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GE 2020 Cork South Central. See mode note in Post 1

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    #122
    Mefistofelino
    Registered Users Posts: 1,862 ✭✭✭Mefistofelino


    mean gene wrote: »
    Is that you Dan

    Funnily enough, the greens were canvassing the exact same areas the night after SF.


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    #123
    Cork Trucker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,553 ✭✭✭Cork Trucker


    mean gene wrote: »
    Is that you Dan

    He has an account here, PlainDanBoyle


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    #124
    Mr Tickle
    Registered Users Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭Mr Tickle


    Kazbah wrote: »
    First time ever I won't vote for any FF/FG candidates.
    I'll go 1-Green 2-Soc Dem 3-Labour and that's it
    No one else on that long ballot I'd like to see get a seat.
    Ludo wrote: »
    That is kinda my thinking at the moment also. May change though as still not 100% sure of the order.

    I'm in the same boat too.
    What i'd like to know is is there any value in voting tactically within that selection?
    So if i want any of them to get in ahead of anyone else, could it make a difference which order i put them in? And to that end, is there local polling data available to us?


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    #125
    Billythekid19
    Registered Users Posts: 166 ✭✭Billythekid19


    Mr Tickle wrote: »
    I'm in the same boat too.
    What i'd like to know is is there any value in voting tactically within that selection?
    So if i want any of them to get in ahead of anyone else, could it make a difference which order i put them in? And to that end, is there local polling data available to us?

    So Martin, Mcgrath and Coveney are all shoe ins. The final seat is a dogfight between Bogue and OLaoghaire. So essentially your most important preference is whether you put SF or Greens a higher preference.


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    #126
    Mr Tickle
    Registered Users Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭Mr Tickle


    Billythekid19 wrote: »
    So Martin, Mcgrath and Coveney are all shoe ins. The final seat is a dogfight between Bogue and OLaoghaire. So essentially your most important preference is whether you put SF or Greens a higher preference.

    I'm hoping the fact that someone has removed the googly eyes from the FF posters on the boreenmanna road will prove that they're no craic so only one of them will get in.


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    #127
    dulpit
    Registered Users Posts: 11,052 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    Mr Tickle wrote: »
    I'm in the same boat too.
    What i'd like to know is is there any value in voting tactically within that selection?
    So if i want any of them to get in ahead of anyone else, could it make a difference which order i put them in? And to that end, is there local polling data available to us?

    The benefit of PR-STV is that you shouldn't need to worry about tactical voting, the transfers as people are elected or eliminated should ensure your vote goes where it's needed. It's not always correct though, as a combined vote of 2 candidates could exceed the needed threshold, but they both get eliminated earlier. But ultimately you should vote in the order you want.

    Regarding local polling, I don't think any has been carried out for public consumption in Cork...


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    #128
    SusieBlue
    Registered Users Posts: 8,029 ✭✭✭SusieBlue


    Can anyone answer me this please.
    I only intend to vote for 2 candidates, is it better to leave it at that or to continue numbering my preferences 3,4,5..etc. or should I stop at 2? Which option gives the 2 candidates I want to vote for the best chance of getting through? Hope that makes sense.

    This whole concept of transfer votes confuses the hell out of me and I'm not sure what course of action to take.


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    #129
    dulpit
    Registered Users Posts: 11,052 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    SusieBlue wrote: »
    Can anyone answer me this please.
    I only intend to vote for 2 candidates, is it better to leave it at that or to continue numbering my preferences 3,4,5..etc. or should I stop at 2? Which option gives the 2 candidates I want to vote for the best chance of getting through? Hope that makes sense.

    This whole concept of transfer votes confuses the hell out of me and I'm not sure what course of action to take.

    The impact to the 2 candidates you give 1 & 2 to will be 0 if you do or don't give a 3rd or lower preference also. What does matter is that your vote could ultimately end up being non-transferrable. So if neither of your 2 candidates get elected then your vote ends, and you lower preference (which I would guess you would have - could be a comparison between terrible and very terrible) will not be reflected.


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    #130
    lawrencesummers
    Registered Users Posts: 8,586 ✭✭✭lawrencesummers


    Billythekid19 wrote: »
    So Martin, Mcgrath and Coveney are all shoe ins. The final seat is a dogfight between Bogue and OLaoghaire. So essentially your most important preference is whether you put SF or Greens a higher preference.



    Coveney is not a shoe in by any stretch of the imagination, and he could well be the Biggest victim of an anti FG vote.

    McGrath will probably top the poll and Martin will get in, but the other 2 seats are a 4 horse race between DOL, LB, JB and SC.


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    #131
    Cork Trucker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,553 ✭✭✭Cork Trucker


    One thing that does look certain is that security will be majorly beefed up in Cork for the next 5 years, both in Carrigaline and Ballinlough with the Finance Minister Elect & Taoiseach elect as much as it kills me to say it.


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    #132
    Cork Trucker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,553 ✭✭✭Cork Trucker


    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1225471477316825088


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    #133
    rob316
    Registered Users Posts: 18,128 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    lawrencesummers wrote: »
    Coveney is not a shoe in by any stretch of the imagination, and he could well be the Biggest victim of an anti FG vote.

    McGrath will probably top the poll and Martin will get in, but the other 2 seats are a 4 horse race between DOL, LB, JB and SC.

    Donnocha will take the Sinn fein vote so will be ok.


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    #134
    dulpit
    Registered Users Posts: 11,052 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    lawrencesummers wrote: »
    Coveney is not a shoe in by any stretch of the imagination, and he could well be the Biggest victim of an anti FG vote.

    McGrath will probably top the poll and Martin will get in, but the other 2 seats are a 4 horse race between DOL, LB, JB and SC.

    Coveney is very much safe. Its really down to whether or not the green wave beats the sinn fein surge. I expect incumbency will win out and sinn fein take seat.


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    #135
    dulpit
    Registered Users Posts: 11,052 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    Cork Trucker wrote: »
    One thing that does look certain is that security will be majorly beefed up in Cork for the next 5 years, both in Carrigaline and Ballinlough with the Finance Minister Elect & Taoiseach elect as much as it kills me to say it.

    And I wouldn't be surprised if the leader of fine Gael is down here too if Leo gets a big enough beating...


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    #136
    Cork Trucker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,553 ✭✭✭Cork Trucker


    dulpit wrote: »
    And I wouldn't be surprised if the leader of fine Gael is down here too if Leo gets a big enough beating...

    Leo maintains Paschal Donohoe will succeed him


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    #137
    dulpit
    Registered Users Posts: 11,052 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    Cork Trucker wrote: »
    Leo maintains Paschal Donohoe will succeed him

    The party members voted strongly for Coveney, but the voting arrangement meant the parliamentary party had a much higher say. I reckon they won't make same mistake twice, and I also think FG would be doing better with Coveney in charge.


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    #138
    Cork Trucker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,553 ✭✭✭Cork Trucker


    dulpit wrote: »
    The party members voted strongly for Coveney, but the voting arrangement meant the parliamentary party had a much higher say. I reckon they won't make same mistake twice, and I also think FG would be doing better with Coveney in charge.

    I see Coveney taking the top job in FG myself


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    #139
    UDAWINNER
    Registered Users Posts: 860 ✭✭✭UDAWINNER


    If Paschal gets the top job, FG will be truly goosed as the guy is a total waffler.
    Hope it happens:D


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    #140
    lawrencesummers
    Registered Users Posts: 8,586 ✭✭✭lawrencesummers


    dulpit wrote: »
    Coveney is very much safe. Its really down to whether or not the green wave beats the sinn fein surge. I expect incumbency will win out and sinn fein take seat.

    I very much disagree. I think he is in big trouble.


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    #141
    Ludo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,015 ✭✭✭Ludo


    lawrencesummers wrote: »
    I very much disagree. I think he is in big trouble.

    There are more than enough votes for FG to take a seat here. Every prediction I have seen says Coveney is safe. I would love to know who you think will take the 4 seats and in what order?


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    #142
    lawrencesummers
    Registered Users Posts: 8,586 ✭✭✭lawrencesummers


    Ludo wrote: »
    There are more than enough votes for FG to take a seat here. Every prediction I have seen says Coveney is safe. I would love to know who you think will take the 4 seats and in what order?

    1.mcgrath
    2. Meehole
    3&4 between donnacha ol, Coveney, Bogue and possibly Buttimer.

    It’s possible that Coveney will get in but in the last election he only scraped through. If I was a betting man it’s worth a bet to say he won’t. I think the protest voting against FG could damage him, the move to SF and Green could as well. I just don’t see it as a simple conclusion of the 4 that will get in and that there will be very little between third, fourth and fifth.

    What do you think it will be?


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    #143
    Ludo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,015 ✭✭✭Ludo


    Agree except I think Coveney will be safe in third. SF will take 4th seat comfortably from the greens...and just for full disclosure, I intend to vote for the greens number 1.

    Don't bother asking why and pointing out their deficiencies. I know, but on balance of who has the least offensive candidates and policies, they seem to come out marginally on top.


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    #144
    Cork Trucker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,553 ✭✭✭Cork Trucker


    Ludo wrote: »
    Agree except I think Coveney will be safe in third. SF will take 4th seat comfortably from the greens...and just for full disclosure, I intend to vote for the greens number 1.

    Don't bother asking why and pointing out their deficiencies. I know, but on balance of who has the least offensive candidates and policies, they seem to come out marginally on top.
    If everyone has that approach Bogue will top the poll. SF voter here


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    #145
    Ludo
    Registered Users Posts: 5,015 ✭✭✭Ludo


    Cork Trucker wrote: »
    If everyone has that approach Bogue will top the poll. SF voter here

    Every party has deficiencies. I'm sure you disagree with some of SF policies bit will still, on balance, still vote for them. And that's as it should be.

    I'm of an age that I cannot in good conscience vote for SF. I believe they are full of populist nonsense and are basically criminals. But I understand others disagree. And that's fine. Different strokes and all that...

    It'll be an interesting Sunday watching the counts anyway.


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    #146
    Cork Trucker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,553 ✭✭✭Cork Trucker


    Ludo wrote: »
    Every party has deficiencies. I'm sure you disagree with some of SF policies bit will still, on balance, still vote for them. And that's as it should be.

    I'm of an age that I cannot in good conscience vote for SF. I believe they are full of populist nonsense and are basically criminals. But I understand others disagree. And that's fine. Different strokes and all that...

    It'll be an interesting Sunday watching the counts anyway.

    Indeed, no party is perfect, SF like all others could do more, i'm of an age myself when i remember the pre GFA activities, but a generation has passed, a leadership change occurred and different times we now live in, both North & South.

    The memory of the Greens in government is still very raw with me.

    Indeed i look forward to both the exit poll tomorrow night as well as the counting on Sunday, i don't foresee a major shock across the 5 Cork constituencies as a whole however.


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    #147
    lawrencesummers
    Registered Users Posts: 8,586 ✭✭✭lawrencesummers


    Ludo wrote: »
    Every party has deficiencies. I'm sure you disagree with some of SF policies bit will still, on balance, still vote for them. And that's as it should be.

    I'm of an age that I cannot in good conscience vote for SF. I believe they are full of populist nonsense and are basically criminals. But I understand others disagree. And that's fine. Different strokes and all that...

    It'll be an interesting Sunday watching the counts anyway.

    A lot of people put forward that point of view relating to SF, and while I can see that it has merit it annoys me because it completely washes over the earlier efforts of the republican movements that Essentially fought as an army against another one. Without the republican movement where would we be now? Voting Tory?

    Genuine question, If people are going to go back in history as a basis for their beliefs then is it not unreasonable to only go as far back in history as suits? The opposite is also true course, hammering a party for their sins of decades ago and ignoring the recent form. Some see FG as the blueshirts and nothing else. People tend to decide according to the snapshot that suits them and it can be a narrow minded view that annoys me.


    I do feel that SF and many of its supporters have not embraced the change that they so often allude to, But I also think that being in power would force them to walk the talk and would bring their true colors to the fore.


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    #148
    Brussels Sprout
    Registered Users Posts: 7,272 ✭✭✭Brussels Sprout


    The Greens were unlucky in that they did nothing to cause the crash (they weren't in government until 2007) but became a lightening rod for when everything fell apart.

    Whatever about they likes of CSC they are radioactive in rural Ireland (to be fair any policies to reduce Carbon emissions in this country will disproportionately affect rural Ireland since agriculture and transport are such large sources of emissions).

    They will almost certainly be in the next government but I'll be shocked if Lorna Bogue will be there with them.


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    #149
    Curb Your Enthusiasm
    Registered Users Posts: 3,479 ✭✭✭Curb Your Enthusiasm


    Will the results be known generally within a day or two?


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    #150
    Cork Trucker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,553 ✭✭✭Cork Trucker


    Curb Your Enthusiasm wrote: »
    Will the results be known generally within a day or two?

    Exit poll tomorrow night will give an indication of how it may look, results will start filtering through from around lunchtime on Sunday.


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    #151
    dulpit
    Registered Users Posts: 11,052 ✭✭✭✭dulpit


    lawrencesummers wrote: »
    A lot of people put forward that point of view relating to SF, and while I can see that it has merit it annoys me because it completely washes over the earlier efforts of the republican movements that Essentially fought as an army against another one. Without the republican movement where would we be now? Voting Tory?

    Genuine question, If people are going to go back in history as a basis for their beliefs then is it not unreasonable to only go as far back in history as suits? The opposite is also true course, hammering a party for their sins of decades ago and ignoring the recent form. Some see FG as the blueshirts and nothing else. People tend to decide according to the snapshot that suits them and it can be a narrow minded view that annoys me.


    I do feel that SF and many of its supporters have not embraced the change that they so often allude to, But I also think that being in power would force them to walk the talk and would bring their true colors to the fore.

    Sinn Fein and the IRA back in the 1920s had broad popular support of the country when the war of independence was being waged. The provos never did. That's a major difference.


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