General Election 2020 - See MOD note in First Post

Junior

AdMMM wrote: »

Shanahan needs to do a bit better in the county boxes from what I've seen of the tallys. Cullinanes surplus should help him there though I would think.

By the way, this should be useful to anyone who can't make it: http://www.tinyurl.com/waterford2020

Watching it there now, seems to be Culinane clear, Butler/Shanahan 2nd/3rd and a bit of a fight for Cummins and O'Cathasaigh.

Cummins would probably get something from Geoghegan if he gets eliminated, so as we all know transfers will be hugely important. But it looks like same ole same ole in Waterford really.

Harry Palmr

DC 40% after 5% of boxes! Two quotas at least. Obviously early days. Greens on 7. something

kingbhome

robtri wrote: »

the whole countries poll..... interesting the differences between Munster

If it finishes like this, what does this mean for the next government

Harry Palmr

Well it could be

FG/SF
FF/SF
FF/FG (confidence and supply)
FG/FF (confidence and supply)
FG/FF coalition

none of which feels plausible as I type but numbers will force the issue.

Hopefully SF stay in opposition and run more candidates in the election next year.

Harry Palmr

National polling on reasons for vote

Tiger Roll

Just got a text saying that 56% of boxes in Waterford tallied and Cullinane has the quota reached already , very impressive vote for him

AdMMM

Interesting comment from DC on WLRfm - a lot of his transfers going to Una Dunphy and Greens. Doesn't think his transfers will be enough to bring Shanahan across the line.

kingbhome

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Well it could be

FG/SF
FF/SF
FF/FG (confidence and supply)
FG/FF (confidence and supply)
FG/FF coalition

none of which feels plausible as I type but numbers will force the issue.

What's the difference between a coalition and confidence and supply?

Harry Palmr

Well FF were never inside the tent in the last administration , they were like the fella in the front office who glanced over a letter and stamped it dutifully. No real power or policy influence. Brexit was the only thing keeping that arrangement going.

karlndes

AdMMM wrote: »

Interesting comment from DC on WLRfm - a lot of his transfers going to Una Dunphy and Greens. Doesn't think his transfers will be enough to bring Shanahan across the line.

A lot of City East boxes unopened where Shanahan is doing really well.

hardybuck

kingbhome wrote: »

What's the difference between a coalition and confidence and supply?

Up to now that's meant FG Ministers leading the Government, working on the basis that FF would block anything they really don't like, and FF getting some of their key priorities on the agenda.

Coalition obviously means some of their people as Ministers leading Departments and having much more control.

Harry Palmr

So the "last seat" is probably between Shanahan (IND), Greens and ?

AdMMM

Harry Palmr wrote: »

So the "last seat" is probably between Shanahan (IND), Greens and ?

That's probably it. Maybe a bit of drama also to see if the FG seat will be Cummins or Geoghegan. Cummins currently ahead but the west Waterford boxes will affect that.

karlndes

Harry Palmr wrote: »

So the "last seat" is probably between Shanahan (IND), Greens and ?

Just those two it seems. Mulligan will get Butler over the line. Geoghegan will get Cummins over the line

Injuryprone

Might there be a chance that Sinn Fein push for a second vote that will enable them to put up more candidates? So it'll either be a FF/FG coalition or a re-vote

Harry Palmr

"Are you local?"

Dungarvan and westward is it's own political ecosystem looking at the tallies, the only outsider getting votes is Cullinane. The split is so obvious is almost feels like the county should be divided into separate constituencies.

AdMMM

Injuryprone wrote: »

Might there be a chance that Sinn Fein push for a second vote that will enable them to put up more candidates? So it'll either be a FF/FG coalition or a re-vote

Risky business to force a new election, especially so transparently.

tayto lover

Well it seems like most people have come to the realisation that a vote for the Greens is a waste of a vote and would have meant a serious rise in taxes.

Green policies will be dealt with by the main parties in a reasonable fashion without the madness.

Harry Palmr

/\ the greens have doubled their vote in Waterford at the very least

All credit to @Jamie_Moore



https://t.co/9pUWtC6PMN?amp=1

robtri

Injuryprone wrote: »

Might there be a chance that Sinn Fein push for a second vote that will enable them to put up more candidates? So it'll either be a FF/FG coalition or a re-vote

on what grounds would they request a second vote???

hardybuck

tayto lover wrote: »

Well it seems like most people have come to the realisation that a vote for the Greens is a waste of a vote and would have meant a serious rise in taxes.

Green policies will be dealt with by the main parties in a reasonable fashion without the madness.

I wouldn't agree with that assessment.

I expect to see them with 8-10 seats which would be in line with expectations and a 300-400% increase in their seats.

tayto lover

hardybuck wrote: »

I wouldn't agree with that assessment.

I expect to see them with 8-10 seats which would be in line with expectations and a 300-400% increase in their seats.

Still way below what they would have expected.
Pension age rated higher with people.

hardybuck

tayto lover wrote: »

Still way below what they would have expected.
Pension age rated higher with people.

If you could find me an assessment where there was an expectation of getting way above 8-10 seats I'd appreciate it.

no.8

tayto lover wrote:

Well it seems like most people have come to the realisation that a vote for the Greens is a waste of a vote and would have meant a serious rise in taxes.

As opposed to SF's fantasy policies. Good one Tayto the propaganda machine.
Simply put there is a strong divide between their pull for rural voters versus urban dwellers

lassykk

After all the complaints about her Mary Butler walking it again

tayto lover

hardybuck wrote: »

If you could find me an assessment where there was an expectation of getting way above 8-10 seats I'd appreciate it.

It’s my opinion. I think they’ll be gutted that they didn’t get a higher percentage. They had everything going for them with the Australian fires, storms etc.

tayto lover

no.8 wrote: »

As opposed to SF's fantasy policies. Good one Tayto the propaganda machine.
Simply put there is a strong divide between their pull for rural voters versus urban dwellers

I’m not SF. Never have been.

no.8

tayto lover wrote:

It’s my opinion. I think they’ll be gutted that they didn’t get a higher percentage. They had everything going for them with the Australian fires, storms etc.

Ah yes, let's jump on board natural disasters. Wonderful.

I think they have more to them then that...as do most parties. E.g. infrastructure, sustainability, health, housing.

Harry Palmr

I'm listening to WLR and someone (Sean ?) is suggesting FG might actually fail to elect a seat (vote management issue)