Champions Cup 2019/20 Round 5

jr86

eagle eye wrote: »

Leinster suddenly have a very poor defense over the last couple of games.

Something wrong in Northampton, they have been very poor in a lot of games. Too much talent there for this to be happening.

You think? They honestly look bang average on paper to me tbh

Eod100

Current standings:

Q= Qualified as first. q = qualified at 2nd at least. 22 = match points. (56) = points difference. 2nd = guaranteed 2nd (but not runner-up spot). 4 games = 4 games played.
1) Leinster 24 Q
2) Racing 22 (72) Q
3) Exeter 22 (62) Q
2) Toulouse 22 (56) Q
4) Clermont 20 q)
6) Ulster 17 (2nd)
7) Saracens 14 (30)
8) Gloucester 14 (21) (2nd)

9)Northampton 14 (2nd)
10) Glasgow 12

Exclamation Marc

No guaranteed home quarters yet which is mad.

Eod100

Exclamation Marc wrote: »

No guaranteed home quarters yet which is mad.

Yeah theres actually lots to play for in last round. Think 7 or 8 games impact finishing places/qualification

Squidgy Black

God damn Ulstermen making it tricky for all of us, those pesky scoundrels.

Eod100

Eod100 wrote: »

Yeah theres actually lots to play for in last round. Think 7 or 8 games impact finishing places/qualification

Actually looks like every match bar Connachts has in theory something to play for so 9.

Eod100

Possible finishing ranks:


1) Leinster 29 Q
2) Toulouse 27 Q
3) Exeter 27 Q
4) Clermont 25 Q (q as it stands)
5) Racing 23 Q
6) Ulster 21
7) Saracens 18 (36) (30 as it stands)
8)Northampton 18

9) Glasgow 17
10) Gloucester 14


So many variables thought but this seems most at stake going into the last round for a while

Northampton in Lansdowne again would be a bit dull but ah well.

Eod100

Adele Famous Stoplight wrote: »

Northampton in Lansdowne again would be a bit dull but ah well.

At least it's a handy one. Then again if you finish first the qf tends to be. And good chance of a home semi too

errlloyd

Eod100 wrote: »

At least it's a handy one. Then again if you finish first the qf tends to be. And good chance of a home semi too

It wasn't that kind a few years ago when we got Sarries in the quarter.

Former Former

If Lyon decide to take an interest, I don't think Northampton will win there. They're a deeply ordinary team.

Lyon have Toulon at home the following week so may not bother their arses.

Burkie1203

Former Former wrote: »

If Lyon decide to take an interest, I don't think Northampton will win there. They're a deeply ordinary team.

Lyon have Toulon at home the following week so may not bother their arses.

That's Munsters other big problem. Sale and Lyon might not be all that bothered. Lyon lost a 2nd row after 2 min yesterday too.

Sale are away to Exeter that weekend too.

crisco10

Former Former wrote: »

If Lyon decide to take an interest, I don't think Northampton will win there. They're a deeply ordinary team.

Lyon have Toulon at home the following week so may not bother their arses.

it's strange that NH are even in with a shot, given they got well beaten in the head to heads before Christmas. it's a weird tournament this year!

Burkie1203

crisco10 wrote: »

it's strange that NH are even in with a shot, given they got well beaten in the head to heads before Christmas. it's a weird tournament this year!

The two draws have opened the door slightly to this. And also Leinster, Toulouse, Exeter should all go unbeaten means the last few places are up for grabs.

Eod100

errlloyd wrote: »

It wasn't that kind a few years ago when we got Sarries in the quarter.

Northampton are no Saracens tbf

Eod100

Burkie1203 wrote: »

That's Munsters other big problem. Sale and Lyon might not be all that bothered. Lyon lost a 2nd row after 2 min yesterday too.

Sale are away to Exeter that weekend too.

Glasgow will beat Sale just a question of getting a tbp which they probably will. Toulouse should beat Gloucester. Northampton result may not need to come into it. Think main issue is Racing beating Saracens because that's the one that makes the other results matter

I can't help but feel that Sarries have gone out of their way not to be in qualification contention and yet they look like they'll make it.

Eod100

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I can't help but feel that Sarries have gone out of their way not to be in qualification contention and yet they look like they'll make it.

Yeah kinda feels that way but not beating Racing would knock them out. Dont think any coach is going to tell their team not to try win even in these circumstances and 2nd team players will be trying to show form to break into first team. At home you'd think they would want to win top of course.

Burkie1203

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I can't help but feel that Sarries have gone out of their way not to be in qualification contention and yet they look like they'll make it.

A lot of their 2nd choice players using It as a shop window for next season given the expected squad trimming

Burkie1203

Eod100 wrote: »

Glasgow will beat Sale just a question of getting a tbp which they probably will. Toulouse should beat Gloucester. Northampton result may not need to come into it. Think main issue is Racing beating Saracens because that's the one that makes the other results matter

The sarries game is at same time as Munsters. The Glasgow and Saints games are on Saturday if Both if them win with necessary match points, Munster are gone. At least when they play they want to have a chance of a QF.

AdamD

Deleted User wrote: »

I can't help but feel that Sarries have gone out of their way not to be in qualification contention and yet they look like they'll make it.

I don't think this is true at all. It looks like they've targetted just enough games to make it into the knock outs. All quite calculated I would say.

Buer

AdamD wrote: »

I don't think this is true at all. It looks like they've targetted just enough games to make it into the knock outs. All quite calculated I would say.

Agreed. I think they've played it perfectly. The core of their side has returned from the RWC and been managed very well with minimal game time. Owen Farrell has played 5 times since the RWC final.

They're now in a position where a simple win will guarantee them qualification for the knock outs. They've won 4/5 games in the GP only losing away to Exeter which is the hardest fixture they'll face in their GP season (and got a BP).

They now win next week, focus entirely on the GP for 2.5 months and I expect them to be in a very strong position come April where they can send their full strength side to Exeter or Toulouse, I reckon. At that point, I believe they'll be in the top 10 of the GP.

Podge_irl

I would have been a lot happier had Ospreys not contrived to lose to a second-string 14 man Sarries. I think they'll be dangerous come the knock-outs if they can keep things motoring in the Premiership over the 6N period.

Stupid Welsh.

Snickers Man

Buer wrote: »

I think they've played it perfectly. The core of their side has returned from the RWC and been managed very well with minimal game time. Owen Farrell has played 5 times since the RWC final.

They're now in a position where a simple win will guarantee them qualification for the knock outs. They've won 4/5 games in the GP only losing away to Exeter which is the hardest fixture they'll face in their GP season (and got a BP).

They now win next week, focus entirely on the GP for 2.5 months and I expect them to be in a very strong position come April where they can send their full strength side to Exeter or Toulouse, I reckon. At that point, I believe they'll be in the top 10 of the GP.

Maybe. But I have a sneaking suspicion that they (Saracens) might come unstuck against Racing next week. They need a win but Racing know that if THEY don't win, they will have an away fixture in the q finals, almost certainly against another French team, Toulouse or Auvergne. So, if they want it and I think they do, they might target next week for a win, which they are capable of doing against a weakened Saracens team.

All of which might let Munster in, assuming they can get a bonus point win against the Ospreys in Thomond. Which is well within their capability.

So my (revised) pick for the Q final line up is now.

Leinster v Munster
Exeter v Northampton
Racing v Ulster
Toulouse v Clermont Auvergne.

Couple of interesting national derbies there!!!

AdamD

AdamD wrote: »

I don't think this is true at all. It looks like they've targetted just enough games to make it into the knock outs. All quite calculated I would say.

I've no doubt that they've gone out to win every game, but the team selections suggest to me that they were prepared not to qualify and are prioritising the premiership.

I wouldn't be surprised to see them under strength this weekend again. I also wouldn't be surprised if they still won which says a lot about the group frankly.

They've done the minimum and gotten away with it, if they do qualify they'll be in the hunt for the final to be honest. I hope they meet Leinster in the quarters, would be our best chance of putting them away.

Eod100

Burkie1203 wrote: »

The sarries game is at same time as Munsters. The Glasgow and Saints games are on Saturday if Both if them win with necessary match points, Munster are gone. At least when they play they want to have a chance of a QF.

Yup, only 1 result we can control. If we're still in it mathematically great but dont think I see all the results happening. And even if they did would probably be a qf against Leinster

jr86

Snickers Man wrote: »

Maybe. But I have a sneaking suspicion that they (Saracens) might come unstuck against Racing next week. They need a win but Racing know that if THEY don't win, they will have an away fixture in the q finals, almost certainly against another French team, Toulouse or Auvergne. So, if they want it and I think they do, they might target next week for a win, which they are capable of doing against a weakened Saracens team.

All of which might let Munster in, assuming they can get a bonus point win against the Ospreys in Thomond. Which is well within their capability.

So my (revised) pick for the Q final line up is now.

Leinster v Munster
Exeter v Northampton
Racing v Ulster
Toulouse v Clermont Auvergne.

Couple of interesting national derbies there!!!

Sarries will hardly be all that weakened will they?

Would have thought most/all of Vunipola (x2), farrell, Itoje, Daly and george would be featuring in some capacity anyway

Would imagine they'll dispose of Racing comfortably enough

jr86

Deleted User wrote: »

I've no doubt that they've gone out to win every game, but the team selections suggest to me that they were prepared not to qualify and are prioritising the premiership.

They were always going to beat ospreys x2 with a scratch side anyway but I'd imagine the idea was to play (close-to) a full strength side in the two big home games, albeit they probably took a bit of a gamble in hoping Munster didn't pull off an upset v Racing.

its a bit of a farce that they will qualify with such an approach but the overall quality of club rugby is such that they can get away with it - would have qualified in any other group also

Burkie1203

jr86 wrote: »

Sarries will hardly be all that weakened will they?

Would have thought most/all of Vunipola (x2), farrell, Itoje, Daly and george would be featuring in some capacity anyway

Would imagine they'll dispose of Racing comfortably enough

They have clearly defined their approach to be full strength at home, half/half away. They will be going for it.

They have Quins away the following Sunday

Riskymove

The IT says Munster

need Racing 92 to beat Saracens at the weekend in order to finish as runners-up. A bonus-point win over the Ospreys at Thomond Park would move them up to 16 points overall – enough for them to qualify providing Glasgow, Northampton and Gloucester all fail to win.

I think that may be inaccurate

They need sarries to lose alright but if Sarries do lose and Munster get a BP win then they would have 16pts

I think they can afford for one of Glasgow, Northampton and Gloucester to win and then Munster would qualify along with whichever of those 3 won

Is this correct?

Eod100

Riskymove wrote: »

The IT says Munster



I think that may be inaccurate

They need sarries to lose alright but if Sarries do lose and Munster get a BP win then they would have 16pts

I think they can afford for one of Glasgow, Northampton and Gloucester to win and then Munster would qualify along with whichever of those 3 won

Is this correct?

Yes. Glasgow can win without a tbp once Munster have better PD. Need Northampton and/or Gloucester to lose. and both not get a lbp and a tbp.

Eod100

Easier to explain with rankings.

1) Leinster 24 (105) Q
2) Racing 22 (71) Q
3) Exeter 22 (62) Q
4) Toulouse 22 (56) Q
5) Clermont 20 (86) q
6) Ulster 17 (15) (2nd)
7) Saracens 14 (30)
8) Gloucester 14 (21) (2nd)

9)Northampton 14 (2nd)
10) Glasgow 12 (-12)
11) Munster 11 (0)
12) La Rochelle 10 (-20)

Munster need to beat Ospreys at home with a tbp to get to 16.

Racing need to beat Saracens away and deny them a lbp and tbp. (1 point is fine)

Need 2 of 3 following results:

Glasgow, lose, draw or win without a tbp vs Sale away (and Munster to have better PD).

Gloucester to lose to Tolouse away with a tbp and a lbp. (1 is fine)

Northampton to lose to Lyon away without a tbp and a lbp. (1 is fine)