Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Election Thread - Dublin West - SEE MOD NOTE IN POST 1

Options
1…810121314

Comments

  • Options
    #272
    Hurrache
    Registered Users Posts: 10,228 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    Fingers crossed for O'Gorman anyway. 6th attempt for Donnelly.


  • Options
    #273
    StoptheClocks
    Registered Users Posts: 215 ✭✭StoptheClocks


    You can see the first count of votes here

    https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/results/#/national/dublin-west

    It's safe to say that no one predicted Donnelly topping the vote. The boards poll was way off.


  • Options
    #274
    ArmaniJeanss
    Registered Users Posts: 13,418 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    The big sets of transferable votes are Donnellys surplus of 3.7K, then roughly 1000 from the Soc Dems, 1200 from Aontu, 2000 from FG2 and 2400 from Labour.

    ('m going to assume that Leo is over the line by the time FG2 votes are spread, so her transfers will bypass Leo)

    Ruth v Roderic in transfers.
    I'd expect RC to do better from Donnelly.
    Also think she will do better from Aontu but by a smaller margin.
    But RoG will surely do better from Soc Dems, FG2 and Labour.

    I'd definitely prefer to be in RoG's position with a 600 lead now.


  • Options
    #275
    StoptheClocks
    Registered Users Posts: 215 ✭✭StoptheClocks


    An even bigger surprise than Donnelly topping the poll is Peter Casey getting 495.
    Did he even step foot in the constituency during the campaign? Who is voting for him? Are they spoiling their vote?


  • Options
    #276
    Polar101
    Registered Users Posts: 3,847 ✭✭✭Polar101


    Coppinger said on TV she'll benefit hugely from the Donnelly transfers. Hopefully she isn't right, but I think she might be. There was a similar situation in the local elections, and that one went to the Greens.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #277
    LorelaiG
    Registered Users Posts: 699 ✭✭✭LorelaiG


    StoptheClocks wrote: »
    An even bigger surprise than Donnelly topping the poll is Peter Casey getting 495.
    Did he even step foot in the constituency during the campaign? Who is voting for him? Are they spoiling their vote?

    A big crowd from that house the Irish first gang were voting him number 1 as far as I know.


  • Options
    #278
    Zaph
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 47,305 ✭✭✭✭Zaph


    StoptheClocks wrote: »
    An even bigger surprise than Donnelly topping the poll is Peter Casey getting 495.
    Did he even step foot in the constituency during the campaign? Who is voting for him? Are they spoiling their vote?

    It's almost embarrassing to be living somewhere where nearly 500 people would vote for that dickhead.


  • Options
    #279
    KGLady
    Registered Users Posts: 338 ✭✭KGLady


    Count 2 currently being announced, Donnelly surplus about to shake things up... Joe.ie saying has Leo missed out on Count 2 :eek:

    https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1226576088463216641

    Update:

    https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1226577462064226304?s=20

    Wow less transfers than Racist Casey


  • Options
    #280
    Gaspode
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Music Moderators, Regional East Moderators, Regional Midlands Moderators, Regional Midwest Moderators, Regional Abroad Moderators, Regional North Mods, Regional West Moderators, Regional South East Moderators, Regional North East Moderators, Regional North West Moderators, Regional South Moderators Posts: 8,032 CMod ✭✭✭✭Gaspode


    Normally you'd be sanctioned for name-calling but since it's Casey.....


  • Options
    #281
    KGLady
    Registered Users Posts: 338 ✭✭KGLady


    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1n9wfF6dKeL9QlwKaEWb5Ds_VAY577HBjmsso0ObMj5A/htmlview

    So, Coppinger did pick up the bulk of the transfers after all. Will be gutted if O'Gorman ends up missing out yet again.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #282
    Zaph
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 47,305 ✭✭✭✭Zaph


    Gaspode wrote: »
    Normally you'd be sanctioned for name-calling but since it's Casey.....

    Yeah, sorry about that, although at least I didn't call him what I was originally thinking of. :pac:


  • Options
    #283
    Hurrache
    Registered Users Posts: 10,228 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    Polar101 wrote: »
    Coppinger said on TV she'll benefit hugely from the Donnelly transfers. Hopefully she isn't right, but I think she might be. There was a similar situation in the local elections, and that one went to the Greens.

    ****, unfortunately she seems to be, she put about 1,000 votes into O'Gorman.


  • Options
    #284
    thomasj
    Registered Users Posts: 4,806 ✭✭✭thomasj


    That's true but a few big transfers to come with Burton and Currie and if Varadkar and Chambers is elected before then , then O'Gorman stands a good chance.


  • Options
    #285
    Hurrache
    Registered Users Posts: 10,228 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    Is there another constituency like this in terms of socioeconomic and political extremes?


  • Options
    #286
    Zaph
    Registered Users, Subscribers Posts: 47,305 ✭✭✭✭Zaph


    thomasj wrote: »
    That's true but a few big transfers to come with Burton and Currie and if Varadkar and Chambers is elected before then , then O'Gorman stands a good chance.

    I think Roderic will benefit most from those transfers, but if Leo and Chambers just about make it across the line there won't be much to distribute.


  • Options
    #287
    thomasj
    Registered Users Posts: 4,806 ✭✭✭thomasj


    Zaph wrote: »
    I think Roderic will benefit most from those transfers, but if Leo and Chambers just about make it across the line there won't be much to distribute.

    Oh yeah but if they're elected by the time Burton's and/or Curries votes are to be distributed then there should be more transfers there for O'Gorman hopefully

    I'd say Varadkar will be elected on this count.


  • Options
    #288
    KGLady
    Registered Users Posts: 338 ✭✭KGLady


    Hurrache wrote: »
    Is there another constituency like this in terms of socioeconomic and political extremes?

    Interesting question, and one I'm gonna start trying to figure out for myself now! The RTE overview on their constituency results page paints it quite starkly:
    Lie of the land:
    Dublin West is effectively three constituencies rolled into one – from the more middle-class areas around Castleknock - across the canal to largely working-class areas such as Mulhuddart and Corduff – to the huge Celtic Tiger developments at Ongar on the Dublin-Meath border.
    Parts of the constituency saw the biggest population increases in the country at the most recent Census – with Dublin West now taking in 121,897 people.
    There are no changes to the boundaries in this socially diverse constituency.
    https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/results/#/national/dublin-west


  • Options
    #289
    StoptheClocks
    Registered Users Posts: 215 ✭✭StoptheClocks


    Ruth nearly 1000 ahead on the 3rd count.

    Ruth - 6430
    O'Gorman - 5471


  • Options
    #290
    ArmaniJeanss
    Registered Users Posts: 13,418 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    The remaining eliminations should favour Roderic overall, but 1000 is a lot to make up.
    1250 from the Soc Dems next up, followed by 1500ish from Aontu, then FG2 and finally Joan.


  • Options
    #291
    RoryMac
    Registered Users Posts: 5,288 ✭✭✭RoryMac


    Leo still not over the line after 3rd count!


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #292
    Polar101
    Registered Users Posts: 3,847 ✭✭✭Polar101


    Leo still 20 short after 4th count.

    Coppinger 6,808
    O'Gorman 5,919

    Seems like a fairly big gap.

    Edit: Chambers 7,385

    Coppinger not that far behind Chambers actually.


  • Options
    #293
    Hurrache
    Registered Users Posts: 10,228 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    Polar101 wrote: »
    Leo still 20 short after 4th count.

    Who's have put any sort of money on that pre election.


  • Options
    #294
    thomasj
    Registered Users Posts: 4,806 ✭✭✭thomasj


    https://twitter.com/davitter/status/1226609143877861376?s=19


  • Options
    #295
    ArmaniJeanss
    Registered Users Posts: 13,418 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    Hurrache wrote: »
    Is there another constituency like this in terms of socioeconomic and political extremes?

    Dublin Bay North has to be a candidate for this. Includes Coolock/Darndale on it's west, Clontarf on the east and Howth peninsula in the north.


  • Options
    #296
    thomasj
    Registered Users Posts: 4,806 ✭✭✭thomasj


    Leo's been elected on count 5


  • Options
    #297
    KGLady
    Registered Users Posts: 338 ✭✭KGLady


    From RTE : Emer Currie (FG) and Joan Burton (Lab) eliminated. The sixth count will be the last.

    JC: 7836
    RC: 6991
    RoG: 6270

    Squeeky bum time!


  • Options
    #298
    ArmaniJeanss
    Registered Users Posts: 13,418 ✭✭✭✭ArmaniJeanss


    You'd have to think far too many will go to Jack Chambers on this count for the Green to have a chance.
    Roderic O'Gorman really needed it to be a straight head to head against Ruth Coppinger when Currie and Burton were being eliminated. But Jack has unperformed without ever being in danger.


  • Options
    #299
    angel eyes 2012
    Registered Users Posts: 911 ✭✭✭angel eyes 2012


    KGLady wrote: »
    From RTE : Emer Currie (FG) and Joan Burton (Lab) eliminated. The sixth count will be the last.

    JC: 7836
    RC: 6991
    RoG: 6270

    Squeeky bum time!

    Any chance JC will be eliminated?


  • Options
    #300
    Hurrache
    Registered Users Posts: 10,228 ✭✭✭✭Hurrache


    angel eyes 2012 wrote: »
    Any chance JC will be eliminated?

    Not really with those numbers.


  • Advertisement
  • Options
    #301
    thomasj
    Registered Users Posts: 4,806 ✭✭✭thomasj


    ArmaniJeanss wrote: »
    You'd have to think far too many will go to Jack Chambers on this count for the Green to have a chance.
    Roderic O'Gorman really needed it to be a straight head to head against Ruth Coppinger when Currie and Burton were being eliminated. But Jack has unperformed without ever being in danger.

    What happens the surplus if he exceeds the quota?


Advertisement