General Election 2020 - See MOD note in First Post

hardybuck

Dum_Dum wrote: »

With me: no cranes = no votes - it's a simple as that.

So how many cranes for one vote?

Dum_Dum

hardybuck wrote: »

So how many cranes for one vote?

It's a metaphor for actual visible progress, as opposed to pipe-dreams and 'plans'.

hardybuck

Dum_Dum wrote: »

It's a metaphor for actual visible progress, as opposed to pipe-dreams and 'plans'.

What's your take on visible progress that's been made, or do you feel that Waterford hasn't made any progress?

Dunmoreroader

hardybuck wrote: »

What's your take on visible progress that's been made, or do you feel that Waterford hasn't made any progress?

Luckily we don't have to rely on official government spin/press releases/carefully edited statistics or Maurice Cummin's strongly worded letters in the local press, we have impartial academic analysis to inform us;
https://www.wit.ie/images/uploads/Business_School_PDF/South_East_Economic_Monitor_2019.pdf

- some things done, a lot still to do. Context is everything and in the context of the state investment our peer cities/regional capitals have received, over the 2 terms of this government, compared to Waterford, we're gotten S.F.A.

crazy_kenny

Sinn Fein would be better off running a second candidate. David Cullinane will top the poll. Surely his surplus you’d imagine would go to the second Sinn Fein candidate.

hardybuck

Dunmoreroader wrote: »

Luckily we don't have to rely on official government spin/press releases/carefully edited statistics or Maurice Cummin's strongly worded letters in the local press, we have impartial academic analysis to inform us;
https://www.wit.ie/images/uploads/Business_School_PDF/South_East_Economic_Monitor_2019.pdf

- some things done, a lot still to do. Context is everything and in the context of the state investment our peer cities/regional capitals have received, over the 2 terms of this government, compared to Waterford, we're gotten S.F.A.

With all the will in the world, the lads in WIT will do the very same thing as everyone else - they'll tell their version of the story. Lecturers are well able to take on work for lobbyists to influence Government policy, and regularly do.

Dunmoreroader

hardybuck wrote: »

With all the will in the world, the lads in WIT will do the very same thing as everyone else - they'll tell their version of the story. Lecturers are well able to take on work for lobbyists to influence Government policy, and regularly do.

Well I think they compile the data from official sources, so do you think the conclusions they draw are;
a) inaccurate?
b) biased?
c) telling us in an academic format what the dogs in the street already know?

hardybuck

Dunmoreroader wrote: »

Well I think they compile the data from official sources, so do you think the conclusions they draw are;
a) inaccurate?
b) biased?
c) telling us in an academic format what the dogs in the street already know?

I think they've chosen a few indicators, sourced some official data and put it into a bit of a summary for you.

Ray Griffin has been an outspoken critic of Government policy for some time, and has spoken passionately about what he perceives as a lack of political patronage in Waterford. That sort of thing doesn't lend itself to impartial reporting on the subject matter.

We could do comparative analysis until the dogs come home, but we could also reflect on the positive improvements that have been achieved.

azimuth17

hardybuck wrote: »

Ray Griffin has been an outspoken critic of Government policy for some time, and has spoken passionately about what he perceives as a lack of political patronage in Waterford. That sort of thing doesn't lend itself to impartial reporting on the subject matter.

.

If you are suggesting that Ray Griffin's analysis, which is entirely based on government stats AFAIK, is biased, then you had better declare your political allegiance. The SEEM analysis is professional, balanced and almost solely criticised by government hangers on and apologists. Which of them are you?

Dunmoreroader

hardybuck wrote: »

I think they've chosen a few indicators, sourced some official data and put it into a bit of a summary for you.

Ray Griffin has been an outspoken critic of Government policy for some time, and has spoken passionately about what he perceives as a lack of political patronage in Waterford. That sort of thing doesn't lend itself to impartial reporting on the subject matter.

We could do comparative analysis until the dogs come home, but we could also reflect on the positive improvements that have been achieved.

I think we should do comparative analysis until the dogs come home, until our ducks are lined up in a row and until we hit the nail on the head. We are where we are and the present government will keep kicking the can down the road until their chickens come home to roost.
But I'm not one for trite cliches.

mooseknunkle

crazy_kenny wrote: »

Sinn Fein would be better off running a second candidate. David Cullinane will top the poll. Surely his surplus you’d imagine would go to the second Sinn Fein candidate.

Imagine John Hearne representing us in The Dáil :eek:

hardybuck

azimuth17 wrote: »

If you are suggesting that Ray Griffin's analysis, which is entirely based on government stats AFAIK, is biased, then you had better declare your political allegiance. The SEEM analysis is professional, balanced and almost solely criticised by government hangers on and apologists. Which of them are you?

Ah lads, FFS.

Everyone knows that stats can be utilised to basically further any argument. 'Government Spin Machines' or whatever you want to call them don't have a monopoly on spin.

I have noted that Griffin is an outspoken critic of Government policy. I think the chap himself would strongly confirm that. I'm not sure if he has any political allegiances himself - or if that influences his work, consciously or otherwise.

This discussion is in danger of descending into another whinge fest.

hardybuck

Dunmoreroader wrote: »

I think we should do comparative analysis until the dogs come home, until our ducks are lined up in a row and until we hit the nail on the head. We are where we are and the present government will keep kicking the can down the road until their chickens come home to roost.
But I'm not one for trite cliches.

But you do love a good metaphor in fairness to you.

crazy_kenny

mooseknunkle wrote: »

Imagine John Hearne representing us in The Dáil :eek:

Can’t be any worse than the Healy Rae’s.

friendlyfun

Butler needs to to go asap.

jmcc

hardybuck wrote: »

I think this mindset needs to be challenged. A small fish politician can come up to Dublin and bang tables all he or she likes, but empty vessels make the most noise, and that's the easy stuff. Plenty of them in the Dáil.

An unusual turn of phrase. Are you in Dublin?

Regards...jmcc

hardybuck

jmcc wrote: »

An unusual turn of phrase. Are you in Dublin?

Regards...jmcc

You've never heard that before?

jmcc

hardybuck wrote: »

You've never heard that before?

For someone in Waterford, it would be "go up to Dublin". That's why it looked a bit odd.

Regards...jmcc

Gardner

crazy_kenny wrote: »

Sinn Fein would be better off running a second candidate. David Cullinane will top the poll. Surely his surplus you’d imagine would go to the second Sinn Fein candidate.

i wouldn't be so sure. the upper and middle class voters will be out to vote on a Saturday. people have money in their back pockets and the economy is growing and very positive. Sinn Fein vote collapsed in the last local and european elections due to the above mentioned circumstances. i'd expect them to lose 2 to 3 TD's nationally but Cullinane won't be one of them. id say he will come in 2nd or 3rd.

Gardner

mooseknunkle wrote: »

Imagine John Hearne representing us in The Dáil :eek:

i was once on a boat to Palestine with Bobby Sands and Martin Ferris and my pet hedgehog and then i woke up at the bar in the Craftsman.

hardybuck

Gardner wrote: »

i wouldn't be so sure. the upper and middle class voters will be out to vote on a Saturday. people have money in their back pockets and the economy is growing and very positive. Sinn Fein vote collapsed in the last local and european elections due to the above mentioned circumstances. i'd expect them to lose 2 to 3 TD's nationally but Cullinane won't be one of them. id say he will come in 2nd or 3rd.

Yeah SF have had a very difficult local and European election, but did well at the recent by elections. Think they'd do very well to keep the seats they currently have.

Gardner

hardybuck wrote: »

Yeah SF have had a very difficult local and European election, but did well at the recent by elections. Think they'd do very well to keep the seats they currently have.

By-Elections are one thing i'd never take any significant note from. Turnout very poor everywhere and a ot of candidates and parties would be keeping a lot up their sleeve till the GE

jmcc

Gardner wrote: »

i wouldn't be so sure. the upper and middle class voters will be out to vote on a Saturday. people have money in their back pockets and the economy is growing and very positive. Sinn Fein vote collapsed in the last local and european elections due to the above mentioned circumstances. i'd expect them to lose 2 to 3 TD's nationally but Cullinane won't be one of them. id say he will come in 2nd or 3rd.

I think that Waterford East had a long history of reelecting at least one FG candidate in the Local Elections. Seeing Matt Shanahan topping the poll like that should have been a wake-up call to FG because it seems to have lost at least one set of votes that it had taken for granted. If this dynamic plays out on a larger scale, then Shanahan may well get elected. Now whether it will be at the expense of an FG candidate or a replacement for John Halligan is the big question.

Halligan's vote has traditionally been left of centre. Shanahan's vote seems to come from all over the political spectrum. FG seems to be in disarray over the retirement of John Deasy and Paudie Coffey. Coffey would have been the logical successor for Deasy. Now, it seems that FG is a West Waterford party with Waterford City producing a mixed set of candidates. John Cummins seems to be yet another political dynast. That kind of thing might play badly and it could take another GE for him to become a viable candidate if the FG vote is badly split. FF had it with the Kenneally seat. Eddie Mulligan may well get a stronger vote in the city than Mary Butler but it there is a low possibility that both FF candidates could get elected with Halligan not being in the election.

The Greens, based on the performance of Grace O'Sullivan in the Euros might be in with a chance if the younger voters vote Green. As for Labour, Conway was another West Waterford candidate who just happened to be in the right place at the right time. Labour has been almost completely invisible in the media for the last few years and people might not realise that it still exists as a party.

Regards...jmcc

hardybuck

I was wondering when discussion would turn green. Apparently that chap from Tramore is fairly solid as a candidate.

I don't think it'll be just the younger voters going towards them.

jmcc

hardybuck wrote: »

I was wondering when discussion would turn green. Apparently that chap from Tramore is fairly solid as a candidate.

The Irish Green Party is not Leftist like its European counterparts. Its voter demographics are quite different. There is an expectation that the Greens will actually cause more damage nationally to FG in terms of votes in the GE as they've become the acceptable "None Of The Above" vote. That niche used to be occupied by Labour in that people couldn't bring themselves to vote FF/FG/SF. Most of Labour's 2011 vote was actually a borrowed FF vote. Some of still has to drift back to FF. General Elections tend to have a cyclical quality in how votes move across parties.

Regards...jmcc

Wanderer78

hardybuck wrote:

I was wondering when discussion would turn green. Apparently that chap from Tramore is fairly solid as a candidate.

Mark will be getting my vote anyway, but I generally default to the greens. I still suspect overall, we won't see much change nationally, another confidence and supply wouldn't surprise me

hardybuck

jmcc wrote: »

The Irish Green Party is not Leftist like its European counterparts. Its voter demographics are quite different. There is an expectation that the Greens will actually cause more damage nationally to FG in terms of votes in the GE as they've become the acceptable "None Of The Above" vote. That niche used to be occupied by Labour in that people couldn't bring themselves to vote FF/FG/SF. Most of Labour's 2011 vote was actually a borrowed FF vote. Some of still has to drift back to FF. General Elections tend to have a cyclical quality in how votes move across parties.

Regards...jmcc

Which is why they did so well in so many affluent areas of the country in the local elections.

They'll attract middle class voters who aren't particularly convinced by the FF or FG candidates in their areas, who fancy a change, or who think FF or FG are going to get in anyway and want to share their vote around.

jmcc

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Mark will be getting my vote anyway, but I generally default to the greens. I still suspect overall, we won't see much change nationally, another confidence and supply wouldn't surprise me

The last Dail was highly unusual in that it had a Big Three model where each of the two largest parties could not form a government with the smallest party. This was quite different from the Two and a Half party model that had been common up to that point. Purely on sentiment, FF could be looking at a number of seats in the mid sixties with FG losing up to twenty seats. The Greens did extremely well in the Locals and outperformed Labour. Labour lost 81 seats in the 2014 LEs and only managed to gain 6 last May and ended up with 57. The Greens gained 37 seats and ended up with 49 seats. That is quite a gain for the Greens. The media seems to think that little will change but they don't really have much of an understanding of numbers. The only good commentators in that respect are Michael Marsh (TCD) and Noel Whelan (RIP). The media got the outcome of the 2016 GE wrong.

The conditions are there for a major upset with the Greens doing better than expected. Not sure if there is a Green seat in Waterford but with FG being out of favour, anything is possible. To use an Amercianism, a possible path to a seat for the Greens could be Shanahan doing well and his surplus bringing the Green candidate across the line.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

hardybuck wrote: »

Which is why they did so well in so many affluent areas of the country in the local elections.

They'll attract middle class voters who aren't particularly convinced by the FF or FG candidates in their areas, who fancy a change, or who think FF or FG are going to get in anyway and want to share their vote around.

It is far worse than that for FF and FG. Voting Green is now a sign of being clever and also one of virtue signalling. People like to be thought of as being smart and it is far more acceptable to vote Green now than it has been any time in the past. There has been relentless Green issues propaganda from the media and it has effectively primed people to vote Green. It is not simply about people in affluent areas voting Green. There is now a social cachet to voting Green that just doesn't apply to FF/FG/Labour.

Regards...jmcc

Wanderer78

jmcc wrote:

The conditions are there for a major upset with the Greens doing better than expected. Not sure if there is a Green seat in Waterford but with FG being out of favour, anything is possible. To use an Amercianism, a possible path to a seat for the Greens could be Shanahan doing well and his surplus bringing the Green candidate across the line.

I live in hope of some sort of change, but my pessimism is creeping in, even though I do agree, I do think the greens could throw a spanner in the works, but my gut is telling me to thrust my instincts

jmcc

Wanderer78 wrote: »

I live in hope of some sort of change, but my pessimism is creeping in, even though I do agree, I do think the greens could throw a spanner in the works, but my gut is telling me to thrust my instincts

The Greens should have been doing much better in Waterford. If the Greens take a seat in Waterford at the expense of FG, it will be a complete disaster for FG given its history here.

Regards...jmcc

hardybuck

I can't see a situation where the Greens get more than 8-10 seats. That's an increase of 300-400%.

I see Labour keeping what they have and maybe adding one or two.

SF to lose 2-4 seats.

FF to get just under 50. FG to get just over 50.

Either FG or FF in a coalition with Greens and others.

Wanderer78

jmcc wrote:

The Greens should have been doing much better in Waterford. If the Greens take a seat in Waterford at the expense of FG, it will be a complete disaster for FG given its history here.

I'm not convinced the greens will take a seat in Waterford, I think they're probably a bit too wishy-washy for most voters, which is understandable, but I think it might be interesting to see where the younger votes go in this regard

Wanderer78

hardybuck wrote:

Either FG or FF in a coalition with Greens and others.

I'm also thinking this could be a possible outcome, and I'd go with ff over fg

Max Powers

hardybuck wrote: »

I can't see a situation where the Greens get more than 8-10 seats. That's an increase of 300-400%.

I see Labour keeping what they have and maybe adding one or two.

SF to lose 2-4 seats.

FF to get just under 50. FG to get just over 50.

Either FG or FF in a coalition with Greens and others.

Certainly seems from all the pollstars (who can be mad wrong obviously) like the FF/FG part of that might be accurate, I'd think the other way around myself, ff over 50, fg under. I hope we vote wisely according to who will be in power, we probably need a foot in both camps for sure.
if anyone wants to see what 2 government TDs can do for a constituency recently, just look at 20m for connacht rugby stadium, why? 2FG td's.

jmcc

hardybuck wrote: »

I can't see a situation where the Greens get more than 8-10 seats. That's an increase of 300-400%.

That's purely in seat terms. It is not in terms of votes. The PBP/etc crowd were just one seat away from Labour's total but they have highly concentrated votes.

I see Labour keeping what they have and maybe adding one or two.

Labour is already down two as I think that Brendan Ryan and Willie Penrose are not running in the GE. Joan Burton might also retire. Alan Kelly only scraped in the last time. Brendan Howlin has been a disaster for Labour though he will probably get reelected.

SF to lose 2-4 seats.

Possibly. Though it might also go the other way as Mary-Lou McDonald has been slowly moving the party to the centre.

FF to get just under 50. FG to get just over 50.

Seems to be the consensus in the media but then they are not stats heads and don't appreciate how small changes can have big effects in the electoral system.

Either FG or FF in a coalition with Greens and others.

Haven't seen any polling data yet.

Regards...jmcc

hardybuck

When we're talking about Government formation we're talking about seats.

Labour definitely have an issue with a lot of candidates pushing well into their 60s and 70s. Look at the bauld Micky D hitting 79 in a couple of months sure. They have the likes of Amadán O'Riordan who hasn't gone away and who might take Finian McGrath's vacant seat, and Joan Burton is running.

I'm not sure if SF have been moved into the center or if they're just a bit lost under the current leadership. Have suffered from a bit of infighting and poor election results. The deal up the north and the by election results were badly needed to keep their supporters optimistic.

Agree that the FF or FG number could easily swing in either direction on the day.

Wanderer78

hardybuck wrote:

I'm not sure if SF have been moved into the center or if they're just a bit lost under the current leadership. Have suffered from a bit of infighting and poor election results. The deal up the north and the by election results were badly needed to keep their supporters optimistic.

I think sf and labour are goosed, sf should have moved Mary lou on, I think they'll be badly damaged after this one. Labour were sent packing the last time to do some soul searching, I'm not convinced it occurred

AdMMM

People vote Green in Ireland when they're doing well enough financially to not have to worry about the impact on their pocket of their policies. For the Greens to win in Waterford, there needs to be enough affluent areas (or younger voters who aren't financially independent).

SF should top the poll in Waterford, especially with the number of people who voted John Halligan 1 and David Cullinane 2 during the last election. They ran in the old Ward 3 for years so they also had massive transferable votes between each other. That being said SF are in trouble nationally. Every time they try move to the centre, they get cold feet and make some gesture to move them back to the left. They'll always struggle to get more than 15% of the vote so long as they're in this state of paralysis.

Wanderer78

AdMMM wrote:

People vote Green in Ireland when they're doing well enough financially to not have to worry about the impact on their pocket of their policies. For the Greens to win in Waterford, there needs to be enough affluent areas (or younger voters who aren't financially independent).

Some might do, but I certainly have never voted greens on such bases

AdMMM

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Some might do, but I certainly have never voted greens on such bases

Sorry, it's a bit of a generalization.

There are lots of principled voters who vote carefully based on their principles out there. There'll be many on here and other sites because they have that active interest in politics and policies. I'd love if there was more of them. However, most voters vote based on who they think will put more money in their pocket, or are creatures of habit and vote how they always have.

Harry Palmr

John Halligan interview on WLR now until 11 am. Warning DT is doing his personal chit chat first rather than just politics

jmcc

Max Powers wrote: »

Certainly seems from all the pollstars (who can be mad wrong obviously) like the FF/FG part of that might be accurate, I'd think the other way around myself, ff over 50, fg under. I hope we vote wisely according to who will be in power, we probably need a foot in both camps for sure.

The danger with the polling companies is that they are taking a small sample of people that is representative of the electorate and trying to guess how they will vote. A poll is only a snapshot of public opinion at a particular point in time. The problem is that voting patterns for most people only crystalise in the last week or so of the election campaign. The other problem is that journalists tend to try to extrapolate national polls (of about 1,000 to 3,000 voters) to local constituencies and fail. Thus a fringe group like PBP/etc might have less than 1% support in these polls but still win 6 seats. I'm not sure that any of the polls detected the rise of FF in 2016.

Regards...jmcc

Gael23

Halligans votes are all on the left so will favour Sinn Fein over Shanahan I believe.

I think the Fianna Fáil vote will split creating a difficulty for Butler, she will get in by the skin of her teeth on transfers
I think John Cummins is in with an outside chance, he has a better profile than the other FG candidate

noby

Gael23 wrote: »

I think John Cummins is in with an outside chance, he has a better profile than the other FG candidate

The other FG candidate has a pretty high profile in the West/Dungarvan, and has done well in the locals down here. I haven't seen the full list, but is there any one else running from the west? That could all help Geoghegan's chances.

hardybuck

Cummins got 862 first preference votes in the Waterford East in the LE - 11.83%.

That put him in second place within his own Ward, where his father had been a presence for decades, and he's been representing for five years and was the only FG candidate. He's had plenty of opportunity to win over voters, and has increased his first preferences by 82 in a Ward electorate that grew by 2,142.

That type of performance would have seen him challenging for the last 1-2 seats remaining in most other Wards.

His counterpart, Geogheghan, in contrast achieved 20.03% of first preferences in the Dungarvan Ward, which also had a second FG candidate elected and a third just missing out.

FG got 23.71% of first preferences in Lismore, 40.89% in Portlaw Kilmachthomas, and 38.37% in Dungarvan. Therefore, in my opinion Geogheghan will most likely take a seat from that rural vote and Cummins will hope to fight for a second from his transfers.

Gael23

hardybuck wrote: »

Cummins got 862 first preference votes in the Waterford East in the LE - 11.83%.

That put him in second place within his own Ward, where his father had been a presence for decades, and he's been representing for five years and was the only FG candidate. He's had plenty of opportunity to win over voters, and has increased his first preferences by 82 in a Ward electorate that grew by 2,142.

That type of performance would have seen him challenging for the last 1-2 seats remaining in most other Wards.

His counterpart, Geogheghan, in contrast achieved 20.03% of first preferences in the Dungarvan Ward, which also had a second FG candidate elected and a third just missing out.

FG got 23.71% of first preferences in Lismore, 40.89% in Portlaw Kilmachthomas, and 38.37% in Dungarvan. Therefore, in my opinion Geogheghan will most likely take a seat from that rural vote and Cummins will hope to fight for a second from his transfers.

Will that cost Butler her seat?

jmcc

hardybuck wrote: »

Cummins got 862 first preference votes in the Waterford East in the LE - 11.83%.

That put him in second place within his own Ward, where his father had been a presence for decades, and he's been representing for five years and was the only FG candidate. He's had plenty of opportunity to win over voters, and has increased his first preferences by 82 in a Ward electorate that grew by 2,142.

That type of performance would have seen him challenging for the last 1-2 seats remaining in most other Wards.

His counterpart, Geogheghan, in contrast achieved 20.03% of first preferences in the Dungarvan Ward, which also had a second FG candidate elected and a third just missing out.

FG got 23.71% of first preferences in Lismore, 40.89% in Portlaw Kilmachthomas, and 38.37% in Dungarvan. Therefore, in my opinion Geogheghan will most likely take a seat from that rural vote and Cummins will hope to fight for a second from his transfers.

In a GE, it isn't the percentages in LE constituencies that count but rather the votes. If he doesn't get enough votes to stay in the running, he loses. Same goes for Geoghan (sp?). The city votes will be crucial for this and there's a chance that Shanahan could take a lot of those city votes from FG.

Regards...jmcc

hardybuck

Gael23 wrote: »

Will that cost Butler her seat?

That'll be very interesting alright.

Coffey not running will probably help her, and FF got between 20-30% of the first preferences in the Wards in west and mid county.

I think she gets in and Eddie Mulligan does not.

hardybuck

jmcc wrote: »

In a GE, it isn't the percentages in LE constituencies that count but rather the votes. If he doesn't get enough votes to stay in the running, he loses. Same goes for Geoghan (sp?). The city votes will be crucial for this and there's a chance that Shanahan could take a lot of those city votes from FG.

Regards...jmcc

True, but the three Wards I mentioned have an electorate of 40,441. The city Wards have an electorate of 29,885, and I don't know the split of Tramore/Waterford City West which is 16,215.

FG did very poorly in those city Wards, taking just 2 of the 18 seats - Cummins and Lola O'Sullivan (Grace's sister) in Tramore.