Election 2020 Sligo/Leitrim

Necro

Don't see a thread on this so said I'd start one if that's ok.

How do people see the election faring out from our own Sligonian/Leitronian/etc perspective?

The messing about with candidates will probably hit FG hard I reckon, one seat at the absolute max and that might be pushing it.

FF probably taking two seats again I'd reckon, McSharry and one of Scanlon/Ellis.

4th seat might be interesting though, maybe even 2 of the 4 seats will be a dogfight.

None of the candidates appeal to me at all if I'm honest, so I'm very undecided on who to vote for right now.

prodsc

1 FF
1SF
1 Ind (Harkin)
1 FG

is my betting at the moment!

Likely to be a very interesting election here though.

worlds goodest teecher

If their not pushing environmental and social issues, they are not getting my vote.

ddarcy

I see FF retaining both seats. SF retraining theirs and Harkin pipping the FG Seat. Reason being FG is running no one worth noting.

Now things could change in 3 weeks time, but that’s my initial thought of what will happen. Obviously things can change either way.

Gipo3

1 Ind (Harkin to top poll)
2 FF
1 FG

Buford T Justice

Why should we vote for them, when they don't vote for us in the Dail? Elected representatives that have the neck to ask us to vote for them yet they abstain on every vote in the house?

If I decided that I didn't want to do my job I wouldn't last very long.

Disgraceful

Pretzill

I know who I won't be voting for and I haven't a clue who I will. But health, crime, homeless crisis and environment are the top issues for me - which means I will be dissapointed after someone I didn't vote for becomes a backbencher and has no persuasion either way.

23 years in Sligo and not one candidate I voted for got in. The FF & FG brigade has little competition.

Buford T Justice

Pretzill wrote: »

I know who I won't be voting for and I haven't a clue who I will. But health, crime, homeless crisis and environment are the top issues for me - which means I will be dissapointed after someone I didn't vote for becomes a backbencher and has no persuasion either way.

23 years in Sligo and not one candidate I voted for got in. The FF & FG brigade has little competition.

Exactly. We keep swapping one for the other and hoping things will change. FG are still trotting out the line that "this was what FF did, we're just dealing with it"

They've been in power since 2011 and they've only made things worse on all counts.
Not to worry, we have a wonderful election campaign of finger pointing about how its everyone else's fault about the shit state of things to look forward to. The Children's hospital and the bloody printer tells us that self preservation is more important, and no one is to be held accountable for anything.

Lend us your votes and we'll look after you - yeah, as if.

Necro

For people saying Harkin will get in, may I ask why?

She topped the poll in 2002 alright but then fecked off to Europe.

Maybe my head is in the sand with regards her but I genuinely don't recall one issue - local or national she has been involved in that would make me vote her.

shanec1928

Necro wrote: »

For people saying Harkin will get in, may I ask why?

She topped the poll in 2002 alright but then fecked off to Europe.

Maybe my head is in the sand with regards her but I genuinely don't recall one issue - local or national she has been involved in that would make me vote her.

she walked the euros. id be shocked if she dosnt take a seat.

ddarcy

Necro wrote: »

For people saying Harkin will get in, may I ask why?

She topped the poll in 2002 alright but then fecked off to Europe.

Maybe my head is in the sand with regards her but I genuinely don't recall one issue - local or national she has been involved in that would make me vote her.

I think it’s down to the fact that there is a seat for FG, but FG is not running anyone worthwhile. It could also pan out that FG voters don’t like Leo and this is a way to keep a FG type seat and give the two fingers to Leo.

Necro

shanec1928 wrote:

she walked the euros. id be shocked if she dosnt take a seat.

I understand that but I'm trying to figure whether she's worth my vote or not. She's been in politics 18 years and I don't know of one thing tangible she's done either nationally or locally.

ddarcy wrote:

I think it’s down to the fact that there is a seat for FG, but FG is not running anyone worthwhile. It could also pan out that FG voters don’t like Leo and this is a way to keep a FG type seat and give the two fingers to Leo.

That's fair. The FG candidates are a mess, they should have just ran a second nomination process when the two selected dropped out.

I find this area is a bastion for FF tbh though, everything was forgiven from the crash in 2016 with two TDs from here and I just... I can't ever vote them while remnants of that bonfire remain.

So if Harkin takes a seat I'd be hoping it's one of theirs, Scanlon barely crept across the line last time out

sligolad1

Harkin, Kenny and McSharry to get the first three seats. The fourth seat is the one to watch - will be a dogfight between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael with Scanlon, Feighan, Ellis and Walsh all vying to get over the line. Can't see any of the other candidates challenging for a seat if I'm being honest.

sligojoek

Walsh has the most posters up so far. They're really pushing him.

Necro

sligolad1 wrote:

Harkin, Kenny and McSharry to get the first three seats. The fourth seat is the one to watch - will be a dogfight between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael with Scanlon, Feighan, Ellis and Walsh all vying to get over the line. Can't see any of the other candidates challenging for a seat if I'm being honest.

I'd agree with this, though I am perplexed still about Harkins popularity.

Depends on who goes when for the last seat imo, with FF running three it wouldnt surprise me to see them sneak the last seat but it's by no means a foregone conclusion

Black Bart

There are some 'cute hoors' in this election this time around , I see Harkin topping the poll with MacSharry coming in a handy 2nd, and it will be up in the air with the rest of Indep's.

People have not forgotton how both FF, FG and LAB pis*ed on the people during the Save Our Cancers Services campaign, Walsh FG hasn't a hope as nobody really knows him or his policies, Scanlon FF will fail miserably, Perry Ind hasn't a hope. I believe that the recent 'Perry gate scandal' was nothing short of a PR stunt to promote the John Perry campaign.

Over the past few weeks we had people calling to the door canvassing on behalf of different election hopefuls, however, when you question them on their Masters policies they haven't a clue on how to answer, they think that stuffing some election literature through your front is going to make you vote for who they represent!! :rolleyes::rolleyes:

littlejp

Black Bart wrote: »

There are some 'cute hoors' in this election this time around , I see Harkin topping the poll with MacSharry coming in a handy 2nd, and it will be up in the air with the rest of Indep's.

People have not forgotton how both FF, FG and LAB pis*ed on the people during the Save Our Cancers Services campaign, Walsh FG hasn't a hope as nobody really knows him or his policies, Scanlon FF will fail miserably, Perry Ind hasn't a hope. I believe that the recent 'Perry gate scandal' was nothing short of a PR stunt to promote the John Perry campaign.

Over the past few weeks we had people calling to the door canvassing on behalf of different election hopefuls, however, when you question them on their Masters policies they haven't a clue on how to answer, they think that stuffing some election literature through your front is going to make you vote for who they represent!! :rolleyes::rolleyes:

Can you elaborate on the cute hoors comment? Not defending them, just genuinely don't know their history.

I'm not voting for any of the cnuts! You only ever see them begging for votes at election time and you don't see them for dust after!
I don't need to hear crap about 'its your duty to vote',I care as much about them as they do about me!

Pretzill

zorro2566 wrote: »

I'm not voting for any of the cnuts! You only ever see them begging for votes at election time and you don't see them for dust after!
I don't need to hear crap about 'its your duty to vote',I care as much about them as they do about me!

I feel the same - They haven't even come canvassing where I am.
However I'm not going to let them make me apathetic, I will probably vote for just for one candidate. (I know who I won't be voting for...so it's a very short feild)

Gipo3

zorro2566 wrote: »

I'm not voting for any of the cnuts! You only ever see them begging for votes at election time and you don't see them for dust after!
I don't need to hear crap about 'its your duty to vote',I care as much about them as they do about me!

I don't get this rubbish. Why would they be looking for votes when there is no election?
Surely you should be begging them to do something for you?

MY BAD

Ivan Yates on Newstalk this evening called it for Harkin, Kenny, Mcsharry, and Scanlon...

You wouldn't need a crystal ball to predict the chosen few. Was Yates listening to Ocean FM?

https://www.oceanfm.ie/2020/02/01/podcast-who-will-be-the-4-tds-elected-to-sligo-leitrim/

An interesting commentary by well seasoned pundits. Fast forward to 40 mins if you want commentary on the predictions.

Joe Comiskey Predictions

McSharry to top polls
Kenny
Harkin
Scanlon

Dark Horse: Walsh

Paschal Mooney Predictions

Harkin to top polls
McSharry
Kenny
Scanlon

Dark Horse: Perry

Necro

I don't think Scanlon will get in tbh. He barely got over the line the last time and FF pushing on with the three candidate strategy again hurts him.

The time he had Leitrim to himself he topped the poll (for some reason unbeknownst to me).

It'll be Harkin, Kenny, McSharry (unfortunately in all 3 cases) and the last seat will be a tough battle that is too hard to call imo.

Indeed there could well be a few twists in the tale. The transfers are going to be very interesting. Ocean FM will no doubt have excellent coverage as the story unfolds.

Scanlon was previously elected largely on SF transfers? Somewhere in the commentary the remark is made "people are hungry for change", but I cant see that happening unfortunately.

Necro

I agree, Ocean FM are phenomenal the effort and detail they put into the coverage. It's compelling listening/viewing (live streaming from the website can be fun at times)

Necro

Ameer Quick Tenor wrote: »

Scanlon was previously elected largely on SF transfers?

Yeah iirc he picked up a decent amount of the Kenny surplus which nudged him over the line. Could happen again I suppose? You'd imagine the Leitrim candidate would get them but that's not what happened last time so who knows

Gipo3

Gipo3 wrote: »

I don't get this rubbish. Why would they be looking for votes when there is no election?
Surely you should be begging them to do something for you?

Thats me convinced then! Still have no intention of voting!

Necro

Necro wrote:

Yeah iirc he picked up a decent amount of the Kenny surplus which nudged him over the line. Could happen again I suppose? You'd imagine the Leitrim candidate would get them but that's not what happened last time so who knows

Actually to counter this, Scanlon was also the beneficiary of a huge transfer from Perry's elimination last time out.

While that may still happen I'm not sure if Perry will transfer the same volume of votes this time out, it might be a more personal vote, and likely won't be even close to enough.

Buford T Justice

zorro2566 wrote: »

Thats me convinced then! Still have no intention of voting!

If you're not going to use your democratic vote to influence the election then you can't complain about the state of the country.

If you don't care, then use your ballot and preferences to punish some of the candidates

lotsobear

Cannot understand MacSharrys and Scanlons popularity. Scanlon is unheard of between elections and Marc seems to just get into roaring matches with the like of Pat Rabbit and the Healy Reas.

Necro

lotsobear wrote:

Cannot understand MacSharrys and Scanlons popularity. Scanlon is unheard of between elections and Marc seems to just get into roaring matches with the like of Pat Rabbit and the Healy Reas.

Whilst I agree, as evidenced from the local elections there is a very strong cohort of staunch FF voters in the county of Sligo in particular. It's very hard to see them not retaining one seat if not the two.

I'd say the exact same for Harkin tbh who I expect to romp home.

This area sadly has no capable politicians unfortunately.

Makes the choice somewhere between a giant douche or a turd sandwich.

Buford T Justice

Buford T Justice wrote: »

If you're not going to use your democratic vote to influence the election then you can't complain about the state of the country.

If you don't care, then use your ballot and preferences to punish some of the candidates

Did I complain about the state of the country? The state of the cnuts that are running more like,fcuk them!

Necro

zorro2566 wrote:

Did I complain about the state of the country? The state of the cnuts that are running more like,fcuk them!

Would you not like to see a change though instead of complaining about them.

You can do that with your vote, it's the only tool you have to show your disdain for the current incumbents.

Shouting about how useless they are and then doing nothing to change that is wasting your own time tbh.

I always look to David McSavage for advice at election time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjl8OIZijjY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b-23L4NMKjM

Mint Sauce

zorro2566 wrote: »

Thats me convinced then! Still have no intention of voting!

Spoil it then. Either write None Of The Above. Or add a box at the bottom, tick that, and write Me beside it. Vote will still be counted, but as a spoiled one. Or an X through the whole thing.

Buford T Justice

zorro2566 wrote: »

Did I complain about the state of the country? The state of the cnuts that are running more like,fcuk them!

No, I was just making a point.

Necro

Necro wrote: »

Would you not like to see a change though instead of complaining about them.

You can do that with your vote, it's the only tool you have to show your disdain for the current incumbents.

Shouting about how useless they are and then doing nothing to change that is wasting your own time tbh.

Got a wall to paint on Saturday so I'm going to watch that dry!

Pretzill

I vote for the same one candidate number 1, for I don't know how many elections and my vote never seems to make a difference. This is over 20 years now and I am puzzled to see four (including the one I vote for) of the same politicians still being voted in or not voted for. But this time around I cannot understand how Marian Harkin will walk another election, her running in the first place just smacks of greed - and pensions.

It really is time for some new politics this side of the country.

I don't know much about Marian Harkin or her politics, but she gives me the impression that if she's on a mission, and she believes in it, she wont stop until she gets it. Where others might back off half-way?

I'd also guess that she'd pull a big "gender vote" as they say nowadays. However I'm saying that reluctantly as I find it somewhere close to sexist to be calling it so.

And of course where is the opposition? It seems that any new independent is on a loser unless they have a previously acquired strong vote base from whatever source.

I've been voting for losing candidates all my life and will probably continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

sligojoek

Harkin and McSharry are on "The Tonight show" On VM1 now.

Mervyn Skidmore

This ballot paper has to be up there with the least inspiring in the country. My prediction is Harkin, MacSharry, Kenny, and a dog fight for the last seat which I reckon Scanlon will get. Scanlon might lose his seat though.

Necro

McSharry is an insufferable arsehole of the highest order... not that it matters unfortunately, he'll walk in

muffler

Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »

the last seat which I reckon Scanlon will get. Scanlon might lose his seat though.

You cant loose with a prediction like that

Mervyn Skidmore

muffler wrote: »

You cant loose with a prediction like that

😂 You're right. I'm 90% sure he'll keep it but i just think Perry entering the race has thrown the South Sligo vote a bit. I actually expect Perry to get a reasonable enough vote which will have a fairly severe impact on Scanlon. At the same time, when Perry is eliminated i expect a decent amount of transfers to Scanlon. I suppose what I'm trying to say is if you're a betting man keep your euros in your pocket. ðŸ˜

sligojoek

Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »

This ballot paper has to be up there with the least inspiring in the country. My prediction is Harkin, MacSharry, Kenny, and a dog fight for the last seat which I reckon Scanlon will get. Scanlon might lose his seat though.

I said something similar after reading the list on Ocean FM site. Harkin and those with parties will be elected. None of the other independents would be able to russle up a canvassing team to cover the whole constituency.

I don't get the love for MH. I read her flyer the other day. An awful lot of populist stuff about what should be done. No solutions. She'll be getting No1 from my MIL solely because she's a woman. Same as The 2 Marys.

I had to laugh at Perry's posters. The diamond shaped ones, except they were diamond shaped till he cut the "Fine Gael" bit off the bottoms

Necro wrote: »

McSharry is an insufferable arsehole of the highest order... not that it matters unfortunately, he'll walk in

I've had the pleasure of being out in "Shoot's Lane" smoking with him a few times. To be avoided.

Necro

sligojoek wrote:

I don't get the love for MH. I read her flyer the other day. An awful lot of populist stuff about what should be done. No solutions. She'll be getting No1 from my MIL solely because she's a woman. Same as The 2 Marys.

It's the same with every independent and yet we elect a raft of them nationally. They have no answers because they do not know how to govern, but are very good at hurling sh1te from the ditches at those that do.

That 5G one is a crackpot lunatic altogether, she won't be getting anything from me anyways.

It's easier to rule out who I'm not voting for than who I actually am though tbh!

Fair play to Ocean FM. This year they will be providing an Exit Poll for Sligo-Leitrim from 10pm Saturday.

"...results to be made known immediately, and broadcast, after the closing of the polls at 10pm Saturday night. It’s the first time ever such an exit poll has been undertaken in the constituency".

https://www.oceanfm.ie/2020/02/07/general-election-2020-sligo-leitrim-exit-poll/

worlds goodest teecher

Not one candidate called to my apartment. A vote lost for them I'm afraid.

sligojoek

Ameer Quick Tenor wrote: »

Fair play to Ocean FM. This year they will be providing an Exit Poll for Sligo-Leitrim from 10pm Saturday.

"...results to be made known immediately, and broadcast, after the closing of the polls at 10pm Saturday night. It’s the first time ever such an exit poll has been undertaken in the constituency".

https://www.oceanfm.ie/2020/02/07/general-election-2020-sligo-leitrim-exit-poll/

I don't listen to the station that often but to be fair, they do a great job on elections.

Pretzill

worlds goodest teecher wrote: »

Not one candidate called to my apartment. A vote lost for them I'm afraid.

One (not them, their team) called out to me - they only made the effort on behalf of someone else...but I still will vote. (not necessarily for them)