Property Market 2020

SteelyDanJalapeno

Stock market taking yet another battering today, 4 days in the last month have 4 entries in the top 10th biggest ever daily stock market drops.

Anyone thinking housing won't be affected is deluded

beauf

Mic 1972 wrote: »

A LL with no mortgage has nothing to lose, selling now would be smarter than selling in 6 months when the economy is paralyzed. or they can keep renting, sure they won't go bankrupt
A LL who is renting a property and has a mortgage is taking a huge risk and making little to no profit until the mortgage is paid off. These LLs can't sell now, they have to keep renting to pay the mortgage

So if they all sell and stop renting what will happen to rental supply.

Mic 1972

beauf wrote: »

So if they all sell and stop renting what will happen to rental supply.

Again, you seem very tunnel visioned with this. it's not all doing this, all doing that. There are different scenarios
Rent is very definitely not an issue now that tourism has been killed

JJJackal

LuasSimon wrote: »

Wouldn’t like to have bought an investment property in recent times . The government are going to have to get money from somewhere and raise taxes once all this passes over .
Anyone that can afford to own two three or more houses will be easier tax than those returning to their job or not returning to their job at all with a larger welfare bill for the state also to be paid for from somewhere .

Its likely everyone will be taxed more including you- next election people will demand water charges be introduced. This pandemic should be a game changer

Eric Cartman

JJJackal wrote: »

Its likely everyone will be taxed more including you- next election people will demand water charges be introduced. This pandemic should be a game changer

doubt it, that would impact the unemployed, they'll lump it on the middle classes and high earners like they usually do, our wonderful top heave tax burden.

Idbatterim

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

Stock market taking yet another battering today, 4 days in the last month have 4 entries in the top 10th biggest ever daily stock market drops.

Anyone thinking housing won't be affected is deluded

Nobody has says it won’t be effected. Of course it will. We don’t live in the states though , there aren’t going to be people out on this he streets and the banks selling tons off houses next week...

Idbatterim

Eric Cartman wrote: »

doubt it, that would impact the unemployed, they'll lump it on the middle classes and high earners like they usually do, our wonderful top heave tax burden.

Perfect chance to overhaul it. ****ing ridiculous now all the wasters getting as much as newly unemployed...

Eric Cartman

Idbatterim wrote: »

Perfect chance to overhaul it. ****ing ridiculous now all the wasters getting as much as newly unemployed...

boats already out on that. Ive already heard of people trying to work cash in hand and claim the emergency payment at the moment.

beauf

Idbatterim wrote: »

... banks selling tons off houses next week...

Banks will do what they did last time.

OwlsZat

Idbatterim wrote: »

Nobody has says it won’t be effected. Of course it will. We don’t live in the states though , there aren’t going to be people out on this he streets and the banks selling tons off houses next week...

Woah, you can see into the future? Never ever use your powers for evil.

randoplh134

SozBbz wrote: »

The fact that you seem to view the two as the same says a lot about your economic understanding.

I'd love to know the credentials and actually property experience of all those claiming the end of the world.

I do not consider them the same, where did i mention that? They are related though, 2006/2007 was the peak of the bubble and even if you visit forum posts here from then you will see the same type of property crash deniers claiming all is grand and the market won't crash.

Fast forward to 2020 and we are at the end of the longest economic bull market in history, we have a property bubble which is about to pop and to top it off we are in the midst of a global pandemic which was impacted all industries and brought most of them to a screeching halt and you still deny we are not facing a drop in Irish property prices ?

Some people are so deluded it isn't even funny, you don't need Daniel Kahneman esque economic credentials to see the writings on the wall.

landofthetree

Idbatterim wrote: »

Nobody has says it won’t be effected. Of course it will. We don’t live in the states though , there aren’t going to be people out on this he streets and the banks selling tons off houses next week...

Go back 10 days in this thread and that's exactly what many were saying.

randoplh134

To dovetail onto my previous post, i am deadly serious here if anyone thinks that nearly all industries worldwide practically come to a screeching halt and will just bounce back like nothing happened and everything will go back to normal is seriously deluded.

* A good chunk of the jobs lost will not come back as most of these companies are hooked up to and surviving on a drip of low interest credit, they have very little cash reserves.

* We do not know when this will be resolved, we could have a vaccine tomorrow but still be in this situation for months until it comes downstream globally. Expect this to last months at minimum.

People are forgetting the most potent factor in economics and this is human nature. The masses are fearful, fear leads to hoarding. Even if the mainstream media pump out news of the virus disappearing and all is well with the world, people will still be hesitant and not spend like before. We will not economic activity go back to 2019 levels after this, expect a prolonged drop. Couple this with the only solution the world governments have right now to try stop a depression is a stimulus package which entails of gifting citizens with a fixed cash amount, remember this will not fix the issue for numerous reasons such as :

A) People will hoard the cash
If forced to purchase it will be on essentials ( which they would've bought anyway). Good time to invest in Charmin stocks
C) Even if they do consume it will likely be online from big players such as Amazon, this will take business away from SMEs and a lot of these businesses will close.

Even after announcing these measures they still can't stop the markets from tanking. Just today from the IT

" US stocks dropped on Monday despite the Federal Reserve unleashing its most forceful effort to date to contain the financial fallout of the coronavirus, including a pledge to buy US government bonds in unlimited amounts. "

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/markets/us-stocks-down-despite-forceful-efforts-of-federal-reserve-1.4209683

The world governments are literally pledging to pump unlimited amounts of money into the economies and the markets didn't even blink.
If you think Irish properties are some how insulated from all the impending global crash you are seriously deluded something and experiencing cognitive dissonance to an extreme.

garhjw

More whackos crawling out from under their rocks. Some serious depressing opinions gleefully shared in such an assured manner, which is kind of sick considering people are getting very sick and dying. Think about the human cost of all this.

Zenify

garhjw wrote: »

More whackos crawling out from under their rocks. Some serious depressing opinions gleefully shared in such an assured manner, which is kind of sick considering people are getting very sick and dying. Think about the human cost of all this.

Unfortunately, the current situation is depressing and this is a thread about how it relates to property...?

awec

randoplh134 wrote: »

To dovetail onto my previous post, i am deadly serious here if anyone thinks that nearly all industries worldwide practically come to a screeching halt and will just bounce back like nothing happened and everything will go back to normal is seriously deluded.

* A good chunk of the jobs lost will not come back as most of these companies are hooked up to and surviving on a drip of low interest credit, they have very little cash reserves.

* We do not know when this will be resolved, we could have a vaccine tomorrow but still be in this situation for months until it comes downstream globally. Expect this to last months at minimum.

People are forgetting the most potent factor in economics and this is human nature. The masses are fearful, fear leads to hoarding. Even if the mainstream media pump out news of the virus disappearing and all is well with the world, people will still be hesitant and not spend like before. We will not economic activity go back to 2019 levels after this, expect a prolonged drop. Couple this with the only solution the world governments have right now to try stop a depression is a stimulus package which entails of gifting citizens with a fixed cash amount, remember this will not fix the issue for numerous reasons such as :

A) People will hoard the cash
If forced to purchase it will be on essentials ( which they would've bought anyway). Good time to invest in Charmin stocks
C) Even if they do consume it will likely be online from big players such as Amazon, this will take business away from SMEs and a lot of these businesses will close.

Even after announcing these measures they still can't stop the markets from tanking. Just today from the IT

" US stocks dropped on Monday despite the Federal Reserve unleashing its most forceful effort to date to contain the financial fallout of the coronavirus, including a pledge to buy US government bonds in unlimited amounts. "

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/markets/us-stocks-down-despite-forceful-efforts-of-federal-reserve-1.4209683

The world governments are literally pledging to pump unlimited amounts of money into the economies and the markets didn't even blink.
If you think Irish properties are some how insulated from all the impending global crash you are seriously deluded something and experiencing cognitive dissonance to an extreme.

I do think anyone who thinks there will be no impact at all to Irish property is deluded.

But equally so, anyone who thinks there's going to be a sudden glut of property appear on the market that everyone currently wanting to buy can hoover up for bargain basement prices is living in some alternate reality. Investors might sell off their nice apartments in Dublin in fairness, if that's what you're after.

On a side note, you forgot to mention the inability of the US Congress to agree on it's approach to stimulus measures in your piece about the stock market. So when you say world governments are literally pledging to pump unlimited money, you really meant to include the bit that the US is yet to figure out it's own approach. It's pretty relevant information, not sure why you'd leave it out.

Mad_maxx

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

Stock market taking yet another battering today, 4 days in the last month have 4 entries in the top 10th biggest ever daily stock market drops.

Anyone thinking housing won't be affected is deluded

while this event is pretty unique , stock market crashes occur far more often than property crashes , there was no property crash from 2000 to 2003 where as stocks in the USA and EUROPE almost halved after the dotcom bubble burst

property will probably drop by 10 or 15% but it wont fall anything like the stock market has

landofthetree

garhjw wrote: »

More whackos crawling out from under their rocks. Some serious depressing opinions gleefully shared in such an assured manner, which is kind of sick considering people are getting very sick and dying. Think about the human cost of all this.

If people didn't have to pay so much for a mortgage or rent we would all be in a much better position to tackle the crisis.

When will we learn the lesson that high prices are damaging other aspects of society?

awec

For some anecdotes, in the aftermath of the US congress failing to agree on a stimulus package my own stock fell ~1% today. This is a lot less than it has fallen in the past few weeks.

I am down ~27% from the peak this year (mid Feb).

But it's still ~15% higher than what it was this time last year.

cnocbui

Graham wrote: »

Taxes tend to be on income (PAYE) or spending (VAT / Stamp Duty) rather than asset value.

Property tax is nothing but a tax on capital.

OttoPilot

awec wrote: »

For some anecdotes, in the aftermath of the US congress failing to agree on a stimulus package my own stock fell ~1% today. This is a lot less than it has fallen in the past few weeks.

I am down ~27% from the peak this year (mid Feb).

But it's still ~15% higher than what it was this time last year.

One specific stock?

pearcider

Mad_maxx wrote: »

while this event is pretty unique , stock market crashes occur far more often than property crashes , there was no property crash from 2000 to 2003 where as stocks in the USA and EUROPE almost halved after the dotcom bubble burst

property will probably drop by 10 or 15% but it wont fall anything like the stock market has

You hope anyway. Keep an eye on rents and rental property availability they stopped rising last year and you may recall earlier in the thread someone put up the news story about the investors trying to bail out of the aviva property fund such that they were forced to suspend redemptions to stop it collapsing. That was before the virus kicked off.

Graham

cnocbui wrote: »

Property tax is nothing but a tax on capital.

hence 'tend'.

There are obviously other taxes including property taxes that effect landlords but at the current level they're not exactly significant. Were they to be raised to sensible levels they'd hit much more than landlords.

awec

OttoPilot wrote: »

One specific stock?

Yea, sorry, should have said that, I only have one specific stock.

pearcider

awec wrote: »

For some anecdotes, in the aftermath of the US congress failing to agree on a stimulus package my own stock fell ~1% today. This is a lot less than it has fallen in the past few weeks.

I am down ~27% from the peak this year (mid Feb).

But it's still ~15% higher than what it was this time last year.

Get out while you can. Stock indices are going to fall 90% from their peaks. This is your typical 1929 style asset bubble collapse but with a hell of a lot more leverage. It hasn’t even got started yet and if you think an insolvent central bank printing 10 trillion of paper on behalf of an insolvent government is going to make any difference you’re a dreamer.

Mad_maxx

awec wrote: »

For some anecdotes, in the aftermath of the US congress failing to agree on a stimulus package my own stock fell ~1% today. This is a lot less than it has fallen in the past few weeks.

I am down ~27% from the peak this year (mid Feb).

But it's still ~15% higher than what it was this time last year.

very few stocks are up 15% higher than they were last march, in fact most are lower than where they were three years ago

well done on your choices

garhjw

pearcider wrote: »

Get out while you can. Stock indices are going to fall 90% from their peaks. This is your typical 1929 style asset bubble collapse but with a hell of a lot more leverage. It hasn’t even got started yet and if you think an insolvent central bank printing 10 trillion of paper on behalf of an insolvent government is going to make any difference you’re a dreamer.

90%... thread getting worse by the page

cnocbui

Graham wrote: »

hence 'tend'.

There are obviously other taxes including property taxes that effect landlords but at the current level they're not exactly significant. Were they to be raised to sensible levels they'd hit much more than landlords.

You want taxes on property and assets to rise? You want the government to take an even bigger amount in taxation?

Graham

cnocbui wrote: »

You want taxes on property and assets to rise? You want the government to take an even bigger amount in taxation?

Great topic for another thread.

coolshannagh28

pearcider wrote: »

Get out while you can. Stock indices are going to fall 90% from their peaks. This is your typical 1929 style asset bubble collapse but with a hell of a lot more leverage. It hasn’t even got started yet and if you think an insolvent central bank printing 10 trillion of paper on behalf of an insolvent government is going to make any difference you’re a dreamer.

80 % would bring it to 2009 levels which cannot be ruled out , there is no doubt that the FED the dollar and the US by extension are a busted flush , if the Chinese had planned it they could not have engineered a better confluence of events to break the dollar and establish the yuan as the reserve currency.