Limerick City General Election

LC2016

moby2101 wrote: »

Willie has one of the largest surplus votes in Ireland....
Jan, lovely lady will loose .
Fg ran 2 appallingly bad candidates, KOD will get in and the Shinner

Why are they appallingly bad candidates?

un5byh7sqpd2x0

Cookiemunster wrote: »

That (if true) doesn't take away from the point I was making. They're down, but it's most definitely not a backlash.

Actually it’s not true, yesterday was in fact worse than 2002. 22.5 vs 22.4 - 2002 was an absolute shoeing for FG so why wasn’t yesterday a backlash? It’s not as much a backlash as was predicted but it’s still definitely a backlash

Cookiemunster

Kylan Immense Handcuff wrote: »

Actually it’s not true, yesterday was in fact worse than 2002. 22.5 vs 22.4 - 2002 was an absolute shoeing for FG so why wasn’t yesterday a backlash? It’s not as much a backlash as was predicted but it’s still definitely a backlash

Between 2011 and 2016 they went from 36.1% and 76 seats to 25.% and 50 seats. That was a backlash.
This time they've dropped to 2.5% and will lose 5-6 seats. That's not a backlash.

And remember, that those are exit polls, not an actual count.

Back on topic. Maurice Quinlivan, Willie O'Dea and Kieran O'Donnell look home and hosed from the early tallies, with a bit of a dog fight for the 4th seat looking to be on the cards.

mdmix

Not looking terrible so far. Would prefer Leddin, OSullivan or Collins to get 4th seat in that order. BYRNE or Daly would be equally useless so hopefully neither get in.

https://twitter.com/virginmedianews/status/1226468902475091970?s=21

Edit: sorry, I didn’t realise the tweet I pasted was a reply to the Kerry results, see limerick below first tweet.

campo

I can see a lot of Maurice Quinlivan surplus going to Leddin, think he is in with a great shout of getting the 4th seat.

s7ryf3925pivug

campo wrote: »

I can see a lot of Maurice Quinlivan surplus going to Leddin, think he is in with a great shout of getting the 4th seat.

It won't go to O'Donnell or Byrne anyway.

brendanwalsh

Was Daly involved in drugs before somehow ???

Surprised Kieran o donnell is getting in, hes about as useful as shiit on a shovel , now mick noonan is gone the blueshiits had no one to vote for

Cookiemunster

campo wrote: »

I can see a lot of Maurice Quinlivan surplus going to Leddin, think he is in with a great shout of getting the 4th seat.

I'm not sure anyone is going to make the quota, so surpluses will be small when candidates get elected. The transfers of candidates getting eliminated will have more say IMO.

But Quinlivans second preferences are apparently split 50/50 between Frankie Daly and 'The Left' according to the tally, so it wouldn't be a huge help to Leddin anyways.

EDIT forget what I said about nobody making the quota. It's looking to be only around 8900 which below the quota in 2016 and Quilivan and O'Dea look like making it.

Cookiemunster

Final tally with quota expected to be 8907. (according to the Leader)

Maurice Quinlivan (SF) - 10,614

Willie O'Dea (FF) - 8,915

Kieran O'Donnell (FG) -6,305

Brian Leddin (GP) - 3,097

Frankie Daly (IND) - 3,034

s7ryf3925pivug

Where aon tu votes transfer to I wonder? FF?
SD will go to green and labour mainly and SF to a lesser extent imo.
PBP share is tiny but can be assumed to go to SF.
NP even smaller I hope but would go to aon tu I suppose.

s7ryf3925pivug

Barrett 343
Blake 1723
Cahillane 683
Ryan 1520

So adding Quinlivan's surplus, most early transfers will be to leftwing candidates.

c.p.w.g.w

Erin Squeaking Noblewoman wrote: »

Barrett 343
Blake 1723
Cahillane 683
Ryan 1520

So adding Quinlivan's surplus, most early transfers will be to leftwing candidates.

Barrett?

s7ryf3925pivug

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

Barrett?

National Party. Ireland's far right.

s7ryf3925pivug

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Final tally with quota expected to be 8907. (according to the Leader)

Maurice Quinlivan (SF) - 10,614

Willie O'Dea (FF) - 8,915

Kieran O'Donnell (FG) -6,305

Brian Leddin (GP) - 3,097

Frankie Daly (IND) - 3,034

Those figures are slightly low, for Leddin and Quinlivan and presumably others. The final tallies are higher.

Cookiemunster

Erin Squeaking Noblewoman wrote: »

Byrne 2923
Collins 2693
Daly 3041
Leddin 3126
O'Dea 8943
O'Donnell 6336
O'Sullivan 2714
Quinlivan 10651 (wow)

Quinlivan has doubled his first preference vote since 2016, and it's about the same as he amassed when he got over the line on the 5th count (10517) in 2016, so they vote was there the last time, but it's now come to the fore.

O'Dea has dropped nearly 4000 first preference votes, which is a bigger shock IMO.

Mc Love

Has some of O'Deas votes gone to Collins

Eire-Dearg

Delighted for Leddin. I think he could be in trouble though, considering Willie and Kieran's #2s, Quinlivan's could be more split between Leddin and the SDs.

s7ryf3925pivug

Eire-Dearg wrote: »

Delighted for Leddin. I think he could be in trouble though, considering Willie and Kieran's #2s, Quinlivan's could be more split between Leddin and the SDs.

Willie only has a handful of surplus at this time and O'Donnell has not reached the quota.

banie01

brendanwalsh wrote: »

God help the people of limerick city if quinlivan gets in again. I have no respect for the man due to his brother being in the IRA.

I'm no shinner and he didn't get my 1st preference but that's a ridiculous statement.

What calamity will befall Limerick based upon returning a TD who entered Republican politics rather than Republican insurrection?
Is he to be judged upon the actions of his brother during a time that many at the time considered a just war?

He has over the course of the last Dail been a fairly diligent and very hard working TD.

We can't expect the Unionists in NI to work with SF in government, whilst excluding them from Govt in the 26 counties because of the said same blood on their hands.

It's hypocrisy in the extreme.

s7ryf3925pivug

I could see there being a lot of transfers to SD from SF to the extent of putting them into contention. Bit of a lottery really.

Blake would be more suited to SF in her outlook. She does not know her own party's policies and was recruited at the last minute to run for them.

yop

Mod Note: Don't post stuff like this please. Final warning.

s7ryf3925pivug

first count
quota 9226
barrett 345
blake 1799
Byrne 2998
cahillane 701
Collins 2759
daly 3200
leddin 3252
o'dea 9198
o'donnell 6589
O'Sullivan 2729
quinlivan [over 11k]

sioda

Transfers are going to be so important in this. How long since Willie wasn't elected on first count?

easypazz

sioda wrote: »

Transfers are going to be so important in this. How long since Willie wasn't elected on first count?

Noonan 2011.

s7ryf3925pivug

Daly has overtaken leddin 3725 to 3385 on the second count. O'Dea has reached quota. Ryan is lowest remaining followed by Blake.

Cookiemunster

Erin Squeaking Noblewoman wrote: »

Daly has overtaken leddin 3725 to 3385 on the second count. O'Dea has reached quota. Ryan is lowest remaining followed by Blake.

Word from the count (according to the Leader) is that Daly is the main beneficiary of Mary Cahillane's 1008 votes.

s7ryf3925pivug

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Word from the count (according to the Leader) is that Daly is the main beneficiary of Mary Cahillane's 1008 votes.

Looks that way. My wife is at the count so I am getting updates a little ahead of rte etc.

s7ryf3925pivug

count 3.
Daly 4022
Leddin 3538
Think that was Quinlivan's surplus. Ryan still in last place of those not yet excluded.

keane2097

Following the elimination and the transfer of Mary Cahillane and Rebecca Barrett's votes (1,388 in total)



Jenny Blake (Soc Dems) - 1,987 + 480 = 2,467

Maria Byrne (FG) - 3,021 +21 = 3,042

James Collins (FF) - 2,788u + 20 = 2.808

Frankie Daly (Ind) - 3,725 + 297 = 4,022

Brian Leddin (GP) - 3,385 + 153 = 3,538

Kieran O'Donnell (FG) - 6,628 + 33 = 6,661

Jan O'Sullivan (Lab) - 2,838 + 78 = 2,916

Michael Ryan (Aontu) - 1,638 + 177 = 1,860



No candidate elected, Michael Ryan (Aontu) eliminated, and his vote of 1,860 redistributed.

Greens would be hoping to outlast Jenny Blake and get most of those votes I guess.

redved

keane2097 wrote: »

Greens would be hoping to outlast Jenny Blake and get most of those votes I guess.

Yup definitely holding out for Jenny Blakes vote