GE 2020 Cork South Central. See mode note in Post 1

Brussels Sprout

3 of the 4 seats are absolute locks given that this constituency is home to the #1 and #2 of FF and the #2 in FG.
The only questions remaining are

• who will take the final seat
• who will top the poll?

I suspect that Martin will top the poll. Himself and McGrath are usually close enough but I think since there’s a high chance of Martin being a Cork Taoiseach that’ll be worth some extra votes to him.

The final seat is a very tough call. Last time out it was a fight between Ó Laoghaire and Buttimer but both are likely to see a fall in their vote in line with their own party’s vote share dropping from 2016. The Greens will likely see a big improvement given that they got 3 councillors elected in the 3 Southern wards in last year’s locals but Bogue had a relatively low first preference in 2016 so it’s a large gap to make up. I’ll go with Bogue squeezing in after a Green surge and a fall in both FG and SF’s vote share combines to get her over the line after a lot of counts.


MOD NOTE:
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dulpit

South Central is a strange one. It's conceivable that in 6 months time the Taoiseach, Minister of Finance and Leader of the Opposition are all in the same constituency...

Regarding votes, you'd have to assume it's a dogfight between Greens, Sinn Féin and maybe Buttimer for that last seat. I don't think there's a significant Labour candidate, is there?

namloc1980

dulpit wrote: »

South Central is a strange one. It's conceivable that in 6 months time the Taoiseach, Minister of Finance and Leader of the Opposition are all in the same constituency...

Regarding votes, you'd have to assume it's a dogfight between Greens, Sinn Féin and maybe Buttimer for that last seat. I don't think there's a significant Labour candidate, is there?

And we still won't be able to get any infrastructure investment in Cork.

Brussels Sprout

dulpit wrote: »

I don't think there's a significant Labour candidate, is there?

I don't know who they're running. Ciaran Lynch lost his seat during the Labour collapse last time out. It would be a massive ask for them given that they're unlikely to see the same sort of vote % increase of the Greens. They have seats targeted for gains but this isn't one of them.

mikeym

Its down to the issues that affect the constituency that will decide the last seat in the Dail.

Im from the Carrigaline area and I feel that its badly neglected e.g. Road infrastructure, lack of progress on the M28, lack of Garda presence around.
Ballincollig is miles better in terms of infrastructure.

The proposed incinerator is a big issue in Ringaskiddy and the expansion of the port.

Buttimer has stated he wants the M28 rerouted which would mean the motorway going towards Ballygarvan/Ballinhassig. Which means hes going after the affluent vote.

I would love if Micheal Martin didnt get reelected because hes a weak leader with no ideas how to improve the country. The smoking ban was his crowning achievement :rolleyes:

I think we need new Tds not the same old lies from the veteran Td's.

And I think the events centre should be scrapped because im sick of hearing about it on the radio.

bot43

Im registered in Cork NC but have moved back to SC. How do i move my vote??

j8wk2feszrnpao

mikeym wrote: »

I would love if Micheal Martin didnt get reelected because hes a weak leader with no ideas how to improve the country. The smoking ban was his crowning achievement :rolleyes:

The best measure introduced by a Minister for Health that I can remember gets a rolleyes? I'm far from his biggest fan, but he was ahead of the game and it was a worthy introduction.

mikeym wrote: »

And I think the events centre should be scrapped because im sick of hearing about it on the radio.

Something that be hugely beneficial to the city should be scrapped cause you're sick of hearing about it?

Brussels Sprout

bot43 wrote: »

Im registered in Cork NC but have moved back to SC. How do i move my vote??

How do you change your address before voting?

To change your address on the register, you will need to fill out Form RFA3 and give it into your local authorities - this means the county council in the area you are currently listed in.


source

whatever76

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

How do you change your address before voting?

To change your address on the register, you will need to fill out Form RFA3 and give it into your local authorities - this means the county council in the area you are currently listed in.


source

Just posted form off this morning - not sure it will get processed in time now for Feb 8th … BTW you need to go to the cop station to get it signed

bot43

whatever76 wrote: »

Just posted form off this morning - not sure it will get processed in time now for Feb 8th … BTW you need to go to the cop station to get it signed

Neds to be received 14 days prior to the election. It will be tight but will get it done. thanks

mikeym

munstermagic11 wrote: »

The best measure introduced by a Minister for Health that I can remember gets a rolleyes? I'm far from his biggest fan, but he was ahead of the game and it was a worthy introduction.

Yes It was great to end smoking in the workplace but it was back in 2004.

Micheal martin is the biggest bluffer in the Dail.

Ludo

munstermagic11 wrote: »

The best measure introduced by a Minister for Health that I can remember gets a rolleyes? I'm far from his biggest fan, but he was ahead of the game and it was a worthy introduction.

Yes the smoking ban was a good thing. However, I believe he also came up with the bright idea to ban the sale of ten packs cigarettes. Now that wasn't very clever at all. I and a few I used to work with back then used to always buy a ten pack on the way to work. Guess what happened...yep we all doubled the amount we smoked within a week as we had to buy 20 instead.

namloc1980

Ludo wrote: »

Yes the smoking ban was a good thing. However, I believe he also came up with the bright idea to ban the sale of ten packs cigarettes. Now that wasn't very clever at all. I and a few I used to work with back then used to always buy a ten pack on the way to work. Guess what happened...yep we all doubled the amount we smoked within a week as we had to buy 20 instead.

Did he force you to double the amount you smoked? How so? All this post tells us is you have zero self control.

Ludo

namloc1980 wrote: »

Did he force you to double the amount you smoked? How so? All this post tells us is you have zero self control.

lol...obviously no one is forced to smoke. It is simple really. If you have cigrettes you are more likely to smoke them. Instead of being out of them by 7/8 at night and not beong bothered to go to the shop for more, people tended to smoke the rest of the extras they now had due to buying 20 instead of 10. Smokers are not generally known for their self-control when it comes to nicotine.

j8wk2feszrnpao

mikeym wrote: »

Yes It was great to end smoking in the workplace but it was back in 2004.

Yes. That was also the year when he finished as Minister for Health.

mikeym wrote: »

Micheal martin is the biggest bluffer in the Dail.

Not sure what scale you are using, but after the antics of The Taoiseach and Minister for Justice during the RIC affair; I wouldn't have him at the top of the bluffer rankings.

j8wk2feszrnpao

Ludo wrote: »

lol...obviously no one is forced to smoke. It is simple really. If you have cigrettes you are more likely to smoke them. Instead of being out of them by 7/8 at night and not beong bothered to go to the shop for more, people tended to smoke the rest of the extras they now had due to buying 20 instead of 10. Smokers are not generally known for their self-control when it comes to nicotine.

We introduced the ban of 10 cigarettes packs back in 2007, so not sure if it was Martin. Ireland was ahead of an EU ban that came into place in 2016.
It was designed to limit younger people buying cigarettes in cheaper packs of 10. It's the older smokers own fault if they don't have the self control, not those trying to reduce the impact of smoking.

Ludo

munstermagic11 wrote: »

It's the older smokers own fault if they don't have the self control, not those trying to reduce the impact of smoking.

Just as well you don't have any say in public policy with that attitude and lack of common sense...and yes i do see the irony of a former smoker saying someone else lacks common sense :-)
Fair enough it wasn't Martin. Really thought then ten pack ban was before the pub ban.

j8wk2feszrnpao

Ludo wrote: »

Just as well you don't have any say in public policy with that attitude and lack of common sense...

Ah give over and grow up a little. Focus on yourself, not others. You were trying to place blame on someone else (they were trying to tackle young smokers).

I’m all for helping people get over their addiction, to provide the resources and assistance that they need. But maybe also take a look at your own failings, “we had to buy/smoke 20 a week”. How about thinking of those they were trying to help? Just as well you didn’t have input to public policy.

You “state common”, but you don’t appear to display any of your own. You said Martin wasn’t ”clever” to introduce the change (when he didn’t), yet that policy was then enacted across the EU (suggesting it was a good policy). Maybe you’re not so clever yourself?

Ludo

munstermagic11 wrote: »

Ah give over and grow up a little. Focus on yourself, not others. You were trying to place blame on someone else (they were trying to tackle young smokers).

I’m all for helping people get over their addiction, to provide the resources and assistance that they need. But maybe also take a look at your own failings, “we had to buy/smoke 20 a week”. How about thinking of those they were trying to help? Just as well you didn’t have input to public policy.

You “state common”, but you don’t appear to display any of your own. You said Martin wasn’t ”clever” to introduce the change (when he didn’t), yet that policy was then enacted across the EU (suggesting it was a good policy). Maybe you’re not so clever yourself?

Touched a nerve by saying something against the glorious Michael I guess :pac:

mikeym

I wonder will any decent Independent candidates put themselves forward?

Do Labour or the Greens have an outside chance?

Posters are already up.

j8wk2feszrnpao

Ludo wrote: »

Touched a nerve by saying something against the glorious Michael I guess :pac:

As I thought, avoided your own issues again

I’ve never voted for FF, won’t in this election either. Don’t really like Martin (just wouldn’t wrongly accuse him of my own issues).

dulpit

mikeym wrote: »

I wonder will any decent Independent candidates put themselves forward?

There's no point in south central, too many strong party players. No independent has ever represented South Central, Kathy Sinnott did get within a handful of votes in 2002, but no other independent has threatened....

titan18

mikeym wrote: »

I wonder will any decent Independent candidates put themselves forward?

Do Labour or the Greens have an outside chance?

Posters are already up.

Labour seem to have a new candidate so I reckon they won't get in.

I'd say the last spot is between Buttimer, SF and Greens.

teamcyclist

What about Mick Finn? Will he run? He stayed in the hunt the last time round until the 9th count or so and he had the Mayoral chain since

Brussels Sprout

teamcyclist wrote: »

What about Mick Finn? Will he run? He stayed in the hunt the last time round until the 9th count or so and he had the Mayoral chain since

He got to the 2nd last count alright but he was 4,000-6,000 votes behind Buttimer, Coveney and Donnchadh Ó Laoghaire.

Being Lord Mayor would have raised his profile for sure but I can't remember anything he did apart from oppose residential construction in his own central ward.

Can't see him bridging that gap.

mikeym

Ive been looking at the previous elections in Cork South and the Independents never seem to get elected.

The last seat will be a close one and I reckon it could go down to the wire like Dennehy and Sinnott back in 2002.

Looks like People Before Profit have entered a candidate this time round, I dont think Cork South Central vote for left leaning parties historically.

Fianna Fail & Fine Gael always dominate Cork South.

JP Liz V1

McGrath topped last time did he? I imagine he could again

mikeym

mikeym wrote: »

Ive been looking at the previous elections in Cork South and the Independents never seem to get elected.

The last seat will be a close one and I reckon it could go down to the wire like Dennehy and Sinnott back in 2002.

Looks like People Before Profit have entered a candidate this time round, I dont think Cork South Central vote for left leaning parties historically.

Fianna Fail & Fine Gael always dominate Cork South.

From what I heard that time she got shafted, FF knew every mark to look for to invalid her votes.

donnchadh ó laoghaire has a very strong support in togher and ballyphehane and at times seems to be the only one who gets involved. He also participated in charity event like white collar boxing, togher 5k,etc. Which goes down well with the locals

I cant see anything other than McGrath,martin, Coventry and o laoghaire, those candidates have their areas wrapped up

mean gene

Deleted User wrote: »

From what I heard that time she got shafted, FF knew every mark to look for to invalid her votes.

donnchadh ó laoghaire has a very strong support in togher and ballyphehane and at times seems to be the only one who gets involved. He also participated in charity event like white collar boxing, togher 5k,etc. Which goes down well with the locals

I cant see anything other than McGrath,martin, Coventry and o laoghaire, those candidates have their areas wrapped up

is there anything of note o laoghaire did because i cant find anything if all hes done is boxing and a run

mean gene

mikeym wrote: »

I wonder will any decent Independent candidates put themselves forward?

Do Labour or the Greens have an outside chance?

Posters are already up.

greens are finished imo in south central i wouldnt give them a vote at all all they want to do is tax us

j8wk2feszrnpao

mean gene wrote: »

greens are finished imo in south central i wouldnt give them a vote at all all they want to do is tax us

Given that their leader Eamon Ryan wanted Wolves reintroduced to Ireland, I don’t want them need my door.
I’m for increased taxes to pay for additional public resources (in particular to sort out the health system), but I don’t want the Greens in power when their leader has such idiotic suggestions.