Election 2020 Sligo/Leitrim

howareyakid

Harkin's people not expecting her to reach the quota on the next count.

Necro

That being said, if it is Walsh's transfers that elects Harkin that would more likely go back to Feighan in any surplus right?

howareyakid

Necro wrote: »

That being said, if it is Walsh's transfers that elects Harkin that would more likely go back to Feighan in any surplus right?

Not sure about that. Suppose it depends on how far over the quota she may be. If she wasn't far over the quota it might not have too much of a bearing.

Necro

According to Ocean FM, Harkin will be elected from Bree's transfers now.

Unofficial word yet but strong indications it will happen.

That's Scanlon in serious serious trouble as Harkin would have gobbled up parts of Walsh's transfers due to geography

Pundits talking as if Feighan has it in the bag. Harkins Tally counters called Feighan at 4pm. (Last local election FG/TMcL tally watchers called Maguire about 6 or 7 hours before she was confirmed. Must have seen Cosgroves tickets). Still seems like a big enough upset if Feighan gets in?

Pretzill

I think it would be an upset if Feighan gets in - they are saying Harkin won't exceed the quota by much so it's unlikely to be distributed and it would seem likely Harkin is more of a FG leaning vote - but I still think geographically Scanlon might hang on -

Necro

Gap is just over 1200 between them now, I can see Feighan getting maybe 1400 of a transfer, possibly 1500.

Depends what goes to Scanlon as well - what is against Scanlon as well is that Walsh's South Sligo vote wasn't very big, and you have to think the transfers he got from Perry would mainly be a pure FG vote

howareyakid

Scanlon is currently 1,241 ahead of Feighan by my calculations. After Bree's distribution, you wouldn't expect that to be too much different so it's looking like Feighan will have to pick up something in the region of 1,300 to pass Scanlon - not including whatever extra Scanlon gets from Walsh's transfers.

howareyakid

Projected Transfers from Bree's Surplus:
Feighan +279
Harkin +2,161
McSharry +588
Scanlon +215
Walsh +240

This would give Harkin a surplus of 858.

Necro

Harkin elected

Not gone on that tbh, but that's democracy

howareyakid

Sligo/Leitrim Fourteenth Count:
Distribution of Bree's 5,292 votes

Quota: 12,037

Marian Harkin (Ind): 12,995 (+2,161)
Marc McSharry (FF): 9,891 (+591)
Eamon Scanlon (FF): 8,409 (+216)
Frank Feighan (FG): 7,231 (+279)
Thomas Walsh (FG): 5,975 (+242)

Non-Transferable Papers: 1,803

ELECTED: Marian Harkin (Ind)

howareyakid

Necro wrote: »

Harkin elected

Not gone on that tbh, but that's democracy

Seems like a good representative to me but I wouldn't really know that much about her really.

howareyakid

howareyakid wrote: »

Seems like a good representative to me but I wouldn't really know that much about her really.

She was MEP since 2004, so no recent regional profile to talk of.

sligojoek

Will Walsh get Feighan over the line now?

Mervyn Skidmore

sligojoek wrote: »

Will Walsh get Feighan over the line now?

I'd say so.

Necro

howareyakid wrote: »

Seems like a good representative to me but I wouldn't really know that much about her really.

Well she withdrew from Europe due to medical reasons but now she's fit to stand for the Dail.

Guess the lure of a triple pension (teacher's, MEP, Dail) was too much

howareyakid

sligojoek wrote: »

Will Walsh get Feighan over the line now?

Seems to be a done deal.

Necro

Reported transfers:

Feighan +3459

Scanlon + 907

That's that then folks.

Might be of interest:

Last week odds on SF/FF Gov was 9/2, yesterday was 2/1.

Here's the latest odds:

FF/SF/Green 2/1

FF/SF/Independents 7/1

Fianna Fail/Sinn Fein 7/1

FF/FG/Green 10/1

Fine Gael/Fianna Fail 11/1

FF/SF/Green/Labour/SD 12/1

howareyakid

Projected Walsh Distribution
McSharry (FF): +843 (10,734)
Feighan (FG): +3,459 (10,690)
Scanlon (FF): +907 (9,316)

This will elect McSharry and Feighan without reaching the quota.

El Weirdo

Conway ranting on Facebook that the Champion are doing some sort of hatchet job on him by reporting that he called voters imbeciles in his deleted Facebook post. Says it's because he wouldn't pay €600 to advertise with them.

The only difference I can see between the deleted post and what's quoted in the Champion is that the words are actually spelled correctly in the Champion.

Buford T Justice

Aah, I see now.

His rant wasn't aimed at the 1354 people who gave him their first preference vote, (or 1767 after transfers) Instead it was aimed at the remaining 59326 voters who didn't do so. Yeah that make so much more sense. All is forgiven

Damn you media in your attempt to brainwash me. I'm too smart for that now, thanks to Mr. Conway

Necro

El Weirdo wrote:

Conway ranting on Facebook that the Champion are doing some sort of hatchet job on him by reporting that he called voters imbeciles in his deleted Facebook post. Says it's because he wouldn't pay €600 to advertise with them.

He's also posted a GoFundMe page to raise funds to sue them for slander.

The funny thing is this though, the article he's referring to was actually posted today in the Sligo Weekender.

It's actually embarrassing he polled over 1000 votes tbh, his antics got tiresome after his first attempt at 'public meetings' after his Apple video went viral.

rizzodun

The comment section on that post would make you cringe.

Dope.

El Weirdo

Necro wrote: »

He's also posted a GoFundMe page to raise funds to sue them for slander.

It appears to have been taken down.

howareyakid

I know it’s very easy to come on and criticise everything and much, much more difficult to actually achieve anything in politics. But I have to say, Conway did speak quite well at times in the Ocean FM debate.

The betting market is changing daily.


FF/FG/Green 7/4 fav (was 10/1)

FF/SF/Green 5/1 (was 2/1)

FF/FG/Independents 14/1 (no previous odds)

SF/SD/Lab/Green/PBP 16/1 (no previous odds)

Fine Gael/Fianna Fail 18/1 (was 11/1)

FF/SF/Independents 20/1 (was 7/1


Next Taoiseach:

Martin 2/5

McDonald 2/1 (was 11/1 on Monday )

Varadkar 14/1