Property Market 2020

Roberto_gas

Roberto_gas wrote: »

Rent is 18k per year ! Job is well secured... ! If markets correct 30-40% i wont need a mortgage !

sorry for disappointment !

To be fair, most folk presume everyone is in the borrow all but the deposit boat
Herd thinking.

beauf

milhous wrote: »

Nvm the billions of euro invested in loan books that "vulture funds" have bought up. These will be offloaded as their investors start trying to take their money out. The trillions of euro taking out of the European economy and the same in America which will all come down to huge job loss.

I'm not saying it won't recover eventually, but to think that the property prices here won't be effected too much here is ludacris.

I'd be waiting to buy.

If you want to buy the type of properties that REIT invested into thats fine. You''ll have to choose your timing, some will get out quickly others will stay for the long term.

Donald Trump

Roberto_gas wrote: »

36k so far

Don't forget to deduct the interest you would have paid (if you were getting a mortgage)

For cash, deduct whatever interest you received. Would be small, especially after DIRT, but you have to count it too.

And also allow for any wear and tear/repairs you saved yourself.

Donald Trump

beauf wrote: »

If you want to buy the type of properties that REIT invested into thats fine. You''ll have to choose your timing, some will get out quickly others will stay for the long term.

Professional investors are quicker to cut losses and get out.

Even if they want to stay in the market long term, they can get out now if they think the market will go down in the short term, and get back in on the way back up again

listermint

beauf wrote: »

I assume all building activity will be the first to stop. This the supply of new property will also stop.

So you've got supply, demand and finance all shrinking together. I can't see demand thats built up over a decade or more shrinking as fast the other two. I think the housing crisis will still remain.

I don't think population will shrink as fast as it grew either.

Job activity i.e acquisitions will stop too. The notion the demand will remain as is has no basis in reality.

Roberto_gas

Donald Trump wrote: »

Don't forget to deduct the interest you would have paid (if you were getting a mortgage)

For cash, deduct whatever interest you received. Would be small, especially after DIRT, but you have to count it too.

And also allow for any wear and tear/repairs you saved yourself.

I was only looking to get it back by the price ! Not even considered any of the other many benefits

gimmeshelt1er

After a while passively observing i thought i would chime in on our current situation and give some a perspective.

10 days ago (Friday before last) we viewed a property that was listed for 395k, we both thought it was a tad bit over priced and would need some love so we made an offer of 330k at the end of the viewing to the estate agent. The estate agent gave us a look of disdain and replied with, i quote " that is too low in fairness, we wouldn't want to make the seller angry and ruin a deal ".

Just 1 hour ago the same estate agent rang me and informed us that the seller would like to proceed with the 330k offer.

We haven't told him no yet but we have a 175k down payment as we sold our property last August and are currently renting until August this year at 1300 pm month so we are in no rush.

Roberto_gas

gimmeshelt1er wrote: »

After a while passively observing i thought i would chime in on our current situation and give some a perspective.

10 days ago (Friday before last) we viewed a property that was listed for 395k, we both thought it was a tad bit over priced and would need some love so we made an offer of 330k at the end of the viewing to the estate agent. The estate agent gave us a look of disdain and replied with, i quote " that is too low in fairness, we wouldn't want to make the seller angry and ruin a deal ".

Just 1 hour ago the same estate agent rang me and informed us that the seller would like to proceed with the 330k offer.

We haven't told him no yet but we have a 175k down payment as we sold our property last August and are currently renting until August this year at 1300 pm month so we are in no rush.

Wow thats a 20% discount right there !

landofthetree

SozBbz wrote: »

Exactly.

You can't compare this to 2008 because this is more akin to a natural disaster.
in 2008, it was build on borrowed "wealth". People thought they were rich because they had apartments in Bulgaria and were building investment property in Leitrim. Very little equity, everything was based on prices going up, and people just assumed that prices would always go up.

Yes, huge numbers of people have lost jobs but many of those jobs will come back once we've broken the back of this. It will probably get worse before it gets better, but it will get better. People wont suddenly have lost the desire to go out and socialise in bars and restaurants, take holidays, buy consumer goods. Speaking personally, I will definitely want to get out and support small businesses as soon as possible.

What I see coming is inflation, the likes of which we won't have seen since before the crash, due to governments printing money to get us beyond this crisis. That could actually make nominal house prices go up, and decrease in real terms the value of the borrowing made by existing home owners. Too early to say if this would mean houses are actually more affordable in real terms , I'm not sure. Obviously there will be no volume of sales for the coming months - but I don't see why anyone would drop their prices to force a sale (outside of the 3 D's - Dead, Divorced, Desperate)... to be honest I'm not sure it would work anyway, as if the banks stop allowing people to draw down until things return to a more certain footing, then it would be moot anyway.

We won't know anyway because the one thing that is certain is there won't be any significant number of sales going through to establish what values are looking like.

Inflation will cause long term unemployment btw.

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/3404/economics/does-inflation-cause-unemployment/

Browney7

gimmeshelt1er wrote: »

After a while passively observing i thought i would chime in on our current situation and give some a perspective.

10 days ago (Friday before last) we viewed a property that was listed for 395k, we both thought it was a tad bit over priced and would need some love so we made an offer of 330k at the end of the viewing to the estate agent. The estate agent gave us a look of disdain and replied with, i quote " that is too low in fairness, we wouldn't want to make the seller angry and ruin a deal ".

Just 1 hour ago the same estate agent rang me and informed us that the seller would like to proceed with the 330k offer.

We haven't told him no yet but we have a 175k down payment as we sold our property last August and are currently renting until August this year at 1300 pm month so we are in no rush.

Was the viewed property ex rental or a deceased estate selling?

0gac3yjefb5sv7

gimmeshelt1er wrote: »

After a while passively observing i thought i would chime in on our current situation and give some a perspective.

10 days ago (Friday before last) we viewed a property that was listed for 395k, we both thought it was a tad bit over priced and would need some love so we made an offer of 330k at the end of the viewing to the estate agent. The estate agent gave us a look of disdain and replied with, i quote " that is too low in fairness, we wouldn't want to make the seller angry and ruin a deal ".

Just 1 hour ago the same estate agent rang me and informed us that the seller would like to proceed with the 330k offer.

We haven't told him no yet but we have a 175k down payment as we sold our property last August and are currently renting until August this year at 1300 pm month so we are in no rush.

Is this in Dublin? Seems an outrageous bargain but fair play to you

Roberto_gas

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Is this in Dublin? Seems an outrageous bargain but fair play to you

Dont think its bargain yet ! It is bound to fall further and hence the seller wants to get out of it as soon as possible !

mcbert

I notice I'm getting more daft/myhome alerts the last 7-10 days for west side of Galway city. Thats not to say asking prices are lower, or what they are will accept, but there's a few more houses than usual available suddenly.

beauf

Donald Trump wrote: »

Professional investors are quicker to cut losses and get out.

Even if they want to stay in the market long term, they can get out now if they think the market will go down in the short term, and get back in on the way back up again

They can't get out quickly due to the tenancy laws. Unless they sell with sitting tenants. Who will buy a property with sitting tenants who don't pay rent and can't be evicted. They may or may not decide they will lose less by staying in.

listermint wrote: »

Job activity i.e acquisitions will stop too. The notion the demand will remain as is has no basis in reality.

Who said demand will stay the same.

If you have 8 customers who want apples and 6 apples.
if you have 3 customers and one apple.
Maybe no customers and one apple.

Demand and supply do not operated independently.

SozBbz

landofthetree wrote: »

Inflation will cause long term unemployment btw.

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/3404/economics/does-inflation-cause-unemployment/

That article you linked actually says inflation can cause unemployment, not does cause unemployment.

Also I don't think it applies because this would be inflation brought about by govt stimulus, not because of growth. Also the point re competitiveness is moot because Ireland are not uniquely affected, governments all over the world will be pouring money into their economies to restart them. Competitiveness is only impacted if Irelands rate of inflation was outstripping those around them.

The Belly

landofthetree wrote: »

Inflation will cause long term unemployment btw.

https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/3404/economics/does-inflation-cause-unemployment/

Where is all this inflation going to come from?.

People save not spend in a crisis the only money that is spent is on essentials.

Japan is a classic example.

Irish Times Aricle 2010

Savings by households more than tripled in 2009 compared to 2008, according to figures released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) yesterday.

Households were saving almost one-eighth of their total disposable income last year. The net savings rate of 12.3 per cent represented a massive increase on 2008, when just 3.9 per cent of disposable income was saved. In 2007, the figure was zero.

landofthetree

SozBbz wrote: »

That article you linked actually says inflation can cause unemployment, not does cause unemployment.

Also I don't think it applies because this would be inflation brought about by govt stimulus, not because of growth. Also the point re competitiveness is moot because Ireland are not uniquely affected, governments all over the world will be pouring money into their economies to restart them. Competitiveness is only impacted if Irelands rate of inflation was outstripping those around them.

The US government created high unemployment with stimulus in the 70s and early 80s.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/1970s-great-inflation.asp

Many people who remember this terrible era blame it all on the Arab countries and oil pricing. Still, the Wall Street Journal, in reviewing this period in January 1986 said, "OPEC got all the credit for what the U.S. had mainly done to itself."

Donald Trump

beauf wrote: »

They can't get out quickly due to the tenancy laws. Unless they sell with sitting tenants. Who will buy a property with sitting tenants who don't pay rent and can't be evicted. They may or may not decide they will lose less by staying in.



Who said demand will stay the same.

If you have 8 customers who want apples and 6 apples.
if you have 3 customers and one apple.
Maybe no customers and one apple.

Demand and supply do not operated independently.

You have an investment fund. They might not have lock-up periods or might be past the lock up period. People who put money into those vehicles might move to redeem or withdraw their investment. If that happens enough, the fund has to liquidate some of its assets.

Am not saying it will happen. I am saying it could happen

Mic 1972

beauf wrote: »

I assume all building activity will be the first to stop. This the supply of new property will also stop.

So you've got supply, demand and finance all shrinking together. I can't see demand thats built up over a decade or more shrinking as fast the other two. I think the housing crisis will still remain.

I don't think population will shrink as fast as it grew either.

Supply of new property will stop, so will demand coming from people who need a mortgage. Only cash buyers can acquire property when banks don't lend money.
There will be second hand houses coming onto the market too. Think about professional LLs who can no longer rent at profitable rates who are lucky enough to have vacant property, all those airBnB apartments. And also houses taht were occupied by elderly who will die.

landofthetree

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-52000219?__twitter_impression=true

OECD say it will be worse than 2008.

We are looking at the great depression II.

Mic 1972

The Belly wrote: »

Where is all this inflation going to come from?.

People save not spend in a crisis the only money that is spent is on essentials.

Japan is a classic example.

Irish Times Aricle 2010

Savings by households more than tripled in 2009 compared to 2008, according to figures released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) yesterday.

Households were saving almost one-eighth of their total disposable income last year. The net savings rate of 12.3 per cent represented a massive increase on 2008, when just 3.9 per cent of disposable income was saved. In 2007, the figure was zero.

Inflation may come from what they call helicopter money (govt printing more money). And it's really bad
Italy had it after the war. The Italian currency lost so much value that what used to be an average salary (1,000 Lira) became the price of a coffie in the 80s. An average salary in the 80s was 1,000,000 lira. That's inflation when the only option left to inflate money into the system is by printing it

Reversal

landofthetree wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-52000219?__twitter_impression=true

OECD say it will be worse than 2008.

We are looking at the great depression II.

Dismissing the idea that a "bounce back" is possible.

Mic 1972

Needless to say, China will come out of it completely unaffected

An Ri rua

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Needless to say, China will come out of it completely unaffected

Please elaborate. As lost consumption is lost consumption.

beauf

Mic 1972 wrote: »

....Think about professional LLs who can no longer rent at profitable rates .....

What in your head is a profitable rent. Also what is a "professional LL"

Mic 1972

beauf wrote: »

What in your head is a profitable rent. Also what is a "professional LL"

LLs who owns several properties and rent them out as a job know when it's profitable to rent and when it's more beneficial to sell
Rent is risky and has a lot of expenses that people font consider until they find themselves in the LL shoes
Rent is profitable if the net profit is worth the risk and the hassle of renting

cnocbui

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Needless to say, China will come out of it completely unaffected

No they wont. If there is sufficient unemployment to cause house prices to fall, it will also greatly reduce demand for China's exports.

voluntary

The world economy is guaranteed to enter its worst recession since the financial crisis in the first half of this year with a recovery subsequent months likely but not assured, according to Bloomberg Economics.

In a report released Monday, Chief Economist Tom Orlik said “a lot needs to go right” for global growth to rebound after the coronavirus leads to a severe first-half contraction. For now, they are predicting a 0.2% GDP decline for the whole year.

Bloomberg report, today

beejee

Clarity will come in a few weeks, and I wouldn't be betting on recovery. If anything, there are probably multiple shocks coming to economies everywhere.

So in my opinion... If you're selling, you better get it done ASAP or you'll be looking at fractions of your money back.

If you're buying, you're mad.

People will hold out as long as possible, could be a year or two. But sit down and get ready

JamesMason

gimmeshelt1er wrote: »

After a while passively observing i thought i would chime in on our current situation and give some a perspective.

10 days ago (Friday before last) we viewed a property that was listed for 395k, we both thought it was a tad bit over priced and would need some love so we made an offer of 330k at the end of the viewing to the estate agent. The estate agent gave us a look of disdain and replied with, i quote " that is too low in fairness, we wouldn't want to make the seller angry and ruin a deal ".

Just 1 hour ago the same estate agent rang me and informed us that the seller would like to proceed with the 330k offer.

We haven't told him no yet but we have a 175k down payment as we sold our property last August and are currently renting until August this year at 1300 pm month so we are in no rush.

Huge reduction after 10 days into the crisis. Imagine the reduction after 10 weeks...