Flight 752 brought down by Iran - mod warning in |OP

notobtuse

So it seems to me the progression has been that Iran didn’t shoot down the airline with a missile because they said so. Then, as mounting pressure from almost insurmountable evidence points to Iran shooting down the airline (in error, of course) it is now becoming acceptable that the plane was shot down by Iran because it was all Donald Trump’s fault.

TDS at its best.

Cheerful Spring2

markodaly wrote: »

Most reports coming out tonight are clearly stating that it was a missle that hit and brought down this airplane.

Justrin Trudeau (who hates Trump with a passion) gave a press conference to this fact.

https://apnews.com/1cf3a9656804672b4ddd72190dcfee22



To parrot the Iranian version in this instance is ridiculous.

The public has not received the new intelligence that talked about online. There two online videos that exhibit different events

One video we see a missile/ projectile shooting up from the ground, big flash results and the flash vanishes away. On this video there no visual evidence of an airplane flying!

The second video we do see the plane light in the background, at night, it's moving, and suddenly there is a ball of fire. Then the airplane falls speedily to the ground while on fire.

The Second video appears to match more closely to Iranian eyewitnesses accounts.

Unnamed US intelligence officials are releasing input to the media Iran on this night mistakenly) fired anti-air Russian made TOR rockets/ projectiles at the airplane?

"If authentic, what's the holdup? Did you obtain undeniable evidence of Iran shooting down an airliner or not?

 I not going to claim Iran shot down a commercial airliner till everyone sees the intelligence and agrees it legit. 

Gatling

notobtuse wrote: »

So it seems to me the progression has been that Iran didn’t shoot down the airline with a missile because they said so.

That's it exactly.


Suppose when your forced to keep up the narrative in the hoping for an absolute miracle because it denial after denial Iran didn't shoot down flight 752 because ehhh ehhh ehhh something about Vietnam ,did anyone see EastEnders last night.

But when an international investigation proves Iran shotdown flight 752 we will get it wasn't them,it's a conspiracy against the peaceful mad mullahs ,
America did it .

McGiver

cosybeach wrote:

case closed nothing to see here this isis like regime has covered up many of its own civilian deaths only problem the world gets see this one

Same as the Saudis. Just that they don't hide it. So?

ISIS are Sunni offshoot.
Iran are Shia.

woohoo!!!

I think wait until the Canadian and Ukranian investigators have reached a conclusion. Whether a plane/pilot fault or an accidental Iranian missile, it's little to do with the recent spat.

If it proves a missile, then the Iranian authorities are open to charges of a cover up.

McGiver

Manic Moran wrote:

then use Occam's Razor and go with the simplest explanation. Use Hanlon's Razor to corroborate.

Exactly this.

Manic Moran wrote:

The explanation which fits both is "Iranian SAM operator ballsed up"

Yes. Conspiracy theories are the least likely to be the truth. Just too complicated.
**** ups happen all the time, everywhere.

Cheerful Spring2

woohoo!!! wrote: »

I think wait until the Canadian and Ukranian investigators have reached a conclusion. Whether a plane/pilot fault or an accidental Iranian missile, it's little to do with the recent spat.

If it proves a missile, then the Iranian authorities are open to charges of a cover up.

Good post. Correct- if it's found out to be a missile and there no ambiguity, it obvious then Iran covered that up.
Iran knows if a unit in Tehran launched a missile or not on this day. 

Right now it just speculation.

Gatling

Cheerful Spring2 wrote: »

Iran knows if a unit in Tehran launched a missile or not on this day. 

And yet all were getting mass denials from Iran who will never admit it , along with all parties anti America

Boggles

The Iranian Aviation authority have asked the French BEA to join the investigation, which they have accepted.

They insist on working with the manufacturer, so Boeing and NTSB are on their way to Tehran.

Teams from Canada and the Ukraine all ready there apparently.

https://www.france24.com/en/20200110-iran-plane-crash-ukraine-boeing-canada-us-usa-washington-tehran-trudeau-soleimani-france-le-drian

Gatling

Boggles wrote: »

The Iranian Aviation authority have asked the French BEA to join the investigation, which they have accepted.

They insist on working with the manufacturer, so Boeing and NTSB are on their way to Tehran.

Teams from Canada and the Ukraine all ready there apparently.

https://www.france24.com/en/20200110-iran-plane-crash-ukraine-boeing-canada-us-usa-washington-tehran-trudeau-soleimani-france-le-drian

But if the reports of Iranian forces using bulldozers on the wreckage and impact site they might not have a lot to investigate,
Now what happeneds when team go to report a missile strike on flight 753 they get locked up for spying on the Iranian government ,or die in accident and the report never gets to see the light of day.

Or this is nothing more than a publicity stunt to gain more time to spin more lies.

Boggles

Gatling wrote: »

But if the reports of Iranian forces using bulldozers on the wreckage and impact site they might not have a lot to investigate,

Not really the plane crashed intact and exploded. Not much can be garnered really.

Parts of the plane (which have been kept) and unfortunately body parts would be key pieces of evidence. Shrapnel, signs of explosion, etc.

Plus they have the black boxes.

Plenty of potential evidence, all the players will be involved, a cover up would be impossible, not that the Iranians wouldn't try to cover it up, but we will hear about it if the BEA suspect it.

joseywhales

Gatling wrote: »

But if the reports of Iranian forces using bulldozers on the wreckage and impact site they might not have a lot to investigate,
Now what happeneds when team go to report a missile strike on flight 753 they get locked up for spying on the Iranian government ,or die in accident and the report never gets to see the light of day.

Or this is nothing more than a publicity stunt to gain more time to spin more lies.

If someone dies, it would further escalate the situation toward war, I doubt they would risk that. I imagine any self respecting inspetor will demand to at least look at the removed fuselage.

Realistically they should just admit that they accidentally shot down a liner because they are under intense pressure with untested personnel and systems.

It's a perfect opportunity to de-escalate.

Cheerful Spring2

Gatling wrote: »

And yet all were getting mass denials from Iran who will never admit it , along with all parties anti America

Reports look to be false the black box is damaged, Last report i read online the black box intact? They can retrieve the CVR, you hear pilots speaking in the cockpit and pilots speaking to passengers. I believe it also records the switches turned on and off and plane's engine noise and other things? We may get a clue there if it was a fault on the airplane before it crashed. According to Iran, Ukrainian people now have access to it. The flight data recorder will display if the plane was suffering drops in altitude before the fireball and where was the airplane exactly was when it received the impact. 

Boggles

Cheerful Spring2 wrote: »

Reports look to be false the black box is damaged, Last report i read online the black box intact? They can retrieve the CVR, you hear pilots speaking in the cockpit and pilots speaking to passengers. I believe it also records the switches turned on and off and plane's engine noise and other things? We may get a clue there if it was a fault on the airplane before it crashed. According to Iran, Ukrainian people now have access to it. The flight data recorder will display if the plane was suffering drops in altitude before the fireball and where was the airplane exactly was when it received the impact. 

There may well have been a fault with the plane which contributed to it being shot down.

Namely something happened it's 'ID beacon' and comms in general on the flight, it has happened this aircraft before.

That is total speculation on my behalf though just to be clear.

But in a lot of cases of air crashes it is a series of unfortunate events that contribute to the ultimately downing of an airliner.

Gatling

Boggles wrote: »

Not really the plane crashed intact and exploded. Not much can be garnered really.

Ehhh .

Plenty can be garnered all the fuselage ,wings ,tail are put together and rebuilt in a hanger to show where the initial strike occurred ,all primary and secondary damage along with any possible shrapnel Found,
Running bulldozers through the wreckage to completely destroy any evidence and leave little for Investigators to examine ,

Boggles

Gatling wrote: »

Ehhh .

Plenty can be garnered all the fuselage ,wings ,tail are put together and rebuilt in a hanger to show where the initial strike occurred ,all primary and secondary damage along with any possible shrapnel Found,
Running bulldozers through the wreckage to completely destroy any evidence and leave little for Investigators to examine ,

They used dozers to collect the debris not destroy it.








How else do you think they move large pieces of a plane?

notobtuse

Anyone want to bet this part of the debris goes missing?

Gatling

Boggles wrote: »

They used dozers to collect the debris not destroy it.

Staged photographs from the Iranians ,

Why would they be interfering with the crash site before the international investigation team got there

Iran is lying about it's activities for the last few days (why would anyone believe anything they are currently saying)

Russia tried the same thing when they shotdown flight MH-17 , multiple delays followed multiple attempts at blocking and hampering the investigation ,

Won't expect anything but the same here

Cheerful Spring2

notobtuse wrote: »

Anyone want to bet this part of the debris goes missing?

It has the features of a Tor missile, fits the profile. These missiles are known to have been used in Syria civil war, so pictures likely this are not uncommon. Was it found in Iran near the plane crash?

tuxy

Cheerful Spring2 wrote: »

It has the features of a Tor missile, fits the profile. These missiles are known to have been used in Syria civil war, so pictures likely this are not uncommon. Was it found in Iran near the plane crash?

No it was found on twitter.

Boggles

Gatling wrote: »

Staged photographs from the Iranians ,

What do you mean?

Gatling wrote: »

Why would they be interfering with the crash site before the international investigation team got there

There is no such thing as an "international investigation team" in reality.

Protocol dictates the Iranian Aviation Authority take the lead, there was apparently a Ukrainian investigation team on the ground, there has been no objections thus far from the Ukrainians.

LuckyLloyd

So it seems they have handed over the black boxes to Ukrainian investigators.

And obviously all the multiple parties we would expect to get involved (International experts, manufacturer, etc) have been invited into Iran to get involved.

Bear in mind that Iran organising the investigation is normal for aviation disasters - the country within which the disaster occurs is responsible for leading / organising matters.

In due course we will find out what happened. We will also find out if the Iranians have obfuscated the issue by hiding / withholding / destroying evidence or denying evidence, etc. It looks like an accidental missile and that will be confirmed in time.

Cheerful Spring2

Boggles wrote: »

They used dozers to collect the debris not destroy it.








How else do you think they move large pieces of a plane?

charlie14

Gatling wrote: »

But if the reports of Iranian forces using bulldozers on the wreckage and impact site they might not have a lot to investigate,
Now what happeneds when team go to report a missile strike on flight 753 they get locked up for spying on the Iranian government ,or die in accident and the report never gets to see the light of day.

Or this is nothing more than a publicity stunt to gain more time to spin more lies.

Were you not one of the people making the ludicrous call for the flight recorders to be sent straight away to Boeing ?


Now the Iranian Aviation Authority have invited not just Boeing,(manufacturer), but also Canada (passengers), Ukraine (owners of the plane), and France (one of three countries recognise worldwide for their expertise with both CVR`s and DFR`s).
Do you somehow believe if the Iranians have buried the flight recorders they have already admitted recovering none of these parties will notice they are missing.
Ludicrous.



Iranian is following to the letter the provisions of the International Civil Aviation Organisation procedure for investigations of aircraft incidents and accidents.
If you do not believe me you can check it yourself.
It is covered in ICAO. Annex 13.

Gatling

Boggles wrote: »

There is no such thing as an "international investigation team" in reality.

Most if not all air crash investigation teams are international due to the the different interested parties involved ,

What are staged photographs - propaganda Iran's leadership posts a few select images to allow the media to use to further their agenda , Iran's military and leadership have spent the last few days telling lie after lie which is apparently an apps fault (Microsoft translator) !!!

notobtuse

Cheerful Spring2 wrote: »

It has the features of a Tor missile, fits the profile. These missiles are known to have been used in Syria civil war, so pictures likely this are not uncommon. Was it found in Iran near the plane crash?

Yes

https://nypost.com/2020/01/10/photos-reportedly-show-part-of-missile-that-downed-ukrainian-plane-over-iran/

Gatling

charlie14 wrote: »

Were you not one of the people making the ludicrous call for the flight recorders to be sent straight away to Boeing ?

No I said the Iranians publicly stated that they would not be sending the FDRs to Boeing,

I did say flight 752 was shotdown days ago

Boggles

Gatling wrote: »

Most if not all air crash investigation teams are international due to the the different interested parties involved ,

As is this one. All the major players are involved.

But protocol dictates Iran take the lead, they involved the Ukraine straight away. They have not objected to any process.

Gatling wrote: »

What are staged photographs - propaganda Iran's leadership posts a few select images to allow the media to use to further their agenda

The "media" are using the images and screaming cover up.

Cheerful Spring2

notobtuse wrote: »

Yes

https://nypost.com/2020/01/10/photos-reportedly-show-part-of-missile-that-downed-ukrainian-plane-over-iran/

This is what they said.
The unverified photo was claimed to show a remnant of a Russian-built Tor-M1 surface-to-air missile of the kind used by Iranian forces, according to the Guardian.

So it not verified, the paper just used it anyway?

Boggles

notobtuse wrote: »

Yes

https://nypost.com/2020/01/10/photos-reportedly-show-part-of-missile-that-downed-ukrainian-plane-over-iran/

Images have surfaced online purporting to show the “seeker head” from an Iranian missile that brought down a Ukrainian airliner — the latest piece of a puzzle in the probe of the disaster that killed 176 people.

Video shows moment Ukraine plane erupts into flames after crashing in Iran
The unverified photo was claimed to show a remnant of a Russian-built Tor-M1 surface-to-air missile of the kind used by Iranian forces, according to the Guardian.

His point remains.