GE2020 *Mod Note in First Post*

LuckyGent88

Why is Clare so slow in counting these votes?

Same thing every election.

As someone from the outside looking in, the lack of support for the two FG candidates is very clear. They contributed nothing to Clare and they were just seats on the backbench with no influence.

We really need to get people into more powerful positions

Clareman

LuckyGent88 wrote: »

Why is Clare so slow in counting these votes?

Same thing every election.

As someone from the outside looking in, the lack of support for the two FG candidates is very clear. They contributed nothing to Clare and they were just seats on the backbench with no influence.

We really need to get people into more powerful positions

If there's 2 FF candidates elected and FF are in power Dooley is almost guaranteed a full minister role

jackboy

LuckyGent88 wrote: »

As someone from the outside looking in, the lack of support for the two FG candidates is very clear. They contributed nothing to Clare and they were just seats on the backbench with no influence.

They are a complete and utter waste of space. Conway I thought was a good candidate and worth a shot but he polled badly also.

Mal-Adjusted

from talking to people at the count centre, it looks like it could go a number of ways. Roumer has it that V A-W isn't transfer friendly at all, M MC is very transfer friendly and that the 3 FG candidates will need to transfer extremely well to get a quota at all! it should all come down to when some of the bigger candidates are eliminated, but with 280 votes between 5th and 7th (according to the tallies), no wonder it's taking so long!

Clareman wrote: »

If there's 2 FF candidates elected and FF are in power Dooley is almost guaranteed a full minister role

Not a hope. You need to prove your worth, which means bringing your running mate over the line. at the moment it looks like the opposite.

LuckyGent88

Clareman wrote: »

If there's 2 FF candidates elected and FF are in power Dooley is almost guaranteed a full minister role

Don’t think so after all his voting shenanigans. Crowe will nearly have a better chance after the wave of support he has garnered

ger664

Clareman wrote: »

If there's 2 FF candidates elected and FF are in power Dooley is almost guaranteed a full minister role

Dooley wont get a position as he is out of favour and needed to top the poll today to have any chance.

ger664

First Count

Surname First Party Vote
Wynne Violet-Anne (SF) 8987
Crowe Cathal (FF) 8355
Dooley Timmy (FF) 7763
McNamara Michael (IND) 7332
Carey Joe (FG) 5684
Garvey Roisin (GP) 5624
Breen Pat (FG) 5406
McInerney Rita (FF) 4136
Conway Martin (FG) 2285
Woulfe Joseph (IND) 1218
O’Donohoe Theresa (PBP) 1196
Leahy Michael (IFP) 704
Barrett David (IND) 400
Leyden Trudy (IND) 218
O’Brien Conor (REN) 187


Some points to ponder. It is very rare that someone outside the top 4 on the first count and having less then 50% of a quota of First Preferences gets elected.

FG need a very good vote transfer and hope the tallies prediction of little or no transfers to Wynne to pick up a seat

We may even end up in a situation where noone reaches the quota or the last 3 seats could be between 4 candidates (dooley Wynee McNamara & Carey)

Clareman

FG in big trouble here, strangley they'll want to have 2 of their candidates eliminated as soon as possible to get the third in, everyone being so far away from the quota suggests that most will be elected without meeting the target. Wynne will want Garvey knocked out as soon as possible to get ahead, Dooley & Crowe will want McInerney out to get them ahead, it could be days before anyone is elected let alone all 4

Johnboy1951

What is the quota?

Clareman

ger664 wrote: »

First Count

Surname First Party Vote
Wynne Violet-Anne (SF) 8987
Crowe Cathal (FF) 8355
Dooley Timmy (FF) 7763
McNamara Michael (IND) 7332
Carey Joe (FG) 5684
Garvey Roisin (GP) 5624
Breen Pat (FG) 5406
McInerney Rita (FF) 4136
Conway Martin (FG) 2285
Woulfe Joseph (IND) 1218
O’Donohoe Theresa (PBP) 1196
Leahy Michael (IFP) 704
Barrett David (IND) 400
Leyden Trudy (IND) 218
O’Brien Conor (REN) 187


Some points to ponder. It is very rare that someone outside the top 4 on the first count and having less then 50% of a quota of First Preferences gets elected.

FG need a very good vote transfer and hope the tallies prediction of little or no transfers to Wynne to pick up a seat

We may even end up in a situation where noone reaches the quota or the last 3 seats could be between 4 candidates (dooley Wynee McNamara & Carey)

If Conway's votes for majority to Breen and Breen gets ahead of Garvey there is a chance that FG don't get anyone in.

At this stage I'd be tempted to say that the top 4 will get the seats

Clareman

Johnboy1951 wrote: »

What is the quota?

11,900

Clareman

Mal-Adjusted wrote: »

Not a hope. You need to prove your worth, which means bringing your running mate over the line. at the moment it looks like the opposite.

Bringing in a second seat is all that counts, in fact "sacrificing" your top of the poll running mate makes you even mroe of a party man, it has been said for years that if Willie O'Dea brought in a second candidate he'd have been given a bigger role

Clareman

https://www.irishtimes.com/election2020/clare

34% went to FF and they look like getting 2 seats, FG got 22.5% and mightn't get anyone in, you've to love PR

ger664

Clareman wrote: »

If Conway's votes for majority to Breen and Breen gets ahead of Garvey there is a chance that FG don't get anyone in.

At this stage I'd be tempted to say that the top 4 will get the seats

Say a tweet earlier where Carey would get twice as many votes as Breen on Conways Transfer and McNamara picking up as many as Breen

Clareman

ger664 wrote: »

Say a tweet earlier where Carey would get twice as many votes as Breen on Conways Transfer and McNamara picking up as many as Breen

If Breen is eliminated before Garvey then Carey will get the majority of the transfers which could get him a seat, if Garvey is knocked out first then her transfer would be probably for McNamara and Wynne which could put them out of reach of Carey and Breens transfers.

I am assuming that McInerney transfers will all got to Dooley and Crowe and will push them safe

golfball37

VA Wynne not transfer friendly at all I’ve heard.

Clareman

golfball37 wrote: »

VA Wynne not transfer friendly at all I’ve heard.

Heard that from a few sources but she isnt going to be over taken by 4 others so shes guaranteed a seat I'd imagine

ger664

Clareman wrote: »

If Breen is eliminated before Garvey then Carey will get the majority of the transfers which could get him a seat, if Garvey is knocked out first then her transfer would be probably for McNamara and Wynne which could put them out of reach of Carey and Breens transfers.

I am assuming that McInerney transfers will all got to Dooley and Crowe and will push them safe

Would agree with this if Breen doesnt pass Garvey on Conways transfers Carey has a much better chance of a seat.

Clareman

Garvey has overtaken the 2 FG lads now and you'd imagine she'll be transfer friendly from the independents and smaller parties, if Conway transfers are mainly to Breen Carey could be in trouble.

Arent elections great craic, i didnt head up because of the weather

ger664

Third Count

Surname First Party Vote
Wynne Violet-Anne (SF) 9063
Crowe Cathal (FF) 8402
Dooley Timmy (FF) 7783
McNamara Michael (IND) 7465
Garvey Roisin (GP) 5735
Carey Joe (FG) 5721
Breen Pat (FG) 5454
McInerney Rita (FF) 4179
Conway Martin (FG) 2310
Woulfe Joseph (IND) 1285
O’Donohoe Theresa (PBP) 1254
Leahy Michael (IFP) 807
Barrett David (IND) 0
Leyden Trudy (IND) 0
O’Brien Conor (REN) 0

letowski

The Clare Champion live youtube broadcast is excellent. Great insight and interviews.

Rumours on the ground alot of Rita McInerney's transfers are geographically going to Breen, rather than along party lines.

Conway's transfers are rumoured to scatter.

Very exciting it has to be said.

False Prophet

FIFTH COUNT

Wynne Violet-Anne (SF) 9599 (+457)
Crowe Cathal (FF) 8541 (+33)
Dooley Timmy (FF) 7826 (+21)
McNamara Michael (IND) 7702 (+114)
Garvey Roisin (GP) 6213 (+435)
Carey Joe (FG) 5771 (+26)
Breen Pat (FG) 5494 (+16)
McInerney Rita (FF) 4250 (+17)
Conway Martin (FG) 2340 (+18)
Woulfe Joseph (IND) 1504 (+102)

Non-Transferable – 47

Marty Xavier

I assume alot of Roisin's transfers will go to McNamara and possibly Wynne? not so much the big (!)parties if she gets eliminated?

ger664

Sixth Count

Surname First Party Vote
Wynne Violet-Anne (SF) 9807
Crowe Cathal (FF) 8641
McNamara Michael (IND) 8169
Dooley Timmy (FF) 7906
Garvey Roisin (GP) 6337
Carey Joe (FG) 5814
Breen Pat (FG) 5578
McInerney Rita (FF) 4440
Conway Martin (FG) 2424

LuckyGent88

Seen on twitter that Timmy thinks he will loose his seat.

Thanks be the lord the useless bollix. Crowe got some surge off the RIC thing.

maura2e

Woohooo! There is a god! Delighted for Clare that they are getting rid of him & now Michael Martin won't have that dilemma of whether to have him on the front bench or not. ;-) Really proud of Clare electing Violet Anne Wynne SF. Shows that the politics of old can be overturned. Hope this shift to SF will bring a huge change to the way this country is run and the next govt will focus on its people's issues rather than the corporates, bankers, vulture funds etc etc etc that FG has shoved down our throats for the last 9 yrs! So glad to see FG have lost a good few of their TDs. Interesting it took 5 counts for their dear Leader Leo to get elected. Wish he'd got the boot too!

Marty Xavier

I hope that Sinn Fein get into Government and show everyone how they can make their policies work...and then we'll see how good they are.

maura2e

Yes totally agree. But to be fair they couldn't do worse than what FGFF have dished up for nearly 100 yrs. It will be very interesting to see how this pans out. My wish would be that Mary Lou could form a govt w/o FGFF but if she ends up going in with FF then SF will have a significant say in how this country will be run and I would love to see Pierce Doherty in charge of the purse strings, Louse O'Reilly over Health and Eoin O'Brion over Housing. That could bring significant change for all of us!

Cookiemunster

maura2e wrote: »

Yes totally agree. But to be fair they couldn't do worse than what FGFF have dished up for nearly 100 yrs. It will be very interesting to see how this pans out. My wish would be that Mary Lou could form a govt w/o FGFF but if she ends up going in with FF then SF will have a significant say in how this country will be run and I would love to see Pierce Doherty in charge of the purse strings, Louse O'Reilly over Health and Eoin O'Brion over Housing. That could bring significant change for all of us!

It's not possible for them to form a government without FF of FG. They'll have to go into coalition with one of them if they want to be in power.

I too would like to see them in power, if only to see how they'd manage to pay for their populist give away manifesto. Although I doubt I'd like to see the financial consequences.

Shadow Dancer

It'll be a sad day for Ireland if the likes of Sinn Féin and their ilk get into government. Maybe Mary Lou can make Thomas Slab Murphy the new Garda Commissioner? Will she be saluting the Belfast brigade in her speech as Taoiseach? And saying Tiocfaidh ar lá? ðŸ˜

letowski

Dooley couldnt overtake McNamara after Rita McInerney's votes were distributed. I think MMc will increase that lead after Breen's votes are transferred. Dooley now totally reliant on Garvey's old Fianna Fail's roots to sneak him through. But he is in trouble no doubt as MMc has been very transfer friendly throughtout this process. Will a green vote transfer well to an independant farmer?

davidjtaylor

Genuine question (please humour me): why are parties allowed to have more than one candidate in a constituency? Isn't it unfair on smaller parties?

Johnboy1951

A group made of SF, GP and SocDem might well have more seats than FF in the end.
That group could then be the primary partner in a coalition gov. ...... IF FF would go into such a coalition.

We might well be facing another election, which would probably be the most interesting result

Marty Xavier

letowski wrote: »

Dooley couldnt overtake McNamara after Rita McInerney's votes were distributed. I think MMc will increase that lead after Breen's votes are transferred. Dooley now totally reliant on Garvey's old Fianna Fail's roots to sneak him through. But he is in trouble no doubt as MMc has been very transfer friendly throughtout this process. Will a green vote transfer well to an independant farmer?

Yes Roisin's transfers will go to Ml McNamara, if she gets eliminated.
Dooley is in trouble. Joe Carey needs probably half of Breen's transfers.

osarusan

Carey moves up to third off Breen's transfers, but less than 800 votes between 1st and 5th with Garvey's transfers to decide it.

Incredibly tight but unlikely that Dooley will overtake McNamara from her transfers. That's not the only question though, as even a mild swing could put anybody but Crowe into 5th.

If Wynne remains so unfriendly to transfers, she might be in for a sudden shock after such early success.


Cathal Crowe, FF 10,659
Violet-Anne Wynne, SF 10,291
Joe Carey, FG 10,193
Michael Mcnamara, IND 10,113
Timmy Dooley, FF 9,943
Róisín Garvey, GP 7,339 (excluded)

letowski

osarusan wrote: »

Carey moves up to third off Breen's transfers, but less than 800 votes between 1st and 5th with Garvey's transfers to decide it.

Incredibly tight but unlikely that Dooley will overtake McNamara from her transfers. That's not the only question though, as even a mild swing could put anybody but Crowe into 5th.

If Wynne remains so unfriendly to transfers, she might be in for a sudden shock after such early success.


Cathal Crowe, FF 10,659
Violet-Anne Wynne, SF 10,291
Joe Carey, FG 10,193
Michael Mcnamara, IND 10,113
Timmy Dooley, FF 9,943
Róisín Garvey, GP 7,339 (excluded)

While Dooley and Carey may not do so well from Garvey's transfers, Dooley just needs to beat Carey by 250 votes. I think its do-able given Garvey's father was a prominent FF counsellor. But it's too close to call.

I think Wynne and McNamara will do fine from Garvey's transfer.

BnB

However our eventual 4 TDs do in the Dáil, at least they've given us a couple of days old fashioned political entertainment. Last count underway and Crowe is the only one who could even be thinking about organising his digs in the big smoke already.

LuckyGent88

This is kind of fun watching them sweat!!!

Marty Xavier

letowski wrote: »

While Dooley and Carey may not do so well from Garvey's transfers, Dooley just needs to beat Carey by 250 votes. I think its do-able given Garvey's father was a prominent FF counsellor. But it's too close to call.

I think Wynne and McNamara will do fine from Garvey's transfer.

I agree with this, Mc Namara, Wynne, will get most of Roisin's transfers, Crowe a few , Dooley possibly enough to leapfrog Carey, but sure both are hardly inspiring.

Listening to Carey on Clare Fm was kind of harrowing, he kept welling up, obviously it's tough. Garvey's interview was refreshing actually when she went out, obviously proud of her campaign. Well done.

osarusan

Dooley looks like he has pretty much given up on RTE, although there's so few votes in it...250 more than Carey out of several thousand isn't out of the question.

If he is eliminated, he must be pretty bitter about having to implement a vote management strategy that will end up seeing Crowe ease past him.

A2LUE42

osarusan wrote: »

Dooley looks like he has pretty much given up on RTE, although there's so few votes in it...250 more than Carey out of several thousand isn't out of the question.

If he is eliminated, he must be pretty bitter about having to implement a vote management strategy that will end up seeing Crowe ease past him.

Vote Management? I has two canvassers call for Dooley and one for Crowe. No mention about any voting strategy or even mention any other FF Canditates from any of them.

osarusan

A2LUE42 wrote: »

Vote Management? I has two canvassers call for Dooley and one for Crowe. No mention about any voting strategy or even mention any other FF Canditates from any of them.

I don't know what it would have looked like in Dooley and Crowe's case, but as somebody who lives a few hundred yards from the Limerick border, I know that in previous elections there, when Michael Noonan's election was pretty much a certainty, there were places that he wouldn't canvass in, to allow the other FG candidate to gain more votes in those areas.

Johnboy1951

Bye bye Timmy!

RocketRaccoon

Shadow Dancer wrote: »

It'll be a sad day for Ireland if the likes of Sinn F and their ilk get into government. Maybe Mary Lou can make Thomas Slab Murphy the new Garda Commissioner? Will she be saluting the Belfast brigade in her speech as Taoiseach? And saying Tiocfaidh ar la

Their day has come.

LuckyGent88

Timmy Doolittle is gone

Clareman

Carey, Crowe, McNamara and Wynne elected, wow Dooley and Breen miss out

Odyssey 2005

LuckyGent88 wrote: »

Timmy Doolittle is gone

PBH is absolutely shyte on the radio programme.

Clareman

715 votes between Dooley and Carey, I'd be amazed if there wasnt a recount

Tefral

Delighted for Cathal.

Some young blood in the Dail certainly will help

Tefral

Tefral wrote: »

Delighted for Cathal.

Some young blood in the Dail certainly will help

You'll be thrilled about Violet-Anne so as she's a good 4 years+ younger!