General Election 2020 - See MOD note in First Post

Max Powers

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Ah the ould chestnut of 'personal responsibility'!

Exactly, would gardner ring for an ambulance at the first sign of a pain chest, could be something you ate, it's not exactly clear, plus to say the thoughts of a possibly ambulance ride to cork is not relevant is clearly not true, this is happening. Also seems to be ignoring the golden hour, longer the correct treatment is delayed, increased risk of permanent damage or death.

hardybuck

jmcc wrote: »

Those points look remarkably similar to the FG propaganda about why the lives of people in the SE are not as valuable as those of others. Have you any ideas of your own on this matter?

You do realise that FG has no TD in Waterford due mainly to Shanahan getting cross-party support on this issue?

Regards...jmcc

Could you point me towards remarkably similar 'FG propaganda'? Or are you referring to what's been mentioned in the news?

I think Waterford's result was reflective of the result nationally. SF had a huge result and the Greens took a seat.

There has only been one occasion (2011) in the last 38 years when FG had more than one seat in Waterford. That one FG seat has been a Deasy seat, and it's the first time since 1977 that there is no Deasy in the Dail. I think this is as much to do with FG not having a seat in 2020 as anything else.

In addition, Paudie Coffey didn't go forward for election, they had two new and pretty mediocre candidates, and they seemed to have poor vote management. I think the Greens really took their seat based upon their surge nationally, Grace O'Sullivan doing well in the European elections, and Tramore getting behind their candidates.

Shanahan took Halligan's seat, partly due to Halligan retiring, but largely down to the 24/7 issue.

hardybuck

BBM77 wrote: »

Think you are the one missing the point. So people in Waterford city and surrounding area can be left without 24hr cover in a recession. Whereas elsewhere can keep it or can get to somewhere that does in time. I don’t pay tax to be treated differently. Can yourself and Gardner explain why there is one rule for us and different rules for the rest? To me this kind of unfairness is unacceptable.

I'm not trying to explain anything. I'm very open minded to the suggestion that better outcomes could be achieved by having the facility.

I was pointing out that there is a difference between lives lost by not having it, and better outcomes that could be achieved by having the facility. Those are different things.

dzilla

J3sus Mary Butler.

AdMMM

dzilla wrote: »

J3sus Mary Butler.

What now?

deisemum

AdMMM wrote: »

What now?

Front page of this week's Munster Express she's claiming she's been victimised over Kenneally for political reasons. Bloody insulting to victims.

E38E3E38E3EE33

Link here

jmcc

hardybuck wrote: »

Could you point me towards remarkably similar 'FG propaganda'? Or are you referring to what's been mentioned in the news?

The report created to show that the SE did not need the second cath lab and the rest of the propaganda that followed.

I think Waterford's result was reflective of the result nationally. SF had a huge result and the Greens took a seat.

No. The Waterford result was quite different. With Halligan not running, some of the Halligan vote would have shifted to SF.

There has only been one occasion (2011) in the last 38 years when FG had more than one seat in Waterford. That one FG seat has been a Deasy seat, and it's the first time since 1977 that there is no Deasy in the Dail. I think this is as much to do with FG not having a seat in 2020 as anything else.

University of Wikipedia? Were you in Waterford for the election campaign and the election? FG had a quota but fratricide ensured that the Green candidate, who would otherwise not have had a chance at a seat, got elected.

In addition, Paudie Coffey didn't go forward for election, they had two new and pretty mediocre candidates, and they seemed to have poor vote management. I think the Greens really took their seat based upon their surge nationally, Grace O'Sullivan doing well in the European elections, and Tramore getting behind their candidates.

Again, you seemed to have missed what happened in the Local Elections. Shanahan topped the poll in Waterford East. That's a constituency where FG had held seats for years. Think that there even was a Green elected in the constituency. When that kind of constituency turned against FG, FG had big problems ahead for the GE. The Greens became an acceptable "None of the above" choice for voters and that helped. But there were also younger voters who voted Green (and SF).

Shanahan took Halligan's seat, partly due to Halligan retiring, but largely down to the 24/7 issue.

Again, your assumption is wrong. Halligan's vote was a Left wing vote. Shanahan's vote is a cross-party vote and as can be seen from his transfers in the LEs, he is very far from being a Left wing candidate like Halligan. (Shanahan's transfers in the LE transferred most to FF. FG were, I think, obliterated in Waterford East.) There were no demographics on the LE results but the cardiac care issue is one that could split an electorate along age demographics because older voters would be more likely to vote for the cardiac care candidate(s).

Regards...jmcc

hardybuck

jmcc I think you're spoiling for a row, but I'll indulge you nonetheless.

Are you referring to the Herity Report, which said that a second Cath Lab wasn't justified? As far as I'm aware Simon Harris ignored that report, and the strong advice of Civil Servants, to approve a second cath lab - but perhaps you've heard different.

I indeed was in Waterford and cast my vote here. Were you?

You mentioned Wikipedia there, you should probably have checked it before making your statement about Waterford City East. If you did you'd have seen that FG only ever had 1-2 councillors in that area for the last 25 years at least - and those topping the polls have been on the left and independents. What happened in 2019 was similar to what happened at the GE - the only change in the composition was one less FG and one additional Green. You also had experienced candidates replaced by new ones nobody had heard of - FG had been weakening for a long time in the area.

Some of Halligan's vote would certainly have transferred to Cullinane, particularly as some of his former canvassers transferred across. But one Independent in Waterford retired and another replaced him at the end of the day.

Stopitwillya

DLS_75 wrote: »

Who will he co-opt into his council seat? Mary Roche endorsed him, maybe she’ll look for her seat back again. Although probably doubtful because didn’t she get a golden handshake when she left? Around 60k?

And now she is back on the council.

spookwoman

Stopitwillya wrote: »

And now she is back on the council.

*ck sake. No wonder this country is the way it is, cronyism to the highest and keeping their own lot p*ssing in the same post.

Nypd

deisemum wrote: »

Front page of this week's Munster Express she's claiming she's been victimised over Kenneally for political reasons. Bloody insulting to victims.

How the hell is she a victim.
The absolute cheek of this woman !!
The FF spin machine is not doing a very good job of resurrecting the TD.
Surely her days are numbered.

friendlyfun

hardybuck wrote: »

jmcc I think you're spoiling for a row, but I'll indulge you nonetheless.

Are you referring to the Herity Report, which said that a second Cath Lab wasn't justified? As far as I'm aware Simon Harris ignored that report, and the strong advice of Civil Servants, to approve a second cath lab - but perhaps you've heard different.

I indeed was in Waterford and cast my vote here. Were you?

You mentioned Wikipedia there, you should probably have checked it before making your statement about Waterford City East. If you did you'd have seen that FG only ever had 1-2 councillors in that area for the last 25 years at least - and those topping the polls have been on the left and independents. What happened in 2019 was similar to what happened at the GE - the only change in the composition was one less FG and one additional Green. You also had experienced candidates replaced by new ones nobody had heard of - FG had been weakening for a long time in the area.

Some of Halligan's vote would certainly have transferred to Cullinane, particularly as some of his former canvassers transferred across. But one Independent in Waterford retired and another replaced him at the end of the day.

I seriously do not hope you're a Waterford man that agrees with the Herrity report.

Quigs Snr

Nypd wrote: »

How the hell is she a victim.
The absolute cheek of this woman !!
The FF spin machine is not doing a very good job of resurrecting the TD.
Surely her days are numbered.

She stands against child abuse by having the guy who used high office to cover up one of Waterfords most notorious child abuse cases in living memory, represent her on the doorsteps two elections in a row. He was director of elections for her AFTER it was known that he did not report his cousin to the police (because he did not think he would re-offend). I think we are into Gold medal contention at the BS Olympic event at this stage.

... but wait there's more... a sophisticated hacking crew are out to get her.. by er.. swiping their phone screen to screengrab her trolling a victim of said child abuse on Facebook... on a fake page that is totally her real page and always has been and for which the "Garda investigation" will (very quietly) never find any other owner for. Sophisticated indeed.

If we are expected to make these record breaking leaps of the imagination to support the drivel on the front page of the Munster this week, then how can anyone with a brain react to it ? I think Mary summed it up best herself on her now famous Facebook post when she said " ".

And it's that " " that I have the real problem with. Far more than Brendan Kenneally. That triumphalism. That absolute scumbag response to someone else's pain. The worst pieces of trash on this planet would probably blush at that sort of behaviour. And the attempt to spin her way out of that " " is insulting. She should have just said that she is a spanner with computers, new Facebook emoji stuff, looking at a post, that thing came up by accident (it totally didn't), sorry etc... the story would already be dead. Call me Mary, because it sounds like you need new spin doctors. The ones you already have seem to be defective.

Did she even quit the office that she was renting out from Waterfords most prolific known Paedo ? https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/politics/fianna-fail-bill-kenneally-waterford-11231434

Odious. Cynical. Trash. A pound shop imitation of a politician. A living, breathing symbol of the standard that Fianna Fail has slumped to. It takes something special to make Mr "up the ra" look like Barrack Obama, but every time she is in the paper "explaining / lying" that is what she is doing.

DLS_75

She said she’s never met Billy, not brendan

Teebor15

Quigs Snr wrote: »

So, she has been meeting people in the constituency all the time.. attends FF events etc.... but has never met Brendan Kenneally. A stalwart of the party locally. Former TD. Who has been canvassing for me her for two elections in a row. That is some Olympic standard BS right there. Even Donald Trumps poor press officer would blush at trying to sell that one to the .

Bill Kenneally!..she said she never met Bill Kenneally..not Brendan!

Its interesting she choose the local print Media where she can pretty much put out a carefully crafted statement put together with the FF spin machine rather than local radio where she would have awkward questions put to her!

Rather than hold her hands up and admit she made a mistake with the whole Kenneally canvassing affair, she went on the defence and played the victim. This along with her dismal performance as a TD is what has turned many against her. It's nothing personal, I'm sure she is nice lady but the sooner we see the back of her professionally the better.

E38E3E38E3EE33

The sophisticated and highly co-ordinated smear campaign seems to have died down. Thankfully only one smiley face was posted, I can't imagine what other mayhem could be on the horizon.

Quigs Snr

Teebor15 wrote: »

Bill Kenneally!..she said she never met Bill Kenneally..not Brendan!

Its interesting she choose the local print Media where she can pretty much put out a carefully crafted statement put together with the FF spin machine rather than local radio where she would have awkward questions put to her!

Rather than hold her hands up and admit she made a mistake with the whole Kenneally canvassing affair, she went on the defence and played the victim. This along with her dismal performance as a TD is what has turned many against her. It's nothing personal, I'm sure she is nice lady but the sooner we see the back of her professionally the better.

It would be interesting to see how she might hold up to some live questioning on an impartial radio or TV slot.

Teebor15

Quigs Snr wrote: »

It would be interesting to see how she might hold up to some live questioning on an impartial radio or TV slot.

Very poorly I'd imagine. She struggles when being questioned on normal run of the mill policy questions never mind a bit of a scandal! Compare her to Cullinane. Both fecked up. Cullinane was on national media the same day and local radio the following morning and faced up to it. Mary denied everything and ran for the hills! I wonder will ever hear the findings of the Gardai investigation!

Nypd

Quigs Snr wrote: »

It would be interesting to see how she might hold up to some live questioning on an impartial radio or TV slot.

The word implode comes to mind.

jmcc

hardybuck wrote: »

Are you referring to the Herity Report, which said that a second Cath Lab wasn't justified? As far as I'm aware Simon Harris ignored that report, and the strong advice of Civil Servants, to approve a second cath lab - but perhaps you've heard different.

Harris was under political pressure due to Halligan's support for the government but the second cath lab has not happened yet. Harris was probably one of the worst ministers for health and there's a lot of competition.

I indeed was in Waterford and cast my vote here. Were you?

Voted for many of the candidates. So did you vote for FG?

You mentioned Wikipedia there, you should probably have checked it before making your statement about Waterford City East. If you did you'd have seen that FG only ever had 1-2 councillors in that area for the last 25 years at least - and those topping the polls have been on the left and independents.

Waterford East has always had a rather strong FF/FG component. Davy Daniels (Independent) has generally done quite well. Shanahan was elected ahead of him in the LEs and that should have indicated how emotive a subject the second cath lab was the for the LEs and the GE. Jack Walsh (RIP) was to be the Labour candidate in the LEs.

What happened in 2019 was similar to what happened at the GE - the only change in the composition was one less FG and one additional Green. You also had experienced candidates replaced by new ones nobody had heard of - FG had been weakening for a long time in the area.

The decline in FG support in Waterford East is linked to the betrayal of Waterford over the cath lab and other things.

Some of Halligan's vote would certainly have transferred to Cullinane, particularly as some of his former canvassers transferred across. But one Independent in Waterford retired and another replaced him at the end of the day.

Independents are not a political party where one person replaces another and both share the same politics. Shanahan is quite a different candidate politically to Halligan. Halligan's support was more left of centre. Shanahan's support has elements of that but it also includes support from voters that would traditionally have been FF and FG voters. He managed to get votes from all over the political spectrum and in a city like Waterford, that is quite unusual. If anything, Shanahan took Deasy's seat.

Regards...jmcc

hardybuck

jmcc wrote: »

Harris was under political pressure due to Halligan's support for the government but the second cath lab has not happened yet. Harris was probably one of the worst ministers for health and there's a lot of competition.

Voted for many of the candidates. So did you vote for FG?

Waterford East has always had a rather strong FF/FG component. Davy Daniels (Independent) has generally done quite well. Shanahan was elected ahead of him in the LEs and that should have indicated how emotive a subject the second cath lab was the for the LEs and the GE. Jack Walsh (RIP) was to be the Labour candidate in the LEs.

The decline in FG support in Waterford East is linked to the betrayal of Waterford over the cath lab and other things.

Independents are not a political party where one person replaces another and both share the same politics. Shanahan is quite a different candidate politically to Halligan. Halligan's support was more left of centre. Shanahan's support has elements of that but it also includes support from voters that would traditionally have been FF and FG voters. He managed to get votes from all over the political spectrum and in a city like Waterford, that is quite unusual. If anything, Shanahan took Deasy's seat.

Regards...jmcc

FG didn't get my first preference. Who got yours?

You've been rumbled on the local election point you tried to make, but fair play for digging your heels in.

Shanahan is a spoofer. The 24/7 thing is a catchy slogan that he's used for personal gain. He'll do absolutely feck all to impact change in that area, and he'll have to find a new campaign ahead of the next election.

jmcc

hardybuck wrote: »

FG didn't get my first preference. Who got yours?

Shanahan. I want him to get the second cath lab for Waterford. So which candidate got your first preference vote and did he or she get elected?

You've been rumbled on the local election point you tried to make, but fair play for digging your heels in.

No. There is a strong FF/FG component in the Waterford East constituency and anyone from Waterford will explain that to you.

Shanahan is a spoofer. The 24/7 thing is a catchy slogan that he's used for personal gain.

It is called marketing. Apparently he has some experience in the field and has, according to the debates, experience of political lobbying at EU level.

He'll do absolutely feck all to impact change in that area, and he'll have to find a new campaign ahead of the next election.

You seem certain of that. If the next GE is to be within a few months, the second cath lab will probably not be delivered before then. The requirement still stands. Apparently he has joined a technical group so that will ensure that he will be able to bring up the matter in the Dail.

Regards...jmcc

hardybuck

jmcc wrote: »

Shanahan. I want him to get the second cath lab for Waterford. So which candidate got your first preference vote and did he or she get elected?

No. There is a strong FF/FG component in the Waterford East constituency and anyone from Waterford will explain that to you.

It is called marketing. Apparently he has some experience in the field and has, according to the debates, experience of political lobbying at EU level.

You seem certain of that. If the next GE is to be within a few months, the second cath lab will probably not be delivered before then. The requirement still stands. Apparently he has joined a technical group so that will ensure that he will be able to bring up the matter in the Dail.

Regards...jmcc

You were rumbled on the FG point because you made an inaccurate statement and then tried subsequently change your point. Come on lad.

I fully expect Shanahan to get splinters in his arse up on the back benches but who knows - who'd have thought Halligan could become a Minister of State?

I personally think a GE will not occur in the next few months, but Waterford would probably vote the same again. Maybe SF would get two seats if they find someone suitable to join the ticket.

I gave O'Cathasaigh my first preference.

jmcc

hardybuck wrote: »

You were rumbled on the FG point because you made an inaccurate statement and then tried subsequently change your point. Come on lad.

Which statement was inaccurate? That Shanahan was elected on votes from across the political spectrum? That's supported by the subsequent transfers in the LEs and the GE. That Waterford East has a strong FF/FG element. If you don't know that then you don't know much about Waterford.

I fully expect Shanahan to get splinters in his arse up on the back benches but who knows - who'd have thought Halligan could become a Minister of State?

In a situation where the votes of Independents were required to stabilise a minority government, it was rather obvious that these votes would be more valuable as a result. That was the logical outcome of the 2016 GE. Labour had been obliterated and FG had also lost a significant number of seats. The current party positions are even worse than 2016 due to SF having the same number of seats as FF (due to the CC) and FG having had one of its worst ever elections. It was obvious in December 2019 that FG was in trouble but the effort by the neo-Unionist wing of FG under Charlie Flanagan to commemorate the RIC/Black and Tans/Auxillaries really caused serious problems for FG.

I personally think a GE will not occur in the next few months, but Waterford would probably vote the same again. Maybe SF would get two seats if they find someone suitable to join the ticket.

If there is a GE in the next few months, it is likely that a better electoral strategy (single candidate) from FG might take the last seat and O'Cathasaigh/Greens will lose it. If FG had run a single candidate, it would have taken the last seat in the GE but arguably, SF running two candidates could have resulted in SF taking the last seat.

I gave O'Cathasaigh my first preference.

Did you expect him to win a seat and to whom did your second preference go?

Regards...jmcc

hardybuck

jmcc wrote: »

Which statement was inaccurate? That Shanahan was elected on votes from across the political spectrum? That's supported by the subsequent transfers in the LEs and the GE. That Waterford East has a strong FF/FG element. If you don't know that then you don't know much about Waterford.

In a situation where the votes of Independents were required to stabilise a minority government, it was rather obvious that these votes would be more valuable as a result. That was the logical outcome of the 2016 GE. Labour had been obliterated and FG had also lost a significant number of seats. The current party positions are even worse than 2016 due to SF having the same number of seats as FF (due to the CC) and FG having had one of its worst ever elections. It was obvious in December 2019 that FG was in trouble but the effort by the neo-Unionist wing of FG under Charlie Flanagan to commemorate the RIC/Black and Tans/Auxillaries really caused serious problems for FG.

If there is a GE in the next few months, it is likely that a better electoral strategy (single candidate) from FG might take the last seat and O'Cathasaigh/Greens will lose it. If FG had run a single candidate, it would have taken the last seat in the GE but arguably, SF running two candidates could have resulted in SF taking the last seat.

Did you expect him to win a seat and who did your second preference go to?

Regards...jmcc

You initially argued that Waterford East was an area that turned against FG, and when that kind of constituency did that it indicated big ahead of the election. When it was put to you that that FG wasn't really strong in that area for a long time you switched the narrative to FG/FF. If you can't remember that you must be losing track of your argument.

I don't see another GE in the next few months, but O'Cathasaigh was about a thousand first preference votes behind Shanahan and also finished about a thousand votes behind him.

That's extremely tight, and who knows what would happen next time, particularly in light of how certain candidates have disgraced themselves in recent weeks. I think transfers in many cases went more geographically than by party than was seen in other constituencies.

For example Shanahan got nearly no transfers from Geoghegan but Butler did. Not much of Cullinane's surplus went beyond the city and Tramore, but O'Cathasaigh got a massive boost from Dunphy's exit. That both parties had very different manifestos didn't seem to matter.

jmcc

hardybuck wrote: »

You initially argued that Waterford East was an area that turned against FG, and when that kind of constituency did that it indicated big ahead of the election.

It did indicate trouble ahead for FG and this kind of pattern wasn't limited to Waterford. The focus in the media (national) was, as was to be expected, about how badly SF had done in the Locals. But journalists don't generally understand statistics and shifting voting trends.

The cath lab has forced a lot of people to reconsider their support for FG. The other factor was the Dublinicisation of FG under Varadkar and his gang of media friendly morons. The FG grassroots wanted Coveney as the leader of FG but it was the FG parliamentary party that installed Varadkar. If Coveney had been leading FG, the 2020 GE would not have been quite so bad for FG.

When it was put to you that that FG wasn't really strong in that area for a long time you switched the narrative to FG/FF.

FG has been quite strong in the area and continued to be quite strong. FF is also strong in the constituency. That could easily have been seen in the way that Adam Wyse was effectively co-opted to replace is late father. Labour also had a councillor member in the constituency. The Greens had Brendan McCann as a councillor for a while but I think that it lost the seat due to a student union politics approach.

For older FF/FG voters and supporters, the cath lab situation is important and Ardkeen is in the Waterford East constituency. It is a constant reminder of people who died because they didn't have a heart attack during business hours. That translates to votes even if people had previously been supporters of other parties.

Contrary to what opinion polls and political journalists would have one believe, the floating vote decides General Elections rather than true believer type party members. If enough floating voters change their votes, then expected results don't happen.

I don't see another GE in the next few months, but O'Cathasaigh was about a thousand first preference votes behind Shanahan and also finished about a thousand votes behind him.

The Greens are a known quantity in Waterford. Shanahan is not. The Greens have a party infrastructure whereas Shanahan does not. FG could have got the last seat ahead of O'Cathasaigh but they had split the vote over two candidates. The Greens had also benefited from a "None of the above" vote that had previously gone to Labour before it went Austerity crazy in 2011.

The other factor that may work in favour of SF and the Greens if there is another GE in the next few months is that there is a new voter registrar in effect. The one used for the last GE had excluded a lot of new voters.

That's extremely tight, and who knows what would happen next time, particularly in light of how certain candidates have disgraced themselves in recent weeks. I think transfers in many cases went more geographically than by party than was seen in other constituencies.

For example Shanahan got nearly no transfers from Geoghegan but Butler did. Not much of Cullinane's surplus went beyond the city and Tramore, but O'Cathasaigh got a massive boost from Dunphy's exit. That both parties had very different manifestos didn't seem to matter.

Waterford is a city. Unlike Galway or some other places, it is a real city that has grown organically and is not a patchwork of villages made into a city by a committee. This means that people are more likely to vote for a person rather than a party. There is also an element of the "None of the above" vote playing out in Dunphy's transfers. The Green Party as a brand is quite good in that respect.

Regards...jmcc

hardybuck

So just to round up, you think the results of the Waterford City East Ward in the local election was a telling factor for FG, where they lost one councillor, but don't think it'd anything to do with it being the first time a Deasy didn't run for 40 odd years. Interesting take on things.

Transfers to Dunphy weren't none of the above either IMO. It was working class SF vote moving to another party who market towards the same audience.

The point you make about Waterford City actually applies to the whole county, as people in the west of the county appear to have behaved in the exact same way.

Harry Palmr

The two Mary's are both being covered on Deise Today between now and midday.

edit Mary Butler is on now.

https://www.wlrfm.com/player/

hardybuck

Harry Palmr wrote: »

The two Mary's are both being covered on Deise Today between now and midday.

edit Mary Butler is on now.

https://www.wlrfm.com/player/

Is Mary Butler getting a grilling or what's her explanation for returning?