General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

its_steve116

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

It would be better for Leo to continue as Taoiseach first

Well, I didn't make the arrangements... if I did Eamon Ryan would be Taoiseach

Rosahane

namloc1980 wrote: »

Have to laugh at all the SF fans on social media taking shots at MM and LV for scraping in on the 6th or 8th counts in the GE as if it somehow makes them illegitimate. I'm 100% certain that SF would have much preferred to get 2 candidates over the line on the 8th count in all those constituencies where they ran just 1 candidate and polled c.2 quotas.

Mary Lou'd was quick to point out that the shinners would be providing a robust opposition speaking with one voice... Slab's I assume!

An Ciarraioch

Interesting that the Irish-language media are getting all the juicy developments today - the Donegal branches of both FF and FG plan to reject the agreement!

https://twitter.com/HMFerry/status/1272593404132823040

Gooey Looey

A group of over 50 councillors have launched a campaign to “defeat” the newly agreed programme for government.

In a statement, the group calling themselves ‘Fairer Future’ insisted the agreement will not deliver change.

The councillors from Cavan, Clare, Cork, Donegal, Galway, Kerry, Kildare, Leitrim, Louth, Meath, Sligo, Tipperary, Waterford and Wexford said the document “confirmed their fears” that he new government will be a “continuation of status quo politics”.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/50-fianna-fail-councillors-launch-campaign-to-stop-new-government-deal-39287987.html

jonnny68

Jaysus what a complete and utter nightmare having FFG and the treacherous tree huggers running the country, the political version of covid 19.

i'll give them 12 months tops before it goes t*ts up and another election happens and SF run a lot more candidates and romp home.

An Ciarraioch

Gooey Looey wrote: »

A group of over 50 councillors have launched a campaign to “defeat” the newly agreed programme for government.

In a statement, the group calling themselves ‘Fairer Future’ insisted the agreement will not deliver change.

The councillors from Cavan, Clare, Cork, Donegal, Galway, Kerry, Kildare, Leitrim, Louth, Meath, Sligo, Tipperary, Waterford and Wexford said the document “confirmed their fears” that he new government will be a “continuation of status quo politics”.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/50-fianna-fail-councillors-launch-campaign-to-stop-new-government-deal-39287987.html

Interesting that John McGuinness is the only other TD involved - will the grassroots revolt develop?

bren2001

jonnny68 wrote: »

Jaysus what a complete and utter nightmare having FFG and the treacherous tree huggers running the country, the political version of covid 19.

i'll give them 12 months tops before it goes t*ts up and another election happens and SF run a lot more candidates and romp home.

A year is a long time. SFs complete and utter lack of a coherent economic plan could easily be exposed as they are the main opposition party. Knives are out for them, some blows will land and it will be a difficult task in its own right to maintain thir vote let alone build on it.

FF are also shrewd, very bloody shrewd. A year is a long time for them. Albeit, I give this government 2 years before it's collapsed.

BonnieSituation

bren2001 wrote: »

A year is a long time. SFs complete and utter lack of a coherent economic plan could easily be exposed as they are the main opposition party. Knives are out for them, some blows will land and it will be a difficult task in its own right to maintain thir vote let alone build on it.

FF are also shrewd, very bloody shrewd. A year is a long time for them. Albeit, I give this government 2 years before it's collapsed.

There's an election happening in September 2021 looking at this shambles. No way they get to the first Taoiseach rotation.

Hopefully it's defeated. I'd rather have SF in power than FF near anything.

bren2001

BonnieSituation wrote: »

There's an election happening in September 2021 looking at this shambles. No way they get to the first Taoiseach rotation.

Hopefully it's defeated. I'd rather have SF in power than FF near anything.

Why would FF or FG collapse it if SF are in a viable position to win outright? The whole purpose of this is to shut them out.

Personally, SF are the last party I want in power.

Itssoeasy

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interesting that the Irish-language media are getting all the juicy developments today - the Donegal branches of both FF and FG plan to reject the agreement!

https://twitter.com/HMFerry/status/1272593404132823040

Donegal saying no to something. How very out of character.

Itssoeasy

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

It would be better for Leo to continue as Taoiseach first

Well michael Martin wants to fill out the Fianna Fáil Taoiseach loyalty card.

Interesting that there is a group of FF members who are against it and the Green Party need to get two thirds support. Lads this may be as cut and dry as we think.

Eggs For Dinner

frw5 wrote: »

So overall nothing changes. No burning issues are addressed, everything is put under the carpet, people didn't get what they voted for..

This does my head in. The main parties openly stated that they would have nothing to do with Sinn Fein/IRA and the public overwhelmingly voted to support that stance.

An Ciarraioch

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Well michael Martin wants to fill out the Fianna Fáil Taoiseach loyalty card.

Interesting that there is a group of FF members who are against it and the Green Party need to get two thirds support. Lads this may be as cut and dry as we think.

And now Ógra FF has declared its opposition:

https://twitter.com/OgraFiannaFail/status/1272613025422417921

BonnieSituation

bren2001 wrote: »

Why would FF or FG collapse it if SF are in a viable position to win outright? The whole purpose of this is to shut them out.

Personally, SF are the last party I want in power.

What? Who said they would do that?

I merely stated a preference for SF in govt rather than ever having FF in govt ever again.

Itssoeasy

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

And now Ógra FF has declared its opposition:

https://twitter.com/OgraFiannaFail/status/1272613025422417921

Michael Martin is going to have to give one hell of a sales pitch it seems. I wouldn't be getting the new ministerial seals of office ready just yet. You'd wonder how did the FF top brass get to a draft programme for government when it seems Party members aren't on board at all.

AMKC

jonnny68 wrote: »

Jaysus what a complete and utter nightmare having FFG and the treacherous tree huggers running the country, the political version of covid 19.

i'll give them 12 months tops before it goes t*ts up and another election happens and SF run a lot more candidates and romp home.

I hope you are wrong about the Shin Feinn part. That would be really bad for the country.
I think Leo is crazy to give up being Taioseacht and giving it to Micheal Martin. He will not want to give it back in two years time..

bren2001

BonnieSituation wrote: »

What? Who said they would do that?

I merely stated a preference for SF in govt rather than ever having FF in govt ever again.

You said "There's an election happening in September 2021 looking at this shambles", I don't believe there will be as I cannot see FF or FG pulling the plug on this arrangement if SF are in a viable position mount a serious challenge to be the biggest party. That is what I was referring too.

This will last as long as it needs to. I reckon thats 2022.

Bishop of hope

AMKC wrote: »

I hope you are wrong about the Shin Feinn part. That would be really bad for the country.
I think Leo is crazy to give up being Taioseacht and giving it to Micheal Martin. He will not want to give it back in two years time..

That could be the point of collapse perhaps, perhaps not!
FG owe FF the Taoiseach office perhaps too, they propped Enda and Leo up for four years.
I think FG may have had no option and FF and the greens are old allies anyway.
SF are where they wanted to be too I think, the main opposition, they will get some milage out of the lifetime of this Govt, and if it collapses before it runs its course then there's bound to political capital out of the cause of that collapse.
SF are gambling on being the largest party next time around, they will be in a strong position to pick up a coalition partner if FF and FG fall out during this Govt.
Perhaps I'm being premature, the deal hasn't been ratified yet, maybe there's still hope this time around.

BonnieSituation

bren2001 wrote: »

You said "There's an election happening in September 2021 looking at this shambles", I don't believe there will be as I cannot see FF or FG pulling the plug on this arrangement if SF are in a viable position mount a serious challenge to be the biggest party. That is what I was referring too.

This will last as long as it needs to. I reckon thats 2022.

Oh right, so you read between the lines to come up with some assumption of your own.

The thing is, the nature of FF and their power-hungry ways came in flashes during the C&S period. Now that they're in govt they'll be a different beast.

There will be too much bitterness in FG for some TDs losing their status. I can't see it lasting is all. Regardless of the circumstances of SFs position.

For Forks Sake

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1272624471992664068

If you're FG, you start praying to your deity of choice that the FF or Greens grassroots reject the PFG, thus achieving a new election without having seen to have been the cause of it. They can just so "we tried, not our fault them over there caused it to fail"

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1272623592166100993

The #notmytaoiseach brigade will be spitting feathers this evening

FrancieBrady

For Forks Sake wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1272624471992664068

If you're FG, you start praying to your deity of choice that the FF or Greens grassroots reject the PFG, thus achieving a new election without having seen to have been the cause of it. They can just so "we tried, not our fault them over there caused it to fail"

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1272623592166100993

The #notmytaoiseach brigade will be spitting feathers this evening

What will those who have to give way to a man on 14% be doing?

Widdensushi

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Well michael Martin wants to fill out the Fianna Fáil Taoiseach loyalty card.

Interesting that there is a group of FF members who are against it and the Green Party need to get two thirds support. Lads this may be as cut and dry as we think.

Surely it was inevitable that he would be taoiseach after the election results, I am surprised by his party opposition, if it means another election they will be slaughtered, people just aren't in the mood for it in the current climate

BonnieSituation

For Forks Sake wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1272624471992664068

If you're FG, you start praying to your deity of choice that the FF or Greens grassroots reject the PFG, thus achieving a new election without having seen to have been the cause of it. They can just so "we tried, not our fault them over there caused it to fail"

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1272623592166100993

The #notmytaoiseach brigade will be spitting feathers this evening

FF grassroots might be sobered up by those poll numbers and be happy to be at the trough.

FG need to pray for a FF and Green dogmatic rejection.

bennyl10

BonnieSituation wrote: »

FF grassroots might be sobered up by those poll numbers and be happy to be at the trough.

FG need to pray for a FF and Green dogmatic rejection.

Don’t FF just need a straight majority?
They’ll get that no problem. Revolt from some sections or not

BonnieSituation

bennyl10 wrote: »

Don’t FF just need a straight majority?
They’ll get that no problem. Revolt from some sections or not

I've no idea how it works tbh.

For Forks Sake

bennyl10 wrote: »

Don’t FF just need a straight majority?
They’ll get that no problem. Revolt from some sections or not

Greens need 2/3rds I believe, which might be far harder achieved.

Sierra Oscar

bennyl10 wrote: »

Don’t FF just need a straight majority?
They’ll get that no problem. Revolt from some sections or not

Yes they just need 50% +1 which will be easily achieved considering pretty much the entire parliamentary party is backing it.

No cabinet positions are being announced before the votes are counted so Micheál Martin will drive his TD's to get the yes vote out. Those that fail will not be at the cabinet table or any where near it, simple as.

Larbre34

All 3 parties have to ride out the 4.5 years ahead, work hard to minimise the economic damage that still hasn't crystallised yet and take on Sinn Féin over the issues and highlight the negatives of what their policies would result in.

bennyl10

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Greens need 2/3rds I believe, which might be far harder achieved.

Ya the greens are the issue

Fg and Ff won’t be an issue at all, barring all Tds, Cllrs and grassroots all turning, which won’t happen


The greens, ya that’s flip a coin and take a guess

For Forks Sake

bennyl10 wrote: »

Ya the greens are the issue

Fg and Ff won’t be an issue at all, barring all Tds, Cllrs and grassroots all turning, which won’t happen


The greens, ya that’s flip a coin and take a guess

A lot more puritans not for turning in the Greens grassroots, and that's before even considering the context of battle lines being drawn for their leadership contest.

bennyl10

For Forks Sake wrote: »

A lot more puritans not for turning in the Greens grassroots, and that's before even considering the context of battle lines being drawn for their leadership contest.

If the deputy leader is on board then we have a government

If she is anti this deal in any sense, I can see us very quickly back to the polls

It'll be interesting watching them.

Take the deal and the greens will at least get something out of it.
Reject the deal, trigger an election, lose seats and their all back to squabbling on twitter to pass the time.

bennyl10

bennyl10 wrote: »

If she is anti this deal in any sense, I can see us very quickly back to the polls

Catherine Martin voted for it. Francis Noel Duffy abstained. Mad stuff. :pac:

FrancieBrady

bennyl10 wrote: »

If the deputy leader is on board then we have a government

If she is anti this deal in any sense, I can see us very quickly back to the polls

I think she can't be seen to reject it with the whole leadership thing pending. She won't want an accusation of taking political party advantage. Her husband abstaining is interesting.

BonnieSituation

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

Catherine Martin voted for it. Francis Noel Duffy abstained. Mad stuff. :pac:

She's going to have a portfolio though. Of course she voted for it.

bennyl10

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

Catherine Martin voted for it. Francis Noel Duffy abstained. Mad stuff. :pac:

Of all the things I expected to read tonight...


This is going to be a bat-S few weeks

salmocab

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

Catherine Martin voted for it. Francis Noel Duffy abstained. Mad stuff. :pac:

That’s very odd, you’d think she’s in his ear somehow on this.

Fr Tod Umptious

bennyl10 wrote: »

Ya the greens are the issue

Fg and Ff won’t be an issue at all, barring all Tds, Cllrs and grassroots all turning, which won’t happen


The greens, ya that’s flip a coin and take a guess

Same was said back in 2007 about the deal with FF

They voted overwhelming to go into government.

L1011

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Same was said back in 2007 about the deal with FF

They voted overwhelming to go into government.

Wide-eyed innocence and a belief they had five years of unbridled wealth to spend on their ideals ahead of them.

This time neither the innocence nor the promise of riches exists!

Peregrinus

L1011 wrote: »

Wide-eyed innocence and a belief they had five years of unbridled wealth to spend on their ideals ahead of them.

This time neither the innocence nor the promise of riches exists!

Nevertheless, unlike politicians who want office for its own sake, the Greens for the most part want office as a means to an end - viz, to implement Green policies. And most of them recognise that they only way they are ever going to be in any position to implement any Green policies at all is by being willing to accept office when the opportunity arises.

blanch152

Peregrinus wrote: »

Nevertheless, unlike politicians who want office for its own sake, the Greens for the most part want office as a means to an end - viz, to implement Green policies. And most of them recognise that they only way they are ever going to be in any position to implement any Green policies at all is by being willing to accept office when the opportunity arises.

It is quite a contrast with the likes of Sinn Fein and the Social Democrats. They lack the self-confidence to take part in government and are interested more in power for power's sake than any real wish to change society.

rob316

I'll take back Leo for another few years over Martin.

namloc1980

Martin is going to be a very unpopular Taoiseach. I'm not sure there's anything he could do to change that.

Itssoeasy

L1011 wrote: »

Wide-eyed innocence and a belief they had five years of unbridled wealth to spend on their ideals ahead of them.

This time neither the innocence nor the promise of riches exists!

I wouldn't say the inncocene is gone. Not many of these TD from the Green Party have senior hurling experience as shown by one of the negotiators in Nessa Hourighan voting to abstain. I'd say one thing if it was a TD who wasn't part of that team but she was and she voted to abstain. I just don't get it.

The older Green Party members seem to have a more broad outlook and aren't as rigid. The new wing lead by the likes of saoirse mchugh who seemed to get notoriety above what her position warranted, as she wasn't elected twice seem rigid and it wouldn't surprise me if she herself was against this deal.

mgn

Itssoeasy wrote: »

I wouldn't say the inncocene is gone. Not many of these TD from the Green Party have senior hurling experience as shown by one of the negotiators in Nessa Hourighan voting to abstain. I'd say one thing if it was a TD who wasn't part of that team but she was and she voted to abstain. I just don't get it.

The older Green Party members seem to have a more broad outlook and aren't as rigid. The new wing lead by the likes of saoirse mchugh who seemed to get notoriety above what her position warranted, as she wasn't elected twice seem rigid and it wouldn't surprise me if she herself was against this deal.

McHugh was on the radio this morning saying she was against the deal and would be campaigning to reject going into government.

Itssoeasy

mgn wrote: »

McHugh was on the radio this morning saying she was against the deal and would be campaigning to reject going into government.

Not surprising. I hadn’t heard the radio this morning but I was working off her previous comments where she cut the legs off Eamonn Ryan during the general election I think.

namloc1980

mgn wrote: »

McHugh was on the radio this morning saying she was against the deal and would be campaigning to reject going into government.

Failed to get elected twice. Why does she get so much airtime?

eagle eye

rob316 wrote:

I'll take back Leo for another few years over Martin.

Thoughts of either is a nightmare.

mgn

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Not surprising. I hadn’t heard the radio this morning but I was working off her previous comments where she cut the legs off Eamonn Ryan during the general election I think.

The same Mchugh has very high opinions of herself, don't be surprised if you see her running in the next presidential election with Ming the turf cutter campaigning for her like he did in the last general election

eagle eye

namloc1980 wrote:

Failed to get elected twice. Why does she get so much airtime?

You know I was about to thumbs up your post but then I thought about it and she's definitely one of the three most well known GP members nationally.