Property Market 2020

The Belly

skooterblue2 wrote: »

Ours definitely are but not to the same extent that the american cousins are.
The same thing is going to happen again that happened in 2008 and the Irish banks will have bought the same sub prime bonds that were get rich quick schemes in 2008. Its all happening again.

Rules have changed since 2008 if a bank get into trouble.

It a bail in not a bail out for banks and bond holders.

The only guarantee is the 100k per bank deposit scheme. Everything else is not guaranteed.

But of course these rules brought in after the last crash may not be applied or maybe changed.

Graham

skooterblue2 wrote: »

Ours definitely are but not to the same extent that the american cousins are.
The same thing is going to happen again that happened in 2008 and the Irish banks will have bought the same sub prime bonds that were get rich quick schemes in 2008. Its all happening again.

How are our banks over leveraged if the loan book has been collateralised and converted to BTOs as you suggested?

I'll ask again, which of our banks are issuing BTOs? How many, what value?

How are our banks over leveraged if they are operating to current mandated liquidity ratios?

SozBbz

Graham wrote: »

How are our banks over leveraged if the loan book has been collateralised as you suggested?

How are our banks over leveraged if they are operating to current mandated liquidity ratios?

Serious amount of spurious, baseless "information" being thrown around this forum.

Graham

That's what I'm trying to work out SozBbz.

There have been a few posts about over-leveraged banks and high risk BTOs but nothing to back those claims up.

skooterblue2

PhilipsR wrote: »

Some backtrack on previous posts here.

Watch it happen. I predicted over a year ago, the stock market would be in trouble about now. There was a massive extension of credit in Ireland without a manufacturing boom.

skooterblue2

SozBbz wrote: »

Serious amount of spurious, baseless "information" being thrown around this forum.

Have we ever been lied to before by bankers or politicians?

Tasfasdf

skooterblue2 wrote: »

Watch it happen. I predicted over a year ago, the stock market would be in trouble about now. There was a massive extension of credit in Ireland without a manufacturing boom.

Ok, when do you predict would be the best time to buy a house assuming you had jobs?

skooterblue2

Tasfasdf wrote: »

Ok, when do you predict would be the best time to buy a house assuming you had jobs?

A lot of people think this is coronavirus is a hiccup. It will be back to regular business in 4-6 months and all will be grand.

I think this is the start of a bigger financial crash. I think people will realise this coming to Christmas (Nov) things will become clearer to ordinary people by January the market should have bottomed out. I get strange looks from my wife friends at christmas when they were talking about their best year since the 2008 crash. How did this happen.

Big assumption on jobs. A lot of small business cannot last without essential cash flow unlike large corporations (Ryanair, Tesco, etc etc).

Graham

Mod Note

Skooterblue2 if you are going to make very specific claims there is an expectation that you will back them up.

If you just want a generic vent about banks, take it to the appropriate forum.

coolshannagh28

skooterblue2 wrote: »

A lot of people think this is coronavirus is a hiccup. It will be back to regular business in 4-6 months and all will be grand.

I think this is the start of a bigger financial crash. I think people will realise this coming to Christmas (Nov) things will become clearer to ordinary people by January the market should have bottomed out. I get strange looks from my wife friends at christmas when they were talking about their best year since the 2008 crash. How did this happen.

Big assumption on jobs. A lot of small business cannot last without essential cash flow unlike large corporations (Ryanair, Tesco, etc etc).

There was a downturn in business in the first two months of this year in many sectors relating to retail and hospitality , nothing to do with covid 19 which had a lot of business people concerned .

skooterblue2

Fine but watch how history will repeat itself. Banks are designed that you cannot look inwards unless you are inside.
Because I dont have figures and facts doesnt mean it will not happen.
Our Financial institutions are well capitalised and regulated. Didnt Alan Greenspan say that during the 2008 bust?

Graham

Mod Note

skooterblue2 don't post in this thread again.

Idbatterim

say the land values do fall significantly, there should be a reverse nama and the state should be buying it up! Benefit for the greater good for once, unlike the last time, giving it away at idiotic prices and then entering rip off deals like in dundrum :rolleyes:

SozBbz

<SNIP>

Assetbacked

I saw on the ISE this morning Cairn Homes have released a fairly bleak announcement about covid19 impacts to their business.

https://direct.euronext.com/AnnouncementRNSDetails.aspx?id=14476255

Scrapping 2019 dividend, no further share buybacks, no guidance on the current fiscal year will be released either and it has drawn down its €194m credit facility.

Jizique

Assetbacked wrote: »

I saw on the ISE this morning Cairn Homes have released a fairly bleak announcement about covid19 impacts to their business.

https://direct.euronext.com/AnnouncementRNSDetails.aspx?id=14476255

Scrapping 2019 dividend, no further share buybacks, no guidance on the current fiscal year will be released either and it has drawn down its €194m credit facility.

I wonder if RTE has cashed the cheque

SozBbz

Assetbacked wrote: »

I saw on the ISE this morning Cairn Homes have released a fairly bleak announcement about covid19 impacts to their business.

https://direct.euronext.com/AnnouncementRNSDetails.aspx?id=14476255

Scrapping 2019 dividend, no further share buybacks, no guidance on the current fiscal year will be released either and it has drawn down its €194m credit facility.

I don't think many companies will be paying dividends or announcing great results this year. With the exception of the supermarkets and manufacturers of hand sanitiser and other PPE products perhaps.

CaptivePortal

skooterblue2 wrote: »

A lot of people think this is coronavirus is a hiccup. It will be back to regular business in 4-6 months and all will be grand.

I think this is the start of a bigger financial crash. I think people will realise this coming to Christmas (Nov) things will become clearer to ordinary people by January the market should have bottomed out. I get strange looks from my wife friends at christmas when they were talking about their best year since the 2008 crash. How did this happen.

Big assumption on jobs. A lot of small business cannot last without essential cash flow unlike large corporations (Ryanair, Tesco, etc etc).

just pulled out of a house purchase after the vendor refused point blank to re-negotiate price. I quote " this is a health crisis, not an economic one. everything will be normal after 3-4months". He is allegedly a professional in the property game

Mic 1972

CaptivePortal wrote: »

just pulled out of a house purchase after the vendor refused point blank to re-negotiate price. I quote " this is a health crisis, not an economic one. everything will be normal after 3-4months". He is allegedly a professional in the property game

he'll regret it, it will take a while before people can even do a viewing again

voluntary

Many will not sell now, only some will. The opportunities to buy will be good, but there will be few of them. Buying a property now seek value instead of the 'ideal home'. Flexible buyers should be happy but if you're hunting for something specific then mind it may never come.

SozBbz

Mic 1972 wrote: »

he'll regret it, it will take a while before people can even do a viewing again

Maybe he's fine with that?

Claw Hammer

SozBbz wrote: »

No, they're really not. A car loan from a bank is more likely somewhere between 6-9% and much more standard.

Most PCPs are financed by the banks of the manufacturers themselves (like VW Bank) who have so much money they created a bank to lend at below market rates just so they could sell more cars.

Regardless, its not in anyones interests for all of these arrangements to end suddenly. Arrangements will be put in place to get past the current difficulty. A firesale of repossessed cars would 1) cost a fortune to administer and 2) not yeild that much relativly speaking 3) burn otherwise good customers for future business.

Bank of Ireland Finance sells PCP on behalf of Ford, Toyota, Opel, Hyundai and Kia; AIB sells for Nissan, and Renault and Volkswagen use their own in-country banks.

When this is over, the banks will be cash hungry and will lift the cars from driveways and run them through the auctions. the banks have all pushed customers towards PCPs for the very reason that the Consumer Credit Act doesn't apply. It will cost damn all to administer or else they can sell to a vulture fund who will literally do the lifting. The banks will take what they can get and won't hang around for the market to recover. They are long past caring about customers back and won't touch any defaulter with a barge pole again for a long time to come.
They will also appoint receivers to defaulted buy to lets in very short order as well. expect Bidx1 to be very busy for a while.

mariaalice

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Bank of Ireland Finance sells PCP on behalf of Ford, Toyota, Opel, Hyundai and Kia; AIB sells for Nissan, and Renault and Volkswagen use their own in-country banks.

When this is over, the banks will be cash hungry and will lift the cars from driveways and run them through the auctions. the banks have all pushed customers towards PCPs for the very reason that the Consumer Credit Act doesn't apply. It will cost damn all to administer or else they can sell to a vulture fund who will literally do the lifting. The banks will take what they can get and won't hang around for the market to recover. They are long past caring about customers back and won't touch any defaulter with a barge pole again for a long time to come.
They will also appoint receivers to defaulted buy to lets in very short order as well. expect Bidx1 to be very busy for a while.

You are cheery, the government is covering 70% of people's income the crucial fact will be how quick the recovery will be and if everybody get their job back.

cnocbui

voluntary wrote: »

Many will not sell now, only some will. The opportunities to buy will be good, but there will be few of them. Buying a property now seek value instead of the 'ideal home'. Flexible buyers should be happy but if you're hunting for something specific then mind it may never come.

I sure won't be putting my house on the market at less than it's replacement value worth. I want to sell, but don't have to and can afford to wait until things normalize.

landofthetree

mariaalice wrote: »

You are cheery, the government is covering 70% of people's income the crucial fact will be how quick the recovery will be and if everybody get their job back.

It's not sustainable to do that more than a few months.

That's the big problem. When will this end?

Will small businesses be able to come back?

SozBbz

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Bank of Ireland Finance sells PCP on behalf of Ford, Toyota, Opel, Hyundai and Kia; AIB sells for Nissan, and Renault and Volkswagen use their own in-country banks.

When this is over, the banks will be cash hungry and will lift the cars from driveways and run them through the auctions. the banks have all pushed customers towards PCPs for the very reason that the Consumer Credit Act doesn't apply. It will cost damn all to administer or else they can sell to a vulture fund who will literally do the lifting. The banks will take what they can get and won't hang around for the market to recover. They are long past caring about customers back and won't touch any defaulter with a barge pole again for a long time to come.
They will also appoint receivers to defaulted buy to lets in very short order as well. expect Bidx1 to be very busy for a while.

Absolute nonsense. Repossessing items is very expensive and theres no way they'd go to all that trouble when the govt are making not insubstantial payments to bolster incomes of those most affected.

Finally, you need to first take legal action in order to repossess anything, and our courts have all but shut down. So how do you think this would happen?

Claw Hammer

mariaalice wrote: »

You are cheery, the government is covering 70% of people's income the crucial fact will be how quick the recovery will be and if everybody get their job back.

The reality is, this whole process is going to take several months. Many businesses will not reopen. Many people will not get their jobs back because their former business will not be as active as before. It will take a long time for tourism to recover and for business travel to become as frequent as before. The banks will have been haemorrhaging cash for months in allowing moratoriums on mortgages and other payments. There were not particularly strong before this happened and will be in bits when it's over. Owners of clothing shops will still have winter stock on the shelves and nothing bought in for the summer. They will all the landlords of the premises several months rent and will find any potential customers very careful with their money.

SozBbz

landofthetree wrote: »

It's not sustainable to do that more than a few months.

That's the big problem. When will this end?

Will small businesses be able to come back?

How many times do people have to be told that this will not go on forever.

The negativity on this forum is so draining and counterproductive.

With attitudes like that, yes, we'll be on our knees forever and ever. Thankfully Boards is not representative of the overall population, or I'd actually be worried.

ittakestwo

CaptivePortal wrote: »

just pulled out of a house purchase after the vendor refused point blank to re-negotiate price. I quote " this is a health crisis, not an economic one. everything will be normal after 3-4months". He is allegedly a professional in the property game

Was it the vendor or the EA who said that? If it was vendor well fair enough. You dont know who you are dealing with when buying/selling. They could be a complete ostrich with their head in the sand. But if it was an EA who said that I would be annoyed. They are actually insulting your intelligence if they expect you to believe that.

guyfawkes5

voluntary wrote: »

Many will not sell now, only some will. The opportunities to buy will be good, but there will be few of them. Buying a property now seek value instead of the 'ideal home'. Flexible buyers should be happy but if you're hunting for something specific then mind it may never come.

This is good advice. A lot of sellers will hold off, and a lot were even last year as house prices levelled off and the market for buyers was noticeably drier in terms of quality.

There are definitely bargains to be had in the next six months to a year, but these will typically be from motivated sellers and not people finally letting go of prime real estate.