Election 2020 Fingal Constituency

LeoB

What are your predictions for February 8th, not Ireland v Wales!!So how do you see it going in Dublin Fingal.

With Brendan Ryan and Clare Daly out of the running it will be interesting and I think very close.

A big thanks to Brendan Ryan for such great service to North Dublin over the years as a Councillor and T.D. Always very approachable and very nice to deal with. Happy retirement Brendan



My prediction
Darragh O Brian
Louise O'Reilly
Duncan Smith
Joe O'Brian/James Reilly. Dean Mulligan

I think F.G will be under severe pressure. Neither Mr Reilly or Mr Farrell appear to be very popular and recent media reports might not help them. Even in our deepest despair 10 years ago I dont think FF were as unpopular as this current Government.
Darragh O'Brian has performed well on Radio and TV and he is always around especially this last 6 months. I have found him very approachable and easy to deal with on the 2 occasions I met him. Will be interesting to see how Joe O'Brian of the Greens gets on. But not sure he has had enough time to grow his base. Met him before he got elected and came across very well.
Louise O'Reilly was very good recently on 2 radio interviews I heard.
Will people get behind Duncan Smith? He is certainly very popular around Swords and lads I have spoke to think he will get in. He has been doing a lot of good work. Dean Mulligan will be hoping for a bigger swing from Clare Dalys base.

mactheknife19

Surely Reilly has given up at this stage. Is he on the ticket. I’d say FG would prefer to just run 1 candidate (Farrell) and let him hoover up all the die hard FG’s, get a seat and move on. The guy is a tool, but he’s clever in that most of the time he just hides in the shadows and does nothing, It’s when he opens his mouth....

Inquitus

FF will never get a vote off me after the recession, not for a long long while.

Dizzyblonde

Brendan Ryan worked very hard for us, as did Sean before him and I'm sorry to see him stand down. I've had dealings with Duncan Smith though and he's equally committed and hard working so I'm hoping he gets a seat. He'll be getting my vote.

selassie

Darragh O Brian
Joe O'Brien
Louise O'Reilly

then between:
Duncan Smith
Dean Mulligan
Alan Farrell

I think Dean takes the 4th seat and one of FG/LAB miss out, probably LAB.

pinkypinky

I'd say FF will try Lorraine Clifford-Lee again as well as Darragh.

Joe O'Brien should hopefully retain his seat - he hasn't had much time to do anything wrong.

Louise O'Reilly to retain hers too.

The big fight is for Brendan Ryan's seat.

tobsey

FG and FF will definitely get one seat each. I'd say with Clare Daly gone that will help Labour and SF more than the two main parties so Louise O'Reilly is a good shout. SF only got 5% of the vote though in the bye-election so it's not all good for them in the constituency.

My guess would be:
Darragh O'Brien
Joe O'Brien
Duncan Smith
Alan Farrell
Dean Mulligan

in that order.

koutoubia

Big sign up for 'James O'Reilly No.1' outside Balrothery.
Looks like his ego still believes he is liked!

pinkypinky

tobsey wrote: »

FG and FF will definitely get one seat each. I'd say with Clare Daly gone that will help Labour and SF more than the two main parties so Louise O'Reilly is a good shout. SF only got 5% of the vote though in the bye-election so it's not all good for them in the constituency.

My guess would be:
Darragh O'Brien
Joe O'Brien
Duncan Smith
Alan Farrell
Dean Mulligan

in that order.

I'd hate to see no female representation for the constituency.
Was surprising the Social Democrats didn't show better in the bye-election.
We're such a liberal area, you'd think they'd be more popular.

05eaftqbrs9jlh

How do you find out what constituency you're in? Besides the obnoxious posters. I'm on a border street and can't figure out if I'm one or other.

tobsey

pinkypinky wrote: »

I'd hate to see no female representation for the constituency.
Was surprising the Social Democrats didn't show better in the bye-election.
We're such a liberal area, you'd think they'd be more popular.

Yes that's a fair point but I can't see FF getting a second seat so that's Clifford-Lee out. I'd personally hope that Louise O'Reilly doesn't get votes just for gender balance reasons but if she gets elected on her own metrits then fair enough. Her and her party aren't for me though.

FG have an incumbent and a prominent party member both male, regardless of what people make of them as individuals, so can't really blame FG for going with those two.

Clare Daly is backing a male candidate so that's at least one lady gone, whether her pick gets in will be hard to call.

I'll have the SD candidate high enough in my picks but based on the bye-election I can't see her getting in.

If it happens to be all male candidates it'll look bad from a statistics point of view but I'm not sure anything could, or should, be done about it. I don;t think it's fair to exclude male candidates just to try for more gender balance, if the male candidate is genuinely the best candidate.

PWEI

First four seats to

Darragh O'Brien
Joe O'Brien
Louise O'Reilly
Duncan Smith

Last seat between Alan Farrell & Dean Mulligan.


I'm hoping people remember Alan Farrell was seen up ladders a few weeks after making a whiplash claim when a car rolled in to his at 5mph.
Yet afterwards had the cheek to lecture the Insurance industry about the compensation culture.

There is nothing my disgusting than a publicly exposed chancer trying to be sanctimonious.

pinkypinky

Social Democrats are running a different candidate this time around - Cllr Paul Mulville.
https://www.socialdemocrats.ie/our-people/cllr-paul-mulville/

Cloudio9

From the thread it shows the geographic split in what is a very large (for Dublin) constituency. People talking about Ryan’s work but he has been completely silent and unheard of in the southern, more affluent parts of the constituency.

Ff,fg, greens guaranteed one each imo. I think labour will probably take one based on the solid performance in the by election and then a toss up for how the hard left vote shakes out.

Blows my mind that ff could be largest party after what happened so recently and Martin was very central to that catastrophe.

Inquitus

Cloudio9 wrote: »

Blows my mind that ff could be largest party after what happened so recently and Martin was very central to that catastrophe.

Agreed!

PWEI

Dizzyblonde wrote: »

Brendan Ryan worked very hard for us, as did Sean before him and I'm sorry to see him stand down. I've had dealings with Duncan Smith though and he's equally committed and hard working so I'm hoping he gets a seat. He'll be getting my vote.

Yes Duncan Smith works hard locally but this is a general election.

And every time Labour got it to government they have betrayed the people who voted for them.
I voted Labour all my life but they will never get my vote again after the last time they were in government.
Has everyone forgotten Joan Burton's treacherous attack on lone parents?

LeoB

PWEI wrote: »

First four seats to

Darragh O'Brien
Joe O'Brien
Louise O'Reilly
Duncan Smith

Last seat between Alan Farrell & Dean Mulligan.


I'm hoping people remember Alan Farrell was seen up ladders a few weeks after making a whiplash claim when a car rolled in to his at 5mph.
Yet afterwards had the cheek to lecture the Insurance industry about the compensation culture.

There is nothing my disgusting than a publicly exposed chancer trying to be sanctimonious.

Yeah didnt want to go there in my original post. I actually think think F.G could struggle to get a seat. He got elected on 9th count last time without reaching quota. Considering his insurance claim and what we are been charged because of this insurance culture claim people really should remember. I will be helping anyone I know to remember. There was an issue with roaming charges as well.

PWEI wrote: »

Yes Duncan Smith works hard locally but this is a general election.

And every time Labour got it to government they have betrayed the people who voted for them.
I voted Labour all my life but they will never get my vote again after the last time they were in government.
Has everyone forgotten Joan Burton's treacherous attack on lone parents?

I have never met Duncan Smith but in work a lad told me he was top class, very genuine and a hard worker who would put a lot of his colleagues to shame. Straight and honest.

I heard Louise O'Reilly twice on radio and each time I thought she was very good. Dont know her but will give her either 1st or 2nd preference.

The one thing I am hearing is "change". There is huge apathy at the moment so hopefully will get out and vote

Inquitus

Why is James Reilly running for FG, he did awful in the bye election and all he is going to contribute in the GE is making it harder for Farrell to get re-elected due to diluting the 1st pref votes. His time is well and truly past now!

rushfan

I have had a lifetime abhorrence of FF, could never vote for them or SF. So it looks like Labour , Greens, in that order. Can't see Farrell making it this time though.

expectationlost

nominated candidates being adding here https://dublincountyreturningofficer.com/index.php/8-general-information/92-nominated-candidates-2020-dublin-fingal

plodder

Aitana Ripe Mothball wrote: »

How do you find out what constituency you're in? Besides the obnoxious posters. I'm on a border street and can't figure out if I'm one or other.

It's incredible but I don't think there is an easy way. checktheregister.ie doesn't tell you. Even the polling cards don't tell you. It will tell you which polling station to go to, but the first official notification you get is when you are given the ballot paper.

The Rooster

Inquitus wrote: »

Why is James Reilly running for FG, he did awful in the bye election and all he is going to contribute in the GE is making it harder for Farrell to get re-elected due to diluting the 1st pref votes. His time is well and truly past now!

Ironically it's Farrell's ladder escapades that might swing some FG voters back to Reilly!

Or if you're someone who believes a heavily left wing influenced government would be disasterous for the economy and jobs, but who still hasn't forgiven FF, and who thinks what Farrell did is as bad as Swing-Girl, then maybe you might be left with JR as your no.1 !

A lot of its and buts there though

odyssey06

Aitana Ripe Mothball wrote: »

How do you find out what constituency you're in? Besides the obnoxious posters. I'm on a border street and can't figure out if I'm one or other.

Can you tell from the election literature that's being dropped into you?
If it's for a specific candidate should be an indication.

Inquitus

Inquitus wrote: »

Why is James Reilly running for FG, he did awful in the bye election and all he is going to contribute in the GE is making it harder for Farrell to get re-elected due to diluting the 1st pref votes. His time is well and truly past now!

Most candidates for the main political parties were selected well in advance of the recent by election. Reilly & Farrell were selected by Fine Gael in November 2017.

The Davestator

Exactly wrote: »

Most candidates for the main political parties were selected well in advance of the recent by election. Reilly & Farrell were selected by Fine Gael in November 2017.

They've issue de-selecting when it suits them and they should have done it with O'Reilly. I reckon neither get in now

Cloudio9

The Davestator wrote: »

They've issue de-selecting when it suits them and they should have done it with O'Reilly. I reckon neither get in now

The FG vote in Dublin is holding up better than other areas. Very rarely in the past has there been no FG seat in the Dublin North / Fingal constituency and occasionally there has been two.

plodder

There's some suggestion on another forum on this site that FF want to delay Metro link until after 2022 and then redesign it (again).

And delaying the provision of a Metro for Swords by waiting until 2022 and then redesigning the project entirely.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112324778&postcount=827

They won't be getting any vote from me, if this is true.

Sleepy

Really quite torn on preferences this time. Really think Donabate / Portrane needs a TD given the amount of development ongoing and planned (and Fingal County Council's cavalier attitude towards social housing allocation within these developments), the lack of investment in public services, the coastal erosion issues, lack of a Garda station etc. etc. etc.

First preference will probably go to Glenn Brady as I know him personally but he doesn't stand a chance imo, Paul Mulville I've met at a few events and, while I like him, I can't see him getting elected due to the amount of division on the left which just leaves Lorraine Clifford-Lee as a local candidate: a dyed-in-the-wool Fianna Failure who'll no doubt side with developers over sustainable community planning (they aren't known as the party of builders and backhanders without good cause).

Based on her performance in the by-election, I can't see the "scandal" about her Twitter posts causing her any problems in doing well but I just couldn't bring myself to give her a high preference. It seems like, yet again, I'm left working out whether I'd dislike being represented by Sinn Fein any less than I would by Gemma O' Doherty and working my way up from the bottom of the ballot.

Wishbone Ash

Sleepy wrote: »

... Really think Donabate / Portrane needs a TD given the amount of development ongoing and planned (and Fingal County Council's cavalier attitude towards social housing allocation within these developments), the lack of investment in public services, the coastal erosion issues, lack of a Garda station etc....

They had a local TD for about 20 years when most of the development in the peninsula took place.

Sleepy

Hadn't thought of that though I don't think the development over the past 20 years can be compared to what's coming in the next decade: the population is forecast to double and it looks like a high percentage of that is going to be social.

Inquitus

Darragh O'Brien
Joe O'Brien
Louise O'Reilly
Duncan Smith
Alan Farrell

My punt for who'll get elected and in what order, won't be the way I am voting though!

RobFowl

Aspiring Fingal TD Gemma O Doherty parked in a disabled bay in Balrothery tonight. Classy.

Wishbone Ash

RobFowl wrote: »

Aspiring Fingal TD Gemma O Doherty parked in a disabled bay in Balrothery tonight. Classy....]

Just had to 'Pop In' for a minute. How appropriate.

Wishbone Ash

Wishbone Ash wrote: »

They had a local TD for about 20 years when most of the development in the peninsula took place.

.....and I forgot about Paddy Burke who was a local TD there from the 1940's to the 1970's.

L1011

The Mulligan posters make Clare Daly look like the ghost of his doting dead aunt or something.

squawker

L1011 wrote: »

The Mulligan posters make Clare Daly look like the ghost of his doting dead aunt or something.

was laughing at the poster today, looks like Daly is stalking him :pac:

charlietheminxx

squawker wrote: »

was laughing at the poster today, looks like Daly is stalking him :pac:

The best line I saw on this was that she looks like his guardian angel

I will not be voting for FF or FG, would be a bit sickened if Darragh O'Brien tops the poll but at the same time, not surprised. A FF-led government would be atrocious for Fingal though.

Inquitus

James Reilly paid a visit to my doorstep, said let Malahide take care of Farrell and everyone else should vote for him

Uriel.

Be interesting to see if James Reilly gets a boost from the hospital getting planning permission. I think any FG votes would be more likely to go to him than Farrell. Farrell is anonymous and ineffectual, along with the whole insurance thing.

sidcon

Uriel. wrote: »

Be interesting to see if James Reilly gets a boost from the hospital getting planning permission. I think any FG votes would be more likely to go to him than Farrell. Farrell is anonymous and ineffectual, along with the whole insurance thing.

The hospital is a private hospital built with private money nothing to do with Reilly he is piggybacking off it after his last promise never came to fruition

Uriel.

sidcon wrote: »

The hospital is a private hospital built with private money nothing to do with Reilly he is piggybacking off it after his last promise never came to fruition

Of course, but he's got good association with it, whereas Farrell has what exactly?

The thing that pisses me off about the hospital is that Reilly unreservedly states that once built government should be forced to engage with and provide support/business to it.

If he's elected you can see him Lobbying hard on that and tbh it's pure shameful. I'd love the see population health projections that says we need a hospital in Swords and importantly how far up the priority list for funding something like that should be. I'd wager it would be considerably low on the list of priorities for funding.

Wishbone Ash

Uriel. wrote: »

...The thing that pisses me off about the hospital is that Reilly unreservedly states that once built government should be forced to engage with and provide support/business to it....

Perhaps he means that there should be more engagement with private operators to alleviate the bed/trolley crisis. The HSE have a set rate that they offer to private operators but it is not economically viable to the private operator. The HSE would seem to prefer to spend multiple times that set rate keeping 'bed blockers' in large acute hospitals rather than offer a cent extra to the private sector.

lawred2

As a Fingal resident I despair at the candidates on offer...

Inquitus

lawred2 wrote: »

As a Fingal resident I despair at the candidates on offer...

Agreed!

SF - Party of Opposition for now, with pre-school level economic policy
FF - Ruined the country in the recent past, cannot forgive or forget
Greens - Could vote for them, but unlikely to have much impact
FG - Not covered themselves in glory recently, but did do the needful after the crash. Could vote for them.
INDs - All in it for themselves
SD/PBP - simply not credible, either of them.

Uriel.

Wishbone Ash wrote: »

Perhaps he means that there should be more engagement with private operators to alleviate the bed/trolley crisis. The HSE have a set rate that they offer to private operators but it is not economically viable to the private operator. The HSE would seem to prefer to spend multiple times that set rate keeping 'bed blockers' in large acute hospitals rather than offer a cent extra to the private sector.

A set rate for what?

Wishbone Ash

Uriel. wrote: »

A set rate for what?

Nursing care in a private hospital/nursing home etc.

(Many of the patients taking up beds in acute hospitals do not need that level of care and could be catered for elsewhere freeing up badly needed acute beds.)

Uriel.

Wishbone Ash wrote: »

Nursing care in a private hospital/nursing home etc.

(Many of the patients taking up beds in acute hospitals do not need that level of care and could be catered for elsewhere freeing up badly needed acute beds.)

That's nursing homes. And long term care is funded by the NTPF. Short stay care for aimed at hospital egress is almost exclusively provided in private nursing homes, paid for by the HSE (tax payer) @ the same NTPF negotiated rates. The private sector gets circa half a billion euro per annum in this way.
So to be honest I don't know what you are talking about.

plodder

FF seems to be the only major party not committed to the Swords Metro project. It's not mentioned in their manifesto which means you can be sure is the kiss of death.

lawred2

plodder wrote: »

FF seems to be the only major party not committed to the Swords Metro project. It's not mentioned in their manifesto which means you can be sure is the kiss of death.

What is FFs long standing issue with public transport?

Their only real interests seem to lie in building roads

How much will the geography of the constituency play out? Looking at where the current TD's are living:

O'Brien - Malahide
Farrell - Malahide

O'Brien - Skerries
O'Reilly - Skerries
Ryan - Skerries

We know Ryan is not running but you would have to think Swords is going to elect a TD in a 5 seater. Some people have a party allegiance but a lot of people also like to support a candidate from their own area.

Tony Murphy will poll very well in Balbriggan but whether he has a big enough profile elsewhere in the constituency remains to be seen.

pinkypinky

When did we last have a Swords TD? Ray Burke?

I think Michael Kennedy (FF) had his office there. Slightly off-topic, but I remember him canvassing at my parents' house. I was about 28. When I opened the door he asked if my Mammy or Daddy were home. To which I replied, "well, they are, but I'm 28 and you've just lost my vote!"