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GE 2020 Cork South Central. See mode note in Post 1

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    #62
    Ludo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,015 ✭✭✭Ludo


    SusieBlue wrote: »
    I drove through Ballinlough, Ballintemple and Blackrock this morning, areas you wouldn't typically associate with social housing, and saw plenty of his posters. I saw as many of his as I did for FF/FG.
    So I don't think its a big conspiracy at all.

    It is no conspiracy...it is smart to target your demographic. And it is good he has them up in other areas mentioned above. If they want to be the biggest party eventually they need to be more inclusive. They will be stuck at 15/20% forever without expanding their "base".


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    #63
    Cork Trucker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,553 ✭✭✭Cork Trucker


    SusieBlue wrote: »
    I drove through Ballinlough, Ballintemple and Blackrock this morning, areas you wouldn't typically associate with social housing, and saw plenty of his posters. I saw as many of his as I did for FF/FG.
    So I don't think its a big conspiracy at all.

    Plenty of new or reasonably new social houses on the Boreenmanna road nowadays, also the council have bought secondhand properties in Blackrock/Ballintemple.


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    #64
    kub
    Registered Users Posts: 6,546 ✭✭✭kub


    Cork Trucker wrote: »
    Plenty of new or reasonably new social houses on the Boreenmanna road nowadays, also the council have bought secondhand properties in Blackrock/Ballintemple.

    All factual and the roads as previously mentioned are on the way to Mahon which would have a big socialist type vote.


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    #65
    Cork Trucker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,553 ✭✭✭Cork Trucker


    kub wrote: »
    All factual and the roads as previously mentioned are on the way to Mahon which would have a big socialist type vote.

    Indeed Mahon is pro-dominantly social housing but is less desired in a similar way to Knocknaheeny/Parts of Togher/Farranree/Fairhill/Mayfield. Many posters are being removed under the cover of darkness illegally according to some.


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    #66
    SusieBlue
    Registered Users Posts: 8,029 ✭✭✭SusieBlue


    Cork Trucker wrote: »
    Plenty of new or reasonably new social houses on the Boreenmanna road nowadays, also the council have bought secondhand properties in Blackrock/Ballintemple.

    I was refuting the point that he is only putting up posters in/around council estates.
    What you have said may be true, but those areas are not socioeconomically disadvantged, and they're actually among the wealthiest areas in Cork.


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    #67
    Black_Knight
    Moderators Posts: 12,375 ✭✭✭✭Black_Knight


    expectationlost wrote: »
    nominated candidates being added here https://corkcityreturningofficer.com/index.php/8-general-information/34-nominated-candidates-2020-cork-south-central

    who is this guy Sean O'leary who has nominated himself in about 7 different constituencies in Dublin and Cork so far

    Are those their addresses?
    O Laoghaire is down at this address. Recently sold, and recently got planning for a 2nd house on the site (in the pics). When I seen the planning months ago I thought it was odd, now it makes sense.


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    #68
    Cork Trucker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,553 ✭✭✭Cork Trucker


    Seen this beaut today on Evergreen Road :pac: :pac: :pac:

    https://twitter.com/CorkTruckDriver/status/1220724006145482752?s=20


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    #69
    kub
    Registered Users Posts: 6,546 ✭✭✭kub


    Cork Trucker wrote: »
    Seen this beaut today on Evergreen Road :pac: :pac: :pac:

    https://twitter.com/CorkTruckDriver/status/1220724006145482752?s=20

    Most of the posters which are positioned on the green area approaching the South Link Road from Borreenmanna Road have those beady eyes on them also, each and every candidate has them so at least it is not one party having a pop at another.

    They are refreshingly funny as I hate election posters.


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    #70
    Cork Trucker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,553 ✭✭✭Cork Trucker


    kub wrote: »
    Most of the posters which are positioned on the green area approaching the South Link Road from Borreenmanna Road have those beady eyes on them also, each and every candidate has them so at least it is not one party having a pop at another.

    They are refreshingly funny as I hate election posters.

    I didn't see that. What capped this off for me was that i met Terry Shannon just after spotting it and told him, he said he'd have a look, both him and Buttimer liked the status on Twitter :pac:


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    #71
    Tin Foil Hat
    Registered Users Posts: 1,663 ✭✭✭Tin Foil Hat


    Cork Trucker wrote: »
    Seen this beaut today on Evergreen Road :pac: :pac: :pac:

    https://twitter.com/CorkTruckDriver/status/1220724006145482752?s=20

    I think he might be shocked that he got to earn 60 odd grand a year for the last four years, having been rejected by the electorate in the last election.

    I certainly am.


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    #72
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 7,272 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Here's why the Curraheen Road has posters for candidates in both Cork South and North Central all the way down it:

    VTvEudP.png

    BvzqjmB.png

    h2mNVO7.png


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    #73
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 7,272 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Brussels Sprout wrote: »
    The final seat is a very tough call. Last time out it was a fight between Ó Laoghaire and Buttimer but both are likely to see a fall in their vote in line with their own party’s vote share dropping from 2016. The Greens will likely see a big improvement given that they got 3 councillors elected in the 3 Southern wards in last year’s locals but Bogue had a relatively low first preference in 2016 so it’s a large gap to make up. I’ll go with Bogue squeezing in after a Green surge and a fall in both FG and SF’s vote share combines to get her over the line after a lot of counts.

    On the basis that according to RedC there is a lot of movement in younger voters from Greens -> SF and that SF's polling is pointing away from a large fall in their vote share from 2016 I'll revise my prediction from the OP and say that Ó Laoghaire will hold his seat.


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    #74
    Cork Trucker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,553 ✭✭✭Cork Trucker


    Brussels Sprout wrote: »
    On the basis that according to RedC there is a lot of movement in younger voters from Greens -> SF and that SF's polling is pointing away from a large fall in their vote share from 2016 I'll revise my prediction from the OP and say that Ó Laoghaire will hold his seat.

    If this guy is right it ain't good for the Greens, i do engage with them but can't for the life of me give them a vote, the pain of their last stint in government is still being felt today. Eamon Ryan is the Irish version of Boris Johnson

    https://twitter.com/mrdavidflane/status/1221500821944381442


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    #75
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 7,272 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Cork Trucker wrote: »
    If this guy is right it ain't good for the Greens, i do engage with them but can't for the life of me give them a vote, the pain of their last stint in government is still being felt today. Eamon Ryan is the Irish version of Boris Johnson

    https://twitter.com/mrdavidflane/status/1221500821944381442

    The 2 Cork seats are a reach for them. If they get either of them it'll be on the back of a really good day for them overall and will likely mean 10+ seats with almost all of those coming in Dublin.


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    #76
    Cork Trucker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,553 ✭✭✭Cork Trucker


    Brussels Sprout wrote: »
    The 2 Cork seats are a reach for them. If they get either of them it'll be on the back of a really good day for them overall and will likely mean 10+ seats with almost all of those coming in Dublin.

    I feel that their vote based is primarily the up and coming generation or hard core environmentalists or indeed those listening to them about climate change, i don't buy into it but that's not something to get bogged down in. I don't see a seat for them on the Northern end but the southern constituency is a possibility but it would be a good day as you say.


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    #77
    lawrencesummers
    Registered Users Posts: 8,586 ✭✭✭lawrencesummers


    Tin Foil Hat wrote: »
    I think he might be shocked that he got to earn 60 odd grand a year for the last four years, having been rejected by the electorate in the last election.

    I certainly am.



    We, the people had our opportunity to abolish the Seanad.


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    #78
    dulpit
    Registered Users Posts: 11,052 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    Tin Foil Hat wrote: »
    I think he might be shocked that he got to earn 60 odd grand a year for the last four years, having been rejected by the electorate in the last election.

    I certainly am.

    To be fair, he was rejected by the electorate as a TD, but was elected as a senator. He wasn't a Taoiseach's pick or handed it on a platter.


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    #79
    Cork Trucker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,553 ✭✭✭Cork Trucker


    dulpit wrote: »
    To be fair, he was rejected by the electorate as a TD, but was elected as a senator. He wasn't a Taoiseach's pick or handed it on a platter.

    If Buttimer gets in this time it will only be at the expense of Martin/McGrath/Coveney, SF are safe here, the most vulnerable of the 4 is Coveney.

    In 2011 when FF were on their knees Martin got re-elected and brought McGrath home with him, the only constituency in the country where FF got more than 1 seat, they weathered that storm so this won't be a problem. The M28 steering group are backed by Buttimer but Coveney has steered clear of it, pun intended, so if Simon does get in he'll get the final seat, i don't see anyone else troubling them, it'll definitely be 2FF,1FG,1SF


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    #80
    Realalemadrid
    Registered Users Posts: 160 ✭✭Realalemadrid


    Cork Trucker wrote: »
    If Buttimer gets in this time it will only be at the expense of Martin/McGrath/Coveney, SF are safe here, the most vulnerable of the 4 is Coveney.

    In 2011 when FF were on their knees Martin got re-elected and brought McGrath home with him, the only constituency in the country where FF got more than 1 seat, they weathered that storm so this won't be a problem. The M28 steering group are backed by Buttimer but Coveney has steered clear of it, pun intended, so if Simon does get in he'll get the final seat, i don't see anyone else troubling them, it'll definitely be 2FF,1FG,1SF

    SF are anything but safe. I reckon O'Laoghaire will hold but its too close to call imo.

    FG are so sure of Coveney winning his seat that they have had Buttimer down in Carrigaline Village canvassing on two separate mornings last week. There is no way that would have happened before. Coveney's public persona has sky rocketed in the last 3 years - FG's private polling must be showing something for them to be doing that. They must feel if they get a few thousand over the surplus for SC that he might be able to bring Buttimer with him. To put it in sporting parlance - its a fascinating renewal!

    Bookies are normally a good indicator and apart from the big three they go
    O'Laoghaire 8/15 (to win a seat)
    Bogue 5/6
    Buttimer 7/1


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    #81
    Cork Trucker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,553 ✭✭✭Cork Trucker


    Realalemadrid wrote: »
    SF are anything but safe. I reckon O'Laoghaire will hold but its too close to call imo.

    FG are so sure of Coveney winning his seat that they have had Buttimer down in Carrigaline Village canvassing on two separate mornings last week. There is no way that would have happened before. Coveney's public persona has sky rocketed in the last 3 years - FG's private polling must be showing something for them to be doing that. They must feel if they get a few thousand over the surplus for SC that he might be able to bring Buttimer with him. To put it in sporting parlance - its a fascinating renewal!

    Bookies are normally a good indicator and apart from the big three they go
    O'Laoghaire 8/15 (to win a seat)
    Bogue 5/6
    Buttimer 7/1

    I've never gambled so don't understand bookies odds, is Bogue more favourable than Buttimer to win a seat based on that?


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    #82
    Black_Knight
    Moderators Posts: 12,375 ✭✭✭✭Black_Knight


    Cork Trucker wrote: »
    I've never gambled so don't understand bookies odds, is Bogue more favourable than Buttimer to win a seat based on that?

    Correct. Substantially more favourable. Bookies are saying for every €6 you put on Bogue, we'll pay out €5 (+ your €6 bet) if Bogue wins. For every €1 you put on Buttimer, we'll pay out €7 (+ your €1 bet) if he wins. Bookies see Bogue as having a better chance of getting a seat, and thus limit the amount they'll pay out.


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    #83
    lawrencesummers
    Registered Users Posts: 8,586 ✭✭✭lawrencesummers


    The decrease (or not) in Coveneys vote will be interesting, and he may be in danger but I doubt it, Carrigaline is his base but it’s had crime problems and no Garda presence, an incinerator that he hasn’t exactly opposed, and chronic traffic problems. That’s before you mention the nonevents center and the dunkettle interchange stalling and stalling.

    He simply hasn’t delivered for cork, or Carrigaline but people are parochial


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    #84
    Cork Trucker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,553 ✭✭✭Cork Trucker


    https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/Bookies-favour-incumbents-in-Cork-seats-with-some-possible-surprises-1f9ed9eb-576e-434e-ad31-872865b04d35-ds
    THE four incumbent TDs in Cork South Central are likely to keep their seats in the upcoming general election, according to the latest odds from Paddy Power


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    #85
    lawrencesummers
    Registered Users Posts: 8,586 ✭✭✭lawrencesummers


    The Cork to Bilbao Route has been officially cancelled after a lot of rumours. Not good timing for the local FG candidates as the main reason for cancellation is the road network.

    https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/Major-Cork-ferry-route-cancelled-4055dc59-d23f-404a-bc04-3cc3ab6f0f0b-ds


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    #86
    Ludo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,015 ✭✭✭Ludo


    lawrencesummers wrote: »
    The Cork to Bilbao Route has been officially cancelled after a lot of rumours. Not good timing for the local FG candidates as the main reason for cancellation is the road network.

    https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/Major-Cork-ferry-route-cancelled-4055dc59-d23f-404a-bc04-3cc3ab6f0f0b-ds

    M28 would not have made the slightest difference to this decision.


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    #87
    lawrencesummers
    Registered Users Posts: 8,586 ✭✭✭lawrencesummers


    Ludo wrote: »
    M28 would not have made the slightest difference to this decision.

    Maybe and maybe not, but a motorway from limerick, a dunkettle interchange a proper road east and west and a north ring road, all long overdue projects would have and not having this major route now makes the case for each of these projects a little weaker.


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    #88
    Ludo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,015 ✭✭✭Ludo


    lawrencesummers wrote: »
    Maybe and maybe not, but a motorway from limerick, a dunkettle interchange a proper road east and west and a north ring road, all long overdue projects would have and not having this major route now makes the case for each of these projects a little weaker.

    Yep...agree with all that.

    I am probably completely wrong here, but I always think the problem in South Central is actually that the TDs are too high profile.

    After this election we may have the Taoiseach, finance minister and opposition leader as someone mentioned earlier.

    I always feel these guys dont have the time for "local" stuff as they are so busy climbing that ladder and then staying there.

    The likes of the Healy-Reas, Lowrys and other TDd don't have to bother with that crap. They horse trade their votes for schemes to keep them in their seats and can spend their time fully on local issues.


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    #89
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 7,272 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    Ludo wrote: »
    I always feel these guys dont have the time for "local" stuff as they are so busy climbing that ladder and then staying there.

    The likes of the Healy-Reas, Lowrys and other TDd don't have to bother with that crap. They horse trade their votes for schemes to keep them in their seats and can spend their time fully on local issues.

    I might be in the minority but I quite like having representatives in our national parliament who are more interested in national issues. It's no coincidence that Lowry and the Healy-Raes have some of the worst records when it comes to committee attendance and Dail speaking time. They're basically glorified county councillors who spend their time attending funerals and looking for planning permissions and medical cards for people.


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    #90
    Kazbah
    Registered Users Posts: 764 ✭✭✭Kazbah


    First time ever I won't vote for any FF/FG candidates.
    I'll go 1-Green 2-Soc Dem 3-Labour and that's it
    No one else on that long ballot I'd like to see get a seat.


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    #91
    Cork Trucker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,553 ✭✭✭Cork Trucker


    https://twitter.com/KevDoyle_Indo/status/1063838828308381696


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