Limerick City General Election

Gael23

Any predictions? Would love to see Maria Byrne hold Noonans seat?

Poxyshamrock

Gael23 wrote: »

Any predictions? Would love to see Maria Byrne hold Noonans seat?

I couldn’t think of anything worse.

Her comments in the LL yesterday completely backfired

Cookiemunster

Maria Byrne hasn't a chance IMO. Kieran O'Donnell will take that seat and return to the Dail.

More than likely Maurice Quinlivan will retain his seat, although the drop in support for SF and the fact that both Frankie Daly and Brian Leddin are going in his Northside base could mean he doesn't get in as easily as the last time.

Willie O'Dea will again top the poll and it will be interesting to see where his surplass will go as that will decide the fourth seat. He has a personal vote rather than a FF vote, so he doesn't usually transfer well to his FF running mates, but if they play it right he could get James Collins over the line.

Gael23

Poxyshamrock wrote: »

I couldn’t think of anything worse.

Her comments in the LL yesterday completely backfired

What did she say? I didn’t see it

Cookiemunster

Gael23 wrote: »

What did she say? I didn’t see it

Even though FG have been in power for 9 year, she tried to blame FF for the trolly crisis.

s7ryf3925pivug

Why are all the wing nut candidates teachers? [Wing nuts by my definition being Aon tu and Re Nua.]

It's a bit confusing trying to see who is actually running because some parties still have their rosters up for the council elections, and don't have their national candidates up yet.

I've heard that the Greens want to annihilate rural Ireland. Which is obviously hyperbole, if not completely untrue. They do say silly things sometimes but they won't really ban cars from villages and set packs of wolves on us. [I am in a rural area that is part of the Limerick City constituency.] If Breandain MacGabhainn runs I would vote for him anyway... Anyone know who their candidate/s are? Brian Leddin?

Jan O'Sullivan is nice. She appears in all sorts of good places without making it a publicity stunt. Good places being community activism to improve mental health services and some protests for something progressive - don't remember which one. Might vote for her.

Willie O'Dea is the local Mr Fixit, but with lots of clout. Not necessarily ideal in some ways that he has such a local focus when he is involved at national level. But he is super helpful and accessible in a way most politicians really aren't.

Jenny Blake is the social democrats candidate. Apparently she's very well known but I haven't heard of her.

s7ryf3925pivug

Poxyshamrock wrote: »

I couldn’t think of anything worse.

Her comments in the LL yesterday completely backfired

Did people not care about sconegate very much then?

Cookiemunster

@ Blergh.
Currently announced candidates are:-

Fianna Fáil - Willie O'Dea & James Collins
Fine Gael - Kieran O'Donnell & Maria Byrne
Labour Party - Jan O'Sullivan
Sinn Féin - Maurice Quinlivan
Social Democrats - Jenny Blake
Green Party - Brian Leddin
Independent - Frankie Daly
National Party - Rebecca Barrett
Aontú - Michael Ryan

s7ryf3925pivug

the wing nut - teacher thing holds up:

rebecca barrett - primary school teacher
Michael Ryan - school principal

Mc Love

James Collins should do well to get in and maybe Brian Leddin of the new candidates

keane2097

I'll vote for whichever candidate puts transphobes in a gulag. Very disappointed this promise has been broken after the local elections.

s7ryf3925pivug

keane2097 wrote: »

I'll vote for whichever candidate puts transphobes in a gulag. Very disappointed this promise has been broken after the local elections.

defo soc dems. The party of choice for lgbt+ for sure. Lesbian candidate. Trans members. Even use purple as their colour. As my father said, purple is a very homosexual colour.

Gael23

Poxyshamrock wrote: »

I couldn’t think of anything worse.

Her comments in the LL yesterday completely backfired

Will the Byrne family support along with Noonans backing not see her through?

keane2097

Erin Squeaking Noblewoman wrote: »

defo soc dems. The party of choice for lgbt+ for sure. Lesbian candidate. Trans members. Even use purple as their colour. As my father said, purple is a very homosexual colour.

We were told the Green Party were the party of the transphobe gulag before the local elections but these appear to be broken promises. May swing over to the SDs.

damowill

Willie normally tops the poll, but I think you could throw a blanket over the next 5: Kieran O'Donnell (FG), Maurice Quinlivan (SF), Brian Leddin (Greens), Jan O' Sullivan (LAB) and James Collins (FF) for the remaining 3 seats so transfers will be key

johnnyryan89

Cookiemunster wrote: »

More than likely Maurice Quinlivan will retain his seat, although the drop in support for SF and the fact that both Frankie Daly and Brian Leddin are going in his Northside base could mean he doesn't get in as easily as the last time.

Maurice Quinlivan will be doing well to retain his seat, if he does lose his seat then it's a big blow for SF in Limerick.

His support in Limerick North has definitely dwindled. Frankie Daly has picked up some of his support since John Costello replaced him in the council and Brain Leddins strong showing will make it an interesting election for Northside based politicians.

keane2097

I would have thought there'll be plenty of votes to get one FG (O'Donnell) and Quinlivan returned along with Willie obviously topping the poll. Of the rest you would think the Greens will be very transfer friendly this time around.

Cookiemunster

keane2097 wrote: »

I would have thought there'll be plenty of votes to get one FG (O'Donnell) and Quinlivan returned along with Willie obviously topping the poll. Of the rest you would think the Greens will be very transfer friendly this time around.

Transfer friendly among younger voters, but older voters (the ones who actually turn out) won't for for more taxes.

Personally I don't think that he'll get enough first preference votes to be still in the race when it comes to the final seat. The Greens got around 5% of the FPv in Limerick at the locals. Leddin needs above 10% after the first count to be in with a shout. I don't see that jump appearing.

OfTheMarsWongs

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Transfer friendly among younger voters, but older voters (the ones who actually turn out) won't for for more taxes.

Personally I don't think that he'll get enough first preference votes to be still in the race when it comes to the final seat. The Greens got around 5% of the FPv in Limerick at the locals. Leddin needs above 10% after the first count to be in with a shout. I don't see that jump appearing.

Can only speak for myself but am siding towards giving Greens 1 this time and Jan 2. Gave Jan the 1 the last two times.

s7ryf3925pivug

Are there any specific positions people are interested in?

For me:
Impose solid fuel ban nationwide (Follow the UK model)
Improve situation in UHL (probably everyone would list this)
Improve mental health services

Someone threatened a lot of papers with legal action to drop the story about the guy with the broken neck in UHL to try to bury it. Word has it it was a particular popular party that doesn't want to be held accountable for the situation.

Every candidate is going to say they want to fix it, but the big parties have zero credibility with it at this stage imo.

Gael23

OfTheMarsWongs wrote: »

Can only speak for myself but am siding towards giving Greens 1 this time and Jan 2. Gave Jan the 1 the last two times.

The Greens will tax you to within an inch of your life

s7ryf3925pivug

Gael23 wrote: »

The Greens will tax you to within an inch of your life

FG will kill you with poisonous air. Not even kidding.

topcat72

huge potential battle for that fourth seat - Anyone of Daly, leddin, Quinlivan ( after 1 FF , one FG and presumably 1 Lab)
Daly will do well, but perhaps Quinlivan has better name recognition on a citywide basis.
I'd expect Leddin to be there or very close, he will be transfer friendly.
Not sure why FG went with two candidates, split vote risk there. Willy will prob be as selfish as usual and canvass everywhere, rather than allow his vote to go to Collins.
Qunlivan 's people were out early doing a large door to door on the night after the election was called. My guess is they are slightly worried.

Cookiemunster

topcat72 wrote: »

huge potential battle for that fourth seat - Anyone of Daly, leddin, Quinlivan ( after 1 FF , one FG and presumably 1 Lab)
Daly will do well, but perhaps Quinlivan has better name recognition on a citywide basis.
I'd expect Leddin to be there or very close, he will be transfer friendly.
Not sure why FG went with two candidates, split vote risk there. Willy will prob be as selfish as usual and canvass everywhere, rather than allow his vote to go to Collins.
Qunlivan 's people were out early doing a large door to door on the night after the election was called. My guess is they are slightly worried.

I wouldn't be too sure of Jan O'Sullivan. She was the last one elected in the last two elections, without making the quota either time. Labours pooling is pretty stagnant, so I thinks she'll again be in a fight for the 4th seat.

A lot will depend on Willie O'Deas transfers. In any other constituency his surplus would bring in his running mate, but there are already suggestions (in the Leader) that he's telling people on the doorstep to give their no. 2 to Frankie Daly.

As I explained a few posts up, I don't think that Leddin has any chance.

s7ryf3925pivug

Cookiemunster wrote: »

I wouldn't be too sure of Jan O'Sullivan. She was the last one elected in the last two elections, without making the quota either time. Labours pooling is pretty stagnant, so I thinks she'll again be in a fight for the 4th seat.

A lot will depend on Willie O'Deas transfers. In any other constituency his surplus would bring in his running mate, but there are already suggestions (in the Leader) that he's telling people on the doorstep to give their no. 2 to Frankie Daly.

As I explained a few posts up, I don't think that Leddin has any chance.

Who is Frank Daly and what does he stand for? He doesn't have a personal page and his facebook just has episodic posts so googling didn't reveal an introduction or summary.

Gael23

Byrne was always a poll topper in her area. I know that’s not enough to get her through but I have tremendous respect for her as a person

s7ryf3925pivug

Gael23 wrote: »

Byrne was always a poll topper in her area. I know that’s not enough to get her through but I have tremendous respect for her as a person

Why?

jonski

Erin Squeaking Noblewoman wrote: »

Are there any specific positions people are interested in?

For me:
Impose solid fuel ban nationwide (Follow the UK model)
Improve situation in UHL (probably everyone would list this)
Improve mental health services

I'm really disappointed with myself because I feel all my thoughts, opinions and feelings are negative when it comes to voting .

I said a few years back that as long as Alan Kelly is a candidate for Labour I won't give them a vote ( this is probably irrational but I dislike him that much ).

I feel that FG aren't really representative of me and my situation and I'm not a believer in trickle down economics . Although I am impressed with some of the constitutional issues that have been voted through .

I won't vote Green as I think their core ideology will have me sitting freezing in my house and having to sell my car and try and use Public transport . While I agree with it in principal I could never afford the alternatives .

I think a majority of the population are worried about the unknown of putting SF in Power, myself included .

Renua, Aontú , nope , I have nothing in common with them .

Maybe Soc Dem's , I'll have to have a look into their candidate

FF ..... Lets be honest, for the majority of people in Limerick, a vote for them is actually a vote for Willie . It's hard to argue that the man is approachable, available and ready to dispense advice .


I maybe naive here but I do think both major parties acted responsibly in keeping the government up and running at a very important time for Ireland re: Brexit and bringing the country out of recession .

Mc Love

Why is the support for O'Dea so strong?

s7ryf3925pivug

Mc Love wrote: »

Why is the support for O'Dea so strong?

If you have a problem you can meet him in the pub and he will give advice or direct assistance or direct someone else to advise you as appropriate. He is extremely proactive and helpful.

Poxyshamrock

Erin Squeaking Noblewoman wrote: »

Why?

+1