General Election 2020 - See MOD note in First Post

friendlyfun

Is there anyway FF could lead a coalition without SF?

dzilla

friendlyfun wrote: »

Is there anyway FF could lead a coalition without SF?

FF + FG + Greens ?

hardybuck

friendlyfun wrote: »

Is there anyway FF could lead a coalition without SF?

They have options to do that certainly.

They need 80 seats in a coalition, or if they are somewhere short of that they need someone (i.e. FG) to support them without being in coalition with them - like they did with FG in the last Government under the Confidence and Supply.

hardybuck

dzilla wrote: »

FF + FG + Greens ?

Whatever smaller party, or parties, they have as coalition partner they'll need some form of FG involvement. That could be as a coalition partner or a minority Government agreement like the last Government had.

noby

hardybuck wrote: »

Or my initial prediction of a FF-Green coalition underpinned by a performance and supply arrangement from FG.
.

If FG abstain in a C&S agreement, then the new majority is 63.
FF + Greens = 50

You're still looking at, eg, Labour ( or SD) + about ten Indies for a bit of wiggle room.
We're really heading into new territory with a C&S coalition like that.

Lord Derpington

friendlyfun wrote: »

Is there anyway FF could lead a coalition without SF?

Theoretically.. any of the following are possible without SF, with a majority achieved @81.


FF LAB SOL-PBP GP SD AON IND IND 4 CHA Total
38 6 5 12 6 1 19 1 88

FG LAB SOL-PBP GP SD AON IND IND 4 CHA Total
35 6 5 12 6 1 19 1 85

FF FG IND Total
38 35 19 92

hardybuck

noby wrote: »

If FG abstain in a C&S agreement, then the new majority is 63.
FF + Greens = 50

You're still looking at, eg, Labour ( or SD) + about ten Indies for a bit of wiggle room.
We're really heading into new territory with a C&S coalition like that.

If you have FF and Greens in coalition you have 50 seats which is one more than FG led the last Government with.

FG supporting this minority Government under a similar C&S agreement gives the Government 87 votes for key votes which is enough to keep things going for a couple of years.

I think another election is at least as likely, if not more likely, than this scenario playing out however.

tayto lover

noby wrote: »

If FG abstain in a C&S agreement, then the new majority is 63.
FF + Greens = 50

You're still looking at, eg, Labour ( or SD) + about ten Indies for a bit of wiggle room.
We're really heading into new territory with a C&S coalition like that.

The power hungry Alan Kelly ( if he gets the Labour leadership job ) would jump at that. Actually hope he doesn’t get it.

Harry Palmr

I have a feeling FF and FG will actually manage to bury the hatchet, disappoint some senior figures in both parties and form a formal coalition with one of the small parties

debok

Be election after election until we vote the right way.

noby

hardybuck wrote: »

If you have FF and Greens in coalition you have 50 seats which is one more than FG led the last Government with.

FG supporting this minority Government under a similar C&S agreement gives the Government 87 votes for key votes which is enough to keep things going for a couple of years.

I think another election is at least as likely, if not more likely, than this scenario playing out however.

FG had 50 seats, plus 9 others.
FF abstained to allow them a majority.

Agreeing to vote with the govt, but not be on the govt benches is a different thing, and may be a hard sell.

noby

Lord Derpington wrote: »

Theoretically.. any of the following are possible without SF, with a majority achieved @81.


FF LAB SOL-PBP GP SD AON IND IND 4 CHA Total
38 6 5 12 6 1 19 1 88

FG LAB SOL-PBP GP SD AON IND IND 4 CHA Total
35 6 5 12 6 1 19 1 85

FF FG IND Total
38 35 19 92

Theoretically, yes, but can you really see SolPbP going in with either FF or FG?

Dexpat

Harry Palmr wrote: »

I have a feeling FF and FG will actually manage to bury the hatchet, disappoint some senior figures in both parties and form a formal coalition with one of the small parties

Think this is the most likely outcome at this stage. Probably with the greens but maybe some independents too. FF and FG won't want another election as they are vulnerable to losing more seats to SF.

There would be up roar from SF but FFG could have 5 years to steal their thunder and implement policies on housing and health to give the impression of change. Might not see off the SF challenge but a lot can change in that time.

It would be good to see Cullinane as a minister but at least we could have 3 TDs involved if Greens and Shanahan play a part in new government. How much power or influence they have is another matter though.

Imreoir2

debok wrote: »

Be election after election until we vote the right way.

What do you mean "the right way"? It will be election after election until we vote in a stable government, be that under SF leadership, FF/FG leadership or Peoples Front of Judea leadership.

If people elect enough SF TDs there will be a SF government, there is no one to force us to vote again "the right way" should that happen.

Gael23

Lord Derpington wrote: »

Theoretically.. any of the following are possible without SF, with a majority achieved @81.


FF LAB SOL-PBP GP SD AON IND IND 4 CHA Total
38 6 5 12 6 1 19 1 88

FG LAB SOL-PBP GP SD AON IND IND 4 CHA Total
35 6 5 12 6 1 19 1 85

FF FG IND Total
38 35 19 92

No combination will last long.

dark crystal

So...SF get the largest number of first preference votes around the country, gain more seats than FG and equal to FF (one FF seat was automatically awarded, not voted for), yet we're back to FFG??

We're a great little country alright.

debok

Imreoir2 wrote: »

What do you mean "the right way"? It will be election after election until we vote in a stable government, be that under SF leadership, FF/FG leadership or Peoples Front of Judea leadership.

If people elect enough SF TDs there will be a SF government, there is no one to force us to vote again "the right way" should that happen.

Your assuming I meant FF or fg are the right way?sorry I meant the right way as in a secure big enough majority fir one party.
So much so that it's hard not to form a government.
I feel sinn Fein will struggle to get more in the next election . By the time there is another election , the amount of negative press some deserved some not that they will get will turn off alot of there new voters. The roughly 25% they got now will be still be a hell of an achievement again. Took 100years fir a third party get that much. I can't see FF and fg changing to ever go into government with them. I just feel FF FG will drag this out until people start to forget there grievances with them . They should either announce there going in together or get new election underway as soon as possible.

robtri

dark crystal wrote: »

So...SF get the largest number of first preference votes around the country, gain more seats than FG and equal to FF (one FF seat was automatically awarded, not voted for), yet we're back to FFG??

We're a great little country alright.

unfortunately its called representative democracy,
SF got 23% of first preference vote
ff and FG together got 44%

since lets be honest FF and FG are very much same party these days most votes went to them so they have the right to try to form a government

SF best hope is another vote, blame it on FF and FG and run more candidates in the next run

hardybuck

robtri wrote: »

unfortunately its called representative democracy,
SF got 23% of first preference vote
ff and FG together got 44%

since lets be honest FF and FG are very much same party these days most votes went to them so they have the right to try to form a government

SF best hope is another vote, blame it on FF and FG and run more candidates in the next run

FF and FG aren't as similar as SF and parties like People Before Profit, and yet we can't form a Government with the left.

FG have been at the steering wheel while the country has experienced unprecedented social change via the marriage equality and abortion referenda.

A huge number of FF TDs would have been against both, particularly the repeal of the 8th amendment. They are significantly more conservative which distinguishes them greatly from FG.

I think if we have another election it'll be crystal clear to the electorate what's at stake. Either they'll be emboldened by the prospect of change and SF get stronger or they'll feel that their first vote put manners on FF and FG and they'll return back to them.

friendlyfun

Seems like me it's going to be FF, FG and Greens in a type of government.

Nypd

Mary Butler again has refused to go on with DT to answer questions.
Another victim on his show this morning demanding answers.
She states it’s a matter for the Gardai.
Hiding behind this again.

Gardner

I see Gerry Adams turned up at the parliamentary meeting of SF TD's yesterday. they haven't gone away you know!

hardybuck

Gardner wrote: »

I see Gerry Adams turned up at the parliamentary meeting of SF TD's yesterday. they haven't gone away you know!

I'd say Eoin O'Broin is sick to the teeth of having to explain for dodgy behaviour of his colleagues when he turns up for interviews.

Was a bit cranky this morning when he was asked about the new TD from Clare who a housing charity had to take to court to get her out of a house after she and her husband wouldn't pay their rent of €63 a week for four years.

Harry Palmr

You'd think he'd have enough political acumen by this stage.

spookwoman

hardybuck wrote: »

I'd say Eoin O'Broin is sick to the teeth of having to explain for dodgy behaviour of his colleagues when he turns up for interviews.

Was a bit cranky this morning when he was asked about the new TD from Clare who a housing charity had to take to court to get her out of a house after she and her husband wouldn't pay their rent of €63 a week for four years.

Looks like she may be an anti vaxxer

Gael23

Mary Butler is only making things worse for herself by staying silent

E38E3E38E3EE33

Gael23 wrote: »

Mary Butler is only making things worse for herself by staying silent

Based on her recent spiel, staying quiet might be best for her reputation.

E38E3E38E3EE33

E38E3E38E3EE33 wrote: »

Based on her recent spiel, staying quiet might be best for her reputation.

Yep, she has a severe case of Joe Bidenitis.

The best thing they both can do is say as little as possible. Although at least Joe Biden has old age as an excuse.

Max Powers

hardybuck wrote: »

I'd say Eoin O'Broin is sick to the teeth of having to explain for dodgy behaviour of his colleagues when he turns up for interviews.

Was a bit cranky this morning when he was asked about the new TD from Clare who a housing charity had to take to court to get her out of a house after she and her husband wouldn't pay their rent of €63 a week for four years.

Was her husband the convicted drug dealer too?

hardybuck

Max Powers wrote: »

Was her husband the convicted drug dealer too?

I heard a rumour of that - but didn't see it in the media anywhere?