General Election 2020 - See MOD note in First Post

Nypd

jmcc wrote: »

That was a disaster of an interview. If there's another GE in the next few months, she may well lose her seat over this.

Regards...jmcc

And deservedly so, mumbled and muttered her way through it.
Wonder if this is the last we will hear of this or is there more to come.
She seems to be pointing the finger stating the attack was political

jmcc

Nypd wrote: »

And deservedly so, mumbled and muttered her way through it.
Wonder if this is the last we will hear of this or is there more to come.
She seems to be pointing the finger stating the attack was political

That last part where she tried to blame political opponents for spreading all this on Social Media was a big mistake. She should have just appeared contrite. Because it was at the end of the interview, this is what people are going to remember: "Butler tries to blame SF and others". She needed to get the message across that she was sorry for what happened and that she was not responsible. The FF PR people are going to be tearing their hair out over this interview.

Regards...jmcc

Nypd

jmcc wrote: »

That last part where she tried to blame political opponents for spreading all this on Social Media was a big mistake. She should have just appeared contrite. Because it was at the end of the interview, this is what people are going to remember: "Butler tries to blame SF and others". She needed to get the message across that she was sorry for what happened and that she was not responsible. The FF PR people are going to be tearing their hair out over this interview.

Regards...jmcc

Agreed was listening and was thinking that she had managed to slip her way out of it and then tripped herself up.

dzilla

Listening to the Mary Butler interview, its just too late, she put her head in the sand and hoped that this would go away and it did not. If she did today's interview last week or the week before that would have been better damage limitation. Regarding the screenshot on Facebook, I have doubt this was here or a member of here team (possibly by accident) but now the Gardai are involved? If the Gardai find out this is the case and she was using them to deflect and make this look like an elaborate hacking scandal she needs to be called to task on this as its an absolute waste of Garda time.

AdMMM

jmcc wrote: »

That was a disaster of an interview. If there's another GE in the next few months, she may well lose her seat over this.

Regards...jmcc

She'll be fine. The people who voted for her were FF supporters and they'll only run the one candidate after Eddie Mulligan's showing. They aren't "borrowed" votes.

IsosKramer

jmcc wrote: »

Galway is merely a county town with villages tacked on to make it a city. That's the reality. There are even reports on developments being targeted for inclusion by the city council. (Newspaper report from 2010.). That makes its political dynamics different from a city like Waterford. Had Waterford tried the same thing, Dunmore, Passage, Tramore and much of the Waterford hinterland in South Kilkenny would be part of a much larger Waterford metropolitan area.

Because Waterford is a city, the population is more concentrated in a smaller geographical region. The population per square kilometre for Waterford county is 62.7. The Galway county population density is only 42. Because of the concentration of the Waterford population, voters are just as likely to vote for a person rather than party. That creates transfer patterns that can surprise people. (The PBP->Green transfers.)

Regards...jmcc

I don't want to be unkind but you either didn't understand my post or, as I predicted, you cannot answer the question.
I also tried to explain that Galway City is, by any measure, much bigger than Waterford. I also explained that Galway City's population is actually suppressed by the inability of first-timers to afford a house in an expensive, thriving city.
I pointed out that they are forced to move out to satellite locations like Oranmore, etc, which , by the say, are much near to Galway than Tramore is to Waterford.These locations are NOT part of Galway city's population in the 2016 census.
I also pointed out that, possibly, the best yardstick is numbers employed in the various cities as per the 2016 census. Galway City has double the number for Waterford.
Drogheda is Waterford's rival, not a city almost double its size.

Bards

Waterford has been stifled since the foundation of the Republic at every opportunity to prevent it from growing... Every positive report has not been acted upon or has been fudged... Waterford has the only 3rd level institute in the state that was downgraded... I.E The Teacher Training College which is now De La Salle college

As the nearest City to mainland Europe we should be the most prosperous City in Ireland outside Dublin... But dirty politics over the years has made sure we are kept in our place.

vriesmays

St John's College used to teach philosophy/theology and should have been a university with all its land. Now it's a homeless shelter.

Max Powers

vriesmays wrote: »

St John's College used to teach philosophy/theology and should have been a university with all its land. Now it's a homeless shelter.

No it ain't.it's respond housing.

debok

vriesmays wrote: »

St John's College used to teach philosophy/theology and should have been a university with all its land. Now it's a homeless shelter.

No it's not .

Gael23

AdMMM wrote: »

She'll be fine. The people who voted for her were FF supporters and they'll only run the one candidate after Eddie Mulligan's showing. They aren't "borrowed" votes.

You are most likely fully correct here.

jmcc

IsosKramer wrote: »

I don't want to be unkind but you either didn't understand my post or, as I predicted, you cannot answer the question.

It is a point about voter dynamics and how they affect elections rather than which city is largest. With a strong, highly concentrated electorate, people may be more likely to vote for personalities than party policies. As the population in Waterford city is highly concentrated and the fact that it is part of a single constituency (unlike Galway which has multiple constituencies), that floating vote can move en masse between candidates and across party lines. This is why something like a PBP to Green transfer pattern can happen despite the parties being quite different in terms of politics. It also means that single issue candidates like Shanahan can get have an easier time getting elected where the electorate is concentrated because campaigning is somewhat easier.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc

AdMMM wrote: »

She'll be fine. The people who voted for her were FF supporters and they'll only run the one candidate after Eddie Mulligan's showing. They aren't "borrowed" votes.

They may be FF votes more than Butler votes. The 2016 result for Butler was not that surprising. FF ran a single candidate. It might be a good strategy for both FF and FG to just run a single candidate each if there's a new GE. That way both would be well ahead on first preferences. O'Cathasaigh/Greens was very lucky that FG screwed up badly and basically gave him the seat. With STV, it is often more important when transfers happen than how they happen, especially with the last seat. Cummins could, if FG had run a single candidate, have got a seat as FG had 16.52% on first preferences (8,881 and the quota was 10,752). Theoretically, that would have left a single FG candidate needing 1,871 transfers and would have put him ahead of Butler, Shanahan and O'Cathasaigh. FG had a chance to change its candidate/vote management strategy once the negative trends started appearing in the opinion polls but it stuck with what it thought would work despite opinion polls uniformly indicating that it was in trouble. This is an important point. Different pollsters use different methods of polling (phone, face to face, online). There will be variations due to the size of the sample and the methodology but when all polls start showing the same results, then parties had better take notice. The problem was that FF and FG did not believe that SF was on a roll and neither did SF to some extent. But the main shift for SF seems to have happened during the campaign and after nominations had closed. SF could not have added extra candidates so they underperformed.

Regards...jmcc

Gael23

jmcc wrote: »

They may be FF votes more than Butler votes. The 2016 result for Butler was not that surprising. FF ran a single candidate. It might be a good strategy for both FF and FG to just run a single candidate each if there's a new GE. That way both would be well ahead on first preferences. O'Cathasaigh/Greens was very lucky that FG screwed up badly and basically gave him the seat. With STV, it is often more important when transfers happen than how they happen, especially with the last seat. Cummins could, if FG had run a single candidate, have got a seat as FG had 16.52% on first preferences (8,881 and the quota was 10,752). Theoretically, that would have left a single FG candidate needing 1,871 transfers and would have put him ahead of Butler, Shanahan and O'Cathasaigh. FG had a chance to change its candidate/vote management strategy once the negative trends started appearing in the opinion polls but it stuck with what it thought would work despite opinion polls uniformly indicating that it was in trouble. This is an important point. Different pollsters use different methods of polling (phone, face to face, online). There will be variations due to the size of the sample and the methodology but when all polls start showing the same results, then parties had better take notice. The problem was that FF and FG did not believe that SF was on a roll and neither did SF to some extent. But the main shift for SF seems to have happened during the campaign and after nominations had closed. SF could not have added extra candidates so they underperformed.

Regards...jmcc

I couldn’t agree with you more, but with the west county and city divide it’s unlikely that will be allowed happen

vriesmays

Max Powers wrote: »

No it ain't.it's respond housing.

That's OK then, sure who needs a college teaching ethics and religion in Waterford when there can be another respond.

Wanderer78

vriesmays wrote: »

That's OK then, sure who needs a college teaching ethics and religion in Waterford when there can be another respond.

is the catholic church truly ethical?

Max Powers

vriesmays wrote: »

That's OK then, sure who needs a college teaching ethics and religion in Waterford when there can be another respond.

What an idiotic response

Aquos76

I see John Cummins has been selected by FG to contest the Seanad Election

hardybuck

Aquos76 wrote: »

I see John Cummins has been selected by FG to contest the Seanad Election

Predictable. Paudie Coffey presumably not going forward again, and Maurice is a former leader of the Seanad.

DLS_75

He still needs other councillors to vote for him and I wouldn’t think he’s the most popular councillor around

hardybuck

DLS_75 wrote: »

He still needs other councillors to vote for him and I wouldn’t think he’s the most popular councillor around

How does it work?

Jamie2k9

I see David C posing with striking staff at hospital.....interesting to see how SF will cope because in Government ministers wouldn't do this.

Wanderer78

Jamie2k9 wrote:

I see David C posing with striking staff at hospital.....interesting to see how SF will cope because in Government ministers wouldn't do this.

SF won't be in government anytime soon

debok

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

I see David C posing with striking staff at hospital.....interesting to see how SF will cope because in Government ministers wouldn't do this.

He's not in government

friendlyfun

Wonder are we gonna have another election? What do people think?

vriesmays

We're gonna have another recession.

jmcc

friendlyfun wrote: »

Wonder are we gonna have another election? What do people think?

I think that FG (minus Varadkar as leader) might realise that it could regain or gain some seats in a new GE (perhaps at FF's expense) but will use this as leverage in negotations coalition with FF. We'll probably know in a few days (or months).

Regards...jmcc

Royal Legend

Jamie2k9 wrote: »

I see David C posing with striking staff at hospital.....interesting to see how SF will cope because in Government ministers wouldn't do this.

A bit of a better response than from our former junior minister and former workers party member who crossed the picket twice on Wednesday. easy knowing he's not reliant on anyone voting for him anymore

Max Powers

Royal Legend wrote: »

A bit of a better response than from our former junior minister and former workers party member who crossed the picket twice on Wednesday. easy knowing he's not reliant on anyone voting for him anymore

That's BS I'd say anyway. If you need to go to the hospital, you go in, that is not crossing a picket line.

Royal Legend

Max Powers wrote: »

That's BS I'd say anyway. If you need to go to the hospital, you go in, that is not crossing a picket line.

This is an ex-workers party member, crossing a picket line without stopping and asking how things are going, something that he did rectify on Friday by the way.
a person in his position should have known better, you would not expect the general public to stop and ask, that's a different scenario altogether.

The Porters and Kitchen staff joined the action yesterday, but the HSE has taken out a high court injunction against them joining the picket with the threat of being sacked, the Porters and Kitchen staff are meeting on Monday to vote on their next action.
Momentum have brought in 60 staff from outside and are putting them up in a local hotel, they are also taking on other staff with no Garda vetting whatsoever.
Someone seriously needs to look into how Momentum got the contract in the first place, something that is been questioned and been investigated into in the background.
There is someone very senior and high up in the HSE in Waterford that has some serious questions to answer.