General Election 2020 - See MOD note in First Post

91wx763

vriesmays wrote: »

Who's Maurice Lonergan.

Fianna Fáil supporter, used to own pub on the quay that's now Nells.

Iveee

friendlyfun wrote: »

Butler was a disgrace. The woman doesn't belong in politics. She said wasn't in favour of exclusion zones so perfectly okay for women who just had an abortion to be taunted.

I agree, the only time I heard her in the last 4 years was something about not allowing young people get tattoos.


I am going with Mulligan, a good while ago I had a few family issues and needed support. I contacted nearly all the local politicians. He was the only one to help me. I found him to have a real interested in improving all of Waterford.

Tiger Roll

DLS_75 wrote:

And now Mary Butler has been exposed for allowing Brendan Kenneally to canvas for her. How stupid can you get

Nypd wrote:

Didn’t see anything about that has this only come out ?

Also one of Bill's victims posting on Facebook this evening that Mary Butler rents her constituency office from Brendan , no surprise he is canvassing for her

spookwoman

Tiger Roll wrote: »

Also one of Bill's victims posting on Facebook this evening that Mary Butler rents her constituency office from Brendan , no surprise he is canvassing for her

That's been know for years that she rents from him and it's been in the papers. Pro life what do you expect ,they say they don't give a hoot what happens to the children after they are born....

wagtail99

AdMMM wrote: »

I just had a bit of fun in Excel trying to run through transfer and counts. In my (rough) simulation, it came out as:

Cullinane to get elected in the first count with 1.2 of a quota
Shanahan and Geoghegan to be elected on after the elimination of Cummins
Butler to be elected on the distribution of Mulligan
O'Cathasaigh to call for a full recount because of how close it is.

Something went wrong there, you end up with more votes at the end (53.2k) that you are estimating were actually cast (51k). I didnt look at details too closely but the distribution of Cummins votes looks wrong, with too many transfers to Geoghegan

skodacb

Personally I'm going Cullinane 1, Mulligan 2, and probably O’Cathasaigh 3rd.


Butler won't get a thing from me as her views around the abortion referendum completely put me off.

Shanahan wrapped the cardiac care around himself and while I agree it is important for it to be delivered for the region, he as an independent cannot do it.

Nothing against Pratt other than he's Labour and I can't forget their past mistakes yet.

The rest are either to far left or right of my personal views.

spookwoman

skodacb wrote: »

Personally I'm going Cullinane 1, Mulligan 2, and probably O’Cathasaigh 3rd.


Butler won't get a thing from me as her views around the abortion referendum completely put me off.

Shanahan wrapped the cardiac care around himself and while I agree it is important for it to be delivered for the region, he as an independent cannot do it.

Nothing against Pratt other than he's Labour and I can't forget their past mistakes yet.

The rest are either to far left or right of my personal views.

I think a lot of people feel that way about PBP, too far left and personally feel they live in cloud cuckoo land.

dartboardio

My voting card never arrived in the post. I registered to vote for the abortion referendum 2018 and voted for the first time.

Im still living at the same address.

Can I just go to my voting station and bring id?

dartboardio

dartboardio wrote: »

Can I just go to my voting station and bring id?

Yep.

spookwoman

dartboardio wrote: »

My voting card never arrived in the post. I registered to vote for the abortion referendum 2018 and voted for the first time.

Im still living at the same address.

Can I just go to my voting station and bring id?

what to do if registered and have no card https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/general-election-2020-can-vote-17686591

check to see if on the register https://www.checktheregister.ie/PublicPages/Default.aspx?uiLang=

I'll be going;

1. Cullinane
2. O' Cathasaigh
3. Dunphy

Wanderer78

spookwoman wrote:

I think a lot of people feel that way about PBP, too far left and personally feel they live in cloud cuckoo land.

Wouldn't overly worry about them, they ll probably never play a part in government

friendlyfun

Iveee wrote: »

I agree, the only time I heard her in the last 4 years was something about not allowing young people get tattoos.


I am going with Mulligan, a good while ago I had a few family issues and needed support. I contacted nearly all the local politicians. He was the only one to help me. I found him to have a real interested in improving all of Waterford.

I have always found him useful as a politician. When I was a student in 2014 I was doing some project with politicians. He was the only one to respond and was more than happy to help.

friendlyfun

These health equality campaigns should NEVER associate with one particular candidate. They should not allow these important issues become vehicles for personal gain. If Shanahan joins a political party it will look very bad on them, if its not looking bad already.

KevIRL

Tiger Roll wrote: »

Also one of Bill's victims posting on Facebook this evening that Mary Butler rents her constituency office from Brendan , no surprise he is canvassing for her

Brendan Kenneally actually called to the door of one of the victims last night canvassing. Jason Clancy has a post on FB on it, could really hit the Butler campaign.

lassykk

KevIRL wrote: »

Brendan Kenneally actually called to the door of one of the victims last night canvassing. Jason Clancy has a post on FB on it, could really hit the Butler campaign.

Problem is that it most likely won't.

The prevailing opinion on here is that she's useless and shouldn't be anywhere near the Dail but she's still heavily fancied to retain her seat.

Makes no sense.

I'm sadly not in the constituency so I can't vote against her!

Squidvicious

skodacb wrote: »

Personally I'm going Cullinane 1, Mulligan 2, and probably O’Cathasaigh 3rd.


Butler won't get a thing from me as her views around the abortion referendum completely put me off.

Shanahan wrapped the cardiac care around himself and while I agree it is important for it to be delivered for the region, he as an independent cannot do it.

Nothing against Pratt other than he's Labour and I can't forget their past mistakes yet.

The rest are either to far left or right of my personal views.

One interesting feature of this campaign is how some people say that they will vote against people who were on the pro-life side of the campaign. However, FG seem to get zero credit for introducing the referendum. I know that many people are fed up with FG for various reasons but surely they deserve at least some recognition for this? While the referendum won comfortably in the end, that wasn't necessarily obvious at the start of the campaign and it was a risk for them.

Wanderer78

Squidvicious wrote: »

One interesting feature of this campaign is how some people say that they will vote against people who were on the pro-life side of the campaign. However, FG seem to get zero credit for introducing the referendum. I know that many people are fed up with FG for various reasons but surely they deserve at least some recognition for this? While the referendum won comfortably in the end, that wasn't necessarily obvious at the start of the campaign and it was a risk for them.

fair play to fg for going against their historic conservationism, it was a major risk, for many different reasons, but its not currently translating, i think theyre gonna get a whooping tomorrow, but not as bad as the polls are saying

Junior

KevIRL wrote: »

Brendan Kenneally actually called to the door of one of the victims last night canvassing. Jason Clancy has a post on FB on it, could really hit the Butler campaign.

https://twitter.com/mcgarrigle1/status/1225461608140431360?s=12

curmudgeonly

The Rain and wind forecast for tomorrow will be music to the ears of the FF and FG parties, as we all know keyboard warriors melt in the rain!

Wanderer78

curmudgeonly wrote: »

The Rain and wind forecast for tomorrow will be music to the ears of the FF and FG parties, as we all know keyboard warriors melt in the rain!

it ll definitely throw a spanner in the works, possibly leading to a very unusual outcome

BBM77

curmudgeonly wrote: »

The Rain and wind forecast for tomorrow will be music to the ears of the FF and FG parties, as we all know keyboard warriors melt in the rain!

A lot of SF voters will want somebody to go out and vote for them

Muttley79

Cork 18 seats
Galway 8 seats
Limerick 7 seats
Waterford 4 seats!!!
Why are we at such a disadvantage against the other cities outside of Dublin!!
Wexford 5 seats
Kilkenny-carlow 5 seats.

Teebor15

Who I'd like to get elected

1 - Cummins
2 - Cullinane
3 - Mulligan
4 - Shanahan

I realise that shows my City bias!

Who I think will get elected

1 - Cullinane
2 - Butler
3 - Geoghegan
4 - Shanahan

Cullinane would be in with a reasonable shout of a cabinet position if Sinn Fein somehow manage to get into power. He is by far our most astute politician, sure of himself and rarely ruffled. While a cabinet position for Waterford is a priority i'm still dubious about Sinn Fein overall.

Cummins I think would be a good man to get in but only if Fine Gael were to resume power. He a champion of the North Quays which I think we badly need to go ahead. I'm not sure Waterford will return 2 Fine Gael TD's so I think he'll play second fiddle to Geoghegan who will hoover up the vote in the West.

Shanahan will get in on the 24/7 wave. It will be interesting to see how he gets on. Will he align with a party? Go it alone? achieve anything at all?

I don't think anyone here has come out and said Mary Butler has done a good job for Waterford. It's just a pity that won't translate on the ballot paper. She has been beyond useless, except for bringing bus loads of pensioners to the Dail for the day! She looks way out of her depth as a TD never mind getting a Ministerial position and Micheal Martin knows that, she is a number to him nothing else. Her recent interviews are all about trying to get through it without effing up rather than pushing her ideas! In saying all that it will hard to see her go from topping the polls last time to not getting in at all. Her mid county location in Portlaw means she will have a huge catchment area of pensioners who will give her the nod.

There is something about Mulligan that has me doubting his ability to be effective I just can't put my finger on it. But many I've spoke to say he will do a good job so i'll bow to their superior knowledge. If he does nothing else except push his running mate Butler out of the picture then that's a good days work!

Muttley79

Muttley79 wrote: »

Cork 18 seats
Galway 8 seats
Limerick 7 seats
Waterford 4 seats!!!
Why are we at such a disadvantage against the other cities outside of Dublin!!
Wexford 5 seats
Kilkenny-carlow 5 seats.

Population.

BBM77

Muttley79 wrote: »

Cork 18 seats
Galway 8 seats
Limerick 7 seats
Waterford 4 seats!!!
Why are we at such a disadvantage against the other cities outside of Dublin!!
Wexford 5 seats
Kilkenny-carlow 5 seats.

Constituencies are based on counties not cities. If Waterford city was a constituency as it should be in reality, a Waterford city metropolitan area constituency which would include part of south Kilkenny. County Waterford would have a population too small to be a constituency on it’s own so would have to be part of the Tipperary constituency. This kind of messing with the thousands year old county boundaries would cause the sun to fail to rise and a plague of biblical proportions.

hardybuck

Wanderer78 wrote: »

fair play to fg for going against their historic conservationism, it was a major risk, for many different reasons, but its not currently translating, i think theyre gonna get a whooping tomorrow, but not as bad as the polls are saying

Don't forget that their leader is gay, and they also were at the helm when the marriage equality referendum went through (which was in fairness a Labour priority that they facilitated).

They would appear to be an awful lot more liberal than FF.

AdMMM

wagtail99 wrote: »

Something went wrong there, you end up with more votes at the end (53.2k) that you are estimating were actually cast (51k). I didnt look at details too closely but the distribution of Cummins votes looks wrong, with too many transfers to Geoghegan

Yes, you're right! I was using a wrong formula to calculate the number of votes to transfer. It was actually so wrong that I don't know how the results weren't wrong.



Updated version above. Butler won't be happy until Mulligan is eliminated.

DLS_75

Butler may get a hit after the issues with the Kenneallys.

AdMMM

Butler may get a hit after the issues with the Kenneallys.

I have a feeling that it'll reaffirm people's views who weren't going to vote FF anyway. Will probably hurt them slightly on transfers, but they don't need to rely on other transfers to get elected, just need to make sure they have a strong FF->FF strategy in place.