Election 2020 Fingal Constituency

Wishbone Ash

blue note wrote: »

.... I'd never trust them to make a decision based on what was right. It will always be down to how it will affect their popularity....

I think you're confusing FG with FF.

Wishbone Ash

carltonleon wrote: »

I just don’t get it....if i’m not mistaken Louise O’Reilly doesn’t even live in Fingal, she lives in Dublin 12 I think yet she tops the poll in Fingal .... WTF is that about ???

I'm pretty sure the ballot sheet gave her address as 'Skerries' but I'm open to correction.

Uriel.

Wishbone Ash wrote: »

I'm pretty sure the ballot sheet gave her address as 'Skerries' but I'm open to correction.

Either way I don't think she is cut out for governing. Genuinely hope she's not in the mix for Minister for Health portfolio.
She hasn't left Union politics behind.

carltonleon

Wishbone Ash wrote: »

I'm pretty sure the ballot sheet gave her address as 'Skerries' but I'm open to correction.

It would appear you are right as just checked her website but i’m nearly certain that for the last election her address was D12 but again I’m open to correction on that so maybe she moved in the interim or maybe I’m completely wrong (and not for the first time) on that.

blue note

Wishbone Ash wrote: »

I think you're confusing FG with FF.

Very easy to confuse the two. They're basically the same.

Wishbone Ash

Uriel. wrote: »

....She hasn't left Union politics behind.

I met with her several times in trade union matters (sitting at the opposite side of the table). I wouldn't have any time for her politics but on a personal level, she was very engaging and likeable and quite pleasant to deal with.

Wishbone Ash

carltonleon wrote: »

.... maybe she moved in the interim or maybe I’m completely wrong (and not for the first time) on that.

It may be a 'letterbox' address if you know what I mean.

Wishbone Ash

blue note wrote: »

Very easy to confuse the two. They're basically the same.

Eh - no.

Remember the FF giveaway election of 1977? The abolition of rates as a populist gimmick which led to a massive slowdown of the building of social housing and the start of the homeless crisis.

cruizer101

carltonleon wrote: »

I just don’t get it....if i’m not mistaken Louise O’Reilly doesn’t even live in Fingal, she lives in Dublin 12 I think yet she tops the poll in Fingal .... WTF is that about ???

She does live in skerries, at last elections she was in D12 but said she was planning to move to skerries and did actually move shortly after.
I'm no fan of her but to be fair she is local.

carltonleon

cruizer101 wrote: »

She does live in skerries, at last elections she was in D12 but said she was planning to move to skerries and did actually move shortly after.
I'm no fan of her but to be fair she is local.

Ah right!!! At least it proves I’m not going lampy, I knew I read she lived in D12 somewhere!!!

thequarefellow

You don't have to live in the constituency that you seek to represent. I grew up in Cork North central and have been keeping an eye on things there. Fine Gael's Colm Burke is a solicitor living in a leafy suburb on the south side of Cork but stood for election (and will be voted in :rolleyes:) in the very working class area of the north side of Cork. I don't get it either

pinkypinky

Joe O'Brien is originally from Cork too.

Louise O'R definitely lives in Skerries now - I did some campaigning in the Repeal referendum and I remember her coming in from there to canvass under the Together for Yes umbrella.

I didn't give FG any votes because I didn't like the personalities but looking at the state of play, maybe a mid-preference party vote for them would have been better. 20/20 hindsight!

thequarefellow

pinkypinky wrote: »

Joe O'Brien is originally from Cork too.

Louise O'R definitely lives in Skerries now - I did some campaigning in the Repeal referendum and I remember her coming in from there to canvass under the Together for Yes umbrella.

I didn't give FG any votes because I didn't like the personalities but looking at the state of play, maybe a mid-preference party vote for them would have been better. 20/20 hindsight!

We have possibly the least likeable FG candidates in the country. I know, many don't agree with me when it comes to Alan Farrell but, what can you do? It honestly makes me think more about cheating the system myself.

lawred2

pinkypinky wrote: »

Joe O'Brien is originally from Cork too.

Louise O'R definitely lives in Skerries now - I did some campaigning in the Repeal referendum and I remember her coming in from there to canvass under the Together for Yes umbrella.

I didn't give FG any votes because I didn't like the personalities but looking at the state of play, maybe a mid-preference party vote for them would have been better. 20/20 hindsight!

I knew there was something innately likable about him

King of Kings

I hoping tony murphy gets a shot...my #1 is finally going to some use after years of never getting a look in.

Having dealt with my TDs via email i have had decent engagement with darragh obrien and alan farrell.

olestoepoke

Tony murphy made big gains on the 6th count

carltonleon

Yeah looks like it will come down to the wire between Murphy and Smith alright. Smith may get a good number of transfers from Mulville but all to play for

Murphy needs to keep ahead of Mulligan and probably be ahead of Smith before Mulligans votes are distributed. You would have to think most of his votes would go towards Mulligan.

A tough task for Murphy but putting up a great run.

cruizer101

Would love to see them both pass Alan Farrell but I'm sure James Reilly's votes will keep him in.
It will come down to Mulligans transfers (so long as Murphy stays in front) to decide who gets through.

Big transfer from Kelleher to Mulligan moving him less than a hundred ahead of Murphy. Nobody else elected yet.

Paul Mulville (SD) 3,226 to be distributed now. Probably more left leaning before the elimination of Reilly & Clifford-Lee might sway it back again.

King of Kings

I love the counting process

Bad for murphy in count 7 mulligan right up with him

Hopefully better transfers from reilly and clifford lee...cant see too many of them going to clare dalys fella mulligan....but smith prob get a good share of those two.

Up to date figures

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/results/#/national/dublin-fingal

carltonleon

Mulligan has now overtaken Smith in 5th place with both O'Brien's elected.
Mulligan appears to be very transfer friendly and looks favourite to get the 5th seat now. Farrell will get enough transfers from Reilly to make sure he is safe and Smith will probably go back into 5th after both Reilly's and Clifford-Lee's votes are redistributed but then Mulligan should get enough of Murphy's to catapult him back into 5th place in the final reckoning, at least that is my take on it.

Wishbone Ash

James Reilly being interviewed on TV at the moment. Strangely he's attributing the decline of FG's support to many own goals scored during the campaign.

Wishbone Ash

Has also announced that he is bowing out of public life.

The Rooster

carltonleon wrote: »

Mulligan has now overtaken Smith in 5th place with both O'Brien's elected.
Mulligan appears to be very transfer friendly and looks favourite to get the 5th seat now. Farrell will get enough transfers from O'Reilly to make sure he is safe and Smith will probably go back into 5th after both O'Reilly's and Clifford-Lee's votes are redistributed but then Mulligan should get enough of Murphy's to catapult him back into 5th place in the final reckoning, at least that is my take on it.

It's a fascinating race!

Farrell is 4,082 away from the quota and Reilly has 3,503 votes to distribute. It'll be interesting to see if he's as transfer friendly as he would be without the controversy he's had.

If he only gets say 1,000 from Reilly, then when Clifford-Lee and whoever is third from Mulligan/Smith/Murphy gets eliminated, there's probably not too may transfers going Farrell's way.

He should still make it, and I can't call between the other 3, but it could be very tight!

Beasty

Would not be surprised to see Murphy and Smith leapfrog Farrell and Mulligan

I think they are both transfer friendly while the other two are not (except for any Farrell gets from Reilly)

Beasty

Clifford-Lee out. Farrell still needs 1,800 or so but I'm struggling to see where he's going to get that many from

cruizer101

Farrell got over 2000 from James Reilly he is sadly safe I think at this stage.
I don't see anyone else reaching quota, they will get in just by being the remaining candidates.

Cloudio9

Beasty wrote: »

Clifford-Lee out. Farrell still needs 1,800 or so but I'm struggling to see where he's going to get that many from

He doesn't need to make the quota. He just needs to be in 4th or 5th when the last candidate is eliminated

Cloudio9

I think Smith will get the final seat.

Murphy seems to be a soft-left, labour type candidate so should transfer well to Smith.

carltonleon

The Count 10 results are in:

Alan Farrell (FG) 9,754
Dean Mulligan (I4C) 6,447
Tony Murphy (IND) 5,838
Duncan Smith (LAB) 7,135

Tony Murphy's votes being distributed now .....
Duncan Smith is 688 votes ahead which should probably see him safe ...

Beasty

Farrell is guaranteed a seat now, even if he picks up nothing from Murphy

thequarefellow

Beasty wrote: »

Farrell is guaranteed a seat now, even if he picks up nothing from Murphy

unbelievable

Beasty

And it looks like Smith has taken the last seat by 170 from Mulligan

Unshelved

According to RTE -
"After the last count and Smith is 170 votes ahead of Mulligan. Returning officer will go back to distribute the surplus of Joe O'Brien - 146 - to see if the gap changes."

I'd say it'll go to a recount.

Uriel.

Unshelved wrote: »

According to RTE -
"After the last count and Smith is 170 votes ahead of Mulligan. Returning officer will go back to distribute the surplus of Joe O'Brien - 146 - to see if the gap changes."

I'd say it'll go to a recount.

Some legal advice being sought too I heard.

Hopefully Smith hangs on

appledrop

Uriel. wrote: »

Some legal advice being sought too I heard.

Hopefully Smith hangs on

I hope so too. I did say that Mulligan was hoovering up the transfers. His campaign annoyed me as some literature said he was a social worker+ others a social care worker. There two different jobs how could someone not know what their job is? +

eh i dunno

Smith now elected

Inquitus

Glad to see Smith got the final seat for Labour ahead of Clare Daly's acolyte Mulligan

Inquitus

Inquitus wrote: »

Darragh O'Brien
Joe O'Brien
Louise O'Reilly
Duncan Smith
Alan Farrell

My punt for who'll get elected and in what order, won't be the way I am voting though!

Picked 5/5 not in the right order though!

LeoB

Inquitus wrote: »

Picked 5/5 not in the right order though!

Only got 4 myself. Some very good predictions in the thread.

Not surprised with Louise O'Reilly, Darragh O'Brien or Joe Green.

Delighted for Duncan Smith. Disgusted FG got a seat. Would vote for Worzel Gummage before either Farrell or Reilly.

Balbriggan missed a great opportunity with Tony Murphy missing out so narrowly. A few I spoke didn't vote for him for no particular reason. Contrast that with Farrell who canvassed very heavily in Malahide Portmarnock. I was shocked he got in but there ya go.

Possibly another bit of scandal to hit NCD soon. Keep the gossip mongers busy. I wont be contributing to it!!

RobFowl

LeoB wrote: »

Possibly another bit of scandal to hit NCD soon. Keep the gossip mongers busy. I wont be contributing to it!!

Ah you can't leave us hanging !!!

LeoB

RobFowl wrote: »

Ah you can't leave us hanging !!!

Unfortunately I have to. Heard a rumour the other night and it was confirmed to me at weekend. But I haven't heard it officially and until I do I couldnt risk saying anything.

The Rooster

I wonder is it the rumour that apparently many young voters weren't aware of, and many olders one had just blocked from their minds, that most SF TDs supported the IRA atrocities carried out and the murdering or maiming of so many innocent men, women and children because they were in the wrong place at the wrong time, they spoke to the wrong people, or they were just plain protestant.

Or is it that people have now read the publicly available papers / documents from the "Cash for Ash" scandal up north, where SF minister Ó Muilleoir had to seek permission from Ted Howell, Padraic Wilson and Martin Lynch (an unelected republican high council ) to make any decisions, and that Mary Lou will be subject to the same high council when she takes up a position of power.

The only reason for voting SF rather than Green, SD or Labour is because you fell for the bull about free stuff that someone else will pay for.

LeoB

The Rooster wrote: »

I wonder is it the rumour that apparently many young voters weren't aware of, and many olders one had just blocked from their minds, that most SF TDs supported the IRA atrocities carried out and the murdering or maiming of so many innocent men, women and children because they were in the wrong place at the wrong time, they spoke to the wrong people, or they were just plain protestant.

Nothing like that at all. Our establishment will do all they can to keep SF out of power, did you ever wonder why? What have they to hide? Our young people are intelligent enough and if they went by our media the FG cartel would have been returned in a landslide. Thankfully they debated in various places and what SF had was a connection to people FG never had. Fresh in the memory is swing gate, insurance claims, roaming charges etc.

I would say you delusional if you think most SF TDs supported atrocities. Some were not born when these events took place or were still very young. It is convenient to bring up and not include the atrocities perpetrated by loyalist murders squads aided by British forces by they Paras,MI 5, RUC, UDA. Did you ever hear of the Glenann gang? The Miami massacre? etc.
While there is still republican splinter groups we cant hold SF responsible for them all. There have been splits in republican movement from day one. SF in the republic are a completely different party to the north where there are still huge problems in some areas.
Every atrocity was avoidable and hopefully over time there will be a proper international commission to deal with them.

I had the pleasure to speak to Ivan Cooper around the time of Good Friday agreement about life in Derry and Belfast during the 60s and 70s, do you remember you could'nt get a civil service job if you were catholic? or get into a trade in H & W? Remember Aiden McAnespie shot going to a GAA match.
Nobody stood up for catholics or nationalists during the pogroms of 69 and despite the efforts of many good people to keep protests peaceful marchs for housing etc were attacked by protestants and security forces.

The Rooster wrote: »

Or is it that people have now read the publicly available papers / documents from the "Cash for Ash" scandal up north, where SF minister Ó Muilleoir had to seek permission from Ted Howell, Padraic Wilson and Martin Lynch (an unelected republican high council ) to make any decisions, and that Mary Lou will be subject to the same high council when she takes up a position of power.

Sinn Fein in the north are still defending people in Belfast. Housing in some parts is strictly for protestants and a Belfast cllr has had his social media closed such was the stuff he was posting, not to mention turning up a meeting of Belfast city council in his band uniform, imagine if that was a SF rep in combats! Are you aware of the links to U.V.F and drug trade in Belfast?
Who really gives the orders to FF/FG? Big business Id say. Lets start with looking at the family tree of the Tainaiste, his links and various family roles in big business and media. Id say before any decision is taken by FG/FF they are talks with their unelected executives in party HQ.

The Rooster wrote: »

The only reason for voting SF rather than Green, SD or Labour is because you fell for the bull about free stuff that someone else will pay for.

The reason for voting SF and for other was to get change. People are sick of the status quo which is delivering nothing for families who are struggling but the people we had in power were so far removed from reality they couldnt see it and wouldnt listen, they were not allowed.

koutoubia

Good points Leo.
That poster is also forgetting how FFG are conviently not acting on the atrocities that happened in Mother and Baby homes in Tuam and Bessboro where mass graves of dead babies exist.
I am not defending Republican or Loyalist murders but all parties have questions to answer that they would prefer to be asked.

LeoB

koutoubia wrote: »

Good points Leo.
That poster is also forgetting how FFG are conviently not acting on the atrocities that happened in Mother and Baby homes in Tuam and Bessboro where mass graves of dead babies exist.
I am not defending Republican or Loyalist murders but all parties have questions to answer that they would prefer to be asked.

Agree. We only know a small bit about what went on in Tuam, Bessboro and other state institutions be they industrial schools, orphanages or magdalane laundries

We could dig up hundreds of atrocities from the north on both sides. A lot of which could have been avoided. We can go back to hundreds of scandals we know about in the republic, that is the ones we were told about. The cover ups that went on. Like How come so few got jail for the banking crisis? The ones who did get jail didnt get long enough.

Our young voters know this and were made aware of a lot of things that went on in early 2000s in the run up to the elections by going around various forums and hearing various debates.

As I said above we need to move on. We were given a message loud and clear for change. Whether SF will get the opportunity to deliver remains to be seen but they will have to deliver.

ThunbergsAreGo

LeoB wrote: »

The reason for voting SF and for other was to get change. People are sick of the status quo which is delivering nothing for families who are struggling but the people we had in power were so far removed from reality they couldnt see it and wouldnt listen, they were not allowed.

True and the reason I didn't vote for them is I think their policies are unachievable, populist and will harm the country.

Also while they have some decent people that poor seems extremely shallow with some of the revelations about their candidates since. I think the treatment of Hoolahan in comparison to some elected TDs since very poor form.

Nothing to do with their past. Other alternatives to FFG out there

RobFowl

ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »

True and the reason I didn't vote for them is I think their policies are unachievable, populist and will harm the country.

Also while they have some decent people that poor seems extremely shallow with some of the revelations about their candidates since. I think the treatment of Hoolahan in comparison to some elected TDs since very poor form.

Nothing to do with their past. Other alternatives to FFG out there

FWIW health is particular interest of mine and one where i have a degree of expertise. SF's policies here are more achievable and actually better funded and mindful of the resources available than either FG or FF's.
Thats my 2 cents worth and i would traditionally be a Labour supporter.