Ulster vs Munster, Fri 3 Jan, 7:35pm, Eir

razorblunt

In fairness Cooney vs Murray should not really be a debate. Murray is haunted Alby wasn’t retained that would have been an elephant in the room, not that it wasn’t already.

Zzippy

Faugheen wrote: »

Prove it. I couldn’t give a ****e what your memory says. Give me cold hard facts and I’ll entertain it.

Mod: Calm down and stop posting in such an aggressive manner. You've been warned previously, so cop on or head on.

theVersatile

In fairness, its true Cooney scores more tries from those kind of support lines - even this season he's scored probably four or five in this manner. However I think a lot of that comes from Ulster's ability to break the line vs Munster.

Take the Overall Stats sheet available here from the Pro14
https://www.pro14rugby.org/media-resource-opta-stats/

A quick glance will show that Ulster players are plastered all over the "clean breaks" stats. Gilroy, Balacoune, Reidy, Lyttle, Faddes. Shane Daly is the only Munster player in the list - and I'm not sure he's even played with Murray bar the Ulster game just gone. Murray hasn't the opportunity to lick up these easy scores because the line breaks aren't being made.

That said, I don't think Cooneys line running is any way better than Murray's. If someone were to come up with some arbitrary percentage/ratio like Support Lines per Line Break, (e.g if Player X runs 17 positive lines from a total of 21 teammate linebreaks his "Support Score" would be 0.81 or 81%) I would imagine they would be similar across both players, and probably most nines in world rugby. (Slightly weighted towards faster nines such as Cooney, Blade and on a wider scale the likes of Perenara and Aaron Smith) - they would be similar purely due to the fact that it's a basic facet of playing nine.

You don't get to play professional rugby as a nine if you don't run those lines, it's as straight forward as that. Murray, Blade, Cooney, McGrath, JGP - they runs these lines so often and a lot of the time don't even get picked up on TV. Hell, even other players run these positive lines. Good opensides will use these lines to get to rucks from wide strike moves as quickly as possible. Tens run lines through the defence after giving flat passes, just look at Frawley today.

Saying a nine runs less or more of these lines than another nine from observation is likely false. Using tries as a way of proving the superiority of one nine over another is silly, as that is more down to the team as a whole making attacking breaks than the nines running the lines they run many times a game.

theVersatile

As an addition, people seem to think that Murray is box kicking for the craic or his own personal gain instead of following instructions from coaching staff and executing a game plan. I doubt Joe or JVG would've stuck with him if he was kicking the ball away against the will of the coaching staff...

shootermacg

Granny15 wrote: »

I think Cooney works harder for his team than any scrumhalf on the island.

He also scores more tries and points than any other scrumhalf.

He also box kicks less than Murray who overuses the box kick tactic outside his 22 which has proven to be limited and useless after the 2018 Grand Slam.

Thought we put that to bed. If you look at all the successful teams, Sarries, England, SA they all play a very basic game, which includes plenty of ....that's right .... box kicks.

Granny15

theVersatile wrote: »

In fairness, its true Cooney scores more tries from those kind of support lines - even this season he's scored probably four or five in this manner. However I think a lot of that comes from Ulster's ability to break the line vs Munster.

Take the Overall Stats sheet available here from the Pro14
https://www.pro14rugby.org/media-resource-opta-stats/

A quick glance will show that Ulster players are plastered all over the "clean breaks" stats. Gilroy, Balacoune, Reidy, Lyttle, Faddes. Shane Daly is the only Munster player in the list - and I'm not sure he's even played with Murray bar the Ulster game just gone. Murray hasn't the opportunity to lick up these easy scores because the line breaks aren't being made.

That said, I don't think Cooneys line running is any way better than Murray's. If someone were to come up with some arbitrary percentage/ratio like Support Lines per Line Break, (e.g if Player X runs 17 positive lines from a total of 21 teammate linebreaks his "Support Score" would be 0.81 or 81%) I would imagine they would be similar across both players, and probably most nines in world rugby. (Slightly weighted towards faster nines such as Cooney, Blade and on a wider scale the likes of Perenara and Aaron Smith) - they would be similar purely due to the fact that it's a basic facet of playing nine.

You don't get to play professional rugby as a nine if you don't run those lines, it's as straight forward as that. Murray, Blade, Cooney, McGrath, JGP - they runs these lines so often and a lot of the time don't even get picked up on TV. Hell, even other players run these positive lines. Good opensides will use these lines to get to rucks from wide strike moves as quickly as possible. Tens run lines through the defence after giving flat passes, just look at Frawley today.

Saying a nine runs less or more of these lines than another nine from observation is likely false. Using tries as a way of proving the superiority of one nine over another is silly, as that is more down to the team as a whole making attacking breaks than the nines running the lines they run many times a game.

Very thorough and insightful analysis. That's the kind of analysis i can get behind and concede my points on. I have always said that stats are misleading and can be used to paint a picture from either end of a spectrum and that they only show much of a picture without giving root causes behind them.

Perhaps Murray isn't reaping the rewards of a team running rampant at home 50% of the games in the season and perhaps Murray is up in support and just doesn't get to finish. Maybe he's not that kind of player and has other strengths we haven't highlighted using stats yet. I'm sure there are plenty of areas he is better than his counterparts.

I noticed a trend from memory perhaps false and misleading as we usually see what we want to see rather than what actually factually occurs. In my defence i went with what struck me from watching Cooney and i thought i noticed a trend albeit going on both players current form. I didnt have access to historical data but the point probably still holds up albeit with mitigating circumstances as highlighted above.

What is important though is that the stats on their own are misleading without giving root causes or reasons behind them. More of this analysis from everyone who are used to posting stats and establishing them as facts without highlighting mitigating circumstances. Well done.

Granny15

shootermacg wrote: »

Thought we put that to bed. If you look at all the successful teams, Sarries, England, SA they all play a very basic game, which includes plenty of ....that's right .... box kicks.

Yes and all those teams you list have massive packs and solid defences. they just move up the park and station themselves where the player is tackledd conceding very little ground. Might not be the best tactic for the smaller and more mobile ireland and munster teams.

Granny15

theVersatile wrote: »

As an addition, people seem to think that Murray is box kicking for the craic or his own personal gain instead of following instructions from coaching staff and executing a game plan. I doubt Joe or JVG would've stuck with him if he was kicking the ball away against the will of the coaching staff...

I'm a fullback. By nature i want to see the ball spread wide and get annoyed if it isn't. I believe that players get a certain amount of leeway to play their own game inside a gameplan and that includes making judgements on when it is best to box kick.

It strikes me that Murray errs on the side of doing this too much maybe backing his ability to kick high accurate balls which he is admittedly the best in the world at. I believe the overreliance on this largely falls on the scrumhalf who takes those decisions within the game and teams gameplan.

I do think there is an element of selfishness to it maybe backing yourself and your own skillset too much when faith should be shown in teammates a bit more. I see it all the way up in all levels of the game and players need to be reprimanded for it in my view especially when the tactic isnt working and the team/scrumhalf persist with it.

shootermacg

Granny15 wrote: »

Yes and all those teams you list have massive packs and solid defences. they just move up the park and station themselves where the player is tackledd conceding very little ground. Might not be the best tactic for the smaller and more mobile ireland and munster teams.

Nothing to do with big forwards. It's a bloody box kick, if you're relying on your forwards to catch it, then you're doing it wrong..... The whole idea of box kicks is it gives you a chance to retain possession outside of pressure areas.

jm08

For the Rugby World Cup selection at SH, the following issues would have had to be factored in by Schmidt.

1. The need to bring 3 OHs as both Sexton & Carbery were not fully fit. He then ended up with 2 SHs.
2. Luke McGrath played with Sexton at Provincial level and Conor Murray plays with Carbery (though not as much as needed due to injury). I don't think Cooney played with the other OHs.
3. Marmion's form has been a bit off his usual performance levels, so not surprised really that Luke McGrath got picked.

Not saying that Schmidt was right by the way, just some rationale as to why he made the selections he did. I actually think the mistake was bringing Carbery as he really wasn't fit which messed around with the selections.

Sinbad_NI

I'm more amazed about the way Joe didn't fancy McCloskey TBH.

I know there's other options at centre, but take Ali for example. A Joe player if ever there was one.
Don't see what he did that was light years ahead of McCloskey apparently.
Both similarly as good at the bash ball but I think Stu offers so much more with his offloading and soft hands.
Where is Aki so hugely better, or where do you think Joe thought he was so much better?
I'll admit I don't watch every Connaught game.

Bazzo

Sinbad_NI wrote: »

I'm more amazed about the way Joe didn't fancy McCloskey TBH.

I know there's other options at centre, but take Ali for example. A Joe player if ever there was one.
Don't see what he did that was light years ahead of McCloskey apparently.
Both similarly as good at the bash ball but I think Stu offers so much more with his offloading and soft hands.
Where is Aki so hugely better, or where do you think Joe thought he was so much better?
I'll admit I don't watch every Connaught game.

Aki is an absolute gamebreaking player for Connacht, probably equal to if not moreso than McCloskey is for Ulster, very good all round game but that is extremely difficult to translate to international. Joe probably liked him so much because he is an absolute defensive rock and massive breakdown threat. In defense it's like playing with an extra flanker.

Henry Ford III

Bit of a low ebb Munster wise. Hopefully it'll improve soon.

I think we've lost 4 of the last 6 games.

thebaz

jm08 wrote: »

For the Rugby World Cup selection at SH, the following issues would have had to be factored in by Schmidt.

1. The need to bring 3 OHs as both Sexton & Carbery were not fully fit. He then ended up with 2 SHs.
2. Luke McGrath played with Sexton at Provincial level and Conor Murray plays with Carbery (though not as much as needed due to injury). I don't think Cooney played with the other OHs.
3. Marmion's form has been a bit off his usual performance levels, so not surprised really that Luke McGrath got picked.

Why did Joe not factor in giving Cooney a decent run in the 6 Nations, for an out of sorts Murray, rather than 5 minute cameos ?? these excuses were trotted out as Ireland stuttered around the WC in Japan, with many including Joe believing these undroppables would play themselves back into form, needless to say it never happened

Sinbad_NI

Bazzo wrote: »

Aki is an absolute gamebreaking player for Connacht, probably equal to if not moreso than McCloskey is for Ulster, very good all round game but that is extremely difficult to translate to international. Joe probably liked him so much because he is an absolute defensive rock and massive breakdown threat. In defense it's like playing with an extra flanker.

What I'm trying to say is I found it strange that 2 similar players, both game changers and key men for their provincial teams can have such different international fortunes

1 almost guaranteed starter.
Other doesn't even get in an extended squad, after not much more than a quick look at him a few years ago.

Another very strange Joe call in my view.

McCloskey's another who may benefit from his team playing well and being well coached and generally raising their game while he's been at the same level of consistently for a few years now.