Limerick City General Election

chicorytip

Cookiemunster wrote: »

I wouldn't be too sure of Jan O'Sullivan. She was the last one elected in the last two elections, without making the quota either time. Labours pooling is pretty stagnant, so I thinks she'll again be in a fight for the 4th seat.

A lot will depend on Willie O'Deas transfers. In any other constituency his surplus would bring in his running mate, but there are already suggestions (in the Leader) that he's telling people on the doorstep to give their no. 2 to Frankie Daly.

As I explained a few posts up, I don't think that Leddin has any chance.

O'Sullivan will be elected, I think, as - despite being a Labour candidate - she has strong support in middle class areas throughout the city. O' Donnell is capable but will probably lose out by a narrow margin again. I don't know why O'Dea even bothers anymore. He is unlikely to be appointed to cabinet if FF are in power.

s7ryf3925pivug

The favourites to be in government after the election are FF and Greens.
SF are unlikely to get into government even if they get a lot of seats.
Aontu and the National Party have no hope.
All the other parties have a chance.

If FF get in then Willie O'Dea is likely to get a post.
I have no idea if Leddin would be in with a shout to get a post if the Greens get in.
Jan O'Sullivan is favourite to be the next leader of Labour Party and would be a safe bet to get a post if Labour get into government.
Blake wouldn't have a chance of a post if the Soc Dems got in.

somespud

Can't see Labour going back into government too soon after the near wipeout last time if they do they may as well disband and join the main parties, Willie might get a post but wouldn't be surprised if he didn't of all the others the best you would expect might be a junior post.

Cookiemunster

chicorytip wrote: »

O'Sullivan will be elected, I think, as - despite being a Labour candidate - she has strong support in middle class areas throughout the city. O' Donnell is capable but will probably lose out by a narrow margin again. I don't know why O'Dea even bothers anymore. He is unlikely to be appointed to cabinet if FF are in power.

FG will definitely get a seat and that's more likely to be O'Donnell than Byrne. As I said above O'Sullivans huge support has seen her only fall over the line in the last two elections. O'Donnell actually got more first preference votes than her last time out. I'm not saying she won't get in, but she will be fighting to keep her seat.

LuasSimon

Aontú will hurt Sinn Fein taking a share of old school Sinn Fein voters not into all this abortion /transgender / travellers rights new Sinn Fein policies . Michael Ryan would be well known on Gaa and Irish music circles . Won’t be elected but could cause quinlivan to lose his seat .

adaminho

LuasSimon wrote: »

Aontú will hurt Sinn Fein taking a share of old school Sinn Fein voters not into all this abortion /transgender / travellers rights new Sinn Fein policies . Michael Ryan would be well known on Gaa and Irish music circles . Won’t be elected but could cause quinlivan to lose his seat .

They wont even make their deposit back!

s7ryf3925pivug

I think their progressive stances have helped Sinn Fein a lot more than they have been hurt by them.

A coalition between them, Labour, the Soc dems, the greens and some independents is not completely unimaginable.

Cookiemunster

adaminho wrote: »

They wont even make their deposit back!

I don't know. He got nearly 800 first preference votes in City East in the locals and hung in there till the 5th or 6th count. He hasn't a hope of getting elected, but he could cause damage to SF.

LuasSimon

adaminho wrote: »

They wont even make their deposit back!

Not sure what you need to get your deposit back but he’ll get 1200-1500 votes many of which would have went to Sinn Fein prior to their hard Pro Abortion- transgender - travellers rights etc etc stance

L1011

Quarter of a quota at time of elimination to get expenses. 1500 is not enough in most constituencies.

un5byh7sqpd2x0

LimerickCity wrote: »

A HUNDRED YEARS OF FF & FG AND THEIR EXCUSES

Basic arithmetic was beyond your abilities at school wasn't it?

Gael23

Yes it appears Byrne is nit going to do very well.

Cookiemunster

Erin Squeaking Noblewoman wrote: »

I think their progressive stances have helped Sinn Fein a lot more than they have been hurt by them.

A coalition between them, Labour, the Soc dems, the greens and some independents is not completely unimaginable.

Missed this earlier. A SF, Labour, Soc Dem, Green and independent coalition would be at least 30 (and probably more) seats short of a majority (and wouldn't last two weeks).

Sinn Fein are going to lose seats this time and the next government is odds on tol be FF and others.

Cookiemunster

L1011 wrote: »

Quarter of a quota at time of elimination to get expenses. 1500 is not enough in most constituencies.

He got his quota back in the locals. I didn't expect him to get anywhere near what he got but there's obviously a conservative republican backlash against SF, so it wouldn't surprise me if he managed the same this time.

As I said earlier, he hasn't a hope of getting elected, but he could do serious damage to SF.

s7ryf3925pivug

Cookiemunster wrote: »

He got his quota back in the locals. I didn't expect him to get anywhere near what he got but there's obviously a conservative republican backlash against SF, so it wouldn't surprise me if he managed the same this time.

As I said earlier, he hasn't a hope of getting elected, but he could do serious damage to SF.

Conservative republicans jump ship. But progressives who don't give a sh!t about republicanism consider voting for them.

s7ryf3925pivug

Cookiemunster wrote: »

Missed this earlier. A SF, Labour, Soc Dem, Green and independent coalition would be at least 30 (and probably more) seats short of a majority (and wouldn't last two weeks).

Sinn Fein are going to lose seats this time and the next government is odds on to be FF and others.

Yeah you're right about that actually.

Cookiemunster

Erin Squeaking Noblewoman wrote: »

Conservative republicans jump ship. But progressives who don't give a sh!t about republicanism consider voting for them.

SFs polling has tanked. They were annihilated at the local elections and polling suggests that they'll lose 4-6 seats this time round.

They're not a progressive party. They're a republican (and pretty much wanna be communist) party before everything else. They just happen to agree with all the other major parties about progressive things (FG of all parties brought the gay marriage and abortion
referendums to the people).

And they're not a democratic party either. If you don't tow the party line you get hounded and bullied. There's been load of resignations from the party by sitting councillors around the country stating this as the reason for their resignations. And there is fairly believable rumours that the IRA in the North are the real leaders of the party rather than Mary Lou.

mdmix

Cookiemunster wrote: »

SFs polling has tanked. They were annihilated at the local elections and polling suggests that they'll lose 4-6 seats this time round.

They're not a progressive party. They're a republican (and pretty much wanna be communist) party before everything else. They just happen to agree with all the other major parties about progressive things (FG of all parties brought the gay marriage and abortion
referendums to the people).

And they're not a democratic party either. If you don't tow the party line you get hounded and bullied. There's been load of resignations from the party by sitting councillors around the country stating this as the reason for their resignations. And there is fairly believable rumours that the IRA in the North are the real leaders of the party rather than Mary Lou.

EDIT Nothing personal meant there. Just got carried away when I started typing about SF......

I won't be voting Sinn Fein because I think Morris is pretty useless, but I do hate when people spew nonsense. your basically said that sinn feinne are communists controlled by the ira. I have a family member (by marriage) in Fianna fail who talks the same way, il go out on a limb and guess you are some way close to the Fianna fail party, if not through membership, through family or friends?

I did a quick google search for sinn Fein policies,
cut to usc on all income under 30k (benefits everyone)
1500 new beds to end trolly crisis (only party to propose how to end the trolley crisis)

not sure about the rest, but these don't seem all that looney. and although there will inevitably be calls like "how will they pay for this?", it's I think its funny how people only ask that when its Sinn Fein and not FF or FG. Varadkar is proposing tax cuts for high income earners and no one is asking how he will pay for this.

Cookiemunster

I've no affiliation with any political party and have pretty much been a floating voter for the last 25 years.

SF are not a democratic party. They're ruled from the top with an iron fist. I've heard members of FF, FG and Labour on the airwaves over recent days make the same claims about the real leadership. Do you honestly believe that Gerry Adams wasn't a leading member of the IRA? The links are obvious

As to FGs fiscal policy, well one of the few things they've been able to right is balance the books, through prudent fiscal policy. SFs is pretty much tax the rich to pay for everything. Ignoring that fact that we already have one of the most progressive tax regimes in the OECD.

LuasSimon

mdmix wrote: »

I won't be voting Sinn Fein because I think Morris is pretty useless, but I do hate when people spew nonsense. your basically said that sinn feinne are communists controlled by the ira. I have a family member (by marriage) in Fianna fail who talks the same way, il go out on a limb and guess you are some way close to the Fianna fail party, if not through membership, through family or friends?

I did a quick google search for sinn Fein policies,
cut to usc on all income under 30k (benefits everyone)
1500 new beds to end trolly crisis (only party to propose how to end the trolley crisis)

not sure about the rest, but these don't seem all that looney. and although there will inevitably be calls like "how will they pay for this?", it's I think its funny how people only ask that when its Sinn Fein and not FF or FG. Varadkar is proposing tax cuts for high income earners and no one is asking how he will pay for this.

You are right about others demeaning Sinn Fein regardless of what they do but all this transgender - abortion - defending traveller crime stuff is alien to those who voted Sinn Fein when no one voted Sinn Fein , a lot of those Sinn Fein voters had strong nationalist views but in many cases were also Catholics , it appears Sinn Fein doesn’t want catholic’s anymore not terribly dissimilar to Fine Gael . Fianna Fáil with their token republican stance and Aontú will take these votes not rocket science .
Sinn Fein might get the 10 transgender votes in Limerick and whatever travellers vote but they will lose 1000 other votes . These tactics will work in areas in Dublin but in Limerick and other outside Dublin constituencies it will make it more challenging for Sinn Fein .

mdmix

Cookiemunster wrote: »

I've no affiliation with any political party and have pretty much been a floating voter for the last 25 years.

SF are not a democratic party. They're ruled from the top with an iron fist. I've heard members of FF, FG and Labour on the airwaves over recent days make the same claims about the real leadership. Do you honestly believe that Gerry Adams wasn't a leading member of the IRA? The links are obvious

As to FGs fiscal policy, well one of the few things they've been able to right is balance the books, through prudent fiscal policy. SFs is pretty much tax the rich to pay for everything. Ignoring that fact that we already have one of the most progressive tax regimes in the OECD.

Gerry was in the ra, Berty took the money, they’re both gone now. Also it’s strange that you seem to think that only Sinn Fein “rule from the top” when senior FG members conspired against whistleblowers over the last few years. I’m not voting Sinn Fein unless they have a decent candidate For limerick, which they dont. Would happily vote for Brian Leddin, as I think he is a good candidate, but I simply cannot as long as Eamonn Ryan is in charge. will prob vote social dems.

Regarding FG, can you name a government department that is not in the midst of a crisis or somewhere between the end of one crises and the start of a new one? Also, Spain and Portugal were in the same boat as Ireland but still managed to get out of it without making the same vicious cuts. Portugal was able to invest in infrastructure also while Leo cut the Dublin metro and M20 rather than at least opting to delay. I also don’t believe FG are financially prudent, the department of health has never stuck to their budget under them the children’s hospital and broadband plan speak for themselves. Add to that that Leo went full Berty this year and said a fall in corporate tax could be offset by a more realisable source like stamp duty on new house sales - which left all economists lost for words. With FG promising more tax cuts this year they have finally gone full Fianna Fáil 2007

Admittedly, NOONAN did a decent job for limerick, but he’s gone now and so is any hope of a Ministerial post with a FGer.

s7ryf3925pivug

I've heard (and believe to be true) that one of the independent councillors elected in the last local elections was rejected by SF because his IRA connection was too strong.

They've made huge gains since moving away from the IRA connection and towards championing progressive causes. Whether that change is superficial rebranding, or a represents a change at the core, I don't know. But one way or another they are doing much better for it and they will benefit overall from getting rid of their more socially conservative members to AonTu. They are currently about level with FG in the polls (1% difference.)

That said, the bookies seem to view them as fairly untouchable in terms of partnerships and seem pretty certain that at least one of FF or FG will be part of the next government.

mdmix

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/election-2020-limerick-city-constituency-profile-1.4144420

Irish times are predicting 1 ff, 1 FG, 1green and 1 Sinn Fein. As long as it’s O’DONNELL and not BYRNE I’d be happy enough with that result. Would prefer if social dems got in ahead of any of the above, but at least it’s somewhat representative

LuasSimon

Erin Squeaking Noblewoman wrote: »

I've heard (and believe to be true) that one of the independent councillors elected in the last local elections was rejected by SF because his IRA connection was too strong.

They've made huge gains since moving away from the IRA connection and towards championing progressive causes. Whether that change is superficial rebranding, or a represents a change at the core, I don't know. But one way or another they are doing much better for it and they will benefit overall from getting rid of their more socially conservative members to AonTu. They are currently about level with FG in the polls (1% difference.)

That said, the bookies seem to view them as fairly untouchable in terms of partnerships and seem pretty certain that at least one of FF or FG will be part of the next government.

Your right its not about a United Ireland for Sinn Fein anymore ,its more rights for Travellers and all other PC gone mad snowflake matters.
Youll have to be a vegan next to be in Sinn Fein.

banie01

mdmix wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/election-2020-limerick-city-constituency-profile-1.4144420

Irish times are predicting 1 ff, 1 FG, 1green and 1 Sinn Fein. As long as it’s O’DONNELL and not BYRNE I’d be happy enough with that result. Would prefer if social dems got in ahead of any of the above, but at least it’s somewhat representative

I think FG if they do hold a seat it will be O'Donnell.
Byrne is to0 much an unknown outside her local ward, those that do know her outside of the ward tend to not like her.
Couple that with her role as a Senator was basically an appointee given how closed the pool of candidates is and the restricted electorate.
The expenses issue at the council and its links back to her family's business won't do her any favours and I'd expect the Soc-Dems to hammer that home as they were the ones who broke it.

Maurice will likely hold his seat as there is a big urban cohort that will vote for him.
SF policies and the party line are very much a central office creation, it is a case of toe the party line or find another party.
I'm not a FF'er or any other political animal, I do however, have good knowledge of how the SF activist, candidate and representative system is controlled.

I think it will be Willie, Maurice and a pick from O'Donnell, Leddin, O'Sullivan for the last 2.

I do have serious concerns that the protest vote this time round will move from FG to the Greens.
The price of needing Green Seats for a coalition will be high, and will result in additional taxation that can be ill-afforded without an immediate improvement in services and infrastructure.
Which is a nigh on impossible ask.

keane2097

I think the Greens' opposition to the M20 will probably hurt them badly in the nearby constituencies.

s7ryf3925pivug

banie01 wrote: »

I think FG if they do hold a seat it will be O'Donnell.
Byrne is to0 much an unknown outside her local ward, those that do know her outside of the ward tend to not like her.
Couple that with her role as a Senator was basically an appointee given how closed the pool of candidates is and the restricted electorate.
The expenses issue at the council and its links back to her family's business won't do her any favours and I'd expect the Soc-Dems to hammer that home as they were the ones who broke it.

Maurice will likely hold his seat as there is a big urban cohort that will vote for him.
SF policies and the party line are very much a central office creation, it is a case of toe the party line or find another party.
I'm not a FF'er or any other political animal, I do however, have good knowledge of how the SF activist, candidate and representative system is controlled.

I think it will be Willie, Maurice and a pick from O'Donnell, Leddin, O'Sullivan for the last 2.

I do have serious concerns that the protest vote this time round will move from FG to the Greens.
The price of needing Green Seats for a coalition will be high, and will result in additional taxation that can be ill-afforded without an immediate improvement in services and infrastructure.
Which is a nigh on impossible ask.

The Greens want to fund their plans by diverting any money allocated to developing new roads, including a planned connection between Limerick and Cork and a planned ring road for Limerick. Their position is that all investment in transport should be for public transport only and not for cars. They also advocate developing concentrated residential areas which offer economy of scale in terms of infrastructure development, and blocking ribbon development and one-off builds for the same reason.

So I don't know how much additional tax revenue they would be looking for, if any. I have reservations about them, not because of taxes, but because they seem a bit out of touch with rural populations. And tbh from a NIMBY PoV, my area would benefit from the roads they want to cancel, and I wouldn't be keen on housing estates being plonked on the fields that are next to my house.

I need to find out more about their plans and priorities. The biggest bang for the buck change they could make for the environment would be to push the solid fuel ban. However the party making noise about that is in fact the Social Democrats, not the Greens.

The indefinite postponement of the national ban on smoky coal is the singular reason why no FG candidate will be anywhere in my list of preferences.

stuckintipp

Michael Ryan of Aontu is an excellent candidate, a man of the highest integrity and would make an excellent representative for Limerick City. He is the Principal of a local national school and well though of by the parents, his reputation within GAA circles is unparalleled. He will represent Limerick city to the best of his ability and will never let anyone down.

FFG, Labour, Greens have all let the country down, put their own interests ahead of the country’s, Give him a chance, you won’t regret it.

keane2097

What's his policy on who should be in charge of women's reproductive systems?

LimerickCity

Kylan Immense Handcuff wrote: »

Basic arithmetic was beyond your abilities at school wasn't it?

We can’t vote Sinn Fein because of their history, but we will happily keep voting in Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil etc despite their histories, despite everything they have ever done to this country, absolute state of that reasoning

People say there is no alternative to FF/FG. There is. Stay at home on February 8th.