 2.7 Billion.

For example, with housing. The government starts a building program.
Take the house price for a 3-bed semi at €250,000

10% down and €225,000 over 30 years at a fixed rate of 3.5%

Repayment monthly €1,010.35

Cost of credit €138,726.20

Total repayable €388,726

Cost for State to service the debt of €225,000 at .0.987% x 30 years €66,625
Total cost €291,622

Profit to state €388,726- €291,622 = €97,104.

Over 30 years profit of 1.17 billion or 38.8M per year per 12k new units built at 250k.

This doesn’t include the stimulus that a large house building program would create for the economy.

It it clearly illustrates using just 12k houses or equivalent not only could the government solve the housing issue they could provide much needed stimulus for the country and create a growing income stream for the countries finances.

landofthetree

Sheeps wrote: »

There may be a slight dent in demand for homes in this country. The only thing that will really change is the amount of people who ill be in a position to purchase a home will be significantly lower.

A lot will leave.

Other countries like Australia will recover a lot faster.

Our high personal tax rates are a huge drag on the economy.

Other countries will still be building infrastructure as they have water charges and council taxes to fund it. Stuff off the balance sheet.



Plus they aren't as dependent on corpo tax.

PommieBast

Assetbacked wrote: »

Yeah, it has happened in name only. It's still an ongoing limbo situation until the Brits grow a pair and take the plunge, have a confirmation referendum (yes or no) or agree the FTA.

Pretty much anyone who has to plan ahead is using a no-deal exit as the working assumption.

landofthetree wrote: »

A lot will leave.

But will it be enough? Supply and demand are so out of line that it would require an absolute exodus..

El Gato De Negocios

landofthetree wrote: »

A lot will leave.

Other countries like Australia will recover a lot faster.

Our high personal tax rates are a huge drag on the economy.

Other countries will still be building infrastructure as they have water charges and council taxes to fund it. Stuff off the balance sheet.



Plus they aren't as dependent on corpo tax.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a bump on the USC again to make up what's going to be spent over the coming months.

Mic 1972

Sheeps wrote: »

There may be a slight dent in demand for homes in this country. The only thing that will really change is the amount of people who ill be in a position to purchase a home will be significantly lower.

it's the same thing.
Demand is created by people who are in a position to buy, not by those who wish to but have no money

Reversal

Mic 1972 wrote: »

it's the same thing.
Demand is created by people who are in a position to buy, not by those who wish to but have no money

However in this forum some people think that people wanting to buy is demand, regardless of their ability to do so. Hence why some struggle to understand why demand will drop in the next while.

"The value of my recently purchased new build could never go down because people still need somewhere to live"

Mic 1972

Reversal wrote: »

However in this forum some people think that people wanting to buy is demand, regardless of their ability to do so. Hence why some struggle to understand why demand will drop in the next while.

"The value of my recently purchased new build could never go down because people still need somewhere to live"

Correct
People often confuse need/desire with demand

IndieRoar111

Strange turn of events this evening.

I originally posted our situation in here and am grateful for the responses, long story short, we pulled out of a deal on a house that was 360k asking but we went sale agreed for 345k. Within the past hour we received an email from the estate agent informing us that the vendor would now accept 340k.

To me this seems very strange as we have been on the lookout for the past few months and normally find it hard to receive a response from a estate agent and now one emails us on a Sunday night.

We won't be going for the property at that price and are happy with our decision to pull out of the deal.

LuckyLloyd

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

Strange turn of events this evening.

I originally posted our situation in here and am grateful for the responses, long story short, we pulled out of a deal on a house that was 360k asking but we went sale agreed for 345k. Within the past hour we received an email from the estate agent informing us that the vendor would now accept 340k.

To me this seems very strange as we have been on the lookout for the past few months and normally find it hard to receive a response from a estate agent and now one emails us on a Sunday night.

We won't be going for the property at that price and are happy with our decision to pull out of the deal.

Offer 290k

beggars_bush

Reversal wrote: »

However in this forum some people think that people wanting to buy is demand, regardless of their ability to do so. Hence why some struggle to understand why demand will drop in the next while.

"The value of my recently purchased new build could never go down because people still need somewhere to live"

Some people are going to be saving like mad for the next 6 months - 12 months - No social spending, no extra shopping
Could be a lot more people in a position to buy

0gac3yjefb5sv7

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Offer 290k

To be fair, if the property has any demand at all...the seller will laugh and sell it to someone else for 340k or 320k.

Most properties that have any demand, you can't just offer 100k less as there will be an underbidder ready to go.

Mic 1972

beggars_bush wrote: »

Some people are going to be saving like mad for the next 6 months - 12 months - No social spending, no extra shopping
Could be a lot more people in a position to buy

The same people could have done that all along if they really wanted to buy a house instead of complaining about banks not lending more money
Sorry, not being smart at you, but i can't stand the attitude of wanting to buy something and making zero effort to save money for it

landofthetree

https://mobile.twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1241835731456110593


JUST IN: President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis says US unemployment in the second quarter of 2020 may reach 30%.

Gulp.

Sheeps

Mic 1972 wrote: »

it's the same thing.
Demand is created by people who are in a position to buy, not by those who wish to but have no money

Well then demand is ultra low at the minute and prices are high. No problem.

beggars_bush

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The same people could have done that all along if they really wanted to buy a house instead of complaining about banks not lending more money
Sorry, not being smart at you, but i can't stand the attitude of wanting to buy something and making zero effort to save money for it

Fully agreed

Eric Cartman

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The same people could have done that all along if they really wanted to buy a house instead of complaining about banks not lending more money
Sorry, not being smart at you, but i can't stand the attitude of wanting to buy something and making zero effort to save money for it

its pretty sad that people need the pubs to forcibly close to actually financially contribute to their future.

awec

Reversal wrote: »

However in this forum some people think that people wanting to buy is demand, regardless of their ability to do so. Hence why some struggle to understand why demand will drop in the next while.

"The value of my recently purchased new build could never go down because people still need somewhere to live"

Who thinks this? If house prices drop, it's because demand drops. That's just how it works, I don't think anyone is under any illusions otherwise. Certainly haven't seen any notion to the contrary in this forum.

If house prices are significantly cheaper 12 months from now it'll be because significantly less people will be in a position to buy a house 12 months from now.

We know almost certainly that supply is not going to increase. If anything supply is going to fall if the arse falls out of things. In order for there to be a price drop, demand is going to have to fall more than supply. That means, in the scenario of a market collapse, there are LOTS of people who are in a position to buy right now who are going to suddenly find themselves unable to buy.

If the arse falls out of it, there are going to be plenty of people who were looking at nice new houses in private developments this time last month adding their name to the social housing list.

smurgen

landofthetree wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1241835731456110593


JUST IN: President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis says US unemployment in the second quarter of 2020 may reach 30%.

Gulp.

Don't worry house prices are rock solid. We still don't have supply!

JamesMason

Mic 1972 wrote: »

yep

Spot on

JamesMason

awec wrote: »

Who thinks this? If house prices drop, it's because demand drops. That's just how it works, I don't think anyone is under any illusions otherwise. Certainly haven't seen any notion to the contrary in this forum.

If house prices are significantly cheaper 12 months from now it'll be because significantly less people will be in a position to buy a house 12 months from now.

We know almost certainly that supply is not going to increase. If anything supply is going to fall if the arse falls out of things. In order for there to be a price drop, demand is going to have to fall more than supply. That means, in the scenario of a market collapse, there are LOTS of people who are in a position to buy right now who are going to suddenly find themselves unable to buy.

If the arse falls out of it

...
Not if or when. It has happened.

LuckyLloyd

Pheonix10 wrote: »

To be fair, if the property has any demand at all...the seller will laugh and sell it to someone else for 340k or 320k.

Most properties that have any demand, you can't just offer 100k less as there will be an underbidder ready to go.

There will be no underbidders right now. I'd offer 70 - 80% of value if you were already sale agreed and if the seller is denying reality leave them to it and hold onto your cash.

coolshannagh28

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

There will be no underbidders right now. I'd offer 70 - 80% of value if you were already sale agreed and if the seller is denying reality leave them to it and hold onto your cash.

This is accurate , my sister has a house for sale at the minute and its tumbleweed on the streets.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

There will be no underbidders right now. I'd offer 70 - 80% of value if you were already sale agreed and if the seller is denying reality leave them to it and hold onto your cash.

Not the place I'm bidding on. The other bidder was 1k below me and 15k above asking....

garhjw

JamesMason wrote: »

...
Not if or when. It has happened.

nothing has happened yet. You haven’t got a clue what you’re talking about like the majority of people posting in this thread. Nobody knows what will happen over next 12 months.

sun0shine

I am in process of buying a new build house in commuter town ~360K range, loan offer in place but haven't signed contracts yet.
Certainly market is going to tumble..
Bargain on new build an option in this stage? or time to pull out?

garhjw

sun0shine wrote: »

I am in process of buying a new build house in commuter town ~360K range, loan offer in place but haven't signed contracts yet.
Certainly market is going to tumble..
Bargain on new build an option in this stage? or time to pull out?

I wouldn’t take the advice of anyone who posts in here. Some serious whackos....

q85dw7osi4lebg

garhjw wrote: »

I wouldn’t take the advice of anyone who posts in here. Some serious whackos....

Correct, 90% have never gone through the buying process.

theballz

garhjw wrote: »

nothing has happened yet. You haven’t got a clue what you’re talking about like the majority of people posting in this thread. Nobody knows what will happen over next 12 months.

Nothing has happened? Have you looked out the window the last month?

voluntary

sun0shine wrote: »

I am in process of buying a new build house in commuter town ~360K range, loan offer in place but haven't signed contracts yet.
Certainly market is going to tumble..
Bargain on new build an option in this stage? or time to pull out?

Builders need revenue to survive. This is a closed loop circle, they borrow money which need to pay back, purchase materials, pay wages. Staff wages do not stop when there's no buyers. There's only a certain amount of time businesses can survive without a revenue stream, so my bet is that they'll try to close as many deals at the current prices as they can now but as soon as the remaining demand dries out there will be deals and promotions.

As they already pay wages to workers and may have bargain deals now on materials then one option would be to bargain an extra work done on the house included in the price. Maybe try to get a 'free' kitchen fit in or an attic conversion, or some stuff like that.

Labour / materials may be cheap to them now, while cash is in super demand. Getting extra work done may be the easiest for you to bargain.

garhjw

theballz wrote: »

Nothing has happened? Have you looked out the window the last month?

In relation to the property market..... nothing has happened yet. Prices have not floored. There is not a flood of units coming to market at knock down rates..... this is a property thread, nothing has happened to the property market yet in terms of prices falling, supply increasing etc...