Election 2020 Donegal

muffler

Less than a week ago so I'll kick off the predictions.

There's enough of the old guard around to see FF and FG hold seats here. I would expect McConnelogue to do well (possibly a slight increase in his vote) and be elected along with the Cope although I think the Cope will loose votes and will have to endure quite a few counts before crossing the line.

Doherty should top the poll with McLaughlin making it through on the 4th or 5th count at the expense of Pringle.

I think McHugh will struggle a bit but should do enough to hold the seat.

O'Donnell & Harley will probably poll well in their respective areas but wont make the cut.

No harm to the others but I cant see any of them doing well at all.

So, to put my head on the chopping block I'll go with the following and in the order I think they will be elected.

1. Doherty
2. McConnelogue
3. McHugh
4. McLaughlin
5. Gallagher

alchemist33

CastorTroy wrote: »

Seems someone's making it their mission to tear down Niall McConnell posters around Letterkenny. Or it's just a coincidence that I now see blank cardboard or remnants where I saw his posters earlier.
Though due to the photo, I was reading it as "Drain the Dog" which sounded very wrong.

I think his posters are cheap paper on cardboard and can't handle the wet.

And I agree with muffler's prediction above.

GetWithIt

Lord Glentoran wrote: »

There were plenty of the “Drain the Dog” posters around East Inishowen. At least I know who to give my last preference to after voting all the way down the paper...

I kept doing a double take when driving by these. I thought it said “Vote Brian the Dog”.

If so, it would have been a fitting commentary on the available candidates.

byte

CastorTroy wrote: »

Seems someone's making it their mission to tear down Niall McConnell posters around Letterkenny. Or it's just a coincidence that I now see blank cardboard or remnants where I saw his posters earlier.
Though due to the photo, I was reading it as "Drain the Dog" which sounded very wrong.

I see a small irony that his patriotic website isn't a .IE domain, but a .COM registered with an American company. (yes, I really should spend my time more wisely)

I agree with ednwireland, the selection of candidates is poor.

Always Tired

NIMAN wrote: »

I just don't see the logic of the dog being in the picture.

Am I missing something?

It makes him come across as some sort of halfwit. Then again, maybe he is.

I use the same trick on my Tinder profile, works a treat. But I think the oul racism cancels out the cute dog in McConnells case.

retalivity

I think pringle might be a lot closer to cope in a fight for the 5th seat than i would have said 2 weeks ago. Pearse has taken a lot of cope's votes from west donegal, and the prefs could pass to mclochlainn and potentially pringle. He is also the only one running from the south of the county with a chance of a seat. The first 4 and order, id agree with the above.

Pat should really have stood down and retired...whats the point having all those pensions if youre going to work til your nearly 80!

CastorTroy

Always Tired wrote: »

I use the same trick on my Tinder profile, works a treat. But I think the oul racism cancels out the cute dog in McConnells case.

Especially since the dog's part black.

So is Casey campaigning or is he just out to stop McHugh getting in?

RandomViewer

retalivity wrote: »

I think pringle might be a lot closer to cope in a fight for the 5th seat than i would have said 2 weeks ago. Pearse has taken a lot of cope's votes from west donegal, and the prefs could pass to mclochlainn and potentially pringle. He is also the only one running from the south of the county with a chance of a seat. The first 4 and order, id agree with the above.

Pat should really have stood down and retired...whats the point having all those pensions if youre going to work til your nearly 80!

Cope's wife guarantees SF transfers, Pringle won't get any worth

alchemist33

CastorTroy wrote: »

Especially since the dog's part black.

So is Casey campaigning or is he just out to stop McHugh getting in?

Good point. Saw his posters today with McHugh in a dunce's cap. So far, this is the only evidence I've seen of him "getting it done."

Firblog

RandomViewer wrote: »

Cope's wife guarantees SF transfers, Pringle won't get any worth

In 2016 Pringle got more transfers than all the SF candidates put together, and more transfers than Pat the Cope, in seven counts as all the low polling candidates were eliminated. Now that people know that he is the only chance of a TD to be located in the south of the county I think he may poll better than last time.

muffler

Firblog wrote: »

In 2016 Pringle got more transfers than all the SF candidates put together

I'm afraid that isnt correct. You might want to have a look at those results again.

Firblog wrote: »

and more transfers than Pat the Cope, in seven counts as all the low polling candidates were eliminated.

The Cope got elected 2 counts before Pringle so didnt need any more transfers. Pringle got elected without reaching the quota and was the only candidate to do so.

Firblog

muffler wrote: »

I'm afraid that isnt correct. You might want to have a look at those results again.

Duely did and stand corrected only looked up to 7th count, seems it went on quite a bit after that... 2016 count here

muffler

Come on people, dont be shy about posting your predictions.

Pique

Firblog wrote: »

Duely did and stand corrected only looked up to 7th count, seems it went on quite a bit after that... 2016 count here

There's something I didn't know before

Mr Pringle’s supporters who included independent Derry councillor Gary Donnelly, a member of the Thirty Two County Sovereignty Movement which is linked to the Real IRA, cheered and raised Mr Pringle aloft after the result was formally announced around 9pm.

ednwireland

Pique wrote: »

There's something I didn't know before

pringle was a member of sinn fein until he didnt get the ticket for the dail

retalivity

Tirconnail Tribune have a poll up for donegal

https://twitter.com/BarryWhyte85/status/1225135746866085893

JOD with 6.8%, ahead of Pringle, jesus christ

Technique

Is that newspaper based around the Milford area?

Donegal Storm

The Tirconaill Tribune is a local weekly newspaper in County Donegal, Ireland that circulates every Friday. The newspaper's headquarters is in Milford.

Thankfully yes

Firblog

"Just to note, the Tirconaill Tribune poll was taken from a sample of 1,400 people in all areas of the constituency"

NIMAN

Thats the way the 5 seats will go.

No shocks.

Although I'd love to see the racist with the dog get into Leinster House for a bit of craic!

ednwireland

Firblog wrote: »

"Just to note, the Tirconaill Tribune poll was taken from a sample of 1,400 people in all areas of the constituency"

they were outside supervalu donegal town last week with a mock ballot paper asking people to fill it in

NIMAN wrote: »

Thats the way the 5 seats will go.

No shocks.

which is totally depressing

L1011

1,400 is a decent sample size but did they use a polling agency or did they work it out themselves? That would have huge impacts on the quality of the results really.

Would be a Margin of Error of 2 or 3% depending on how good the sampling was if it was done right at all. If they did it themselves and didn't apply basic sampling...

echo beach

L1011 wrote: »

1,400 is a decent sample size but did they use a polling agency or did they work it out themselves? That would have huge impacts on the quality of the results really.

Would be a Margin of Error of 2 or 3% depending on how good the sampling was if it was done right at all. If they did it themselves and didn't apply basic sampling...

It's long time since I studied statistics but margin or error depends on sample size relative to total population involved. There a margin of error of 2-3% in national polls that use a sample size of around 1,400 so it will be much less when only one constituency was polled if, as you say, standard sampling methods were used.
The use of a mock ballot paper gives much more reliable results than asking people what party they intend to vote for.

water-man

Am I reading that poll right - the combined SF vote in Donegal is 42%?

retalivity

Yep, Pearse will probably get about 1.5 quotas on the first count. He might well secure the highest % first prefs in the whole country.

Mclochlainn should bounce back and take pringles seat handily

muffler

water-man wrote: »

Am I reading that poll right - the combined SF vote in Donegal is 42%?

42.8% to be precise. Id be a little sceptical of that figure but then again a previous poll by TG4 put SF on 37% which is probably getting closer to reality in my opinion. I think they will get around 33% - 35% of first preference votes

Lord Glentoran

Pique wrote: »

There's something I didn't know before

I’ll be stopping at my fifth preference then.

[Edit] Ended up voting all the way down the paper when I saw how batschidt crazy Drain The Dog’s Electoral Correspondence was [/Edit]

redt0m

Anyone else getting unsolicited text messages from Letterkenny politicians tonight? Just got one, I won't give them the publicity of saying their name. That's got to be a data breach somewhere.

alchemist33

redt0m wrote: »

Anyone else getting unsolicited text messages from Letterkenny politicians tonight? Just got one, I won't give them the publicity of saying their name. That's got to be a data breach somewhere.

I didn't, but would be raging if I did.

retalivity

redt0m wrote: »

Anyone else getting unsolicited text messages from Letterkenny politicians tonight? Just got one, I won't give them the publicity of saying their name. That's got to be a data breach somewhere.

I got one earlier, no idea where my number was scraped from, and my vote isnt even in donegal anymore. Maybe i had provided it buying something in one of west donegal's co-operative shops...doubtful though

CastorTroy

Didn't get a text but maybe they if they just used a burst text like you get when entering the north or something.

Maybe I'm blind but I don't think I've seen a poster for Pearse anywhere in Letterkenny, outside of being no. 2 on Padraig's posters.

echo beach

CastorTroy wrote: »

Maybe I'm blind but I don't think I've seen a poster for Pearse anywhere in Letterkenny, outside of being no. 2 on Padraig's posters.

There is a vote splitting strategy.Fairly standard when you have two candidates in a large constituency. One candidate gets one part of the constituency and one gets the other. It is probably the part that was in the old North East, including Letterkenny, that has been allocated to McLaughlin.

echo beach

redt0m wrote: »

Anyone else getting unsolicited text messages from Letterkenny politicians tonight? Just got one, I won't give them the publicity of saying their name. That's got to be a data breach somewhere.

Did it offer you the option to opt out of future texts?
Worth reporting to the Data Protection Commissioner. Give them something to do checking it out.

redt0m

echo beach wrote: »

Did it offer you the option to opt out of future texts?
Worth reporting to the Data Protection Commissioner. Give them something to do checking it out.

Nope, no option to opt out. Just this: "Undecided vote **** letterkenny needs a td"

Ekerot

We should've had our own Exit Poll

RandomViewer

redt0m wrote: »

Nope, no option to opt out. Just this: "Undecided vote **** letterkenny needs a td"

John boy or Mary T?

retalivity

I got the option to opt out, which i promptly did

retalivity

Listening to Highland here, Mclochlainn leading O'Donnell (!), McHugh and McConalogue in Inishowen

Doherty out-tallying McLochlainn & McConalogue in Letterkenny

muffler

Listening to Highland also and I'm looking forward to the race for the last seat and possibly the last 2 seats

ednwireland

Independent McConnell said he doesn't expect to get elected

most obvious statement of the day

Lord Glentoran

ednwireland wrote: »

most obvious statement of the day

I gave “Drain the Dog” my number 13 vote. Even the outside of his Litir Um Thogain was insane.

ednwireland

Lord Glentoran wrote: »

I gave “Drain the Dog” my number 13 vote. Even the outside of his Litir Um Thogain was insane.

on the tally
565

wasnt last arthur mcguinness was with 61

Pearse Doherty - 20,909

Padraig MacLochlainn - 13,804

Charlie McConalogue - 8,322

Joe McHugh - 7,613

Pat the Cope - 7,523

Thomas Pringle - 5,459

John O'Donnell - 4,741

Martin Harley - 3,034

Mary Sweeney - 2,373

Michael White - 1,646

Peter Casey - 1,142

Niall McConnell - 565

Arthur McGuinness - 61

muffler

ednwireland wrote: »

on the tally
565 first preference votes

wasnt last arthur mcguinness was with 61

Aren't those tallies and not official results?

ednwireland

muffler wrote: »

Aren't those tallies and not official results?

yep tally count sorry

donegal_man

John O'Donnell 4741! What is wrong with people?

retalivity

alchemist33

Really shoudn't be doing that (if confirmed). But also gives him publicity he doesn't deserve.

Nollog

Probably the same person who's been destroying his posters. I've seen a few balled up in ditches next to the stupid wooden signs by the road side.
I doubt wind balls posters up.

muffler

Doherty & MacLochlainn both elected on the first count a few minutes ago.

Id imagine that would wrap up the count for tonight.

NIMAN

muffler wrote: »

Doherty & MacLochlainn both elected on the first count a few minutes ago.

Id imagine that would wrap up the count for tonight.

Was there any other constituency where 2 candidates were elected on the 1st count?