Property Market 2020

Mic 1972

SozBbz wrote: »

Yes the numbers around the hospitality industry are shocking but the majority of those layoffs will be temporary.

The pubs etc will come back as soon as its safe to do so.

Our economy is not going to just stay like this. This is not the new normal.

Pubs and hospitality industry will have to wait a long time before business picks up for them again. The virus isn't going to go away in 2-3 months

SozBbz

cnocbui wrote: »

I have not seen the cost of inputs to house construction fall in my lifetime, and I watched live on a B&W TV in a classroom, as Armstrong stepped onto the moon.

So nice in theory, but I'll believe it when I see it.

They don't, of course.

The price of certain raw materials may rise or fall, but the price for construction materials will typically be whatever they can competitively be sold at. If the input prices get cheaper, then the building materials supplier has just improved their margin.

Say for arguments sake I manufacture and sell insulation used in the construction of houses. Right now, maybe some of my raw materials are getting cheaper (great) but I'm probaly going to sell less in the coming months (less great). So I'll probably just keep the price the same, so the margin on the units I sell will be higher, but overall I won't sell so many.

Nowhere in this scenario am i obliged or even motivated to pass on the reduction in the cost of my raw materials to by customers.

Houses are not built from raw steel or crude oil.

voluntary

SozBbz wrote: »

The price of certain raw materials may rise or fall, but the price for construction materials will typically be whatever they can competitively be sold at. If the input prices get cheaper, then the building materials supplier has just improved their margin.
.

Hard to discuss with an idiotic argument like that.

Anyways, if you believe in a rapid recovery on property market I'd suggest the great opportunity today would be to buy shares in dumped REIT vehicles. If property market doesn't get hurt much then REITs are going to recover fast and you can make some solid profits.

Idbatterim

voluntary wrote: »

Hard to discuss with an idiotic argument like that.

Anyways, if you believe in a rapid recovery on property market I'd suggest the great opportunity today would be to buy shares in dumped REIT vehicles. If property market doesn't get hurt much then REITs are going to recover fast and you can make some solid profits.

nothing with property is rapid, its glacial movements for the most part. Like even though now, prices may well be down 15-20% in a year, they dont just drop off a cliff. Its like boiling a lobster...

OwlsZat

cnocbui wrote: »

I have not seen the cost of inputs to house construction fall in my lifetime, and I watched live on a B&W TV in a classroom, as Armstrong stepped onto the moon. So nice in theory, but I'll believe it when I see it.

History doesn't predict the future.

cnocbui

OwlsZat wrote: »

History doesn't predict the future.

But it rhymes.

landofthetree

cnocbui wrote: »

I have not seen the cost of inputs to house construction fall in my lifetime, and I watched live on a B&W TV in a classroom, as Armstrong stepped onto the moon.

So nice in theory, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Why do tender prices fall during a recession?

OwlsZat

Love the tax/law avoiding AirBnB full property rental scum advertising for tennants on Daft for "3 months only".

Idbatterim

OwlsZat wrote: »

Love the tax/law avoiding AirBnB full property rental scum advertising for tennants on Daft for "3 months only".

why are they being called scum? the governt are entirely responsbile for the housing farce! Or do the airbnb owners, make the law?:rolleyes:

SozBbz

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Pubs and hospitality industry will have to wait a long time before business picks up for them again. The virus isn't going to go away in 2-3 months

My post didnt mention any timeframe, simply that this virus isnt going to be this problematic forever.

TBH I'd say the pubs will be first to bounce back, people will be only dying to get out of the house and socialise after this period of confinement.

cnocbui

landofthetree wrote: »

Why do tender prices fall during a recession?

We are not talking about tenders. After the GFC, did tradesmen accept lower wages and so house construction costs fell, or did they all jump on planes and head off to NZ, the UK and Australia, leaving a shortage of tradesmen in Ireland so wages didn't fall?

fliball123

cnocbui wrote: »

We are not talking about tenders. After the GFC, did tradesmen accept lower wages and so house construction costs fell, or did they all jump on planes and head off to NZ, the UK and Australia, leaving a shortage of tradesmen in Ireland so wages didn't fall?

The one thing different about this is you cant jump on a plane anywhere and if you could there is no where in the world that will not have some corona

OwlsZat

Idbatterim wrote: »

why are they being called scum? the governt are entirely responsbile for the housing farce! Or do the airbnb owners, make the law?:rolleyes:

The law has been changed. People choose not to comply with the law. They should be prosecuted simliar to other law breaking scum.

https://www.thejournal.ie/explainer-short-term-lets-4704793-Jul2019/

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Strange question but does anyone know how much discount an investment property company would get for buying say 15 apartments vs a regular private sale of one apartment.

Example on the PPR the apartments I am interested in sold to this fund for 240k each Dec 2018. One PPR sale has 303k listed in January. The bidding on the one I'm interested in is 290k.

Trying to guage if the 240k was a significant discount due to the multiple properties being brought.

Claw Hammer

SozBbz wrote: »

My post didnt mention any timeframe, simply that this virus isnt going to be this problematic forever.

TBH I'd say the pubs will be first to bounce back, people will be only dying to get out of the house and socialise after this period of confinement.

Will people have any money to buy drink in pubs? The overhang of this virus is going to be higher taxes, higher personal debts and therefore reduced capacity for leisure spending. People will be very conscious about their personal space for quite a considerable time after this ends. People who have savings are going to even more conscious of how quickly circumstances change and will be very cautious in their spending for quite some time. There will be very little credit available as the banks will be maxed out. Another few weeks should see massive default on PPC products with cars being repossessed left right and centre. Some planned building projects will now not proceed because there will be no longer economically viable and other half completed projects may well be stalled. The end of this crisis will not be like the switching on of a lightbulb more like the slow warming up of a cold engine.

Cuddlesworth

After 2 decades, its somewhat comforting to know that Cherrywood will continue to be a desolate wasteland in the near future I guess.

wowy

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Strange question but does anyone know how much discount an investment property company would get for buying say 15 apartments vs a regular private sale of one apartment.

Example on the PPR the apartments I am interested in sold to this fund for 240k each Dec 2018. One PPR sale has 303k listed in January. The bidding on the one I'm interested in is 290k.

Trying to guage if the 240k was a significant discount due to the multiple properties being brought.

Were they newly built when sold to the fund in Dec 2018? If so, Vat would be excluded from the sale price registered on the PPR.

cnocbui

fliball123 wrote: »

The one thing different about this is you cant jump on a plane anywhere and if you could there is no where in the world that will not have some corona

That being the case, there won't be any house building going on either, so claiming a reduction in costs is less than moot.

kevinc565

Blue Badger wrote: »

As someone hoping to be in a position to purchase by mid-2020 (currently looking at properties within commuting distance of Dublin and am living like a student again) I absolutely hope they do come down!

Personally... I'm expecting stagnation for much of 2020 within Dublin. Who knows with Brexit but tbh I can't see them reaching a trade agreement by end of 2020.

It's nice to dream that there will be a fall though

Problem a lot of sellers wont just drop the price - so they hang on the market for months and years even.

51 Rocwood:
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/51-rocwood-off-leopardstown-road-blackrock-co-dublin-a94-v302/3851170

was on and off the market for 2+ year i think before going sale agreed.

randoplh134

<SNIP>

landofthetree

cnocbui wrote: »

We are not talking about tenders. After the GFC, did tradesmen accept lower wages and so house construction costs fell, or did they all jump on planes and head off to NZ, the UK and Australia, leaving a shortage of tradesmen in Ireland so wages didn't fall?

Production of housing almost stopped. The few sites that were open seen lads work for a lot less.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

wowy wrote: »

Were they newly built when sold to the fund in Dec 2018? If so, Vat would be excluded from the sale price registered on the PPR.

No not newly built. Built in 2005 which I know brings its own cautions.

OwlsZat

cnocbui wrote: »

That being the case, there won't be any house building going on either, so claiming a reduction in costs is less than moot.

There will be houses built for lower costs. The need to build has never been greater. Economically the country will need to put people back to work and generate funds for the desimated pension reserve. I'll be hugely shocked if the building program across the country isn't used as a Government national recovery vehicle.

SozBbz

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Will people have any money to buy drink in pubs? The overhang of this virus is going to be higher taxes, higher personal debts and therefore reduced capacity for leisure spending. People will be very conscious about their personal space for quite a considerable time after this ends. People who have savings are going to even more conscious of how quickly circumstances change and will be very cautious in their spending for quite some time. There will be very little credit available as the banks will be maxed out. Another few weeks should see massive default on PPC products with cars being repossessed left right and centre. Some planned building projects will now not proceed because there will be no longer economically viable and other half completed projects may well be stalled. The end of this crisis will not be like the switching on of a lightbulb more like the slow warming up of a cold engine.

Firstly, there was an industry expert on about PCPs (i presume you mean) saying that they were reaching out to come to arrangements with people which makes absolute sense. Think about it, they hardly want all those cars back en masse!

Also, while a lot of people have lost their jobs, most people have not. Granted, no one is going to be earning a bonus this year, but that said, especially in light of the new support payments just announced, yes I do think people will have money to go to the pub. They may not choose to go for Champagne in the Shelbourne, but a few pints down the local after months of no social life? I think most people will be able to spend the €30/40 that would take.

Big, discretionary purchases will suffer without doubt, but even during the recession people managed to go to the pub. Also, people on the dole manage to go to the pub. Its really not that aspirational.

landofthetree

OwlsZat wrote: »

There will be houses built for lower costs. The need to build has never been greater. Economically the country will need to put people back to work and generate funds for the desimated pension reserve. I'll be hugely shocked if the building program across the country isn't used as a Government national recovery vehicle.

Where will they get the money?

Idbatterim

landofthetree wrote: »

Where will they get the money?

where are the uk, american and all the other governments, getting these staggering funds they are talking about from!

landofthetree

Idbatterim wrote: »

where are the uk, american and all the other governments, getting these staggering funds they are talking about from!

All has to be paid back?


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newsweek.com/national-debt-could-surpass-25-trillion-amid-spending-combat-coronavirus-1493758%3famp=1


Depressing stuff.

Claw Hammer

SozBbz wrote: »

Firstly, there was an industry expert on about PCPs (i presume you mean) saying that they were reaching out to come to arrangements with people which makes absolute sense. Think about it, they hardly want all those cars back en masse!

.

The banks are heavily exposed on PCPs. when this is over they will want to raise cash immediately. they will take back cars and sell them for what they can get. they will make sweet talk noises on the radio about helping affected customers but in reality they will do what they are doing to everyone else and shaft them.

landofthetree

Claw Hammer wrote: »

The banks are heavily exposed on PCPs. when this is over they will want to raise cash immediately. they will take back cars and sell them for what they can get. they will make sweet talk noises on the radio about helping affected customers but in reality they will do what they are doing to everyone else and shaft them.

The first rule of banking is take legal action as quickly as possible once a default happens.

Banks won't hang around if payments aren't being met.

cal naughton

Claw Hammer wrote: »

The banks are heavily exposed on PCPs. when this is over they will want to raise cash immediately. they will take back cars and sell them for what they can get. they will make sweet talk noises on the radio about helping affected customers but in reality they will do what they are doing to everyone else and shaft them.

The Bank's in this case are Volkswagen bank, Ford credit ,Audi finance etc and not your Irish high street bank's.