Election 2020 Donegal

muffler

Firblog wrote: »

In 2016 Pringle got more transfers than all the SF candidates put together

I'm afraid that isnt correct. You might want to have a look at those results again.

Firblog wrote: »

and more transfers than Pat the Cope, in seven counts as all the low polling candidates were eliminated.

The Cope got elected 2 counts before Pringle so didnt need any more transfers. Pringle got elected without reaching the quota and was the only candidate to do so.

Firblog

muffler wrote: »

I'm afraid that isnt correct. You might want to have a look at those results again.

Duely did and stand corrected only looked up to 7th count, seems it went on quite a bit after that... 2016 count here

muffler

Come on people, dont be shy about posting your predictions.

Pique

Firblog wrote: »

Duely did and stand corrected only looked up to 7th count, seems it went on quite a bit after that... 2016 count here

There's something I didn't know before

Mr Pringle’s supporters who included independent Derry councillor Gary Donnelly, a member of the Thirty Two County Sovereignty Movement which is linked to the Real IRA, cheered and raised Mr Pringle aloft after the result was formally announced around 9pm.

ednwireland

Pique wrote: »

There's something I didn't know before

pringle was a member of sinn fein until he didnt get the ticket for the dail

retalivity

Tirconnail Tribune have a poll up for donegal

https://twitter.com/BarryWhyte85/status/1225135746866085893

JOD with 6.8%, ahead of Pringle, jesus christ

Technique

Is that newspaper based around the Milford area?

Donegal Storm

The Tirconaill Tribune is a local weekly newspaper in County Donegal, Ireland that circulates every Friday. The newspaper's headquarters is in Milford.

Thankfully yes

Firblog

"Just to note, the Tirconaill Tribune poll was taken from a sample of 1,400 people in all areas of the constituency"

NIMAN

Thats the way the 5 seats will go.

No shocks.

Although I'd love to see the racist with the dog get into Leinster House for a bit of craic!

ednwireland

Firblog wrote: »

"Just to note, the Tirconaill Tribune poll was taken from a sample of 1,400 people in all areas of the constituency"

they were outside supervalu donegal town last week with a mock ballot paper asking people to fill it in

NIMAN wrote: »

Thats the way the 5 seats will go.

No shocks.

which is totally depressing

L1011

1,400 is a decent sample size but did they use a polling agency or did they work it out themselves? That would have huge impacts on the quality of the results really.

Would be a Margin of Error of 2 or 3% depending on how good the sampling was if it was done right at all. If they did it themselves and didn't apply basic sampling...

echo beach

L1011 wrote: »

1,400 is a decent sample size but did they use a polling agency or did they work it out themselves? That would have huge impacts on the quality of the results really.

Would be a Margin of Error of 2 or 3% depending on how good the sampling was if it was done right at all. If they did it themselves and didn't apply basic sampling...

It's long time since I studied statistics but margin or error depends on sample size relative to total population involved. There a margin of error of 2-3% in national polls that use a sample size of around 1,400 so it will be much less when only one constituency was polled if, as you say, standard sampling methods were used.
The use of a mock ballot paper gives much more reliable results than asking people what party they intend to vote for.

water-man

Am I reading that poll right - the combined SF vote in Donegal is 42%?

retalivity

Yep, Pearse will probably get about 1.5 quotas on the first count. He might well secure the highest % first prefs in the whole country.

Mclochlainn should bounce back and take pringles seat handily

muffler

water-man wrote: »

Am I reading that poll right - the combined SF vote in Donegal is 42%?

42.8% to be precise. Id be a little sceptical of that figure but then again a previous poll by TG4 put SF on 37% which is probably getting closer to reality in my opinion. I think they will get around 33% - 35% of first preference votes

Lord Glentoran

Pique wrote: »

There's something I didn't know before

I’ll be stopping at my fifth preference then.

[Edit] Ended up voting all the way down the paper when I saw how batschidt crazy Drain The Dog’s Electoral Correspondence was [/Edit]

redt0m

Anyone else getting unsolicited text messages from Letterkenny politicians tonight? Just got one, I won't give them the publicity of saying their name. That's got to be a data breach somewhere.

alchemist33

redt0m wrote: »

Anyone else getting unsolicited text messages from Letterkenny politicians tonight? Just got one, I won't give them the publicity of saying their name. That's got to be a data breach somewhere.

I didn't, but would be raging if I did.

retalivity

redt0m wrote: »

Anyone else getting unsolicited text messages from Letterkenny politicians tonight? Just got one, I won't give them the publicity of saying their name. That's got to be a data breach somewhere.

I got one earlier, no idea where my number was scraped from, and my vote isnt even in donegal anymore. Maybe i had provided it buying something in one of west donegal's co-operative shops...doubtful though

CastorTroy

Didn't get a text but maybe they if they just used a burst text like you get when entering the north or something.

Maybe I'm blind but I don't think I've seen a poster for Pearse anywhere in Letterkenny, outside of being no. 2 on Padraig's posters.

echo beach

CastorTroy wrote: »

Maybe I'm blind but I don't think I've seen a poster for Pearse anywhere in Letterkenny, outside of being no. 2 on Padraig's posters.

There is a vote splitting strategy.Fairly standard when you have two candidates in a large constituency. One candidate gets one part of the constituency and one gets the other. It is probably the part that was in the old North East, including Letterkenny, that has been allocated to McLaughlin.

echo beach

redt0m wrote: »

Anyone else getting unsolicited text messages from Letterkenny politicians tonight? Just got one, I won't give them the publicity of saying their name. That's got to be a data breach somewhere.

Did it offer you the option to opt out of future texts?
Worth reporting to the Data Protection Commissioner. Give them something to do checking it out.

redt0m

echo beach wrote: »

Did it offer you the option to opt out of future texts?
Worth reporting to the Data Protection Commissioner. Give them something to do checking it out.

Nope, no option to opt out. Just this: "Undecided vote **** letterkenny needs a td"

Ekerot

We should've had our own Exit Poll

RandomViewer

redt0m wrote: »

Nope, no option to opt out. Just this: "Undecided vote **** letterkenny needs a td"

John boy or Mary T?

retalivity

I got the option to opt out, which i promptly did

retalivity

Listening to Highland here, Mclochlainn leading O'Donnell (!), McHugh and McConalogue in Inishowen

Doherty out-tallying McLochlainn & McConalogue in Letterkenny

muffler

Listening to Highland also and I'm looking forward to the race for the last seat and possibly the last 2 seats

ednwireland

Independent McConnell said he doesn't expect to get elected

most obvious statement of the day