An Taoiseach Michael Martin

is_that_so

theguzman wrote: »

Fianna Fail will win power 100% guaranteed, Rural Ireland will backlash at Leo Varadkar, the D4 elite gay half Indian is a harder sell to Rural Ireland than Trump is to California or Hillary Clinton to Alabama.

Eh they just need to sell the local option and I doubt any of them would be characterised like this. Oh and he's from Castleknock, which is D15!

Asitis2019

My observations:-

First, I don't see that there is going to be a significant difference in the composition of the Dail after the next election. FF will emerge as the largest party, with close to 60 seats. Actually, I think FG will gain slightly, but will remain with 50 or slightly less. Labour will gain, but not enough to return to coalition (10-12 seats). Greens will gain (5-7 seats), but hardly enough to govern. I don't think the SDs or Aontu will be any more significant than they were before the election, but maybe a little bit.

Second, I think we are looking at another confidence and supply, this time in reverse with FF supported by independents or greens. I do not see a coalition.

Third, the big unknown is how SF performs - I think they will lose ground to FF. They will not be in coalition.

Fourth, we will probably have two elections in the next 2-3 years. If FG is still led by Varadkar, it won't have the staying power or discipline to resist collapsing the government. Since this is the most likely arrangements

In terms of leadership, Varadkar will stay on whether they win or lose, but will be damaged. Martin is finished if FF is not the dominant party in government. Howlin is done, unless they go into coalition - there could even be a fresh heave before the election of FF and FG agree a date. Mary Lou will fight on for another election.

is_that_so

SF have lost another TD as O'Brien in Cork is not running again. I've had them losing 2-3 seats but now reckon it could be as many as 7.

Asitis2019

is_that_so wrote: »

SF have lost another TD as O'Brien in Cork is not running again. I've had them losing 2-3 seats but now reckon it could be as many as 7.

Agreed, the tide has gone out on SF.

Loafing Oaf

Asitis2019 wrote: »

My observations:-

First, I don't see that there is going to be a significant difference in the composition of the Dail after the next election. FF will emerge as the largest party, with close to 60 seats. Actually, I think FG will gain slightly, but will remain with 50 or slightly less. Labour will gain, but not enough to return to coalition (10-12 seats). Greens will gain (5-7 seats), but hardly enough to govern. I don't think the SDs or Aontu will be any more significant than they were before the election, but maybe a little bit.

Second, I think we are looking at another confidence and supply, this time in reverse with FF supported by independents or greens. I do not see a coalition.

If those parties have anything like those seat totals they will 100% be forming a coalition. No problem making up the numbers with SDs/Independent Alliance/whoever. I think it's unlikely FF or Labour will be on those numbers though.

Turbohymac

Won't matter to most citizens..same crap just a different day

Loafing Oaf

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Yet, FG's biggest achievement was to take the goodwill and mandate they were given to actually really CHANGE the country, and flush it down the toilet, thereby putting FF in the driving seat once again.

The voters didn't make it happen. The credit for FF's resurgence is entirely FG's.

Wow I didn't realise FG had the power to dictate to voters that they were not permitted to vote for any other party apart from FF.

Asitis2019

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

If those parties have anything like those seat totals they will 100% be forming a coalition. No problem making up the numbers with SDs/Independent Alliance/whoever. I think it's unlikely FF or Labour will be on those numbers though.

Those are best case scenarios - and even then FF + Labour + Green doesn't add up to a majority (80 seats). That is why I would predict a confidence and supply. I'm assuming that Labour would not risk being burned, especially under Howlin, of engaging in a confidence and supply coalition with an unstable govt.

James Brown

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Wow I didn't realise FG had the power to dictate to voters that they were not permitted to vote for any other party apart from FF.

They had the power to promote FF as a viable option and they did.

Dyr

is_that_so wrote: »

SF have lost another TD as O'Brien in Cork is not running again. I've had them losing 2-3 seats but now reckon it could be as many as 7.

Ferris is calling it a day in Kerry too and Toireasa isn't running in his stead. We're seeing the Troubles old guard taking their pensions and a lot of SF elected reps and members walking away disillusioned with the Carpet bagggers that run the show. Democratic Left Mark Deux

Loafing Oaf

Asitis2019 wrote: »

Those are best case scenarios - and even then FF + Labour + Green doesn't add up to a majority (80 seats).

Like I said with the SDs and various soft-left independents like Catherine Connolly and Thomas Pringle knocking about, it seems likely that the core of FF+Lab+Green will be able to put a government together if they are in or around your 'best-case scenario'...

rossie1977

theguzman wrote: »

Fianna Fail will win power 100% guaranteed, Rural Ireland will backlash at Leo Varadkar, the D4 elite gay half Indian is a harder sell to Rural Ireland than Trump is to California or Hillary Clinton to Alabama.

Voters in Ireland vote for their local candidates. Ming Flanagan a long haired, weed smoking, non suit wearing guy has garnered probably more votes than any other politician in rural Ireland over last decade.

franglan

Well The Journal seem to think an election will be called any day now as Leo and Michael are meeting on Thursday/Friday.

Idbatterim

HOw bad do you have to be , to lose power during an economic boom ! Fcucking incredible. Varadkar is the biggest fraud of a Taoiseach, we have ever had !

They thought he was their savior! With coveney at the helm even with the same results , that would probably be enough to ensure more votes than ff

LoughNeagh2017

He is a free stater as far as I know, maybe I should try my best not to go to Dublin from then on. However you are beat both ways, if you go to England for a trip you are in enemy country and if you go to Dublin you are in enemy country. You can't win really, maybe I shouldn't leave my townland.

topmanamillion

is_that_so wrote: »

Johnson has got nothing done. They haven't left and the end of Brexit is still a long way off and if the sole measure of Trump's performance on the US economy is the standard by what politicians should be defined I'd really question your moral compass.

Brexit is done. He led the Torys to a thumping victory that ensures a minimum 5 years and probably more as Labour are buried for a long time to come in their traditional stronghold of North East England.

Trump became president by pushing an agenda of "drain the swamp" and the Democrats are thick enough to play into his hands and impeach him when they can never see it through. In the middle of that he bumps off a senior Iranian general in a show of strength. Exactly the kind of thing a large portion of gun tooting Americans want from their president.

Despite FF being culpable for a catastrophic economic collapse, FG weren't capable of burying FF in the same way the Torys buried Labour in England. The best they could manage was a minority government and a proxy coalition with FF.

Almost a year out from the US elections, we're unquestionably looking at 5 years of Trump/Johnson/Martin.

And its the fault of the utterly incompetent opposition.

Dyr

franglan wrote: »

Well The Journal seem to think an election will be called any day now as Leo and Michael are meeting on Thursday/Friday.

Michéal has been claiming for months that he wanted a nice sensible date in spring

I wonder if he decided that Leos faux pas with commemorating the Tans and the hospital beds is enough to go early.

Asitis2019

Bambi wrote: »

Michéal has been claiming for months that he wanted a nice sensible date in spring

I wonder if he decided that Leos faux pas with commemorating the Tans and the hospital beds is enough to go early.

I listened to Louise O'Reilly (SF) on Ivan Yates this evening. It sounds to me as if they will *not* contemplate a no confidence motion in the short-term. I think SF are now running scared as are all political parties.

It would not surprise me, at this stage, if the election was put off until June.

Yet, the longer FF continues to support this inept and unimaginative administration, the worse they will fare. They have supported EM in two confidence motions, and have lost my vote

Game off, for now.

Eric Cartman

Bambi wrote: »

Michéal has been claiming for months that he wanted a nice sensible date in spring

I wonder if he decided that Leos faux pas with commemorating the Tans and the hospital beds is enough to go early.

Micheal has been fierce quiet on the RIC commemoration, he can't go but he also can't boycott it , will be tough but him attendind would completely wipe out confidence in him within the party.

Eric Cartman

Eric Cartman wrote: »

Micheal has been fierce quiet on the RIC commemoration, he can't go but he also can't boycott it , will be tough but him attendind would completely wipe out confidence in him within the party.

Why can’t he boycott it?

nthclare

Looks like we'll all have some extra money in our pockets if FF get in, no better way to start out the first two years in office.

Save it wisely folks

Eric Cartman

ReginaldSmythV wrote: »

Why can’t he boycott it?

For fear of being labeled as stirring up old sectarian trouble or being slammed by FG , the irish times would hate it if he came out publicly, he'll just have to quietly not attend.

franglan

Does the Dáil not have to be dissolved at some point in late March due to the length of the sitting?

James Brown

topmanamillion wrote: »

Brexit is done. He led the Torys to a thumping victory that ensures a minimum 5 years and probably more as Labour are buried for a long time to come in their traditional stronghold of North East England.

Trump became president by pushing an agenda of "drain the swamp" and the Democrats are thick enough to play into his hands and impeach him when they can never see it through. In the middle of that he bumps off a senior Iranian general in a show of strength. Exactly the kind of thing a large portion of gun tooting Americans want from their president.

Despite FF being culpable for a catastrophic economic collapse, FG weren't capable of burying FF in the same way the Torys buried Labour in England. The best they could manage was a minority government and a proxy coalition with FF.

Almost a year out from the US elections, we're unquestionably looking at 5 years of Trump/Johnson/Martin.

And its the fault of the utterly incompetent opposition.

But FF are in opposition, (I'm laughing a little) so if they do get in you're wrong?
Boris and Trump are going to make a small few very wealthy. Our lads are more spit on the hand handshake deal behind a cow shed. Not in the same league.

FrancieBrady

ReginaldSmythV wrote: »

Why can’t he boycott it?

Listening to Jim Daly on Claire Byrne Fianna Fail are going to wimp out on it as a party. Daly himself is not going.

Jonny one

franglan wrote: »

Does the Dáil not have to be dissolved at some point in late March due to the length of the sitting?

March 2021! The next general election doesn't legally have to be held until April 2021.

Dyr

Asitis2019 wrote: »

I listened to Louise O'Reilly (SF) on Ivan Yates this evening. It sounds to me as if they will *not* contemplate a no confidence motion in the short-term. I think SF are now running scared as are all political parties.

It would not surprise me, at this stage, if the election was put off until June.

Yet, the longer FF continues to support this inept and unimaginative administration, the worse they will fare. They have supported EM in two confidence motions, and have lost my vote

Game off, for now.

O'Reilly is a classic example of the modern SF carpet bagger, a SIPTU official parachuted into a constituency before the ink had even dried on her party membership card

They're running scared for reason

rossie1977

Jonny one wrote: »

March 2021! The next general election doesn't legally have to be held until April 2021.

Yeah which suggests FG are confident of winning by agreeing to an election a year early

McMurphy

Is Martin keeping deliberately scthum about the black and tan commemoration planned by Charlie and Leo or what?

What's his official stance on it?

James Brown

McMurphy wrote: »

Is Martin keeping deliberately scthum about the black and tan commemoration planned by Charlie and Leo or what?

What's his official stance on it?

Was just saying elsewhere, they can't play both sides on this one. Be nice to see one of the big two have a stance. The fall out will be interesting.