Election Thread - Dublin West - SEE MOD NOTE IN POST 1

Remind me

LoonyLovegood wrote: »

Had a few FF-ers saying he wouldn't be at the count centre till he was about to be elected because he "doesn't like the media". Considering his Claire Byrne showings, that wouldn't shock me...

Such rubbish. He was on RTÉ or virgin most days pre and post the Claire Byrne show.

Caranica

Remind me wrote: »

Such rubbish. He was on RTÉ or virgin most days pre and post the Claire Byrne show.

Most days? Doesn't sound like media balance. Might have to go look those figures up

Remind me

Caranica wrote: »

Most days? Doesn't sound like media balance. Might have to go look those figures up

He was the FF representative in a lot of panel debates/conversations. Just take a look at his or RTE/Virgin twitter accounts.

Between himself and O’Broin for SF they were on a lot.

dtf

LoonyLovegood wrote: »

Chambers votes just plummet the further you get from Castleknock.

Had a few FF-ers saying he wouldn't be at the count centre till he was about to be elected because he "doesn't like the media". Considering his Claire Byrne showings, that wouldn't shock me...

This is just incorrect. Chambers increased on his 2016 percentage vote in Ladyswell, Corduff, Castaheany, Littlepace, Hartstown, and Blakestown polling stations

His Castleknock Village vote was actually down on GE2016.

chucknorris

dtf wrote: »

This is just incorrect. Chambers increased on his 2016 percentage vote in Ladyswell, Corduff, Castaheany, Littlepace, Hartstown, and Blakestown polling stations

His Castleknock Village vote was actually down on GE2016.

Generally for most people it would look like Chambers first preference vote is almost flat and that would be regarded by most as a good day.

If looking at it in a little more details, his first preference vote was 16.5% in 2016 while this time out it was 15.8%. That seems like nothing to a casual observer but to someone like Jack who has serious future aspirations and who has been groomed to achieve them, this would annoy him and to a certain extent, concern him.

He finished third this time out, when he finished 2nd in 2016.

His first preference vote is up by 100 but the valid vote count is up from 64000 to 70000, so that's not something to find as a positive by any means because it suggests the extra turnout is not for FF.

There are many ways to look at it, but if I were Jack Chambers I would be concerned that younger voters are almost certainly not enamoured to him. Older voters certainly are and i know this from talking to some of them but they are not the base you need to be Taoiseach and yes you read that right, his goal is to be Taoiseach.

Jack will always have a seat in Dublin west, no doubt about it. It would take a lot of old people to pass on for that certainty to change but Jack is very conservative anyway and so as i see it, his future prospects will only get worse on all trends mentioned above.

Remind me

chucknorris wrote: »

Generally for most people it would look like Chambers first preference vote is almost flat and that would be regarded by most as a good day.

If looking at it in a little more details, his first preference vote was 16.5% in 2016 while this time out it was 15.8%. That seems like nothing to a casual observer but to someone like Jack who has serious future aspirations and who has been groomed to achieve them, this would annoy him and to a certain extent, concern him.

He finished third this time out, when he finished 2nd in 2016.

His first preference vote is up by 100 but the valid vote count is up from 64000 to 70000, so that's not something to find as a positive by any means because it suggests the extra turnout is not for FF.

There are many ways to look at it, but if I were Jack Chambers I would be concerned that younger voters are almost certainly not enamoured to him. Older voters certainly are and i know this from talking to some of them but they are not the base you need to be Taoiseach and yes you read that right, his goal is to be Taoiseach.

Jack will always have a seat in Dublin west, no doubt about it. It would take a lot of old people to pass on for that certainty to change but Jack is very conservative anyway and so as i see it, his future prospects will only get worse on all trends mentioned above.

Think that would represent a lot of FF across the country in terms of the age profile of the voters and something FF and FG need to address.

chucknorris

Ruth will find it hard to operate with the few quid drying up and this is one way to address that. I might sound cynical but this is precisely why parties are benefical and why seperating from her colleagues before the election was a disasterous move.


https://www.thejournal.ie/ruth-coppinger-running-for-seanad-5007179-Feb2020/

LoonyLovegood

As someone with a NUI vote, she's making a huge mistake running in it. It's ridiculously right wing, she'll split the vote between Alice Mary Higgins and herself, and knowing our luck it'll be Mullen, McDowell and someone of a similar ilk who get the three seats.

holly_johnson

Emm wasn’t Ruth a vociferous opponent of the Seanad? I seem to remember her campaigning for its abolition during the referendum.something about it being classist?

But suddenly it’s ok for her now.

Nijmegen

Indeed she did campaign, and specifically focused on the University seats (bearing in mind many seats are also elected by councilors, who you can say have a mandate from the electorate they're passing on indirectly).

The party says that it has examined the electoral rolls for the NUI and Trinity Seanad seats and found some ‘stark’ figures. The party’s councillor Ruth Coppinger said that when you compare areas, those registered to vote in Seanad elections are far more likely to be from the wealthier spots.

“For example, Torquay Road in Foxrock has 67 votes out of 68 houses whereas the whole of Dublin 10 has 126 votes in 8,600 houses” she said. “That said even in those better off areas most people do not have a vote.”
....
She added that people now actually have a chance to vote on the Seanad and they should use the opportunity to abolish what she described as a ‘classist institution’.

Larbre34

Between them everyone left of the Soc Dems couldn't organise the proverbial piss up in a brewery. And thats a terrible let down for their collective constituency, who really should be the focus of all their efforts, not who gets to be the biggest maverick.

Former Former

LoonyLovegood wrote: »

As someone with a NUI vote, she's making a huge mistake running in it. It's ridiculously right wing, she'll split the vote between Alice Mary Higgins and herself, and knowing our luck it'll be Mullen, McDowell and someone of a similar ilk who get the three seats.

Yeah I can't see this being a good move for Coppinger. I presume she thinks her brand of militant feminism will go down well with them but as you say, it's the most right wing conservative constituency in Irish politics.

Zaph

To be honest, much and all as I dislike Coppinger and her hypocrisy over this makes me dislike her even more, I'll vote for her if it means that there's a chance that Rónán Mullen might lose his seat.

NufcNavan

holly_johnson wrote: »

Emm wasn’t Ruth a vociferous opponent of the Seanad? I seem to remember her campaigning for its abolition during the referendum.something about it being classist?

But suddenly it’s ok for her now.

It'll be a handy number for her to piss and moan about everything while getting paid handsomely to do so.

daymobrew

holly_johnson wrote: »

Is there any way to find out what the tallies or vote count was for a particular box? I’d love to know how mine voted.

It should be possible to get the actual count info by box.
A number of years ago the Community Voice newspaper (sorely missed!) listed results by box. It was interesting reading. I think that it should be public info. No personal info would be involved.

jack presley

Leo must think there's another election coming. He's the only one around Mulhuddart with posters still up. Ironic considering he probably hasn't been this side of the N3 anytime recently.

Hurrache

Slight distraction in running the country I suppose. Can't fault any sitting Taoiseach for that,.

Remind me

Hurrache wrote: »

Slight distraction in running the country I suppose. Can't fault any sitting Taoiseach for that,.

Doubt Leo is climbing many ladders

Caranica

Remind me wrote: »

Doubt Leo is climbing many ladders

Nobody should have been near climbing ladders in the weather we've had in the last two days. Downright dangerous

Remind me

Caranica wrote: »

Nobody should have been near climbing ladders in the weather we've had in the last two days. Downright dangerous

Most seem to have the long handled cutter for taking them down so hopefully not many up on ladders

Hurrache

Remind me wrote: »

Doubt Leo is climbing many ladders

Nor any other politician.

Remind me

Hurrache wrote: »

Nor any other politician.

Photo op

Remind me

Hurrache wrote: »

Nor any other politician.

Photo op

holly_johnson

daymobrew wrote: »

It should be possible to get the actual count info by box.
A number of years ago the Community Voice newspaper (sorely missed!) listed results by box. It was interesting reading. I think that it should be public info. No personal info would be involved.

Yes, I remember that! I was sure I’d seen my box results before. I agree it should be made public.

Nijmegen

The box-by-box count is done by the political parties themselves and not officials, so there isn't official data on a box by box basis to release.

What happens is that the first stage of a count for the staff is to unload the box and literally count that the number of ballots in the box matches the number of ballots on the paperwork from the presiding officer who manned the desk on the day of the poll. By convention the count staff do this on desks facing outward, and display each ballot facing outward. The tallymen of the political parties (who gang together and conduct the tally of votes cooperatively) then note the preference on the ballot. So effectively the count staff and the political staff are counting in different ways. The returns go back to a gaggle of people with laptops who input them into their own spreadsheets box by box. Typically they present the overall figures but keep the box by box, as this is valuable political information.

A box will represent specific areas and streets and the info there has large value in seeing trends and knowing where to campaign first and foremost. Though the info is shared among the parties and sometimes leaks out (the editor of the Community Voice was a terribly nice chap of very good standing among people of all parties and had sources for acquiring the actual box by box breakdown) more often than not the info is held closely. You've gone to all that effort to collect it - it is a significant operation, requiring typically 2x tally people per box with maybe 15+ boxes being opened at a time in a count center plus the lads on laptops etc - and any old independent candidate or blow in could take it and use it to their advantage against you.

One of the reasons political parties opposed e-voting was the perceived risk of losing box by box tallys. Of course a simple solution would be for the returning officer to note first preferences by box, but our counting system in PR-STV takes long enough as it is.

AlanG

Nijmegen wrote: »

One of the reasons political parties opposed e-voting was the perceived risk of losing box by box tallys. Of course a simple solution would be for the returning officer to note first preferences by box, but our counting system in PR-STV takes long enough as it is.

A key reason for there being no official box by box totals is the risk to the secret ballot. Some boxes, especially on islands and in rural areas have very few votes so it is apparently possible to work out who voted for who or at least if someone didn't vote for a particular party. It may seem extreme but the government have to be very careful about the information they release.

Grudaire

AlanG wrote: »

A key reason for there being no official box by box totals is the risk to the secret ballot. Some boxes, especially on islands and in rural areas have very few votes so it is apparently possible to work out who voted for who or at least if someone didn't vote for a particular party. It may seem extreme but the government have to be very careful about the information they release.

I was wondering about this - surely the approach of allowing a tally of an individual box would be subject to the same concerns?

Nijmegen

Political parties control the laws governing elections. We don't have an electoral commission either, a cynic might say because it could interfere in How Things Are Done.

AlanG

Nijmegen wrote: »

Political parties control the laws governing elections. We don't have an electoral commission either, a cynic might say because it could interfere in How Things Are Done.

Given that we have one of the most representative democracies in the world and a written constitution there is very little to be cynical about. In Ireland the seat count if far closer aligned to public opinion than in many democracies. Anywhere with first past the post, a list system or a minimum national vote requirement to enter parliament is far more skewed towards the larger parties. The main issue raised with our system is that many countries would consider it too representative to make efficient decisions.

quickbeam

Anyone know how our FG, FF and Green Councillors and TDs are voting in the programme for government proposal?

This, I think, is a list of them all:

FF
Jack Chambers
Freddie Cooper
Tom Kitt
Howard Mahony
Robert O'Donoghue*


FG
Emer Currie
Kieran Dennison
Ted Leddy
Punam Rane
Leo Varadkar


Green
Pamela Conroy
David Healy*
Roderic O'Gorman
Daniel Whooley



Obviously Leo is voting for it. Roderick and Jack seem to be too. I'm less sure about the Councillors. Anyone know?



* I know not D15, but as Mayor and Deputy Mayor I think it's worth knowing also