What will happen to sinn fein after this election.

Gunmonkey

I have to ask; has SF run extra candidates this election since the last GE? I know here in Offaly they booted Nolan out after the Abortion referendum, but have not placed a 2nd candidate beside Brian Stanley. So are the potentially running less candidates than the last GE?

If they cant find a single person in 2 counties to slap a SF sticker on and push in front of a camera for a poster during a time of "crisis after crisis after crisis" then they aren't going to be going anywhere soon! But thats just my personal take from my election region.

L1011

Gunmonkey wrote: »

I have to ask; has SF run extra candidates this election since the last GE? I know here in Offaly they booted Nolan out after the Abortion referendum, but have not placed a 2nd candidate beside Brian Stanley. So are the potentially running less candidates than the last GE?

If they cant find a single person in 2 counties to slap a SF sticker on and push in front of a camera for a poster during a time of "crisis after crisis after crisis" then they aren't going to be going anywhere soon! But thats just my personal take from my election region.

They're running slightly fewer candidates (42 declared so far vs 50 last time). Their vote share has slumped - those shonky B&A polls aside - and running too many candidates can turn a getting the last seat situation in to getting no seats at all.

They are still running 2 in some constituencies - there are only 39 so to get to 42 they'd have to - such as Louth where they currently have two TDs and Donegal where they still have a good chance of 2.

Edgware

Too many of the local hard chaws whose only political policy is "Brits Out" jumped on the S F bandwagon. They have to compete with other loser left wing parties and as long as they
are there they are going nowhere. Ireland doesn't do extremes but will tolerate a few gob****es like Murphy and Boyd Barrett

road_high

Idbatterim wrote: »

housing and health worse than ever and SF still not making further ground. I am just saying, it doesnt take just an economic collapse to create anger or problems. Basically, they are going nowhere. We are likely stuck with FFG farce, for another hundred years!

Because voters don’t see credible solutions coming from SF or believe they’ll maintain a vibrant economy to support these. Quite the opposite in fact

Billcarson

Darren O'Rourke sinn fein will be my number 1,east meath.

mariaalice

They could do better than they appear, they have calmed down a bit with the rabble-rousing and can sound quite sensible, but the type of local support they have in a lot of areas dose put people off.

Billcarson

If I was a betting man I would go for 17% of the vote for sf in this election.

BarryD2

If you want to get the true flavour of SF, listen to their Ard Fheis speeches and draw your own conclusions as to where they are. And how that fits in with the 26 counties in 2020.

Personally, I think we'd be far better served if they concentrated for the next decade on improving community relations in Northern Ireland. Take part in government there, build relationships between all citizens up there, bring political stability to that part of the country. Then and only then will more middle ground southern voters start to take them more seriously. Wrapping yourself up in the green flag gets you so far, but it has a limited appeal.

FrancieBrady

BarryD2 wrote: »

If you want to get the true flavour of SF, listen to their Ard Fheis speeches and draw your own conclusions as to where they are. And how that fits in with the 26 counties in 2020.

Personally, I think we'd be far better served if they concentrated for the next decade on improving community relations in Northern Ireland. Take part in government there, build relationships between all citizens up there, bring political stability to that part of the country. Then and only then will more middle ground southern voters start to take them more seriously. Wrapping yourself up in the green flag gets you so far, but it has a limited appeal.

You want SF party members in Cork and Waterford to migrate north and work there?

This is just an extension of the exclusionary politics of FF and FG.
'They are good enough for Irish people in the north but not the south, we don't want they upsetting the cosy consensus politics we have imposed cultivated since partition'.

Brendan Bendar

road_high wrote: »

Because voters don’t see credible solutions coming from SF or believe they’ll maintain a vibrant economy to support these. Quite the opposite in fact

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You want SF party members in Cork and Waterford to migrate north and work there?

This is just an extension of the exclusionary politics of FF and FG.
'They are good enough for Irish people in the north but not the south, we don't want they upsetting the cosy consensus politics we have imposed cultivated since partition'.

That post from road tells it exactly as it is.

Whether we are right or wrong that’s the way a huge majority of voters see it.

FrancieBrady

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

That post from road tells it exactly as it is.

Whether we are right or wrong that’s the way a huge majority of voters see it.

There isn't a majority for any party atm.

FG/FF vote share trend is steadily downward.

That means the electorate want a cross section to govern them.

Two parties have come up with a sham merger/coalition to control power. And engage in exclusionary politics. Simple as.

is_that_so

Billcarson wrote: »

If I was a betting man I would go for 17% of the vote for sf in this election.

They got 14% in 2016 and under 10% in the recent locals, a fall of 5%. 13%-14% if they are very lucky, as low as 10% if they are not.

Edgware

FrancieBrady wrote: »

You want SF party members in Cork and Waterford to migrate north and work there?

This is just an extension of the exclusionary politics of FF and FG.
'They are good enough for Irish people in the north but not the south, we don't want they upsetting the cosy consensus politics we have imposed cultivated since partition'.

They dont try to impose the policies they push in the South up North. Slab and the boys arent really into this paying extra (or any) tax lark to subsidise the welfare scroungers

angeleyes

S.F.'s seat in Limerick with Maurice Quinlivan is looking shakey. He could actually lose to the Green Party candidate Brian Leddin.

Brendan Bendar

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There isn't a majority for any party atm.

FG/FF vote share trend is steadily downward.

That means the electorate want a cross section to govern them.

Two parties have come up with a sham merger/coalition to control power. And engage in exclusionary politics. Simple as.

Cannot agree Francie, the great majority of voters in the Rep. do not want SF near the levers of power.

There’s a bit of time to go yet

FrancieBrady

Edgware wrote: »

They dont try to impose the policies they push in the South up North. Slab and the boys arent really into this paying extra (or any) tax lark to subsidise the welfare scroungers

Nobody mentioned anything about policies. You are free to oppose or support them.

We are talking about the exclusion of a democratically mandated party south of the border because it upsets a cosy arrangement.

FrancieBrady

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Cannot agree Francie, the great majority of voters in the Rep. do not want SF near the levers of power.

There’s a bit of time to go yet

Do a majority want Shane Ross, John Halligan, Finian McGrath?

17% of the electorate are basically being excluded. Similar to what happened Nationalists in the north.

is_that_so

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Do a majority want Shane Ross, John Halligan, Finian McGrath?

17% of the electorate are basically being excluded. Similar to what happened Nationalists in the north.

This is not true at all. We have lots of choice and our STV means a voter can have a bit of all parties
The didn't want to be in government when negotiations were taking place and belatedly did only on their terms. That up to 60% of the electorate are suspicious of them is something they need to work on.

jimmycrackcorm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Nobody mentioned anything about policies. You are free to oppose or support them.

We are talking about the exclusion of a democratically mandated party south of the border because it upsets a cosy arrangement.

Nothing to do with a cosy arrangement. People here have consistently voted in the majority for centrist parties whether FG right of centre or FF left of. SF and their wild left views are not compatible with what the electorate wish for. That's the reason they can't get into coalition.

Surely it's behoven of SF to adapt to what the electorate wishes?

FrancieBrady

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Nothing to do with a cosy arrangement. People here have consistently voted in the majority for centrist parties whether FG right of centre or FF left of. SF and their wild left views are not compatible with what the electorate wish for. That's the reason they can't get into coalition.

Surely it's behoven of SF to adapt to what the electorate wishes?

SF can do as they wish...go into government or not.

What I am objecting to is the 'co-incidence' of the two traditional power swapping parties refusing to countenance negotiating with them while imploring them to go into government elsewhere.

It is an insult to those who give them a mandate here and to those in the north. Making statements, as they do, should be anathema to any genuine democrat. Regardless of what SF decide to do.

rdwight

FrancieBrady wrote: »

SF can do as they wish...go into government or not.

What I am objecting to is the 'co-incidence' of the two traditional power swapping parties refusing to countenance negotiating with them while imploring them to go into government elsewhere.

It is an insult to those who give them a mandate here and to those in the north. Making statements, as they do, should be anathema to any genuine democrat. Regardless of what SF decide to do.

Perhaps the best way to assess their fitness for government is to look at their record in power in NI over, say, the last three years.

facehugger99

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Cannot agree Francie, the great majority of voters in the Rep. do not want SF near the levers of power.

They can't be trusted with the keys to the stationary cupboard, much less the levers of power.

bladespin

facehugger99 wrote: »

They can't be trusted with the keys to the stationary cupboard, much less the levers of power.

Think their issues with printer cartridges have been addressed since though.

FrancieBrady

rdwight wrote: »

Perhaps the best way to assess their fitness for government is to look at their record in power in NI over, say, the last three years.

FG and FF certainly have no issue with their 'fitness' to govern in NI. That is whu they (FF and FG) are being accused of being hypocrites.

If you receive a mandate from the electorate, who have said they do not trust any one party with power, no democrat should be excluding you before you have tried to negotiate a place in government.

In essence that is wrong, no matter what party is being excluded.

ohnonotgmail

FrancieBrady wrote: »

FG and FF certainly have no issue with their 'fitness' to govern in NI. That is whu they (FF and FG) are being accused of being hypocrites.

If you receive a mandate from the electorate, who have said they do not trust any one party with power, no democrat should be excluding you before you have tried to negotiate a place in government.

In essence that is wrong, no matter what party is being excluded.

Given that people continue to vote for FF/FG despite their well known stance on working SF it seems that FF/FG have a mandate from the people to continue not working with SF. Surely you are not arguing with a mandate from the people? that would be very undemocratic of you.

Loafing Oaf

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If you receive a mandate from the electorate, who have said they do not trust any one party with power, no democrat should be excluding you before you have tried to negotiate a place in government.

In essence that is wrong, no matter what party is being excluded.

Is this how it works in other countries where coalitions are the norm? Are not 'far right' parties basically declared to be untouchable by the 'establishment' in some countries? I'm not saying that's what SF are but I don't think 'all coalition options must be left open' is as much of an iron law of democracies as you are suggesting...

facehugger99

A majority of voters, in all previous election, cast their votes for Parties that had specifically ruled out a coalition with SF in advance of voting.

Seems like most Irish people don't want the Shinners anywhere near the levers of power here.

FrancieBrady

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

Given that people continue to vote for FF/FG despite their well known stance on working SF it seems that FF/FG have a mandate from the people to continue not working with SF. Surely you are not arguing with a mandate from the people? that would be very undemocratic of you.

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Is this how it works in other countries where coalitions are the norm? Are not 'far right' parties basically declared to be untouchable by the 'establishment' in some countries? I'm not saying that's what SF are but I don't think 'all coalition options must be left open' is as much of an iron law of democracies as you are suggesting...

The fact that they are excluding a party on 'fitness' grounds when they have no problem with that party in another jurisdiction is the 'hypocritical' issue here.

ohnonotgmail

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The fact that they are excluding a party on 'fitness' grounds when they have no problem with that party in another jurisdiction is the 'hypocritical' issue here.

the people in the republic dont want SF in power. FF/FG know this so why would they want to work with SF? Lets be honest Francie, the reason they have work with them in the north is because the people of the north keeping voting for them. They accept that the people in the north want SF in power. Why cant you accept that the voters of the republic dont want SF in power?

Salary Negotiator

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The fact that they are excluding a party on 'fitness' grounds when they have no problem with that party in another jurisdiction is the 'hypocritical' issue here.

Because a sizable portion of the people of NI have voted for SF, nothing hypocritical about it. It is simply respecting the wishes of the people.