Dublin Bay North General Election 2019

Lavinia

Good to hear Bruton gives kudos to SF

gormdubhgorm

Jayus, FF could get two seats I did not see that happening, the two H's Haughey and Heaney. Bruton in again, and Noone being hammered was fairly obvious. Bruton probably lost some votes because of Noone though.

Denise Mitchell walking it. I would love to see a breakdown of the areas where SF got the vote I assume it was all the working class areas?

O'Riordan only likely to get a seat because of the Broughan/McGrath gap in the market. And the last bit a battle

Mitchell
Haughey
Bruton
O'Riordan
And a scrap between Healy/O'Callaghan/Heaney for the last seat.

Heaney should get a chunk of transfers from Haughey? And O'Callaghan should get transfers from Labour. Healy would be lucky to get in as a result I would say?
Where would the SF transfers go to the fringe lefties or the SD, or Greens?
The last seat will be really interesting that is for sure.

odyssey06

I doubt Haughey would have much over the quota to help Heney out so FF two seats highly unlikely.
Mitchell over quota transfers could be important.

expectationlost

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

Denise Mitchell walking it. I would love to see a breakdown of the areas where SF got the vote I assume it was all the working class areas?

O'Riordan only likely to get a seat because of the Broughan/McGrath gap in the market. And the last bit a battle

SF got 80% in one box in Priorswood https://twitter.com/conorparle/status/1226457225377538048

don't want 2 of any party

Pawwed Rig

SF surplus could go anywhere other than FG. You would expect them to goto PBP in an election of well informed people but I reckon alot of the vote is a protest vote.

bren2001

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

SF surplus could go anywhere other than FG. You would expect them to goto PBP in an election of well informed people but I reckon alot of the vote is a protest vote.

John Lyons is ex-PBP. I think SF will transfer there, they typically transfer independent which suits him too.

Mitchells transfers could bring anyone into it. Obviously, Healy/Cian is the likely battle for seat 5. I'd love to see Cian get it.

gormdubhgorm

expectationlost wrote: »

SF got 80% in one box in Priorswood https://twitter.com/conorparle/status/1226457225377538048

don't want 2 of any party

That is very impressive if SF can keep most of that vote going forward in the election. They will not need any new demographic if they wanted to get a second seat.
It makes a big change from Sean Haughey's stranglehold on Dublin North Central (barring 2011) even bringing in that Callelly fella with him, and Woods stranglehold on Dublin North East bringing into another FF'er with him.

Times have definitely changed.

expectationlost

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

That is very impressive if SF can keep most of that vote going forward in the election. They will not need any new demographic if they wanted to get a second seat.
It makes a big change from Sean Haughey's stranglehold on Dublin North Central (barring 2011) even bringing in that Callelly fella with him, and Woods stranglehold on Dublin North East bringing into another FF'er with him.

Times have definitely changed.

How different are SF to FF in practicality when in power?

gormdubhgorm

bren2001 wrote: »

John Lyons is ex-PBP. I think SF will transfer there, they typically transfer independent which suits him too.

Mitchells transfers could bring anyone into it. Obviously, Healy/Cian is the likely battle for seat 5. I'd love to see Cian get it.

The two of them seem like decent auld salts, I wouldn't begrudge any of them getting it. They both have been putting the work in for years now. Will be sickner for who ever misses out.

Lavinia

Maria Delaney
@mhdelaney

Expected quota (on current votes tallied): 5,803 (50% boxes open) #dubbn
- Mitchell (SF) 10,364
- Bruton (FG) 5,248
- O Riordain (LAB) 4,190
- Haughey (FF) 3,448
- O’Callaghan (SD) 2,799
- Healy (GP) 2,383
- Heney (FF) 1,822

gormdubhgorm

expectationlost wrote: »

How different are SF to FF in practicality.

In the very early history there was not much. Now there is a lot I would say! As SF have to play two different games in two different jurisdictions for a start.


One party (FF) riddled with a history of corruption, and the other (SF) with history of being fairly loose in thier approach to criminality and the rule of law. SCC courts, the disappeared, various cases related to thier republicanism.

But the SF demographic sees 'corruption' big banks, 'greedy' landlords (thier never is a nice landlord apparently) as more of moral stain on FF than any bloodstain on SF. Some of that demographic have fallen for the FFG line and assume FG behaved the same way as FF as a whole.

V

SF's attitudes to murder, criminality and so on - they have to talk from both sides of thier mouth when it comes to that, due to being the only all ireland party.

It is understandable since most of that SF demographic will not remember the troubles but were impacted by the crash. Disenfranchised and disillusioned the SF far left policies seem very appealing to them.

ShaneU

Thank God Michael Burke isn't on that list. Eirexit me hole

antimatterx

Hopefully Catherine Noone makes big gains from Richard's transfers

expectationlost

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

In the very early history there was not much. Now there is a lot I would say! As SF have to play two different games in two different jurisdictions for a start.


One party (FF) riddled with a history of corruption, and the other (SF) with history of being fairly loose in thier approach to criminality and the rule of law. SCC courts, the disappeared, various cases related to thier republicanism.

But the SF demographic sees 'corruption' big banks, 'greedy' landlords (thier never is a nice landlord apparently) as more of moral stain on FF than any bloodstain on SF. Some of that demographic have fallen for the FFG line and assume FG behaved the same way as FF as a whole.

V

SF's attitudes to murder, criminality and so on - they have to talk from both sides of thier mouth when it comes to that, due to being the only all ireland party.

It is understandable since most of that SF demographic will not remember the troubles but were impacted by the crash. Disenfranchised and disillusioned the SF far left policies seem very appealing to them.

so they both don't follow laws how far left an SF be in power? are they just like FF they pretend to be left.

gormdubhgorm

antimatterx wrote: »

Hopefully Catherine Noone makes big gains from Richard's transfers

I would say two chances of that fat chance and no chance.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catherine_Noone

I voted for Bruton no1 (first time FG voter) and there was no way I was even going to give Noone any sort of preference. She got stitched up, but being fast and loose with comments is dodgy for politician. Even on boards you might get a warning for it.
She dug a deeper hole for herself when using the word n!gger, as an example of words that can be used out of context when caught in her autism controversy.

Seems out of her depth to be considered a public rep in DE

I wouldn't feel too sorry for her she has a nice house with a sea view in Howth. And a cushy number in the Seanad.
She is from Mayo originally anyway - sure aren't they well known for shooting themselves in the foot in GAA context?

gormdubhgorm

expectationlost wrote: »

so they both don't follow laws how far left an SF be in power? are they just like FF they pretend to be left.

SF are definitely left they always have been, 'the socialist 32 county republic' is the aspirational dream for them. FF used to go for the populist policies when it suited. But for SF it is a clear ideology with SF party members referring to each other as 'comrade' and so on.

bren2001

antimatterx wrote: »

Hopefully Catherine Noone makes big gains from Richard's transfers

Bruton won't have a large surplus. She's too far behind. It's over for her, she firmly put the nails in he town coffin.

I personally don't understand how anyone who could put her #1 on their ballot. She showed how utterly incompetent she is in this campaign. She's well out of her depth. Her career is over.

FG will need to find another long term successor to Bruton or risk someone like Aodhan raking up the Clontarf vote.

expectationlost

expectationlost wrote: »

SF got 80% in one box in Priorswood https://twitter.com/conorparle/status/1226457225377538048

don't want 2 of any party

in a way Lab and SD are the same, maybe a Green would give more variety of representation.

gormdubhgorm

bren2001 wrote: »

Bruton won't have a large surplus. She's too far behind. It's over for her, she firmly put the nails in he town coffin.

I personally don't understand how anyone who could put her #1 on their ballot. She showed how utterly incompetent she is in this campaign. She's well out of her depth. Her career is over.

FG will need to find another long term successor to Bruton or risk someone like Aodhan raking up the Clontarf vote.

I don't understand how FG ended up with someone so 'eejity' as Noone.
They had her running in Dublin West the last election - not much hope demographics wise there for a start.

You would think all FG needed was a clean cut, middle class businessman/businesswoman type - local worked with the community. Someone who thinks before they speak. But yet they ended up with Noone.

I know FG lost Terrance Flanagan to Renua and then he did a u-turn back with FG, but wouldn't you think they could find a half decent replacement somewhere?

gormdubhgorm

expectationlost wrote: »

in a way Lab and SD are the same, maybe a Green would give more variety or representation.

I think they basically are the same, just different colours splitting the vote.

Pawwed Rig

bren2001 wrote: »

I personally don't understand how anyone who could put her #1 on their ballot. She showed how utterly incompetent she is in this campaign. She's well out of her depth. Her career is over.

If you wanted a FG return to power and were fairly sure Richard Bruton would be elected then that is a good reason to give her a number 1.
I agree she has been a disappointing candidate though. Not sure why she was on the ticket tbh. Is it a quota reason?

Collie D

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

I would say two chances of that fat chance and no chance.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catherine_Noone

I voted for Bruton no1 (first time FG voter) and there was no way I was even going to give Noone any sort of preference. She got stitched up, but being fast and loose with comments is dodgy for politician. Even on boards you might get a warning for it.
She dug a deeper hole for herself when using the word n!gger, as an example of words that can be used out of context when caught in her autism controversy.

Seems out of her depth to be considered a public rep in DE

I wouldn't feel too sorry for her she has a nice house with a sea view in Howth. And a cushy number in the Seanad.
She is from Mayo originally anyway - sure aren't they well known for shooting themselves in the foot in GAA context?

I could have written this myself. Also a first time FG voter. Bruton got my 1 but Noone was probably a double digit number for me ahead of the Gilroy, Burke, Garrigan type headbangers.

She hasn’t got the self awareness to be in the Dail.

gormdubhgorm

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

If you wanted a FG return to power and were fairly sure Richard Bruton would be elected then that is a good reason to give her a number 1.
I agree she has been a disappointing candidate though. Not sure why she was on the ticket tbh. Is it a quota reason?

I would love to know the reason for this as well, she is FG deputy leader in the Seanad parachuted from Dublin West to Dublin Bay.

She must be well in with someone, somewhere. Because you could hardly call her 'capable' and she seems very loose lipped and has to do a lot of backtracking. MMA ,and autism comments, then parking her campaign van on a footpath - and telling people like Joanne O'Riordan to 'get a grip' when they pointed out the disability access problems.

expectationlost

gormdubhgorm wrote: »

I don't understand how FG ended up with someone so 'eejity' as Noone.
They had her running in Dublin West the last election - not much hope demographics wise there for a start.

You would think all FG needed was a clean cut, middle class businessman businesswoman type - local worked with the community. Someone who thinks before they speak. But yet they ended up with Noone.

I know FG lost Terrance Flanagan to Renua and then he did a u-turn back with FG, but wouldn't you think they could find a half decent replacement somewhere?

They say that incumbent candidates don't want a strong party competitor lest they be over taken, the other option was to have Naoise Ó Muirí, although they would have probably picked Flanagan over him as he and his brother have a stronger base in the centre of the constituency. Noone was gender quota candidate she had no hope of getting in.

Somebody pointed out to me that both Flangan brothers put down their parents address in Coolock on the ballot/notice of poll, but neither live there.

gormdubhgorm

Collie D wrote: »

I could have written this myself. Also a first time FG voter. Bruton got my 1 but Noone was probably a double digit number for me ahead of the Gilroy, Burke, Garrigan type headbangers.

She hasn’t got the self awareness to be in the Dail.

I was going to do this, but I said to myself jayus what if one of 'the headbangers' got in? So I only went down to number 5. A shame there are no new independents of the caliber of Broughan/McGrath. In the past I always liked giving a vote to an independent, to keep the rest of the parties honest - get local issues to the forefront.

odyssey06

expectationlost wrote: »

they say that incumbent candidates don't want a strong pary competitor lest they be over taken the, the other option was to have Naoise Ó Muirí, although the would have probably picked Flanagan over him as he and his brother have a stronger based in the centre of the constituency.

Plus they needed quota of female candidates.

antimatterx

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

If you wanted a FG return to power and were fairly sure Richard Bruton would be elected then that is a good reason to give her a number 1.
I agree she has been a disappointing candidate though. Not sure why she was on the ticket tbh. Is it a quota reason?

That's what I did

Lavinia

99percent of DUBBN
https://twitter.com/socmot/status/1226512786550906881?s=20

gormdubhgorm

antimatterx wrote: »

That's what I did

All I could think of when I saw Noone's name on the ballet - No-one has less of a hope than Noone.

SF must be licking thier lips for the election after this.
Only one decent FG and FF candidate each, McGrath and Broughan gone. By the time the next election comes it could be two SF. :eek:
By that stage Howth will be hoping it is finally a breakaway island. Maybe it could declare Independence?

ShaneU

https://twitter.com/RTEDublinBayNth/status/1226515795473240064

Collie D

Lavinia wrote: »

99percent of DUBBN
https://twitter.com/socmot/status/1226512786550906881?s=20

When they say “missed” I presume they mean they forgot to count it and now have?

Pawwed Rig

Mitchell polled alot higher than I expected. I am sure SF will regret not having a second candidate.
Haughey and Bruton are less than I thought but will get over the line. As predicted it is between SD and GP. I would favour the SD candidate tbh and that is where my transfer will be going once the candidate I voted for is out.

antimatterx

Very happy Cian is getting in. I'm FG but he does a lot of great work locally and deserves his seat.

Fine Gael should try snap him up for Brutons successor

Lavinia

full tally now available for dubbn

https://twitter.com/OCallaghanCian/status/1226518496894488582?s=20

Pawwed Rig

antimatterx wrote: »

Very happy Cian is getting in. I'm FG but he does a lot of great work locally and deserves his seat.

Fine Gael should try snap him up for Brutons successor

He is not in yet

Lavinia

surplus distribution
https://twitter.com/naoiseomuiri/status/1226565426810949633?s=20

L1011

antimatterx wrote: »

Very happy Cian is getting in. I'm FG but he does a lot of great work locally and deserves his seat.

Fine Gael should try snap him up for Brutons successor

Why on earth would he join FG?

expectationlost

theres a obsessive troll operating on politics.ie and twitter re DBN, now that kind of trolling wouldn't last very lone here because boards.ie is moderated, thought they may have to try more low level trolling to see if they provoke a reaction from others.

antimatterx

L1011 wrote: »

Why on earth would he join FG?

Career opportunities. He's a talented politician, potential to be a minister and FG need a Bruton successor whenever he chooses to retire!

L1011

antimatterx wrote: »

Career opportunities. He's a talented politician, potential to be a minister and FG need a Bruton successor whenever he chooses to retire!

Considering he left Labour on a matter of principle, I suspect he would never, ever join FG. FG are a toxic brand to anyone other than their core support.

I also can't think of a left-wing TD deciding they weren't left-wing and joining FG since Michael O'Leary in the early 80s.

Lavinia

we're on telly

return guide

Lavinia wrote: »

surplus distribution
https://twitter.com/naoiseomuiri/status/1226565426810949633?s=20

Great to see how the PR system works - every vote really does count.

Muahahaha

Catherine Noone bombed on 2,255 votes. Aodhan should be elected when transfers get distributed

ShaneU

Lavinia wrote: »

surplus distribution
https://twitter.com/naoiseomuiri/status/1226565426810949633?s=20

That's conjecture from a 700 person survey, not official but it won't be too far off the mark

Pawwed Rig

L1011 wrote: »

FG are a toxic brand to anyone other than their core support.

Why exactly?
The economy is back on its feet under their stewardship. If they had managed to sort out the health service they would be hailed as the best government in recent times.

People need to realise that as a country we are miles ahead of most other countries on this planet. Could we be better?.Yes
But we could also be ALOT worse

Pawwed Rig

antimatterx wrote: »

Career opportunities. He's a talented politician, potential to be a minister and FG need a Bruton successor whenever he chooses to retire!

Speaking of career opportunities Stephen Donnelly is trailing the SD candidate in Wicklow. He will probably retain his seat but he may struggle at the next election.

L1011

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

Why exactly?
The economy is back on its feet under their stewardship. If they had managed to sort out the health service they would be hailed as the best government in recent times.

People need to realise that as a country we are miles ahead of most other countries on this planet. Could we be better?.Yes
But we could also be ALOT worse

We won't see his tranfers but it is likely that nearly nobody who voted for O'Callaghan is going to countenance voting FG.

Would be even more disastrous than Donnelly joining FF in Wicklow and maybe scraping back in.

antimatterx

L1011 wrote: »

We won't see his tranfers but it is likely that nearly nobody who voted for O'Callaghan is going to countenance voting FG.

Would be even more disastrous than Donnelly joining FF in Wicklow and maybe scraping back in.

I gave FG 1/2 and the SD 3

bren2001

antimatterx wrote: »

I gave FG 1/2 and the SD 3

FG transfer quite well to Labour and SD but transfers don't go the other way.

I don't understand how someone goes FG number 1 and a centre left party number 2.

L1011

antimatterx wrote: »

I gave FG 1/2 and the SD 3

Which is the complete and utter reverse of what I was talking about

SD voters are not going to vote FG. If you want a replacement for Bruton you'd better find one yourself; because you're not going to swipe it from a diametrically opposed party. May as well look to SF!