General Election 2020 - See MOD note in First Post

Mysterypunter

hardybuck wrote: »

We only had one this year. Seems to be going out of fashion.

Sinn Fein had a group of canvassers, they went to 38 houses, only 5 people in the total were registered to vote. Leaflets and social media now I think

Squidvicious

marlin vs wrote: »

Bull****.

Why would you call it bull****? Now, it may or may not be correct, but it would hardly be a huge surprise if a party concentrated their canvassing in areas where they thought they would be most successful.

Jamie2k9

Based on exit we are likely looking at SF, FG, FF and either FG/FF for final seat.

No way Davids transfers will get anyone over the line.

Harry Palmr

SF were on track for a quota and a half they reckoned (whoever 'they' are!) so that's a lot of votes which will be up for grabs - they could be "wasted" but they could end up, with help from everyone elses excess getting a Green over the line without even reaching the quota.

Labour have had a 'mare.

Love to see the local exit polling.

Gael23

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Based on exit we are likely looking at SF, FG, FF and either FG/FF for final seat.

No way Davids transfers will get anyone over the line.

There will be very few transfers. Shinners don’t do number 2

Tiger Roll

Jamie2k9 wrote:

Based on exit we are likely looking at SF, FG, FF and either FG/FF for final seat.

Jamie2k9 wrote:

No way Davids transfers will get anyone over the line.

You would need to see Waterford percentages first . No way do FF or FF get 2 seats if they are on 22%

Harry Palmr

Gael23 wrote: »

There will be very few transfers. Shinners don’t do number 2

If the expected numbers are correct, most of the voters for DC will not be dyed in the wool "Shinners" they will be ordinary people who cast two or three preferences.

Jamie2k9

Tiger Roll wrote: »

You would need to see Waterford percentages first . No way do FF or FF get 2 seats if they are on 22%

The 2016 local result and exit was more less spot on for FF though only one running. SF were slightly above locally.

FG local was about 10% below however the final seat and fifth placed candidate both FG was only about 400 votes so if FG improved 1/2 preferences they might have a shout.

I don't see Green's picking up a seat in Waterford guess it really comes down to the type that voted for John H where the majority moved to this year.

Cullinane voters will go left. There's zero chance most of them go right.

I think Greens and Indies will do well off Cullinane. Pity they didn't run two candidates here, I reckon both would get in. If/when we have another election before the year's out, we'll surely have two.

Tiger Roll

Jamie2k9 wrote:

I don't see Green's picking up a seat in Waterford guess it really comes down to the type that voted for John H where the majority moved to this year.

I think greens will get the last seat .

Jamie2k9

Tiger Roll wrote: »

I think greens will get the last seat .

They would need over 10% increase in votes to get the final seat and they have flopped outside Dublin. I don't see transfers delivering that much of a swing because number 1 votes will be low. There is no Green wave...

Tiger Roll

Jamie2k9 wrote:

They would need over 10% increase in votes to get the final seat and they have flopped outside Dublin. I don't see transfers delivering that much of a swing because number 1 votes will be low. There is no Green wave...

Grace got 3500 first preferences last time. If Marc gets over 5000 I think he gets lots of transfers from SF and Dunphy and Shanahan too.

Jamie2k9

Tiger Roll wrote: »

Grace got 3500 first preferences last time. If Marc gets over 5000 I think he gets lots of transfers from SF and Dunphy and Shanahan too.

Nope just 2,237 (LAB got more 1st pref) and she finished out at 2,968. Greens would need about 8,000 and over to get final seat. I see them coming a close fifth or sixth.

https://www.irishtimes.com/election-2016/waterford

Tiger Roll

Jamie2k9 wrote:

Nope just 2,237 (LAB got more 1st pref) and she finished out at 2,968. Greens would need about 8,000 and over to get final seat. I see them coming a close fifth or sixth.

Yes you are correct I read wrong article so . I still think greens will get one

Harry Palmr

The changing of the guard makes Waterford tricky to guess beyond basic party polling numbers. Deasy gone, Halligan gone, Coffee not standing and Fine Gael with a pretty weak paring (IMO), feels like a lot of votes are up for grabs

AdMMM

Looks like 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 IND.

The Munster exit polls always come with a warning because they have the FF stronghold in Cork. For Waterford I reckon SF will come in above that and FF will come in below it.

If those exit polls are any way accurate O' Cathasaigh must have gotten in*


*I wouldn't wipe my arse with any poll.

AdMMM

Deleted User wrote: »

If those exit polls are any way accurate O' Cathasaigh must have gotten in*


*I wouldn't wipe my arse with any poll.

How? There's an independent in Waterford who's likely going to poll above him....

Jamie2k9

AdMMM wrote: »

Looks like 1 SF, 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 IND.

The Munster exit polls always come with a warning because they have the FF stronghold in Cork. For Waterford I reckon SF will come in above that and FF will come in below it.

Thing with IND in Munster is Kerry, Tip and maybe West Cork skew IND % but I tend to agree it will be IND or a big party for final seat.

15% in Munster and 8.4% in Leinster (excl Dublin)

jmcc

Some laugh if Mulligan gets in and Butler does not. However, Shanahan may well get in on the second or third count if the LE dynamics are replicated. FG might even be in trouble with a Hell of a fight for the last seat.

Regards...jmcc

AdMMM

jmcc wrote: »

Some laugh if Mulligan gets in and Butler does not. However, Shanahan may well get in on the second or third count if the LE dynamics are replicated. FG might even be in trouble with a Hell of a fight for the last seat.

Regards...jmcc

Won't be that early. There'll be at least 4 counts until we get to eliminate candidates with a meaningful amount of votes.

I'll be honest, I don't know how the FF vote in Waterford is split. Mulligan will poll strongly in the city but his main blocker is I'm assuming to be Shanahan. My logic being that he topped the poll in the locals and FF in the city are tarnished by the Butler and Martin photo in front of the hospital (Mulligan being guilty by association). Those voters would gravitate towards Shanahan. Butler has a free run at the county FF vote where 24/7 means less the further west you go.

Cullinane is the only guarantee.

Aquos76

Deleted User wrote: »

Cullinane voters will go left. There's zero chance most of them go right.

I think Greens and Indies will do well off Cullinane. Pity they didn't run two candidates here, I reckon both would get in. If/when we have another election before the year's out, we'll surely have two.

Do they have a second candidate that they could have run though?

Imreoir2

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

Nope just 2,237 (LAB got more 1st pref) and she finished out at 2,968. Greens would need about 8,000 and over to get final seat. I see them coming a close fifth or sixth.

https://www.irishtimes.com/election-2016/waterford

I doubt it, two candidates were elected on less than 6,000 1st pref votes in both 2011 and 2007.

Greens are looking at a doubling of support this time out, likely well over 5,000 votes. It will be close but they will be more transfer friendly than most of their rivals.

Imreoir2

AdMMM wrote: »

How? There's an independent in Waterford who's likely going to poll above him....

Ó Cathasaigh is one of the stronger Green candidates in Munster. If they got 7.4% accross Munster then it should be well over that in Waterford.

Imreoir2

Aquos76 wrote: »

Do they have a second candidate that they could have run though?

I think the obvious choice for a 2nd SF candidate would be Conor McGuinness in the west.

jmcc

AdMMM wrote: »

Won't be that early. There'll be at least 4 counts until we get to eliminate candidates with a meaningful amount of votes.

Let's see. It is going to be interesting watching the tallies.

I'll be honest, I don't know how the FF vote in Waterford is split. Mulligan will poll strongly in the city but his main blocker is I'm assuming to be Shanahan.

If Shanahan gets elected early, his surplus could split at a rate of 2:1 to FF (as in the Locals). That could benefit Mulligan.

My logic being that he topped the poll in the locals and FF in the city are tarnished by the Butler and Martin photo in front of the hospital (Mulligan being guilty by association).

Nah the guilt by association thing will hit Butler for the Keneally connection.

Those voters would gravitate towards Shanahan. Butler has a free run at the county FF vote where 24/7 means less the further west you go.

Yep but the city vote is concentrated. Waterford is a real city rather than a collection of villages cobbled together. That makes the city vote more monolithic than fragmented.

Regards...jmcc

robtri

the whole countries poll..... interesting the differences between Munster

Gardner

Cullinane on course to get 20k votes and one of the biggest in the country

Shanahan second unfortunately
Green will take a seat
Fight for the 4th seat between FF FG and Lab.

SF should have run the second candidate and would have won easily

AdMMM

Shanahan needs to do a bit better in the county boxes from what I've seen of the tallys. Cullinanes surplus should help him there though I would think.

By the way, this should be useful to anyone who can't make it: http://www.tinyurl.com/waterford2020