General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

L1011

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I don't see how you can see this as anything other than a demotion. If he's not Taoiseach by the end of this process I don't see how he would stay in government.

But he's certainly not toddling off to be a doctor for a year and a half.

He knows he's not going to be Taoiseach at the start; its a rotational deal.

This would avoid him being given a Minister role which is an obvious demotion; or Tainaiste which is somehow even more of a demotion. Ryan (or C.Martin) will want the Tainaiste role anyway.

Martin (M) will retire as FF leader at the end of his rotation and take the standard ex-Taoiseach non voting backbench role - and likely retire at the election after.

WishUWereHere

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Right? You obviously took that personally?

You still not paying for your bins eh?




Can I see your hate scale?



The people of Carlow/KK decided he was worthy of a seat in Dáil Éireann. I didn't vote for him.

If I had the misfortune to live in Carlow or Kilkenny I likely wouldn't have either.

To piss and moan about him now is hilarious.




Your awareness and knowledge really summarised right there. G'luck.

You are entitled to your opinion as I am too. I respect your opinions, BUT who the hell are You to make a comment about whether I pay for my bins or not?

For Your info, I do and ALWAYS have. My account is with Thornton's and my bins are collected every Monday. Want my Thornton's account #?

frw5

Am I getting this right or the new government is supposed to be formed over the weekend.
Didn't all 3 parties announce increase in HTB sceheme prior to elections? In terms of amounts? I guess that would be only in budget 2021, they wouldn't touch the one already set in place?

eagle eye

frw5 wrote:

Am I getting this right or the new government is supposed to be formed over the weekend. Didn't all 3 parties announce increase in HTB sceheme prior to elections? In terms of amounts? I guess that would be only in budget 2021, they wouldn't touch the one already set in place?

There'll be nothing positive in the next budget. It'll be all about taking money off people and all election promises made will be explained away as not happening due to coronavirus.
We all have to pay for that 350 euro covid-19 handout.

Panda Killa

eagle eye wrote: »

There'll be nothing positive in the next budget. It'll be all about taking money off people and all election promises made will be explained away as not happening due to coronavirus.
We all have to pay for that 350 euro covid-19 handout.

And? No matter who is in government..that's the reality we are facing

eagle eye

Panda Killa wrote:

And? No matter who is in government..that's the reality we are facing

Yes.

Sierra Oscar

It sounds like we will have an agreement at some stage tomorrow. That's only half the battle I guess, over to the Greens now to see if their membership will back it. FF are so desperate their membership are likely to endorse it to save Micheál Martin the embarrassment of being forced out.

eagle eye

I never voted for them and never will but just thinking it's shocking that the party with the most seats won't be in government. I'm kinda happy about it but it feels wrong at the same time.

beggars_bush

eagle eye wrote: »

There'll be nothing positive in the next budget. It'll be all about taking money off people and all election promises made will be explained away as not happening due to coronavirus.
We all have to pay for that 350 euro covid-19 handout.

It's right and proper that families were supported during the covid crisis
And I'm fully expecting a tax increase or USC hike

Sam Russell

eagle eye wrote: »

I never voted for them and never will but just thinking it's shocking that the party with the most seats won't be in government. I'm kinda happy about it but it feels wrong at the same time.

Well, 75% of the electorate did not vote for them. So they do not have a sufficient mandate to form a Gov, and a very significant number of TDs do not want to have anything to do with them. They continue to chant that the vote was for change, but nearly half the electorate voted for FF and FG. That is a vote for no change. They (SF) were unable to persuade any party to go with them into Gov.

How is that wrong?

eagle eye

Sam Russell wrote:

How is that wrong?

They are the biggest party. FG and FF votes don't cross over in elections so while you see them as similar, and a lot of people do including yours truly, I don't think either has a true mandate from their own supporters to form a coalition with their long time enemy.

I just feel the biggest party should be in government. Actusliy I think it'd be the perfect time too to show them up as what they truly are, which is pretty clueless.

L1011

eagle eye wrote: »

I never voted for them and never will but just thinking it's shocking that the party with the most seats won't be in government. I'm kinda happy about it but it feels wrong at the same time.

Its the absolute norm in multi-party systems

In Denmark recently enough the main party of the government came third - the first (outgoing at the time and now in government again) and second (main opposition both those times) basically let them at it.

LuasSimon

Interesting article in Irish times today , it seems the greens have been taken over by the far left and could well reject any deal with FG or FF

L1011

Greens are an all-encompassing party; a previous attempt to split their left out (Fis Nua) died and someone reminded me elsewhere that their first ever TD quit in the early 90s and tried to do the same.

If they can't manage a broad church, realistically there needs to be a split in to a centrist ecology party and an eco-socialist one; like many other countries have.

LuasSimon

L1011 wrote: »

Greens are an all-encompassing party; a previous attempt to split their left out (Fis Nua) died and someone reminded me elsewhere that their first ever TD quit in the early 90s and tried to do the same.

If they can't manage a broad church, realistically there needs to be a split in to a centrist ecology party and an eco-socialist one; like many other countries have.

Looks like the one here will become a eco - far left - socialist one !!

eagle eye

LuasSimon wrote:

Looks like the one here will become a eco - far left - socialist one !!

How can FF/FG go with them then?

WishUWereHere

eagle eye wrote: »

How can FF/FG go with them then?

I don't think they can, and for that's right. What we need is another election. I know people will say thats rubbish, but I do think things will be different then.

For one, the shinners will nominate many more potential td's. Will that work for them? Who knows. At the same time I do believe FG will gain from their obedience to the HSE over CV19. FF, who needs them? As for kelly and labour? I think they will sink into oblivion.

All I'm saying is that if there was another election, the landscape may well be a LOT different to last February.

BonnieSituation

eagle eye wrote: »

I never voted for them and never will but just thinking it's shocking that the party with the most seats won't be in government. I'm kinda happy about it but it feels wrong at the same time.

How did you feel when Labour "shafted" Reynolds on 1994 then?

Thank god there's no rule that the "largest party" have to be in government. Imagine the state of that.

hotmail.com

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

It sounds like we will have an agreement at some stage tomorrow. That's only half the battle I guess, over to the Greens now to see if their membership will back it. FF are so desperate their membership are likely to endorse it to save Micheál Martin the embarrassment of being forced out.

I'm getting the impression that Catherine Martin is about to sign off on the deal and then recommend Green members vote against it?

Have I got that right?

hotmail.com

WishUWereHere wrote: »

I don't think they can, and for that's right. What we need is another election. I know people will say thats rubbish, but I do think things will be different then.

For one, the shinners will nominate many more potential td's. Will that work for them? Who knows. At the same time I do believe FG will gain from their obedience to the HSE over CV19. FF, who needs them? As for kelly and labour? I think they will sink into oblivion.

All I'm saying is that if there was another election, the landscape may well be a LOT different to last February.

Absolutely.

And SF will be called out on their boll*x tax cuts. Without promising tax cuts, I think SF will suffer in an election campaign.

Jizique

eagle eye wrote: »

I never voted for them and never will but just thinking it's shocking that the party with the most seats won't be in government. I'm kinda happy about it but it feels wrong at the same time.

Imagine having FF running the country every single year from 1932 till 2011....

Geuze

LuasSimon wrote: »

Interesting article in Irish times today , it seems the greens have been taken over by the far left and could well reject any deal with FG or FF

Ah Jaysus, I suspected this.

I support environmentalism, and I voted Green reluctantly, as they were mostly pro-abortion.

I now regret voting for them, as they seem to be for illegal immigration.

AndrewJRenko

eagle eye wrote: »

How can FF/FG go with them then?

How can they not?

BonnieSituation

Geuze wrote: »

Ah Jaysus, I suspected this.

I support environmentalism, and I voted Green reluctantly, as they were mostly pro-abortion.

I now regret voting for them, as they seem to be for illegal immigration.

It seems that most people voted for something that we're not gonna get.

I'm not one for discussing what I voted for but I voted specifically for FG, SD, Green and SF given my Constituency.

I don't want FF near government ever.

So you have a situation where FG and Green have lost a loyal voter because of that decision.

I can't imagine I'm the only one. It's a long time since I was an FG member, but based on any deal that puts FF into government I can't imagine it won't go down well. It'll pass, but it won't be without damage for the next GE.

Sierra Oscar

hotmail.com wrote: »

I'm getting the impression that Catherine Martin is about to sign off on the deal and then recommend Green members vote against it?

Have I got that right?

I'd say she will back it.

She doesn't seem to have been briefing against the deal at all these last few days. No concerns being raised. How can she sign off on the deal that she negotiated and then recommend to members to reject it?

Regardless it's no certainty that it will pass the membership even if both Ryan and Martin endorse the deal.

frw5

Was just going through the Green Party housing policy document:
https://www.greenparty.ie/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/Green-Party-Housing-Policy.pdf

It's completely illiterate, incorrect spacing and what not, document looks like it was written by a primary school student.

Shocking.

touts

hotmail.com wrote: »

I'm getting the impression that Catherine Martin is about to sign off on the deal and then recommend Green members vote against it?

Have I got that right?

She's ambitious. She will probably not recommend it or oppose it. She will come out with some vague statement that "she respects the integrity of the voting process" or some rubbish like that. So no matter what way the vote goes she will claim to have been on the winning side.

Leonard Hofstadter

Given the way the leadership in FF and FG have sold their minds, and souls, for the sake of getting a Programme for Government together to appease a party that got just 7% of the vote, I hope the grassroots in both parties can see through this, and reject it. Well I have little faith in FF, but I hope there are still some people in Fine Gael who have principles and some moral fibre.

They have utterly betrayed the 440,000 voters (of which I am now ashamed to say I was one of) who gave them their number one vote in the most recent election.

I know the Donegal branch in the party is opposed to it, I believe the Cork North West one is, too - I just hope others will follow suit and kill this nonsense off before the 2/3rds of people who don't live in Dublin kill off the party and gift the Shinners and all those mad Healy-Rae type independents the next Government.

WishUWereHere

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

Given the way the leadership in FF and FG have sold their minds, and souls, for the sake of getting a Programme for Government together to appease a party that got just 7% of the vote, I hope the grassroots in both parties can see through this, and reject it. Well I have little faith in FF, but I hope there are still some people in Fine Gael who have principles and some moral fibre.

They have utterly betrayed the 440,000 voters (of which I am now ashamed to say I was one of) who gave them their number one vote in the most recent election.

I know the Donegal branch in the party is opposed to it, I believe the Cork North West one is, too - I just hope others will follow suit and kill this nonsense off before the 2/3rds of people who don't live in Dublin kill off the party and gift the Shinners and all those mad Healy-Rae type independents the next Government.

While I 100% agree with your first 2 paragraphs, your last one is scary. I hear what You say, but ( and this is a genuine question ) What the f**k is the alternative?

Only way I see, is another election.

ThunbergsAreGo

WishUWereHere wrote: »

While I 100% agree with your first 2 paragraphs, your last one is scary. I hear what You say, but ( and this is a genuine question ) What the f**k is the alternative?

Only way I see, is another election.

After which we'd likely be in the exact same situation

Leonard Hofstadter

WishUWereHere wrote: »

While I 100% agree with your first 2 paragraphs, your last one is scary. I hear what You say, but ( and this is a genuine question ) What the f**k is the alternative?

Only way I see, is another election.

Another election. Can't understand why FG doesn't take advantage of their 35% standing in the polls, that would net 70 seats. Then do a deal with Labour, Soc Dems, rural TDs, FF (what's left of them).

Maybe another election would give a similar result to February, but then FG would definitely have legitimate grounds to go into opposition, and let someoene else.

FF would ditch Martin in this scenario and probably go in with the Shinners. The only way to solve the problem of the Shinners is to expose them to the reality of being in power. Maybe then Fine Gael might grow up and remember their values, and relentlessly hammer home how incompetent a FF/SF Government would be, and we might have grown ups again in charge in a few years' time.

As things stand, Fine Gael has a death wish if their membership approves this. If this gets through, they've lost me as a voter, and I'm sure I'm not the only one. I actually wouldn't know who to vote for now.

Rosahane

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

Another election. Can't understand why FG doesn't take advantage of their 35% standing in the polls, that would net 70 seats. Then do a deal with Labour, Soc Dems, rural TDs, FF (what's left of them).

Maybe another election would give a similar result to February, but then FG would definitely have legitimate grounds to go into opposition, and let someoene else.

FF would ditch Martin in this scenario and probably go in with the Shinners. The only way to solve the problem of the Shinners is to expose them to the reality of being in power. Maybe then Fine Gael might grow up and remember their values, and relentlessly hammer home how incompetent a FF/SF Government would be, and we might have grown ups again in charge in a few years' time.

As things stand, Fine Gael has a death wish if their membership approves this. If this gets through, they've lost me as a voter, and I'm sure I'm not the only one. I actually wouldn't know who to vote for now.

I could have written that. Totally agree. Fine (pronounced fine ) Gael have completely lost the plot!

AndrewJRenko

Leonard Hofstadter wrote: »

Another election. Can't understand why FG doesn't take advantage of their 35% standing in the polls, that would net 70 seats.

That's what Theresa May thought.

She ended up with less than she started out with. It's a funny oul game.

Very true, would need big balls for the parties to roll the dice again.

I'm interested in seeing if the greens will go for it. Their twitterati seems to be a real lefty bunch.

FF might go again, they don't want SF nibbling at their bum.:D

Imreoir2

Geuze wrote: »

I now regret voting for them, as they seem to be for illegal immigration.

What? How are they "for illegal immigration"?

salmocab

Whilst people are probably looking upon FG a bit better than a few months back, going back to the people may pi55 people off especially with Covid, campaigning and indeed voting being a bit fraught I can see why people would be worried how small election would play out.

bren2001

salmocab wrote: »

Whilst people are probably looking upon FG a bit better than a few months back, going back to the people may pi55 people off especially with Covid, campaigning and indeed voting being a bit fraught I can see why people would be worried how small election would play out.

Going back to the people makes complete sense to me. The "mandate" the new government were given may no longer be reflective of what people want as landscape is completely different. Certainly the budgets they presented and debated on can be thrown in the bin as can their manifestos. I would very much like to see what each parties plan is to get us out of this financial mess.

Itssoeasy

I know we need a government with a fresh mandate but I'd prefer most other parties beside the Green Party. They will not be good in government as while it's good to want to protect the environment because we only have one planet, the Green Party seem very rigid and it's a their way or they take their ball and go home.

Edit: also poll numbers I would take with a silo load of salt at this time.

Imreoir2

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I know we need a government with a fresh mandate I prefer most other parties beside the Green Party. They will not be good in government as while it's good to want to protect the environment because we only have one planet, the Green Party seem very rigid and it's a their way or they take their ball and go home.

The problem is that the other parties have not been willing to commit to doing what needs to be done. The Green Party had to take a hard line stance on the issue because the other parties were trying to push hard against it.

frw5

Is the Green Party mistaking the population of Ireland with the population of China?
They can introduce turning us all into sheep here by some magic wand it wont do sh*t for environment.

Itssoeasy

Imreoir2 wrote: »

The problem is that the other parties have not been willing to commit to doing what needs to be done. The Green Party had to take a hard line stance on the issue because the other parties were trying to push hard against it.

Well their hard line stance has turned a lot of voters myself included away from voting for them.

salmocab

bren2001 wrote: »

Going back to the people makes complete sense to me. The "mandate" the new government were given may no longer be reflective of what people want as landscape is completely different. Certainly the budgets they presented and debated on can be thrown in the bin as can their manifestos. I would very much like to see what each parties plan is to get us out of this financial mess.

Yeah it’s a different world now but if I was involved in a party I’d be thinking we have no idea how this might play out.

Macha

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Well their hard line stance has turned a lot of voters myself included away from voting for them.

I don't understand this. The party stands firm on its policy demands and that turns you off voting for them?

bren2001

salmocab wrote: »

Yeah it’s a different world now but if I was involved in a party I’d be thinking we have no idea how this might play out.

I think FF, FG, Greens, Soc Dems and Labour are happy with their positions. The first three being the only ones that matter. The only party that I think are keen for an election are SF and they have no say in the matter.

From a voters perspective, I'd like another election. There's a moral argument for it but there's very little space for morals in politics. However, I'd vote for the same person who, most likely, would be elected quite close to the last count.

Imreoir2

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Well their hard line stance has turned a lot of voters myself included away from voting for them.

They can turn 92% off, and still get their best result next time out. Not everyone agrees with the party or its goals, but it is only doing exactly what it said it would before the election.

Good loser

The FG party should definitely reject this deal.


This would then provoke a general election. However the way the voting is structured will, in my opinion, mean the odds of it being rejected are low.


FG are throwing away a great chance to significantly increase their TD numbers. And to wipe out FF as a major party. FF's antics on the Pension Age is the same as those on the Water Charges after the last election. They deserve oblivion for their lack of 'principles' (or complete absence of same).

Imreoir2

Good loser wrote: »

The FG party should definitely reject this deal.


This would then provoke a general election. However the way the voting is structured will, in my opinion, mean the odds of it being rejected are low.


FG are throwing away a great chance to significantly increase their TD numbers. And to wipe out FF as a major party. FF's antics on the Pension Age is the same as those on the Water Charges after the last election. They deserve oblivion for their lack of 'principles' (or complete absence of same).

FG would be blamed for causing a GE in the middle of a pandemic for petty party political reasons despite a deal being on the table. I can't see that going well for them.

bren2001

Good loser wrote: »

The FG party should definitely reject this deal.


This would then provoke a general election. However the way the voting is structured will, in my opinion, mean the odds of it being rejected are low.


FG are throwing away a great chance to significantly increase their TD numbers. And to wipe out FF as a major party. FF's antics on the Pension Age is the same as those on the Water Charges after the last election. They deserve oblivion for their lack of 'principles' (or complete absence of same).

I think there is the possibility of increasing their TD numbers but not making any gains and opening the door for SF is equally likely, if not more likely. They handled the Brexit stuff very well but were punished for other mistakes while in government. They've handed most of the COVID stuff quite well but eaten bread is soon forgotten. By the time the election comes around, we could be back to normal i.e. people in work. They won't get any credit for what they've done (I say that as someone who would never vote for them).

During this pandemic, they've handled the education stuff terribly, there are huge questions to ask around the nursing home and there are plenty of justifications to be asked for their financial decisions. There are plenty of easy targets for other parties to pick at.

On top of that, Housing and Health have not gone away. The second becoming an even more pressing issue. They don't have a particularly great track record in either during their term. I struggle to see where their massive increase in numbers will come from.

The big winners in all of this are FF. They've a serious chance of rebuilding a bit over the next 2 years before collapsing the Government over some trivial disagreement to trigger another election.

charlie14

Imreoir2 wrote: »

FG would be blamed for causing a GE in the middle of a pandemic for petty party political reasons despite a deal being on the table. I can't see that going well for them.

Sticking to their pension age plan would not endear them to the grey vote either.

Itssoeasy

Macha wrote: »

I don't understand this. The party stands firm on its policy demands and that turns you off voting for them?

No, it's not that they stand firm on its policy demands as it's hardly a surprise what the policies of the Green Party is, it's the way they present and convey those policies.