Election 2020 Fingal Constituency

pinkypinky

pinkypinky wrote: »

When did we last have a Swords TD? Ray Burke?

I think Michael Kennedy (FF) had his office there. Slightly off-topic, but I remember him canvassing at my parents' house. I was about 28. When I opened the door he asked if my Mammy or Daddy were home. To which I replied, "well, they are, but I'm 28 and you've just lost my vote!"

Claire Daly lest we forget ;-)

pinkypinky

Oh yes, I did forget she actually lives in Swords.

PWEI

Even though I said I'd never vote for Labour again after the last time they were in government, I was coming around to the idea of giving Duncan Smith a vote as I've heard a lot of positive things about him.

However Brendan Howlin soon put a stop to that when he ruled out going in to coalition with Sinn Fein on the leaders debate. I find that baffling as Labour are probably more ideologically aligned to Sinn Fein than FG or FF.

Uriel.

PWEI wrote: »

Even though I said I'd never vote for Labour again after the last time they were in government, I was coming around to the idea of giving Duncan Smith a vote as I've heard a lot of positive things about him.

However Brendan Howlin soon put a stop to that when he ruled out going in to coalition with Sinn Fein on the leaders debate. I find that baffling as Labour are probably more ideologically aligned to Sinn Fein than FG or FF.

If you were watching the debate you know that the parties won't give sinn fein a go for reasons other than their primary policies. Including their governance and decision making processes and their position on non-jury courts.

Wishbone Ash

Exactly wrote: »

How much will the geography of the constituency play out? Looking at where the current TD's are living:

O'Brien - Malahide
Farrell - Malahide

O'Brien - Skerries
O'Reilly - Skerries
Ryan - Skerries

We know Ryan is not running but you would have to think Swords is going to elect a TD in a 5 seater. Some people have a party allegiance but a lot of people also like to support a candidate from their own area.

Tony Murphy will poll very well in Balbriggan but whether he has a big enough profile elsewhere in the constituency remains to be seen.

James Reilly has a 'residence' in Rush (not Skerries) but didn't he move 'down the country' somewhere (Tipperary??). I recall a bit of controversy a few years ago about the fact that he didn't live in the constituency so he bought a house in Rush to tick the box as such.

Wishbone Ash

Wishbone Ash wrote: »

James Reilly has a 'residence' in Rush (not Skerries) but didn't he move 'down the country' somewhere (Tipperary??). I recall a bit of controversy a few years ago about the fact that he didn't live in the constituency so he bought a house in Rush to tick the box as such.

Louise O'Reilly lives in Skerries. James Reilly isn't a TD currently.

Wishbone Ash

Exactly wrote: »

Louise O'Reilly lives in Skerries. James Reilly isn't a TD currently.

Doh! My bad - didn't read the post correctly. Apologies!

plodder

Yeah, Swords not having its own TD maybe explains why nobody has been championing the Metro to the extent that they should. It's one of those things, that if it gets built the public won't know themselves, but in order to be built, people have to fight for it. The thing is that the Swords metro will benefit the whole surrounding region by taking thousands of cars off the roads, even in places where people won't use the Metro directly themselves. Other parts of the country that I know well wouldn't be as apathetic as this. I find it hard to understand.

RobFowl

Sinn Fein doing themselves no favours nationally by co-opting Martina Anderson as an MLA. About as rabid an apologist for the IRA as they come.
Every time they appoint quality representatives (like Louise O Reilly) and start to appeal to a greater audience some one seems to feel its important to get some violent head the balls back to the forefront....

RobFowl

FWIW my take for the 5 seats are

Joe O Brien Green to top the poll
Lousie O Reilly SF
Darragh O Brien FF
Duncan Smith Labour
and the final seat to be fought out between the two FG candidates with it being a toss up.

Cloudio9

RobFowl wrote: »

FWIW my take for the 5 seats are

Joe O Brien Green to top the poll
Lousie O Reilly SF
Darragh O Brien FF
Duncan Smith Labour
and the final seat to be fought out between the two FG candidates with it being a toss up.

You might be right overall but sf will not finish ahead of ff.

Wishbone Ash

RobFowl wrote: »

....Every time they appoint quality representatives (like Louise O Reilly) and start to appeal to a greater audience some one seems to feel its important to get some violent head the balls back to the forefront....

Probably trying to keep the hardliners on board also.

appledrop

Very disgruntled with canidates offered in Fingal.

FF-Will never vote for them especially not for a token female who was put on ballot sheet at last general election with no experience + not living in area.

FG-Have voted for them in past but choice of canidates this time around is crap. Reilly is past his sell by date + Farrell is a joke with his compo claim. Raging he didn't knock at the door, I'd let him know my views on that one! I think FG in serious danger of no seat due to canidate choice.

SF-Actually very surprised so many people see O'Reilly getting a seat. Got her leaflet in door + didn't really seem to me that she achieved very much. No sight or sound of her in Fingal since last election. A few interviews in media doesnt wash with me.

Labour-A joke in last government. However Duncan Smith does seem to be a decent guy so may end up giving him my vote but I dont agree with his party's manifesto.

Greens-O'Brien seems a nice guy but really Greens policies are off the wall. For example Pedestrian lights every 30 seconds+ extending length they remain for! Can you imagine the mayhem that would cause.

No interest in any other canidates parties too left/right wing

Really liked Clare Daly. She was a bit out there but by golly she fought her corner +I really respect that fact that for years + years she fought for rights of women when it wasnt the popular choice.

RobFowl

Cloudio9 wrote: »

You might be right overall but sf will not finish ahead of ff.

I think the FF vote will be split by the 2 candidates so although will poll higher may be behind on the first counts. Cant see Clifford Lee having a hope in hell but she will take votes away from O Brien though he probably get in on her transfers.

Cloudio9

RobFowl wrote: »

I think the FF vote will be split by the 2 candidates so although will poll higher may be behind on the first counts. Cant see Clifford Lee having a hope in hell but she will take votes away from O Brien though he probably get in on her transfers.

Yeah fair point and O’Brien is probably being pushed by the party to manage his vote to help Lee.

ThunbergsAreGo

Feel very similar to apple drop on this.

I too like Smith (and Mulville), and both seem to genuinely care, but both have been to varying degrees part of the County Council that have done very little for the area and I am not mad on either of their parties (who are realistically the same)

Likely those two and a party vote for Fine Gael (don't like their candidates).

Fine Fail aren't really helping their party of the developers image, most of their larger signs on vacant sites or houses waiting to be developed

Wishbone Ash

appledrop wrote: »

Very disgruntled with canidates offered in Fingal....

.......FG-Have voted for them in past but choice of canidates this time around is crap. Reilly is past his sell by date + Farrell is a joke with his compo claim.....

100% agree. I come from a family steeped in Fine Gael back to the pro treaty/civil war era but I'd find it very difficult to give Reilly or Farrell any vote never mind my No. 1.

new2tri19

Who would actually vote for Farrell , its people like him that are causing events to be cancelled , insurance prices through the roof and ruining this country . Every time you read expenses claims his name is not to far away. Like who actually ticks his name at the ballot box. I can only think that it's someone that hasn't read the news at all.

Farrell knocked on my door and I gave him a right ear bashing I told him hes a disgrace and should be in prison.

pinkypinky

I think unfortunately a lot of people vote for personalities and candidates who get things done locally. It's a mistake.

appledrop

new2tri19 wrote: »

Who would actually vote for Farrell , its people like him that are causing events to be cancelled , insurance prices through the roof and ruining this country . Every time you read expenses claims his name is not to far away. Like who actually ticks his name at the ballot box. I can only think that it's someone that hasn't read the news at all.

Farrell knocked on my door and I gave him a right ear bashing I told him hes a disgrace and should be in prison.

Well fairplay to you. I was dying for him to knock on my door but no sign of him. Also we were at an event in Swords last year think it was St. Patrick Day but cant remember + he was trying to pull the politician card + get into council offices/stand but he was turned away. Good enough for him.

lawred2

Reilly and Farrell

I mean... Come on

ninebeanrows

Bad idea for FG to run 2 candidates here.

Think they'll split vote and get no seat

Fancy the 2 FFs to get in as Darragh OBrien will poll very well

1SF 2FF 1LAB 1GREEN

lawred2

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Bad idea for FG to run 2 candidates here.

Think they'll split vote and get no seat

Fancy the 2 FFs to get in as Darragh OBrien will poll very well

1SF 2FF 1LAB 1GREEN

No loss to the county or country at all

appledrop

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Bad idea for FG to run 2 candidates here.

Think they'll split vote and get no seat

Fancy the 2 FFs to get in as Darragh OBrien will poll very well

1SF 2FF 1LAB 1GREEN

I think could be spot on with your predictions but really hope FF dont get that second seat. Cant stand Clifford Lee. FG will definitely split vote so will have to wait + see.

lawred2

appledrop wrote: »

I think could be spot on with your predictions but really hope FF dont get that second seat. Cant stand Clifford Lee. FG will definitely split vote so will have to wait + see.

Can't see where her core vote is... Does she have one? I'd be disappointed alright to see her elected..

appledrop

lawred2 wrote: »

Can't see where her core vote is... Does she have one? I'd be disappointed alright to see her elected..

Yea I would agree I cant see where her core vote is. She polled well in byelection but I'm hoping that was the FF vote rather than one for her. O'Brien running this time aswell so hoping he takes most of FF vote + she gets no seat.

But who knows what's going to happen. FG canidates woeful so not much choice for people.

Wishbone Ash

appledrop wrote: »

... O'Brien running this time aswell so hoping he takes most of FF vote + she gets no seat....

Presumably she'll be hoping for a lot of his transfers and staunch FF supporters will give her their no.2 (or vice versa). Many people think of their vote as a way to keep someone else out rather than a direct vote for a particular candidate.

thequarefellow

If you vote for Alan Farrell you might as well drop your trousers, bend over and chomp down on the cuff of your blue shirt.

Beasty

My first memory of an Irish election campaign was shortly after moving here in 2007. Was picking up the kids from school one evening when a certain candidate with his name emblazoned on his jeep turned up, stepped out of his vehicle with a hand full of sweets and the kids swarmed around him as they came out of school. Reminded me of the child catcher in Chitty Chitty Bang Bang. And he won't be getting my vote this time either....

I think the major parties have struggled to field decent quality candidates which does leave it a bit more open than other constituencies. Yes there are a couple that are almost guaranteed a seat, but I'm struggling with the rest

thequarefellow

PWEI wrote: »

I'm hoping people remember Alan Farrell was seen up ladders a few weeks after making a whiplash claim when a car rolled in to his at 5mph.
Yet afterwards had the cheek to lecture the Insurance industry about the compensation culture.

There is nothing more disgusting than a publicly exposed chancer trying to be sanctimonious.

I can't believe that more people don't refer to this. It's genuinely the reason that I refuse to consider voting Fine Gael.

pinkypinky

I'd give them a lower down preference if the 2 local candidates weren't so poor.

(by which I mean, I wouldn't give them a high preference ever!)

koutoubia

Had a flyer come in the door from FF Clifford - Lee.
It was basically a begging letter begging to vote for her to be elected.
No policy etc just please vote me into the Dail as I was so close in the locals.

RobFowl

koutoubia wrote: »

Had a flyer come in the door from FF Clifford - Lee.
It was basically a begging letter begging to vote for her to be elected.
No policy etc just please vote me into the Dail as I was so close in the locals.

HaHa, Koutobia is actually reading the sh!te that comes though the door.....

The Rooster

RobFowl wrote: »

HaHa, Koutobia is actually reading the sh!te that comes though the door.....

Ah, not all of us know it all already like you.

I'm interested to hear/read what they have to say and then make up my mind as to who is believable, makes sense and would be better than the competition.

veetwin

Has anyone actually seen any of the candidates? I saw J Reilly in Malahide a few weeks ago but that's about it. Had one of Farrell's canvassers at the door and told him that based on his suspect compo claim I would not be voting for him again as both my car and bike insurance happen to be up in the next week and funnily enough both are significantly up on last year. Compo culture and a bang of entitlement are hard to stomach. So far no other canvassers

lawred2

veetwin wrote: »

Has anyone actually seen any of the candidates? I saw J Reilly in Malahide a few weeks ago but that's about it. Had one of Farrell's canvassers at the door and told him that based on his suspect compo claim I would not be voting for him again as both my car and bike insurance happen to be up in the next week and funnily enough both are significantly up on last year. Compo culture and a bang of entitlement are hard to stomach. So far no other canvassers'

Few at the dart station in Portmarnock but nowhere else... Not one to the door yet

bm_1212

we had a SF canvasser at the door, ann graves local councillor, and the wife asked her about housing told her how hard we had struggled for yrs to eventually get our home and how it was most likely we would be putting a cabin in the back garden for the kids to get started- she said to us "arent we lucky we have a back garden"..wife had to be escorted away from the door sharpish!!

eh i dunno

Very poor selection of candidates will put people off voting I'd imagine. I'll probably start at bottom with farrell and work my way up

ThunbergsAreGo

Nobody we are voting for in fingal is getting near a government post

ThunbergsAreGo

ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »

Nobody we are voting for in fingal is getting near a government post

Darragh O'Brien will if Fianna Fail are in government.

Louise O'Reilly a possible if Sinn Fein are but would depend on how many ministers they were to have.

ThunbergsAreGo

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Darragh O'Brien will if Fianna Fail are in government.

Louise O'Reilly a possible if Sinn Fein are but would depend on how many ministers they were to have.

That's true actually, but DOB is a shoe in

SF aren't going near government. I have found LOR really poor every time I have heard her speak, and she has been non existent in my locality, so I hope she gets nowhere near anything

LeoB

Uriel. wrote: »

If you were watching the debate you know that the parties won't give sinn fein a go for reasons other than their primary policies. Including their governance and decision making processes and their position on non-jury courts.

Sein Fein are not the only ones to have a problem with our special criminal courts Amnesty Int and EU human rights commission have voiced concerns. Our courts seem to be a law unto themselves handing out baffling decisions.
IMHO Sinn Fein are going through a massive change and it would be very wrong for parties to ignore them if they get the predicted share of the vote. A substantial amount of younger people are looking towards them as an alternative.

pinkypinky wrote: »

I think unfortunately a lot of people vote for personalities and candidates who get things done locally. It's a mistake.

They do indeed. Probably wont change anytime soon.

ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »

Nobody we are voting for in fingal is getting near a government post

Darragh O;Brian will be at the table if FF get into power. He is a decent performer any time I have seen him. I met him a good few times and always found him decent to deal with. I found him straight and honest. I dont know Lorraine Clifford lee but have seen her out a few times. I think she will do ok.

How anyone could vote for Farrell or Reilly is beyond me. A pair of spoofers. Apart from the insurance issue with Farrell was there also an issue with him claiming roaming charges that no longer existed. If he was the only candidate I wouldnt vote for him and neither of them will get any preference from me.

I think it will be
Darragh O;Brien
Louise O;Reilly
Duncan Smity
Joe O;Brien
Lorraine Clifford lee.

Listening to a lot of the commentary and interviews there are good people in all parties and I wonder if all party government would work?

The biggest surprise for me has been the amount of people switching to Sinn Fein and the amount of young people who say they will vote SF. I have always felt they could be more involved if they had the right people involved and I think that is what is happening. I was also taken aback with how Leo Veradker and Michael Martin talk about SF. They are like kids running out of money at the carnival. Their time is neigh...... I hope.

Anyway get out and make your vote count. Use it well.

Will we get another scandal before Saturday?

seagull

Fingal council have just approved a change to the plans for the Lusk village quarter development, and that has not impressed any of the residents. The reactions of the various candidates to this might have an impact on votes there. James Reilly has pretty much pissed away any chance of first choice votes from Lusk.

lawred2

seagull wrote: »

Fingal council have just approved a change to the plans for the Lusk village quarter development, and that has not impressed any of the residents. The reactions of the various candidates to this might have an impact on votes there. James Reilly has pretty much pissed away any chance of first choice votes from Lusk.

what's the change?

The Rooster

ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »

That's true actually, but DOB is a shoe in

SF aren't going near government. I have found LOR really poor every time I have heard her speak, and she has been non existent in my locality, so I hope she gets nowhere near anything

Agree completely. Underwhelming candidate.
Personally can't understand how anyone with a job would want SF in. I know FF and FG (and to a lesser extent Lab and Green) have made big mistakes while in government, and they've some right eejits, but at least in general they have good aspirations in place.
But a vote for SF is to put our economy at huge risk Anti-business is anti-jobs. At the moment my kids are in a Fingal school, and I know that if they work hard they have huge opportunities to have great careers and great lives in Ireland. Now nothing will be put on a plate for them, but that's the way it should be for the able bodied and able minded.
That goes out the window for SF's marxist ideals.

LeoB wrote: »

Sein Fein are not the only ones to have a problem with our special criminal courts

The biggest surprise for me has been the amount of people switching to Sinn Fein and the amount of young people who say they will vote SF.

There seems little doubt that SF are gaining huge traction among younger voters. I wonder if these people are aware of what exactly SF's link were to the provos and whether there should be reminders of the atrocities on innocents that took place? And the criminality. Or should that all be treated as water under the bridge? Clearly if people are aware of all that, and comparing to everyone else they think SF are the best option, then they're absolutely entitled to their opinion and their vote.

Listening to a lot of the commentary and interviews there are good people in all parties and I wonder if all party government would work?

I think it will be
Darragh O;Brien
Louise O;Reilly
Duncan Smity
Joe O;Brien
Lorraine Clifford lee.

That could be a good shout. Although would have a bit of doubt as to whether Clifford-Lee would have enough support.

Most commentators are saying the first 4 are dead certs and the last one is between Farrell and Clifford-Lee. Possible Reilly if Farrell's insurance escapades cause FG voters to switch to him. That'll be regarded as a 2-3 right-left split.

Personally I think FG voters are in a bit of a bind with their poor candidate choice. They could really have done with a new face. But they've made their bed and they could face a wipe out. I think many will jump ship to Green / Joe O'Brien. And that could see a 1-4 right/left split. Although environment in this country isn't a left/right debate (thankfully), we're pretty much all aware enough to realise it impacts all.

That's a long winded way of saying I predict a surprise for the 5th seat. Mulligan or Murphy. Murphy's ex-FG, so might benefit from the poor FG candidates, but probably Mulligan would be more likely.

eh i dunno

lawred2 wrote: »

what's the change?

Less retail units and more houses and apartments than was originally planned

squawker

seagull wrote: »

James Reilly has pretty much pissed away any chance of first choice votes from Lusk.

Reilly not only gorged himself at the trough, he swallowed the whole effin' thing

martinn123

Well here's my prediction, based on a detailed survey ( I just listened to the banter, really ) of the lads and lassies in Top Shop last evening

Massive surge in Fingal for Sinn Fein, one seat
Collapse in support for Fine Gael.zero
Fianna Fail one seat DOB
Labour scrape in one seat
Green Party hold on to recent victory in bye election.
Big scrap for the last seat, can't call it.

So however you support, do turn out and vote, weather looks like it may be bad, so light the fire, watch Ireland beat Wales at 2.15, go and vote, then celebrate with a pint.

RobFowl

Of the 2 Fine Gael candidates, James Reilly is by far the best.
He was screwed and limited by the massive cuts during his time in health and was not allowed purse Universal insurance as had been planned.
He made many mistakes as well but did the best he could at a time of massive crisis.
I'll be giving him a preference and will only be giving Farrell a very low one so I can go through the card to leave Gemma OD out !

cruizer101

RobFowl wrote: »

I'll be giving him a preference and will only be giving Farrell a very low one so I can go through the card to leave Gemma OD out !

When planning how I will vote I decided a few of the top ones, then put Gemma in last and Alan 15th before arranging the rest in the middle somewhere.

The Rooster wrote: »

There seems little doubt that SF are gaining huge traction among younger voters. I wonder if these people are aware of what exactly SF's link were to the provos and whether there should be reminders of the atrocities on innocents that took place? And the criminality. Or should that all be treated as water under the bridge? Clearly if people are aware of all that, and comparing to everyone else they think SF are the best option, then they're absolutely entitled to their opinion and their vote.

I think its a case that many want a change and see them as a viable alternative and as you say younger voters maybe don't know of their history.
There is some stuff they put forward that I agree with but given their history I can't give them a high preference. And oddly find myself hoping the younger voters won't actually turn out to vote, I really am getting old.