Property Market 2020

Claw Hammer

SozBbz wrote: »

Absolute nonsense. Repossessing items is very expensive and theres no way they'd go to all that trouble when the govt are making not insubstantial payments to bolster incomes of those most affected.

Finally, you need to first take legal action in order to repossess anything, and our courts have all but shut down. So how do you think this would happen?

There is little or no expense involved in taking a car back from PCP. There is no legal formality, just drive up and use a set of spare keys keys hop in, and drive off. The bank already owns the car and it can be driven into an auction yard and sold the same day. Couldn't be easier.

There will be many people defaulting notwithstanding the government payouts which are in fact quite limited and many people will be getting substantially less than they would have earned.

Graham

Mod Note

folks please take the PCP debate to the appropriate forum.

CaptivePortal

SozBbz wrote: »

Maybe he's fine with that?

he seemed to think he will continue to get the rent he was previously getting prior to deciding to sell.

Graham

Sounds like there's two parties to the transaction each taking completely different guesses on what way the market will change.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

I see the markets are up significantly in the US.

Anyone know any more detail if that recovery will help the Irish market?

garhjw

SozBbz wrote: »

How many times do people have to be told that this will not go on forever.

The negativity on this forum is so draining and counterproductive.

With attitudes like that, yes, we'll be on our knees forever and ever. Thankfully Boards is not representative of the overall population, or I'd actually be worried.

Totally agree with you. This whole episode has really highlighted to me the issues of social media and online forums. Some truly bad and mad people out there. I really wonder what goes on in people’s heads sometimes.

pearcider

garhjw wrote: »

Totally agree with you. This whole episode has really highlighted to me the issues of social media and online forums. Some truly bad and mad people out there. I really wonder what goes on in people’s heads sometimes.

Sorry your property value is going down but I don’t see how people who want cheaper homes and cheaper rents are inherently evil. The rent and house inflation over the past 8 years was a con anyway founded on cheap money that the central banks created from nothing and backed by nothing. The system is rotten and I don’t see how people are mad or bad to not want to be a slave to the banks and foreign investment funds for 30 or 40 years.

landofthetree

garhjw wrote: »

Totally agree with you. This whole episode has really highlighted to me the issues of social media and online forums. Some truly bad and mad people out there. I really wonder what goes on in people’s heads sometimes.

Can you tell us when all this C19 crisis will end? No you cant.

Its no surprise people are predicting economic trouble in such circumstances.

Knex*

Pheonix10 wrote: »

I see the markets are up significantly in the US.

Anyone know any more detail if that recovery will help the Irish market?

I would guess that's more likely to be a bit of a dead bounce, and we'll see another day of major drops within a day or two.

Claw Hammer

SozBbz wrote: »

How many times do people have to be told that this will not go on forever.

The negativity on this forum is so draining and counterproductive.

With attitudes like that, yes, we'll be on our knees forever and ever. Thankfully Boards is not representative of the overall population, or I'd actually be worried.

It will go on for several moths yet with the consequences lasting years. Better get used to it.

pearcider

Claw Hammer wrote: »

It will go on for several moths yet with the consequences lasting years. Better get used to it.

Try several years. The West has responded to their already bankrupt financial institutions with even more debt. Guess what. The answer to being in too much debt is not to take out another loan. The best case scenario we can hope for is that the west goes Japanese ie a long decline with debt to gdp hitting 200% and then the inevitable default and liquidation. Property bulls should note that Japanese property prices peaked in 1989 and have still not recovered.

However I don’t think we will be that lucky. Japan’s society is significantly more resilient and unified than that of Europe or the US. The average Japanese person has huge savings and they don’t use credit cards. Most people in the west have huge debts most of which is collateralized with depreciating assets like vehicles and property.

tobsey

pearcider wrote: »

Sorry your property value is going down but I don’t see how people who want cheaper homes and cheaper rents are inherently evil. The rent and house inflation over the past 8 years was a con anyway founded on cheap money that the central banks created from nothing and backed by nothing. The system is rotten and I don’t see how people are mad or bad to not want to be a slave to the banks and foreign investment funds for 30 or 40 years.

That's fair enough but are the people who paid their mortgage for the last 10,15,20 years inherintly evil for wanting to sell their house for as much as possible when they decide to move? People talk about reducing house prices as if there's only one side to the deal.

garhjw

pearcider wrote: »

Sorry your property value is going down but I don’t see how people who want cheaper homes and cheaper rents are inherently evil. The rent and house inflation over the past 8 years was a con anyway founded on cheap money that the central banks created from nothing and backed by nothing. The system is rotten and I don’t see how people are mad or bad to not want to be a slave to the banks and foreign investment funds for 30 or 40 years.

I don’t care what value my properties are. I don’t have any debt and I am not looking to buy or sell. You clearly have a chip on your shoulder about affordability of property and/or rents. You don’t have a clue what you are talking about like the majority of people on this forum. If you read the tone of some posts, yours included, they are revelling in this like it’s a good thing. Many people are getting sick and dying, losing jobs and livelihoods etc and all you can say is how great it is as you think the “system” is crashing. Cop yourself on along with the other doom merchants.

Limpy

A house may/will lose value in the long term. If that house will be yours then its a better return/investment then paying rent for ever.

pearcider

garhjw wrote: »

I don’t care what value my properties are. I don’t have any debt and I am not looking to buy or sell. You clearly have a chip on your shoulder about affordability of property and/or rents. You don’t have a clue what you are talking about like the majority of people on this forum. If you read the tone of some posts, yours included, they are revelling in this like it’s a good thing. Many people are getting sick and dying, losing jobs and livelihoods etc and all you can say is how great it is as you think the “system” is crashing. Cop yourself on along with the other doom merchants.

I’ll keep posting my opinions thank you and we will let people hear both sides of the debate and not just the landlord. You have a vested interest at least that is now clear to all. I would also say I was a property bear in the 2019 thread and posted numerous times saying how unstable the bubble economy was and people should not be leveraging their future to a fake economy. So “people getting sick and dying” has nothing to do with my argument.

pearcider

tobsey wrote: »

That's fair enough but are the people who paid their mortgage for the last 10,15,20 years inherintly evil for wanting to sell their house for as much as possible when they decide to move? People talk about reducing house prices as if there's only one side to the deal.

I was responding to soz bbz calling people mad and bad for merely pointing out the mad bad financial system we have.

garhjw

pearcider wrote: »

I’ll keep posting my opinions thank you and we will let people hear both sides of the debate and not just the landlord. You have a vested interest at least that is now clear to all. I would also say I was a property bear in the 2019 thread and posted numerous times saying how unstable the bubble economy was and people should not be leveraging their future to a fake economy. So “people getting sick and dying” has nothing to do with my argument.

I care more about people dying and losing their jobs. What’s my vested interest? I’m a landlord? So what. Good for you that you were a bear in 2019. Pat yourself on the back that you foresaw all this.

coolshannagh28

pearcider wrote: »

Try several years. The West has responded to their already bankrupt financial institutions with even more debt. Guess what. The answer to being in too much debt is not to take out another loan. The best case scenario we can hope for is that the west goes Japanese ie a long decline with debt to gdp hitting 200% and then the inevitable default and liquidation. Property bulls should note that Japanese property prices peaked in 1989 and have still not recovered.

However I don’t think we will be that lucky. Japan’s society is significantly more resilient and unified than that of Europe or the US. The average Japanese person has huge savings and they don’t use credit cards. Most people in the west have huge debts most of which is collateralized with depreciating assets like vehicles and property.

Just as an aside . the S+P 500 did not recover to its 1929 high for nearly 30 years.

mcbert

garhjw wrote: »

I care more about people dying and losing their jobs. What’s my vested interest? I’m a landlord? So what. Good for you that you were a bear in 2019. Pat yourself on the back that you foresaw all this.

This is a property foum. To talk about the property market. In 2020. There are lots of other threads that are talking about people dying and job losses.

Idbatterim

we still have a growing population, I can see this being like the last bust in a way. Supply dries up, people have to live somewhere and construction lead times are so slow, building freezes, prices drop, but wont be surprised if we are back to where we are now in a few years with prices...

The sky isnt going to fall in and nobody will be dying of starvation in this country. Nobody will be booted out of their homes either...

Donald Trump

pearcider wrote: »

Try several years. The West has responded to their already bankrupt financial institutions with even more debt. Guess what. The answer to being in too much debt is not to take out another loan. The best case scenario we can hope for is that the west goes Japanese ie a long decline with debt to gdp hitting 200% and then the inevitable default and liquidation. Property bulls should note that Japanese property prices peaked in 1989 and have still not recovered.

However I don’t think we will be that lucky. Japan’s society is significantly more resilient and unified than that of Europe or the US. The average Japanese person has huge savings and they don’t use credit cards. Most people in the west have huge debts most of which is collateralized with depreciating assets like vehicles and property.

Japanese stock market is also still much lower than in 1989 (about half).

Zero or negative inflation means that people will also hold onto their money and spend it later. There is no incentive to spend it under those circumstances. Hence why they might have a better tendency to save. That is not great for the economy either. Rates have been negative for a long time in Japan.

garhjw

mcbert wrote: »

This is a property foum. To talk about the property market. In 2020. There are lots of other threads that are talking about people dying and job losses.

As I’ve said before It is the tone and delight some people are taking in the fact property prices will be affected.

Claw Hammer

Idbatterim wrote: »

we still have a growing population, I can see this being like the last bust in a way. Supply dries up, people have to live somewhere and construction lead times are so slow, building freezes, prices drop, but wont be surprised if we are back to where we are now in a few years with prices...

The sky isnt going to fall in and nobody will be dying of starvation in this country. Nobody will be booted out of their homes either...

Plenty will be booted out. In 3 months there will be a new negative equity generation. There will be receivers appointed to the properties of defaulting landlords. There will be numerous unravelled PIAs.

The churn will be massive.

tax Revenues will have fallen of a cliff and there will be massive new government debt. If and when the IMF comes back, there will be no more Mister Nice Guy.

Idbatterim

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Plenty will be booted out. In 3 months there will be a new negative equity generation. There will be receivers appointed to the properties of defaulting landlords. There will be numerous unravelled PIAs.

The churn will be massive.

tax Revenues will have fallen of a cliff and there will be massive new government debt. If and when the IMF comes back, there will be no more Mister Nice Guy.

I cant see that happening in the time frame you are talking about, not in these circumstances, there are literally no cosequences here to piss taking evening during normal times, with this **** storm?

the negative equity isnt a huge issue, if you dont plan on moving.


If they come back in , I agree, they can sort out the problems here. But no doubt they will leave it , like last time, to the irish government to sort, so basically, do nothing, just sign on the dotted line for more debt :rolleyes:

tax revenue will be problematic like you say, I can see them printing money and perhaps even some national debt write offs...

landofthetree

Limpy wrote: »

A house may/will lose value in the long term. If that house will be yours then its a better return/investment then paying rent for ever.

House worth 400k.

Could drop 20% according to Davys.

So 100k less plus all the interest on it.

Big savings if it happens. Renting can save you a lot in many cases.

PommieBast

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Many businesses will not reopen. Many people will not get their jobs back because their former business will not be as active as before.

Several pubs in Dublin city centre have already boarded up doors and/or windows. At best not expecting a quick rebound..

Ronaldinho

PommieBast wrote: »

Several pubs in Dublin city centre have already boarded up doors and/or windows. At best not expecting a quick rebound..

As much to do with security as anything I'd have said.

But I'd say their doors will be shut for a couple of months alright.

Mic 1972

With so many rental properties becoming available at affordable prices it shouldn't be a big problem to postpone buying until end of the year. The 20% decline will be slow, it won't happen overnight

Zenify

What do people think is a possible range for property to fall?

JJJackal

Mic 1972 wrote: »

With so many rental properties becoming available at affordable prices it shouldn't be a big problem to postpone buying until end of the year. The 20% decline will be slow, it won't happen overnight

There will few properties sold for 16 weeks