What will happen to sinn fein after this election.

mariaalice

Mary Lou on RTE at the moment doing much better than Micheál Martin, however, they may fall off a cliff after this election?

The issue is they have a few very competent people who are heled back by being in SF and the rest of SF

Locally they attract a lot of chip on their shoulders and crank type supporters which does affect their vote and its possible the same in each constituency?.

N.I is different.

bladespin

Very much agree, as a party they often say the right things for me but then the old style SF kicks in, than along with history puts me off completely.

is_that_so

Overall votes for the hard left will probably be down as their angry message is not going to work anymore. That could put them out of the running for some seats. Retirements too will hit them. Even if they hold up around where their support level was in 2016, it is doubtful IMO and they will naturally lose seats anyway through lack of transfers. I think they'll lose 3 seat straight off - Louth, Kerry and Meath East. You could probably add Cork NC to that list. If their vote doesn't go south of 13%-14% I'd say 6-7 losses in seats will be good. If it does go under 13% then we could be talking about double figure losses. FF will probably gain from that, but so will others.

mariaalice

Labour could make a comeback if SF declines? the middling left vote has to go somewhere.

NIMAN

As far as the current voting population is concerned, I think SF have reached their natural level at around 13-15% or whatever they have been averaging.

They simply cannot convince any others to vote for them for various reasons.

But I think their future will depend on how they can convince the younger voters that they are a party you could vote for, and I think a lot of this will be done by pointing out the mistakes of FF and FG.

_Brian

mariaalice wrote: »

Labour could make a comeback if SF declines? the middling left vote has to go somewhere.

Aontu will make gains at the expense of both SF and FF.

ELM327

NIMAN wrote: »

As far as the current voting population is concerned, I think SF have reached their natural level at around 13-15% or whatever they have been averaging.

They simply cannot convince any others to vote for them for various reasons.

But I think there future will depend on how they can convince the younger voters that they are a party you could vote for, and I think a lot of this will be done by pointing out the mistakes of FF and FG.

I think the name of SF is too poisonous , it will never exceed a small percentage (13-15 as you outline).


If they had some credible suggestions and a name change they may in time reach FF/FG levels but realistically they are too far left currently.

_Brian wrote: »

Aontu will make gains at the expense of both SF and FF.

Not bloody likely, thankfully.

Mad_maxx

Since Eoin o Broin took a forward role in strategy, they have begun pitching to the socially Liberal Pro EU voter, that's a pretty crowded space, the greens, Labour, soc dems

O Broin championing Margaret Cash went down like a led balloon as well

They've lost their identity a little

ELM327

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Since Eoin o Broin took a forward role in strategy, they have begun pitching to the socially Liberal Pro EU voter, that's a pretty crowded space, the greens, Labour, soc dems

O Broin championing Margaret Cash went down like a led balloon as well

They've lost their identity a little

Well they haven't worked!
A large component of that demographic (of which I am part of) would be quite affluent (A-C1) and would not vote for SF or any similar outlandish party with the risk of killing the economy. An economy let's not forget where ~500,000 jobs or ~40% of FTE (depending on source and definition), are derived from FDI based on our CT rate.
SF have proposed increasing that.

These voters would traditionally have voted FG, and now some are migrating to the greens.

ratracer

_Brian wrote: »

Aontu will make gains at the expense of both SF and FF.

Do they have many candidates? I’ve heard very little about them apart from Peadar O’T being their leader.

Fr_Dougal

SF have turned into a mouthpiece for the work shy. That and their links to terrorists and criminal gangs will hopefully mean they never get into power. Let them stay on the fringes where they belong.

bladespin

ratracer wrote: »

Do they have many candidates? I’ve heard very little about them apart from Peadar O’T being their leader.

Very early, very small but am sure they will appeal to a certain voter type, it will and has damaged SF.

decky1

Time to move on , maybe give them a chance and see if they live up to their promises, could they be any worse that previous elected , we can't just keep going around in circles with the same parties every few years and spent that time saying their no good , lets give them a chance.

mariaalice

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

SF have turned into a mouthpiece for the work shy. That and their links to terrorists and criminal gangs will hopefully mean they never get into power. Let them stay on the fringes where they belong.

Not shouting up for SF, but no they haven't they have taken on those who feel they are marginalised ( whether they are marginalised is another question ) AH has about 5 or 6 posters who are obsessed if not at this stage possessed by social welfare, social housing ect, despite the fantasies in their head, its a marginal issue for most of the electorate.

Idbatterim

housing and health worse than ever and SF still not making further ground. I am just saying, it doesnt take just an economic collapse to create anger or problems. Basically, they are going nowhere. We are likely stuck with FFG farce, for another hundred years!

Idbatterim

mariaalice wrote: »

Not shouting up for SF, but no they haven't they have taken on those who feel they are marginalised ( whether they are marginalised is another question ) AH has about 5 or 6 posters who are obsessed if not at this stage possessed by social welfare, social housing ect, despite the fantasties in there head, its at most a marginal issue for most of the electorate.

the marginal issue that you think it is, costs the state billions. Billions that could be far better spent!

For example Fg will lose power over rip off housing for workers and not looking after workers. Yet they look after people that will never vote for them and would spit on them in the street. So it goes to show you, that FG cant even be arsed doing the bare minimum and I am meant to believe they would address the health issues and public service etc! PLEASE!

ELM327

Idbatterim wrote: »

housing and health worse than ever and SF still not making further ground. I am just saying, it doesnt take just an economic collapse to create anger or problems. Basically, they are going nowhere. We are likely stuck with FFG farce, for another hundred years!

+1
If the bleeding heart SJW left wing socialist extremists cannot make large gains with a crisis in health and a perceived housing crisis, then they never will.

ELM327

Idbatterim wrote: »

the marginal issue that you think it is, costs the state billions. Billions that could be far better spent!

For example Fg will lose power over rip off housing for workers and not looking after workers. Yet they look after people that will never vote for them and would spit on them in the street. So it goes to show you, that FG cant even be arsed doing the bare minimum and I am meant to believe they would address the health issues and public service etc! PLEASE!

FF + FG have had a century in government, so it is unlikely that either will fix the problem.


SF will throw tax payer money at problems but it is unlikely to fix the issues, and is likely to bankrupt the country in the process.

marieholmfan

ELM327 wrote: »

I think the name of SF is too poisonous , it will never exceed a small percentage (13-15 as you outline).


If they had some credible suggestions and a name change they may in time reach FF/FG levels but realistically they are too far left currently.



Not bloody likely, thankfully.

I don't think that any political party should be allowed to call itself Sinn Fein.

NIMAN

ELM327 wrote: »

+1
If the bleeding heart SJW left wing socialist extremists cannot make large gains with a crisis in health and a perceived housing crisis, then they never will.

.... and they made no significant gains after the economic collapse of 2008-10 either.

If that doesn't help your share of votes, nothing will.

Wanderer78

They're fcuked, they ll even become less significant than their current state of not significant at all

L1011

If its not a massacre, they'll look to move Mary Lou on before the next locals and probably replace her with a Northern leader and have a specific Dail leader again; as they need to try shore themselves up in NI more critically than down here

If its a really bad day, they may need a new leader immediately. Mary Lou has lost her seat (Euro but still) before.

dulpit

I suspect the main issue for SF is that they still have to hang onto the Provo identity, you'd see the odd TD talking about commemorating some volunteers who died in the 70s/80s. If they move away from that fully then maybe more people would be likely to vote for them, but at the same time if they moved away from that tradition they would alienate their current voter-base, and the cohort in the North wouldn't be best pleased.

I think until the full lost of members who would have been active in the IRA back in the troubles are gone from the ranks (which could be another 30 years) they won't be able to make a bigger push, unless something major happens within the party.

Bass Reeves

I can actually see SF in government after the next election. There poisonous image to other parties has waned. They now know they have plateued with there present brand of anti everything. FF or FG will struggle to get beyondid 50,'s in seats SF on 17/18 would bring either party above 70 seats leaving about 15 more for a majority. Greens at 3-6 seats along with FF( Healy Rae's, et Al) FG (Lowry Naughton and present independent's) would leave either party looking at another 5-6 to form s government.

Other than that it s race between FF and FG to see who gets the highest number of seats with the other in support for next 4-5 years.

Every dog on the street know that health is unfixable with present vested interests with an election coming there was always going to be a bigger than ever trolly crisis.

Housing is an issue where structural reforms outside the box to solve the issue.

Wanderer78

Bass Reeves wrote:

I can actually see SF in government after the next election. There poisonous image to other parties has waned. They now know they have plateued with there present brand of anti everything. FF or FG will struggle to get beyondid 50,'s in seats SF on 17/18 would bring either party above 70 seats leaving about 15 more for a majority. Greens at 3-6 seats along with FF( Healy Rae's, et Al) FG (Lowry Naughton and present independent's) would leave either party looking at another 5-6 to form s government.

I think you d be fairly naive to think sf will be in government soon, it's really only a 1 horse race between fg and ff for the foreseeable future unfortunately, we currently don't have alternatives, and I suspect, we never will either

dulpit

The biggest issue with the other parties going into power with Sinn Féin is that they know it will hurt them in the next election. The transfers from the big parties to Sinn Féin is relatively small, and I would guess a lot of people (FG votes in particular) would not forgive their party for putting Sinn Féin ministers in...

is_that_so

_Brian wrote: »

Aontu will make gains at the expense of both SF and FF.

Aontu will do moderately well in one constituency only, but still lose.

bladespin

is_that_so wrote: »

Aontu will do moderately well in one constituency only, but still lose.

How many seats do you think they can loose?

is_that_so

bladespin wrote: »

How many seats do you think they can loose?

Aontu will get none as they are too small. Depending on the SF support level, up to 10. 3 for sure, as I said, and realistically could be 6-7 because they won't have that transfer base from the left this time. One of those three is the Toibin seat where the vote will split and do neither of them a favour.

IAMAMORON

They need to make the transition from targeting the local council estate issues to targeting the entire community. Unless they can attract the middle class vote they will never succeed. That is their newest obstacle. Their economic policies appear daunting, highly unworkable and possibly scary to wealthy Irish people. They are never going to achieve growth without appeasing these voters.

They can always and should always be targeting the civil service classes. That is what FF, FG and labour do so well. If Sinn Féin could dangle a big enough carrot on genuine deliverables like a better Health Service, especially one that could provide cheaper health insurance premiums, they get pricey. Offering genuine fiscal alternatives, Irish voters are not stupid either, they haven't gone away you know:P.

But the biggest mountain Sinn Fein have to climb in the republic is convincing FF, FG and Labour voters that they have some sort of a plan. Far left nonsense might appease a few council estates and some inner city types, but most of the country actually have jobs and are paying taxes and would like to see alternatives that are workable. SF just don't seem to have a bona fide offer here.

Apart from all that it never helps when their councilors end up in prison for waterboarding citizens over motorbikes deals which go wrong, ffs... please.

ghost of ireland past

In other countries the fastest growing parties are usually right wing and promote secure borders and low immigration. Those issues and stances have proved popular with voters.

All Irish political parties are too much like the Democrats in the US, offering all things to all people, and not much to natives.

Sinn Fein don't offer a compelling vision for Ireland but then none of the parties do.