General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

elperello

hotmail.com wrote: »

Lots of failed TDs on the senator list tonight. Some campaigned to abolish the Seanad.

I heard Regina Doherty on RTE TV earlier.

She was Director of Elections for FG in he campaign to abolish the Senate.

She just said she is a democrat, the people voted to keep it and where better to work for Senate reform than within.

Water John

See Catherine Martin and hubby sat together. I wonder did Christy and girlfriend Holly sit together. One voting Ta for MM the other voting Nil.

BonnieSituation

Widdensushi wrote: »

It's depressing looking at the map of the constituencies of the members of cabinet, the west of the country has been completely ignored.

So?

It really shouldn't matter. Plus how many bypasses and hospitals are needed at this stage for Roscommon?

BonnieSituation

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Draw a line from Kerry to Cavan and there is no Ministers representing this region. Its basically half the country. This is not going to go down well.

Nothing at all in the North East either.

Honestly, do people still get hung up on geographic spread of ministries in 2020? Should it not be about merit and ability rather than whether you eat blaas or farls.

Itssoeasy

Water John wrote: »

See Catherine Martin and hubby sat together. I wonder did Christy and girlfriend Holly sit together. One voting Ta for MM the other voting Nil.

When her party leader was taking when the cabinet had been announced she was sitting on her own.

BonnieSituation

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Honestly, do people still get hung up on geographic spread of ministries in 2020? Should it not be about merit and ability rather than whether you eat blaas or farls.

They do.

It should but our politics can be incredibly localistic. Ministers will look after their own patch first.

BonnieSituation

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

They do.

It should but our politics can be incredibly localistic. Ministers will look after their own patch first.

All the more reason to not give a crap about a particular region for a ministry and break the cycle.

charlie14

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

They do.

It should but our politics can be incredibly localistic. Ministers will look after their own patch first.

.... and are generally the first to get the old heave-ho next time around if they are judged not to have.

BonnieSituation

BonnieSituation wrote: »

All the more reason to not give a crap about a particular region for a ministry and break the cycle.

Well then watch your party struggle at the next local and national elections.

I don't like it. But that's the way it is.

hardybuck

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Nothing at all in the North East either.

Honestly, do people still get hung up on geographic spread of ministries in 2020? Should it not be about merit and ability rather than whether you eat blaas or farls.

It would seem both the blaa and the farl are unacceptable as the South East doesn't have a Minister either!

Waterford city hasn't had one in over a decade.

charlie14

elperello wrote: »

I heard Regina Doherty on RTE TV earlier.

She was Director of Elections for FG in he campaign to abolish the Senate.

She just said she is a democrat, the people voted to keep it and where better to work for Senate reform than within.

A cynic might be forgiven for "She would say that wouldn`t she"

theguzman

How long before Sinn Fein, various leftwing factions and rural Independent TD's unite to bring down this Government. It won't take much to get massive protests going and this Government have a majority of 4 TD's, the law of averages suggests one or two will die, some sleazeballs will resign, Fianna Fail full of corruption, some will jump ship to save their own bacon. With enough unrest and agitation they can be got rid of.

I voted for Fine Gael but I'll vote for Sinn Fein next time over this because what we have seen is anti-democratic, the biggest Party SF should have been involved and I could see SF/FG/FF as a pragmatic Unity Government with a rotating Taoiseach between Mary Lou, Leo and Micheal.

FG have really dropped the soap on this one, they could have gone back to the country for an election and returned with 60+ seats and formed a Govt on their own, instead they have put corrupt Fianna Fail into power and kept the democratically elected SF out of power.

With a collapsed economy in depression, no immigration safety valve and an international protest culture with BLM unrest is inevitable. Sinn Fein will surge to 60-70+ seats in the next election which will come within 12 months while FG instead of securing a near majority will be annihilated with FG and FF barely sharing 40 seats between them.

The Greens and Fianna Fail will break the middle class camels back and SF will reap the rewards in a Trumpian protest type election. It will take an economic miracle to save FFG now.

hardybuck

I think there has to be a realisation that SF didn't appear to enter Government formation talks with anyone, nor where they genuinely interested in doing so. FG led a minority Government for the last four years so they could have done similar.

You can't blame FG and FF for having an objection to SF, both on a policy level and in terms of the darkness which they can't quite shake, and seemingly don't want to. Some of that has to lie at SF's door.

Ivefoundgod

theguzman wrote: »

How long before Sinn Fein, various leftwing factions and rural Independent TD's unite to bring down this Government. It won't take much to get massive protests going and this Government have a majority of 4 TD's, the law of averages suggests one or two will die, some sleazeballs will resign, Fianna Fail full of corruption, some will jump ship to save their own bacon. With enough unrest and agitation they can be got rid of.

I voted for Fine Gael but I'll vote for Sinn Fein next time over this because what we have seen is anti-democratic, the biggest Party SF should have been involved and I could see SF/FG/FF as a pragmatic Unity Government with a rotating Taoiseach between Mary Lou, Leo and Micheal.

FG have really dropped the soap on this one, they could have gone back to the country for an election and returned with 60+ seats and formed a Govt on their own, instead they have put corrupt Fianna Fail into power and kept the democratically elected SF out of power.

With a collapsed economy in depression, no immigration safety valve and an international protest culture with BLM unrest is inevitable. Sinn Fein will surge to 60-70+ seats in the next election which will come within 12 months while FG instead of securing a near majority will be annihilated with FG and FF barely sharing 40 seats between them.

The Greens and Fianna Fail will break the middle class camels back and SF will reap the rewards in a Trumpian protest type election. It will take an economic miracle to save FFG now.

How exactly would opposition TDs unite to bring down the government? It would take a particularly brave FF/FG/GP TD to go against their party like that and lose party support let alone multiples.

Also, you voted for FG? And you are surpised they didn't talk to SF? I smell a rat to be honest as anyone with even the slightest interest in politics and indeed those with none would have known that FG made a point of saying they would NEVER go in with SF. And yet you sound like that came as a shock to you?

As for SF surging to 60-70 seats? Laughable comment, take a look at some of their current TDs and their past attempts at vote management to see how likely that is.

Ivefoundgod

Ivefoundgod wrote: »

How exactly would opposition TDs unite to bring down the government? It would take a particularly brave FF/FG/GP TD to go against their party like that and lose party support let alone multiples.

Also, you voted for FG? And you are surpised they didn't talk to SF? I smell a rat to be honest as anyone with even the slightest interest in politics and indeed those with none would have known that FG made a point of saying they would NEVER go in with SF. And yet you sound like that came as a shock to you?

As for SF surging to 60-70 seats? Laughable comment, take a look at some of their current TDs and their past attempts at vote management to see how likely that is.

They will definitely get more votes in the mid west, west and North west of Ireland after this.

If you think not having a single minister west of the Shannon is not important just listen to every local radio station in the region next week. Those listeners are the voters.

Major mistake by MM. Calleary is been ridiculed locally already, deputy leader of FF and doesn't even have a vote at cabinet. Eamon O'Cuiv will be smiling tonight MM played right into his hands.

The Pale and Cork running the country again.

Ivefoundgod

Deleted User wrote: »

They will definitely get more votes in the mid west, west and North west of Ireland after this.

If you think not having a single minister west of the Shannon is not important just listen to every local radio station in the region next week. Those listeners are the voters.

Major mistake by MM. Calleary is been ridiculed locally already, deputy leader of FF and doesn't even have a vote at cabinet. Eamon O'Cuiv will be smiling tonight MM played right into his hands.

The Pale and Cork running the country again.

I'm not really sure how any of this relates to my comment but sure ok. I'm not going to waste time speculating how people will vote in 5 years time and i'd recommend anyone else thinking about it not to bother. No one could have foreseen the last GEs outcome up to a week in advance, lets not try and pretend to know what one in 5 years is going to look like.

My point was its laughable to say with such confidence that SF will have 60+ plus seats next time.

Ivefoundgod

Ivefoundgod wrote: »

I'm not really sure how any of this relates to my comment but sure ok. I'm not going to waste time speculating how people will vote in 5 years time and i'd recommend anyone else thinking about it not to bother. No one could have foreseen the last GEs outcome up to a week in advance, lets not try and pretend to know what one in 5 years is going to look like.

My point was its laughable to say with such confidence that SF will have 60+ plus seats next time.

Don't expect they will either, but they are the only opposition now. Also can't see this government lasting anywhere near full term, they have a majority of 4.

They don't stand a chance of winning any by-election outside of Dublin or Cork.

Ivefoundgod

Deleted User wrote: »

Don't expect they will either, but they are the only opposition now. Also can't see this government lasting anywhere near full term, they have a majority of 4.

They don't stand a chance of winning any by-election outside of Dublin or Cork.

I'm sorry but you are now doing exactly what the poster I called out was doing by saying they have no chance of winning a by-election outside of Dublin or Cork. That is based on absolutely nothing other than your apparent belief that anyone who doesn't have a minister suddenly deciding they are SF/PBP/LAB voters?

Ivefoundgod

Ivefoundgod wrote: »

I'm sorry but you are now doing exactly what the poster I called out was doing by saying they have no chance of winning a by-election outside of Dublin or Cork. That is based on absolutely nothing other than your apparent belief that anyone who doesn't have a minister suddenly deciding they are SF/PBP/LAB voters?

Based on the reality that people will be angry on the absolute lack of balance at the cabinet. Half the country has no representation at cabinet. Can you imagine nobody from Leinster or Dublin at cabinet. Lots of Munster, All connacht and the North west have been left without a vote at the cabinet table. There wasn't even a thinly veiled attempt at balance.

By Elections in general are protest votes. There will be complete apathy by FF & FG voters outside of Dublin and Cork after this. I'm a FG supporter, even talking to FF voters and campaigners this evening they are disgusted at MM. If there was a by election tomorrow in Mayo a 2nd SF TD would be elected, i'd expect the same pattern in lots of other constituencies.

Ivefoundgod

Deleted User wrote: »

Based on the reality that people will be angry on the absolute lack of balance at the cabinet. Half the country has no representation at cabinet. Can you imagine nobody from Leinster at cabinet.

By Elections in general are protest votes. There will be complete apathy by FF & FG voters outside of Dublin and Cork after this. I'm a FG supporter, even talking to FF voters and campaigners this evening they are disgusted at MM.

The same FF campiagners who backed this PfG by 70+ percent? Lets not mistake your hearsay and anecdotal evidence for hard facts.

Lets take a look at your map shall we; the following counties will also apparently suddenly decry FF/FG/GP due to a lack of ministers; Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim, Roscommon, Longford, Louth, Meath, Westmeath, Laois, Galway, Mayo, Kilkenny, Carlow, Wexford, Waterford, Limerick, Tipperary, Clare.

I've probably missed one or two in there as well but in comparison to 2016 which had Kenny (briefly), Dennis Naughton and Noonan are the only additional ministers, covering Limerick and Galway. So lets not make any sweeping statements around supporters dropping off due to a lack of minsterial position because it is nothing other than speculation.

This is it

Helen McEntee is Meath

AndrewJRenko

hardybuck wrote: »

It would seem both the blaa and the farl are unacceptable as the South East doesn't have a Minister either!

Waterford city hasn't had one in over a decade.

Deleted User wrote: »

By Elections in general are protest votes. There will be complete apathy by FF & FG voters outside of Dublin and Cork after this. I'm a FG supporter, even talking to FF voters and campaigners this evening they are disgusted at MM. If there was a by election tomorrow in Mayo a 2nd SF TD would be elected, i'd expect the same pattern in lots of other constituencies.

With Waterford (the entire county, including the city) at 2% of population and Mayo at 2.5%, why would you expect them to have a Minister in a Cabinet of 17?

AndrewJRenko

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

With Waterford (the entire county, including the city) at 2% of population and Mayo at 2.5%, why would you expect them to have a Minister in a Cabinet of 17?

I don't. Its the whole western region that doesn't have any representation. From Limerick up to Donegal is 942K people, its 20% of the population of the country.

hardybuck

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

With Waterford (the entire county, including the city) at 2% of population and Mayo at 2.5%, why would you expect them to have a Minister in a Cabinet of 17?

I don't.

But another poster is incredulous at an area of the country not having one. I'm reminding them that this is normal, evidenced by one of Ireland's 5 cities not having one in over a decade, and the South East region not having one in current and last Governments.

hardybuck

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I don't. Its the whole western region that doesn't have any representational. from Limerick up to Donegal its 942K people. 20% of the population of the country.

Perhaps it was over represented in recent years and this balances things out for a while.

3/5 of Ireland's cities don't have a Minister either.

Chips Lovell

Ministries are national portfolios. They're not there to hand out benefits to their constituencies or regions. It shouldn't matter what constituency a minister is from.

Chips Lovell

Chips Lovell wrote: »

Ministries are national portfolios. They're not there to hand out benefits to their constituencies or regions. It shouldn't matter what constituency a minister is from.

It shouldn't, buy nearly always does. Your forgetting FF are back in government.

hardybuck

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It shouldn't, buy nearly always does. Your forgetting FF are back in government.

Do you just miss Ringer who gave 10-12% of his Department's funding to projects in Mayo, and came out with beauties like "I love money and I love spending it"!?

hardybuck

hardybuck wrote: »

Do you just miss Ringer who gave 10-12% of his Department's funding to projects in Mayo, and came out with beauties like "I love money and I love spending it"!?

He was minister for rural development, im surprised it wasn't more.

hardybuck

[Deleted User] wrote: »

He was minister for rural development, im surprised it wasn't more.

One of the best examples of a Minister who lavished money on his own constituency.

hardybuck

hardybuck wrote: »

One of the best examples of a Minister who lavished money on his own constituency.

Its a rural community, he was the minister for rural development. The county probably has more coastline and more islands than anywhere else. Only Donegal or Kerry would compare for rural communities. Sounds like he should of spent more.

Mayo has the largest area in any county which is eligible for Clár funding, under boundaries set out by the department in 2006. Mayo received 11.2% of Clár’s budget and rightly so, the county witnessed 2nd greatest population decrease in the State by percentage but greatest by number; a population decrease of 24.4% since 1926, or 42,183 (172,690 in 1926 v’s 130,507 in 2016).

The money clearly went to a county that deserved this sort of support, it’s inline with the programs remit and objectives. You are also only talking about just over 2 million, it would not even register for most departments.

tayto lover

Erin McGreehan - 1 year a Councillor and now elected to Seanad Eireann by Micheal Martin.
Nice cushy number followed by a pension for someone just into politics.

hardybuck

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Its a rural community, he was the minister for rural development. The county probably has more coastline and more islands than anywhere else. Only Donegal or Kerry would compare for rural communities. Sounds like he should of spent more.

Mayo has the largest area in any county which is eligible for Clár funding, under boundaries set out by the department in 2006. Mayo received 11.2% of Clár’s budget and rightly so, the county witnessed 2nd greatest population decrease in the State by percentage but greatest by number; a population decrease of 24.4% since 1926, or 42,183 (172,690 in 1926 v’s 130,507 in 2016).

The money clearly went to a county that deserved this sort of support, it’s inline with the programs remit and objectives

While Mayo is a big county, any assertion that it deserves 10-12% of funding for rural projects is an absolute joke.

The way you're talking there's only about 2-3 counties that have rural communities.

Ringer would have fitted in beautifully to a FF of the mid 00s.

hardybuck

hardybuck wrote: »

While Mayo is a big county, any assertion that it deserves 10-12% of funding for rural projects is an absolute joke.

The way you're talking there's only about 2-3 counties that have rural communities.

Ringer would have fitted in beautifully to a FF of the mid 00s.

I think your getting upset about nothing, the total budget for Clar is 21 million a year. The new photocopier for the Dail almost cost the same as the funding Mayo got for having the biggest Clar area. You are not going to see anybody getting excited over it. I don't think thats the worst thing a minister has done, but its easy to portray that Ringer is giving billions to Mayo i suppose.

hotmail.com

Gender outrage about the cabinet has been replaced with geographic outrage.

Gone are the day of Fianna Fail majority governments where the Taoiseach could spread out ministerial positions around the regions.

Fat lot of good that did for the regions.

Sam Russell

theguzman wrote: »

How long before Sinn Fein, various leftwing factions and rural Independent TD's unite to bring down this Government. It won't take much to get massive protests going and this Government have a majority of 4 TD's, the law of averages suggests one or two will die, some sleazeballs will resign, Fianna Fail full of corruption, some will jump ship to save their own bacon. With enough unrest and agitation they can be got rid of.

The Gov has a majority of 7, plus a few independent TDs willing to vote with them.

There are 84 TDs in the Gov parties, and there are 77 TDs that are not in those parties. Some of those opposition TDs are of the FG gene pool, and some are of the FF gene pool, and some are jealously of the Independent gene pool. Plus the Labour Party and the Soc Dems are distinct parties that will not necessarily vote down the Gov.

It is possible that even if the Greens walk out of Gov, that the Gov could continue as a minority Gov with the support of independents.

The Gov do not usually win bi elections, but there are three parties in this Gov, so which one will lose the bi election?

Sam Russell

Sam Russell wrote: »

The Gov has a majority of 7, plus a few independent TDs willing to vote with them.

There are 84 TDs in the Gov parties, and there are 77 TDs that are not in those parties. Some of those opposition TDs are of the FG gene pool, and some are of the FF gene pool, and some are jealously of the Independent gene pool. Plus the Labour Party and the Soc Dems are distinct parties that will not necessarily vote down the Gov.

It is possible that even if the Greens walk out of Gov, that the Gov could continue as a minority Gov with the support of independents.

The Gov do not usually win bi elections, but there are three parties in this Gov, so which one will lose the bi election?

Will be interesting to see what loyalty there is in government in winter when budgets need to be cut.

jmayo

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

You know the difference between a photocopier and a printer, right?

Ehh most photocopiers these days are also printers and scanners.

Is this the first time a deputy leader of a major party failed to get a ministerial portfolio?

martin is going to have to watch his back.

And when people harp on about giving the jobs to the best individuals how does that explain Foley, first time TD at 3rd or 4th time of asking, getting a major ministerial job?

sinn fein must be licking their lips as it leaves huge chunk of country with no ministerial post.
And it isn't just about Mayo, it is about entire Western seaboard, bar Kerry, right into Offaly with no one.
It is about population of over 1 million without any minister to represent any of their areas.

And when people ask why it is important, it is because central government control all the real spending in this country.

It is two major cities with no cabinet say whats so ever.

Central government decide on major infrastructure projects, central government can decide on the fate of airports of which 4 now have no cabinet representation anywhere near them.
Central government controls HSE.
Well supposedly at least.

Watch the results from next European election for Midlands/North West constituency if there hasn't been major change in this.

Water John

The story is that Ringer was a Junior Minister to Varadkar. Varadkar made a general announcement about rural funding. Ringer was fuming and demanded a meeting with Varadkar. Varadkar set the meeting for 9.30 am. He knew that would annoy Ring, having to come up from Mayo the night before. Ring went in bulling and ranting. Varadkar listened quietly after a while he says to Ring, the budget is in your Dept, spend it as you like. Varadkar had a great laugh and Ring got the joke.
Now that is cute hoorism FG style.

AndrewJRenko

jmayo wrote: »

Ehh most photocopiers these days are also printers and scanners.

There's a difference between a printer that can print 100 A4 pages double sided, and a printer that can print a 200 page booklet on glossy paper with a hard cover
and bind it.

eagle eye

BonnieSituation wrote:

All the more reason to not give a crap about a particular region for a ministry and break the cycle.

So let's have no ministers from Dublin then. You know where more money is spent per capita than anywhere else in the country.

ArmaniJeanss

Presumably the Junior Ministries will be more evenly spread geographically.
And to be honest these are a lot more important for the ability to get funds to constituencies.
Like Dublin Central will gain pretty much nothing from having the Minister for Finance for another term, as there's little he can do to target funds specifically to one area. Same would apply regardless of what constituency he was from.

But a Junior Minister at Arts or Tourism or Industry with a nice 8 figure budget to distribute is a more valuable prize for a constituency.

So to me seems to be people getting upset over something that doesn't matter.

Chips Lovell

Deleted User wrote: »

It shouldn't, buy nearly always does. Your forgetting FF are back in government.

It would be an incredibly short-sighted approach this time around. Given the tripartite nature of the new government, each party has a fairly limited number of cabinet seats. If ministers begin showing largesse to their own constituencies, the party will be punished by the (far more numerous) voters in other constituencies.

There are lots of situations in politics where, whatever you do, someone is going to criticise you. If they'd done the opposite and divvied out the cabinet seats on the basis of geography, they'd have been accused pandering to parish politics rather than selecting the best people for the job, all in the middle of a grave crisis.

In situations like this, where criticism is inevitable, you may as well just do the right thing.

https://westernpeople.ie/2020/06/28/a-cabinet-fit-for-cromwell/#.XviY0G1KjX5
A CABINET FIT FOR CROMWELL, not an unexpected headline.... maybe a bit dramatic.

jmayo

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

There's a difference between a printer that can print 100 A4 pages double sided, and a printer that can print a 200 page booklet on glossy paper with a hard cover
and bind it.

Yeah we know the printer that was bought for Leinster House was an industrial scale printer.
Total overkill and a complete fooking joke.
Why oh why do I think someone somewhere did ok out of that little deal.

Deleted User wrote: »

https://westernpeople.ie/2020/06/28/a-cabinet-fit-for-cromwell/#.XviY0G1KjX5
A CABINET FIT FOR CROMWELL, not an unexpected headline.... maybe a bit dramatic.

They do have point that over 1 million people in a region of two major cities, 4 airports, half the size of Ireland has no voting power at cabinet.
And because this is Ireland that is important.

But I guess the two Connacht people at the cabinet meetings can sit there and swallow any decisions that have negative bearing on their region.

Also find it incomprehensible you would not alone shaft your deputy leader, but also give them opportunity to be one enforcing discipline as chief whip.

Would anyone wonder how hard Calleary will work to enforce his leaders will if the cr** is hitting the fan.

Roanmore

jmayo wrote: »

sinn fein must be licking their lips as it leaves huge chunk of country with no ministerial post.
And it isn't just about Mayo, it is about entire Western seaboard, bar Kerry, right into Offaly with no one.
It is about population of over 1 million without any minister to represent any of their areas.

Why would SF be licking their lips? They're not in Government so it's not like they can do anything for those regions?
Sure they can turn around and say there are no Ministers in the area but that's going to sound tired after a while.

jmayo

Roanmore wrote: »

Why would SF be licking their lips? They're not in Government so it's not like they can do anything for those regions?
Sure they can turn around and say there are no Ministers in the area but that's going to sound tired after a while.

Because they will use argument that it is no use voting for FF or indeed FG, because they don't care about you.
sf was a protest vote for some and it could become a protest vote for even more.

Then add in fact the region with no minister will be one of the ones severely hit by any of the new green taxes that will be dreamt up to try fill government coffers in the years ahead.

Expect FF and FG to get hammering in any election in near future in the West, and that includes all the way from Limerick to Donegal.

Added to that mix is fact leadership of two main parties now are not going to be popular within their own party in whole swath of the country.

AndrewJRenko

jmayo wrote: »

Yeah we know the printer that was bought for Leinster House was an industrial scale printer.
Total overkill and a complete fooking joke.
Why oh why do I think someone somewhere did ok out of that little deal.


.

How exactly did you work out that it was total overkill?

Sam Russell

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

How exactly did you work out that it was total overkill?

Did not Sinn Fein spend a fortune on ink cartridges to print the leaflets? This printer will allow TDs, and Senators to print calendars for all their constituents and it will cost them nothing.

Expect huge amounts of junk mail from your local politician full of Local News, Social Welfare advice, The new tax laws, News about local projects, protest campaigns about new charges, etc etc etc.

This printer can churn them out by the million.

AndrewJRenko

Sam Russell wrote: »

Did not Sinn Fein spend a fortune on ink cartridges to print the leaflets? This printer will allow TDs, and Senators to print calendars for all their constituents and it will cost them nothing.

Expect huge amounts of junk mail from your local politician full of Local News, Social Welfare advice, The new tax laws, News about local projects, protest campaigns about new charges, etc etc etc.

This printer can churn them out by the million.

The Sinn Fein toner cartidges is a bit dated at this stage.

As I understand it, the new printer was specced to do the same printing as the old, obsolete printer at lower running cost.

Now we can have a long debate about whether TDs should be printing leaflets, but that's really a different question.