Election 2020 Sligo/Leitrim

Its been posted here in case anyone wants to see it
https://www.reddit.com/r/ireland/comments/f188u2/slight_bitterness_from_this_independent_l/

An interesting exercise:

Says I should vote Kenny.

http://www.whichcandidate.ie/events/8/constituencies/45/candidates

shanec1928

https://twitter.com/OceanFmIreland/status/1226613222058463232

howareyakid

Expecting this count to go on for some time yet. Lots of candidates very close together after the first count and transfers will be crucial.

Pretzill

It will be interesting to see where Kenny's surplus will go. Harkin tipped to do well from it.

Pretzill

Pretzill wrote: »

It will be interesting to see where Kenny's surplus will go. Harkin tipped to do well from it.

I heard that all right, but I don't get it. I thought his would go mostly left. MH likely to not get much of a share of town votes?

Sky News reporting;
"Sinn Fein wants to exclude Ireland's major political parties, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, from a new coalition government, its president Mary Lou McDonald has said"

When did ML say that?

howareyakid

Think Harkin will be a beneficiary as well as Ellis and other Leitrim-based candidates.

I'd say Gino will get a fair slice of Kennys town transfers.

Necro

Pretzill wrote: »

It will be interesting to see where Kenny's surplus will go. Harkin tipped to do well from it.

Seems so though I can't quite understand it.

If Scanlon doesn't do well he could very well be in trouble, the SF transfers helped him hugely last time out

shanec1928

Ameer Quick Tenor wrote: »

I heard that all right, but I don't get it. I thought his would go mostly left. MH likely to not get much of a share of town votes?

Sky News reporting;
"Sinn Fein wants to exclude Ireland's major political parties, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, from a new coalition government, its president Mary Lou McDonald has said"

When did ML say that?

was today. But taking out of context. Preference of a left government. But would talk to ever party

Necro

Ameer Quick Tenor wrote: »

I'd say Gino will get a fair slice of Kennys town transfers.

Those town transfers may eventually find their way to Harkin imo

Through Gino, through Bree and onto Harkin... maybe.

As Kevin Keegan once said - 'I would love it if she was beaten, love it'

Necro

Necro wrote: »

Those town transfers may eventually find their way to Harkin imo

Through Gino, through Bree and onto Harkin... maybe.

As Kevin Keegan once said - 'I would love it if she was beaten, love it'

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

howareyakid

Might be a fair few plumper votes in there for Kenny also!

howareyakid

Kenny Surplus
Bree +378
Conway +172
Cosgrove +84
Ellis +173
Feighan +119
Gallagher +166
Harkin +490
McSharry +178
McCloskey +40
McWeeney +48
O'Boyle +637
O'Donnell +9
O'Dwyer +11
Perry +39
O'Hara +49
Scanlon +109
Walsh +49
Wynne +147

sligojoek

Harkin in 2nd place ahead of McSharry now'

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/results/#/national/sligo-leitrim

howareyakid

Twelfth Count. Quota: 12,037
Distribution of Ellis's 3,398 votes

Marian Harkin (Ind): 10,123 (+444)
Marc McSharry (FF): 9,146 (+1,091)
Eamon Scanlon (FF): 8,093 (+722)
Frank Feighan (FG): 6,851 (+527)
Thomas Walsh (FG): 5,649 (+62)
Declan Bree (I4C): 3,661 (+75)
Gino O'Boyle (Sol/PBP): 3,515 (+37)

Non-Transferable Papers: 440

O'Boyle eliminated so the next count consisting of the distribution of his 3,515 votes.

Pundits saying back to the polls at Easter. Any comments on that?

Can Feighan overtake Scanlon?

howareyakid

Think it's going to come down to eliminations. If Walsh is eliminated, it won't be good for Scanlon. If Bree gets around 2,100 of O'Boyle's transfers, he could overtake Walsh which would be good for Scanlon. But that's a big ask.

As for an Easter election, I couldn't say. They're saying the next government could be an unstable one but we'll have to wait and see!

Necro

Doubt it will be Easter but by summer imo yeah we'll be back again.

Feighan odds on to take Scanlon's seat now I reckon.

Necro

howareyakid wrote: »

Think it's going to come down to eliminations. If Walsh is eliminated, it won't be good for Scanlon. If Bree gets around 2,100 of O'Boyle's transfers, he could overtake Walsh which would be good for Scanlo. But that's a big ask.

As for an Easter election, I couldn't say. They're saying the next government could be an unstable one but we'll have to wait and see!

Can't see 2k+ transfers moving to Bree - that's over 50% of his full vote, and a lot of that came from transfers

O'Boyle only polled 1746 first preferences, there's no way in hell he sends 2100 total to Bree

howareyakid

Oh no, no way. A lot will go to Bree though. Can't see many of O'Boyle's votes going to FF or FG. Feighan in pole position for the last seat I'd say.

Necro

I think Bree will get 1200/1300 transfers alright. Harkin likely a sizeable portion too as she's gaining big numbers from everyone.

If Harkin gets elected before Walsh is eliminated, Feighan has the seat I reckon.

If not, most likely Scanlon takes the seat but there will likely be a recount, I'm expecting it anyways tbh

Necro

Also good to see involvement on this thread folks

Sometimes I feel our constituency gets overlooked in the national and main threads, possibly because of the... ahem... calibre of our political representatives.

McSharry taking the sizeable FF transfer from Ellis ruined Scanlon. As I said before, when Scanlon was given Leitrim he topped the poll in 07, since then he's been scrapping for the last seat. Bad party management all to suit the lad from Sligo town imo.

Pretzill

I think Scanlon is more likely to take the final seat - I'm surprised Feighan is close too (I wouldn't have expected that. I would love all of O'Boyles transfers to go to Bree but that's not going to happen - SF, Ind, 2 FF is about all the change that comes from Sligo/Leitrim.

ETA: Of course Feighan will benefit from his running mates transfers.

Pretzill

And RTE just went over to Eileen in Sligo and there's no sound

ETA: They went back to Eileen - I agree we seem to be under represented on the main coverage but it's taking almost two whole days and there is still only 1 candidate elected. I think they are more inclined to show fhe faster moving constituencies...

howareyakid

Sligo/Leitrim Thirteenth Count.
Quota: 12,037
Distribution of O'Boyle's 3,515 votes

Marian Harkin (Ind): 10,834 (+711)
Marc McSharry (FF): 9,300 (+154)
Eamon Scanlon (FF): 8,193 (+100)
Frank Feighan (FG): 6,952 (+101)
Thomas Walsh (FG): 5,733 (+84)
Declan Bree (I4C): 5,292 (+1,631)

Non-Transferable Papers: 734

Necro

Hmmmm...

Can Harkin get 1300 votes from Bree's transfers? Could decide the last seat if she does.

is_that_so

howareyakid wrote: »

Sligo/Leitrim Thirteenth Count.
Quota: 12,037
Distribution of O'Boyle's 3,515 votes

Marian Harkin (Ind): 10,834 (+711)
Marc McSharry (FF): 9,300 (+154)
Eamon Scanlon (FF): 8,193 (+100)
Frank Feighan (FG): 6,952 (+101)
Thomas Walsh (FG): 5,733 (+84)
Declan Bree (I4C): 5,292 (+1,631)

Non-Transferable Papers: 734

Would that not favour FG for a final seat?

howareyakid

Necro wrote: »

Hmmmm...

Can Harkin get 1300 votes from Bree's transfers? Could decide the last seat if she does.

I think she'll go very close to it.

Necro

is_that_so wrote: »

Would that not favour FG for a final seat?

Geography may hurt the FG transfer to Feighan, if Harkin gets elected off Bree's transfers it's probably FG's seat