US take out Suleimani - mod warning in OP

Tired Gardener

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/03/oil-prices-spike-after-us-drone-strike-kills-iranian-general

4% increase already, I suspect it will go a lot higher.

Pretty **** way to start the first week of 2020, an event which may just trigger WW3.

Fun times ☹️

rockatansky

This world war 3 talk is a bit far fetched.

The US has not directly confronted Russia or China.

Elmer Blooker

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

The Gulf Cooperation Council, the European Union and the United States all decried the election as illegitimate and a farce.State employees and civilians were told to vote assad or face interrogation.

The Gulf Cooperation Council based in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia criticised the lack of democracy in Syria .... thanks anyway ILYV for sharing this.

4068ac1elhodqr

Most major markets down 1%, Brent $68.5 (touched 70 earlier), GoldSpot $1545 and even BTC 7.2k is being seen as a safer haven.

J Mysterio

rockatansky wrote: »

This world war 3 talk is a bit far fetched.

The US has not directly confronted Russia or China.

If you recall, WW1 resulted from the escalation of conflict arising from the assassination of Franz Ferdinand. These things can spiral out of control.

I don't think WW3 will happen now, but who knows where things go from here? The point is that this was a deeply irresponsible act from a wild, wreckless and aggressive US led by a maniacal sociopath.

Either way, this will beget more suffering and death, just a question of scale.

Tired Gardener

rockatansky wrote: »

This world war 3 talk is a bit far fetched.

The US has not directly confronted Russia or China.

It isn't that far fetched, it does have the potential to escalate to that level. Look how WW1 started, that was a small event that dragged nation after nation into a conflict that killed millions.

This wasn't a small event, and is hard to know what it will cause, however it may not escalate, and just fizzle out. Either way there is going to be heightened tension and uncertainty for a while. That and oil/petrol/diesel go up in price.

J Mysterio

Lena Muscular Headphones wrote: »

Most major markets down 1%, Brent $68.5 (touched 70 earlier), GoldSpot $1545 and even BTC 7.2k is being seen as a safer haven.

I hope you managed to make some money out of this

Nitty Gritty

The thread is actually readable now I've put vibes on block, much better.

NIMAN

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.asp

Iran are very powerful military wise.

14th in the world?

Iraq was meant to be a great army too, look how much resistance they put up.

GooglePlus

J Mysterio wrote: »

If you recall, WW1 resulted from the escalation of conflict arising from the assassination of Franz Ferdinand. These things can spiral out of control.

I don't think WW3 will happen now, but who knows where things go from here? The point is that this was a deeply irresponsible act from a wild, wreckless and aggressive US led by a maniacal sociopath.

Either way, this will beget more suffering and death, just a question of scale.

WW3 is a lot less likely to happen thanks to the mutually assured destruction of all parties.

If it wasn't for the Nuke, we'd probably be talking about WW4 or 5 kicking off.

rockatansky

The world is a very different place from the early 20th Century. Saying look at how WW 1 or 2 started doesn't apply here.

What country does Iran have treaties with that call for it to be protected if they are attacked. They are good business customers for Russia and China.

nacho libre

ArchXStanton wrote: »

The US only have themselves to blame for its relationship with Iran, this all dates back to their meddling in its affairs decades ago, what people don't seem to realise is anywhere the US goes, death, destruction and chaos follows, they're the common denominator

I fully realise it. I hate to give Kudos to Donald twice in one thread, but he at least showed refreshing honesty when he admitted The Saudis make us a lot of money therefore he cannot sever ties with them despite them being every bit as bad as Iran. It made a change from politicians pretending it's all about democracy and spreading human rights. Yet there are still people who will have you believe America have the moral authority to act as they do in pursuit of their geo political aims. You need look no further than the thread title. I can imagine the killing of an American general by a foreign power would not be descibed as "taking someone out"

4068ac1elhodqr

J Mysterio wrote: »

I hope you managed to make some money out of this

What a strange comment.
Don't have access to a crystal ball, or pre-sight/insight/remote viewing access to the sudden intentions of the mighty Donald.

However anyone would be well 'advised' to top up their central heating as $68 isn't too high as yet, if Brent gets to $80 you'd have to notch down the temperature a degree or two to get the same heating effect duration for the duration of Winter.

rossie1977

NIMAN wrote: »

14th in the world?

Iraq was meant to be a great army too, look how much resistance they put up.

Massive difference. One Iran is much bigger (about 4 times bigger) and terrain is very mountainous whereas Iraq was mostly flat desert.

An invasion of Iran would be disastrous. Would be like attempting an invasion of Switzerland only a much much bigger Switzerland.

4068ac1elhodqr

NIMAN wrote: »

14th in the world?
Iraq was meant to be a great army too, look how much resistance they put up.

Indeed, they were finished of any potential advantage, and all within a very few short days, due to air superiority, and what is known as 'steel rain'.

The only single risk with these lot, is if the great Bear decide they want to take a messy gamble and stick their fingers in the furnace (hopefully for everyone's sake, they'll step back).

NIMAN

rossie1977 wrote: »

Massive difference. One Iran is much bigger (about 4 times bigger) and terrain is very mountainous whereas Iraq was mostly flat desert.

An invasion of Iran would be disastrous. Would be like attempting an invasion of Switzerland only a much much bigger Switzerland.

Don't be daft.
If the US has a war with Iran, there will be no invasion.

It will simply involve bombs being dropped from the air.

War has changed.

igCorcaigh

I don't see a big war between USA and Iran.
But I fear for Iraq and the region.
This is such a retrograde step by Trump.

utyh2ikcq9z76b

NIMAN wrote: »

Don't be daft.
If the US has a war with Iran, there will be no invasion.

It will simply involve bombs being dropped from the air.

War has changed.

Indeed it has changed, hence Iran setting up proxy's all over the region

igCorcaigh

NIMAN wrote: »

Don't be daft.
If the US has a war with Iran, there will be no invasion.

It will simply involve bombs being dropped from the air.

War has changed.

Well that's true to an extent, but anywhere that experiences the bombs from the air, it is war on the ground. It's destabilising, and people suffer.

jmreire

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

If Iran do take out a Israel target, and the US was to respond in kind then Iran would wipe Israel off the map.

Having experienced the milk of human kindness in the recent past, I don't think that there will be any full scale attack on Israel...by anyone. I seem to remember Netanyahu saying that if Iran ever attacked Israel, Iran as it is, would cease to exist. Given Israeli responses to any provocation,they are not making idle threat's either.

rossie1977

Lena Muscular Headphones wrote: »

Any talk of this happening due to impeachment is nonsese.

In fact since that PR exercise, Trump's odds have been the shortest (1.80) below evens, they've ever been for POTUS20.

.

Trump and his team don't look at betting sites. They base their forecasts on polling both internally and externally.

Polling Trump is doing very poorly. Latest polls have him losing in Florida and Texas. There was even talk that Trump would attempt to try and win Oregon/Washington state because how far behind they were in rust belt.

Since that report came out we have had the Ukraine bribery attempts and now this..

SaintLeibowitz

J Mysterio wrote: »

If you recall, WW1 resulted from the escalation of conflict arising from the assassination of Franz Ferdinand. These things can spiral out of control.

I don't think WW3 will happen now, but who knows where things go from here? The point is that this was a deeply irresponsible act from a wild, wreckless and aggressive US led by a maniacal sociopath.

Either way, this will beget more suffering and death, just a question of scale.

These sort of acts are spearheaded by the american military complex. There is a lot of money to be made from conflicts by companies such as Halliburton, Lockheed Martin etc. .

igCorcaigh

Nova Thousands Greenback wrote: »

Indeed it has changed, hence Iran setting up proxy's all over the region

Yes, when there is a bigger power, the lesser power uses alternative force. Call it terrorism if you want, but this is what happens.

rossie1977

NIMAN wrote: »

Don't be daft.
If the US has a war with Iran, there will be no invasion.

It will simply involve bombs being dropped from the air.

War has changed.

Trump wants regime change in Iran, Republicans in general have wanted one for four decades. You can't accomplish that without boots on ground.

NIMAN

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Well that's true to an extent, but anywhere that experiences the bombs from the air, it is war on the ground. It's destabilising, and people suffer.

Totally agree with that, but you think the US care?

They never have.

They will bomb Iran to pieces and destroy their military, and not give a toss about anything else.

And their population will celebrate a victory, just like they did with Iraq.

Tired Gardener

rockatansky wrote: »

The world is a very different place from the early 20th Century. Saying look at how WW 1 or 2 started doesn't apply here.

What country does Iran have treaties with that call for it to be protected of they are attacked. They are good business customers for Russia and China.

The world may be a different place, but that doesn't rule out a large multi nation conflict that has a high mortality rate. The events of WW1 happened while Europe was a powder keg waiting to go off, the Middle East has been a powder keg waiting to go off for quite time. The world is interconnected via trade, mutual agreement, shared faith, etc. This could gain Iran new allies as the USA could be seen as an aggressor.

It is an unknown, what is known is that:

1) the Middle East is a very complex region with a lot of tension.
2) the USA has just assassinated a country's top general while he was visiting an ally country.
3) Iran has one of the world's most important straits as it's boarder, which has had growing tension for a while.
4) Iran and Saudi Arabia have been engaged in a proxy war for a good number of years.

It is very safe to say that there is a potential that this could escalate into a much larger conflict.

Never underestimate the importance or significance of small events.

keepalive213

When they say the Trump administration ordered the bombing im wondering if The Donald gave the order or was it some military commander.
How can a maniac like Trump be in a position to make decisions like that, its crazy.

jmreire

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

It wasn't the russian invasion ....it was soleimini ....he put isis on the ropes

No he did not..for many years he helped to keep isis and the anti-Assad forces at bay, but even with him helping them, the regime was on the point of collapse, and it was at this point the Russian's entered the fray. Had they not done so, Assad would surely be gone...and what would have happened then? Another Libya or Iraq...competing factions fighting for control in a destroyed Country. Bear in mind, that the war is still ongoing in Syria...Idlib now being the focal point. And for sure, what is happening in Iraq will affect Syria too.

rockatansky

Tired Gardener wrote: »

The world may be a different place, but that doesn't rule out a large multi nation conflict that has a high mortality rate. The events of WW1 happened while Europe was a powder keg waiting to go off, the Middle East has been a powder keg waiting to go off for quite time. The world is interconnected via trade, mutual agreement, shared faith, etc. This could gain Iran new allies as the USA could be seen as an aggressor.

It is an unknown, what is known is that:

1) the Middle East is a very complex region with a lot of tension.
2) the USA has just assassinated a country's top general while he was visiting an ally country.
3) Iran has one of the world's most important straits as it's boarder, which has had growing tension for a while.
4) Iran and Saudi Arabia have been engaged in a proxy war for a good number of years.

It is very safe to say that there is a potential that this could escalate into a much larger conflict.

Never underestimate the importance or significance of small events.

None of the big players are going to fall in behind Iran, they are seen as one step down from North Korea.

rockatansky

keepalive213 wrote: »

When they say the Trump administration ordered the bombing im wondering if The Donald gave the order or was it some military commander.
How can a maniac like Trump be in a position to make decisions like that, its crazy.

100% Trump. I'd say there were plenty of his own in the joint Chiefs advising against it as they know this takes overall targeting to a new level that were probably seen as off limits before this.