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General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    And if I was FG, I would take my beating and regroup. Shoring up another failure FF FG C&S government will hurt them more long term.

    Michael may have no options after if FG won't play ball.
    No party is obliged to do a deal with any other. Policy-wise SF are backing two that FF will not entertain and most of the rest of what they want to do is a gamble on CT. Then there is the historical stuff which Martin is very vociferous about and their stance is not to go into government with them.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,258 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    blanch152 wrote: »
    That is one narrative.

    Another one is that FG lose seats on Saturday, Varadkar takes the position that the electorate have voted them down on two successive occasions, they are listening to the electorate and will take a step back, go into opposition and it is up to the other parties with nearly 120 seats between them to figure it out.

    When they fail, he can go back to the electorate with the message that the others can't do it without us, if you want a government you have to give us more votes and seats.


    He could do that, but he would most likely get a hammering for causing another GE so soon.
    First he would be saying "We heard what you are saying and we are taking a step back" then less than a wet week after it`s "Give us more seats so we can form a government".


    Most, if not all, of FG`s strategy in this election has been a shambles, but to attempt that is a level of stupidity where even the most diehard FG supporter would have trouble giving them a vote of any preference on.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    charlie14 wrote: »
    He could do that, but he would most likely get a hammering for causing another GE so soon.
    First he would be saying "We heard what you are saying and we are taking a step back" then less than a wet week after it`s "Give us more seats so we can form a government".


    Most, if not all, of FG`s strategy in this election has been a shambles, but to attempt that is a level of stupidity where even the most diehard FG supporter would have trouble giving them a vote of any preference on.
    The biggest party will try to form a government. That should be FF and they are clear on who they will not work with and people who vote for FF understand that. If an agreement can't be reached and voters of all parties will have their own views on that we'll be back at it soon enough.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,371 ✭✭✭Phoebas


    loyatemu wrote: »
    If SF do top the poll (which I still think is unlikely) expect them to play very hard ball in any negotiations.

    SF must be eyeing the possibility of no combination being able to firm a government (after having rejected SF) followed by another election in the early summer.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,258 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    is_that_so wrote: »
    The biggest party will try to form a government. That should be FF and they are clear on who they will not work with and people who vote for FF understand that. If an agreement can't be reached and voters of all parties will have their own views on that we'll be back at it soon enough.


    All true, but if FF are the largest party and we end up with FG causing a GE because of refusing to reciprocate with a C&S agreement then I could not see it going well for them.


    Interestingly enough, there are still 17% undecided from this latest poll.

    This late in the game I`m surprised the percentage is so high.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    charlie14 wrote: »
    All true, but if FF are the largest party and we end up with FG causing a GE because of refusing to reciprocate with a C&S agreement then I could not see it going well for them.


    Interestingly enough, there are still 17% undecided from this latest poll.

    This late in the game I`m surprised the percentage is so high.
    Yes it is pretty high. I don't think they'll refuse a C&S but will move to limit it. I think other entities would suffer more if end up back at the polls again.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,258 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Yes it is pretty high. I don't think they'll refuse a C&S but will move to limit it. I think other entities would suffer more if end up back at the polls again.


    Perhaps, but if we end up back at the polling booths because of that I could see it being a very hard sell for FG.


    Nothing more than a feeling, but I`m getting the impression that 17% may be keeping their powder dry waiting for the Jerry Maguire "Show me the money" moment before deciding.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    charlie14 wrote: »
    Perhaps, but if we end up back at the polling booths because of that I could see it being a very hard sell for FG.


    Nothing more than a feeling, but I`m getting the impression that 17% may be keeping their powder dry waiting for the Jerry Maguire "Show me the money" moment before deciding.
    They really can't be blamed if the biggest party can't do a deal with others. A C&S is a courtesy agreement but not mandatory and one I'd expect them to drive a hard bargain over. Tonight may be a deciding moment for some voters.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 71,051 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    is_that_so wrote: »
    They really can't be blamed if the biggest party can't do a deal with others. A C&S is a courtesy agreement but not mandatory and one I'd expect them to drive a hard bargain over. Tonight may be a deciding moment for some voters.

    I think tonight will be mostly box office for voters.

    They'll be tuning in fireworks and wisecracks mostly.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,945 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    charlie14 wrote: »
    All true, but if FF are the largest party and we end up with FG causing a GE because of refusing to reciprocate with a C&S agreement then I could not see it going well for them.


    Interestingly enough, there are still 17% undecided from this latest poll.

    This late in the game I`m surprised the percentage is so high.

    It won't be just FG refusing to reciprocate with a C&S agreement, it will be SF refusing to step up to the plate again.

    FF are actually going to be in a difficult position. The electorate is polarised. 30% don't want FG in government. 36% don't want SF in government.

    If FF go in with FG, SF have the 30% all to themselves, if they go in with SF, then FG have the 36% all to themselves.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,143 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    charlie14 wrote: »
    Perhaps, but if we end up back at the polling booths because of that I could see it being a very hard sell for FG.

    You seem to have decided that any failure to form a government will be the fault of FG. As said, first port of call is for the biggest party to form a government so ball will be in FF's court. In theory, SF on their own is the easier option but all the rest will probably do too. SF are attracting votes from people who want a change of government, I don't think they will be holding those voters if they don't do everything possible to be part of the next government, be that with FF or all the rest. FG will be bottom of the list in culpability if he government can't be formed and another election is required.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 71,051 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    blanch152 wrote: »
    It won't be just FG refusing to reciprocate with a C&S agreement, it will be SF refusing to step up to the plate again.

    FF are actually going to be in a difficult position. The electorate is polarised. 30% don't want FG in government. 36% don't want SF in government.

    If FF go in with FG, SF have the 30% all to themselves, if they go in with SF, then FG have the 36% all to themselves.

    32% don't want Fine Gael.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,067 ✭✭✭Gunmonkey


    Did SF explain the finances for implementing their policies last night ? I was looking at it and Mary Lou was lost.

    One of SF senior candidates called to my door and failed to explain how his party will implement their policies without tax increases ?

    Because they dont know themselves. Everytime its come up, we are told "its been costed by the Dept of Finance".......which means F all in reality!

    You can "cost" something easily: going to the cinema, you can cost up the amount fairly handily: lets 2 tickets @ €12 each, 2 drinks and a lrg popcorn @ €10 leads to a costed total amount of €32.

    Rock up with only a fiver means you may have costed it but cant afford it!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,781 ✭✭✭✭keane2097


    Gunmonkey wrote: »
    Because they dont know themselves. Everytime its come up, we are told "its been costed by the Dept of Finance".......which means F all in reality!

    You can "cost" something easily: going to the cinema, you can cost up the amount fairly handily: lets 2 tickets @ €12 each, 2 drinks and a lrg popcorn @ €10 leads to a costed total amount of €32.

    Rock up with only a fiver means you may have costed it but cant afford it!

    I don't really think your analogy reflects the reality of what is meant by all parties when they say their manifestos have been costed.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 12,536 Mod ✭✭✭✭Amirani


    keane2097 wrote: »
    I don't really think your analogy reflects the reality of what is meant by all parties when they say their manifestos have been costed.

    Sinn Fein had individual parts of their manifesto costed in isolation.

    This is an entirely different exercise to taking all our their proposed measures in their entirety. The whole "costing" thing is nonsense, from most/all of the parties.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,191 ✭✭✭RandomViewer


    L1011 wrote: »
    Candidate is extra-specially unpopular; dumped on the first count in May and the bulk of her vote base from 2014 is in Kildare South now. Also has about ten posters across the entire constituency and I'm seeing less online activity than in May

    If she gets in on a national SF wave it would probably be the biggest surprise of the election.

    Stagg still going? Must be old as the hills


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,172 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Stagg still going? Must be old as the hills

    Yes. Suspect it could be the oldest average age for the traditional party candidates in any constituency as Durkan is a very similar age and Murphy is >65 also.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,258 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Pete_Cavan wrote: »
    You seem to have decided that any failure to form a government will be the fault of FG. As said, first port of call is for the biggest party to form a government so ball will be in FF's court. In theory, SF on their own is the easier option but all the rest will probably do too. SF are attracting votes from people who want a change of government, I don't think they will be holding those voters if they don't do everything possible to be part of the next government, be that with FF or all the rest. FG will be bottom of the list in culpability if he government can't be formed and another election is required.


    If FF end up wit most seats and refuse too do a deal with SF as they have said. If the numbers stack up for a FG C&S and FG refuse, or appear to set unreasonable demands resulting in another GE, then I very much doubt they would be looked upon as bottom of the list in culpability.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,945 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    charlie14 wrote: »
    If FF end up wit most seats and refuse too do a deal with SF as they have said. If the numbers stack up for a FG C&S and FG refuse, or appear to set unreasonable demands resulting in another GE, then I very much doubt they would be looked upon as bottom of the list in culpability.



    FF are top of the list for blame, SF second, in that scenario.

    The parties that lose seats in a general election carry the least responsibility to form a government because the electorate have decided.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,174 ✭✭✭endainoz


    blanch152 wrote:
    FF are top of the list for blame, SF second, in that scenario.

    So it's their fault that other parties won't go into government with them?

    Yeah that makes sense.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    charlie14 wrote: »
    If FF end up wit most seats and refuse too do a deal with SF as they have said. If the numbers stack up for a FG C&S and FG refuse, or appear to set unreasonable demands resulting in another GE, then I very much doubt they would be looked upon as bottom of the list in culpability.
    What has happened in other countries is that the smaller entities get punished and votes come back to the main parties. While voting patterns may seem alien, voters do become aware of their choices and adjust. You'd want some level of dislike to blame a potentially future opposition party in FG for others not being able to do a deal. All parties have red lines. Just because voters don't see them does not mean they don't exist and they certainly can't demand that they cross them.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    endainoz wrote: »
    So it's their fault that other parties won't go into government with them?

    Yeah that makes sense.
    Their policies largely don't align with any possible partner so yeah it is and they don't fancy the idea of being a junior partner but that's true of the three of them. FG seem to be the most flexible of them in terms of deals.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,258 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    blanch152 wrote: »
    It won't be just FG refusing to reciprocate with a C&S agreement, it will be SF refusing to step up to the plate again.

    FF are actually going to be in a difficult position. The electorate is polarised. 30% don't want FG in government. 36% don't want SF in government.

    If FF go in with FG, SF have the 30% all to themselves, if they go in with SF, then FG have the 36% all to themselves.


    If FF win most seats and stick to ruling out SF, then it wont be a case of SF refusing to step up to the plate.


    The only other possible government in that scenario then would be a FF led one with a C&S agreement from FG.
    If FG refuse, or are deemed to be unreasonable, then a potential bar of soap for them in how their voters are going to react if it is the cause of another GE which would most likely return SF as the largest party.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    charlie14 wrote: »
    If FF win most seats and stick to ruling out SF, then it wont be a case of SF refusing to step up to the plate.


    The only other possible government in that scenario then would be a FF led one with a C&S agreement from FG.
    If FG refuse, or are deemed to be unreasonable, then a potential bar of soap for them in how their voters are going to react if it is the cause of another GE which would most likely return SF as the largest party.
    Who's going to deem them unreasonable?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Gunmonkey wrote: »
    Because they dont know themselves. Everytime its come up, we are told "its been costed by the Dept of Finance".......which means F all in reality!

    You can "cost" something easily: going to the cinema, you can cost up the amount fairly handily: lets 2 tickets @ €12 each, 2 drinks and a lrg popcorn @ €10 leads to a costed total amount of €32.

    Rock up with only a fiver means you may have costed it but cant afford it!
    It just means this is the correct cost of such a measure but no comment as to the advisability of the policy.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Amirani wrote: »
    Sinn Fein had individual parts of their manifesto costed in isolation.

    This is an entirely different exercise to taking all our their proposed measures in their entirety. The whole "costing" thing is nonsense, from most/all of the parties.
    It is but there's less of an issue with other parties, especially maybe the Greens, as they tend to be tinkering policies and they usually steer clear of the words abolish and tax in the same sentence.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,945 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    charlie14 wrote: »
    If FF win most seats and stick to ruling out SF, then it wont be a case of SF refusing to step up to the plate.


    The only other possible government in that scenario then would be a FF led one with a C&S agreement from FG.
    If FG refuse, or are deemed to be unreasonable, then a potential bar of soap for them in how their voters are going to react if it is the cause of another GE which would most likely return SF as the largest party.

    Martin will be clever. He will ask Sinn Fein to apologise for the actions of the IRA, to co-operate with a statutory investigation into the Mairia Cahill and Paudie McGahon cases and to come clean on incidents like Paul Quinn. His hatred runs deeper than mine.

    Sinn Fein will refuse, leaving questions.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,258 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    blanch152 wrote: »
    FF are top of the list for blame, SF second, in that scenario.

    The parties that lose seats in a general election carry the least responsibility to form a government because the electorate have decided.


    If both FF and FG are ruling out SF how are they second to blame ?


    I imagine if they two parties that ruled them out do not come to an arrangement ,then the one that is deemed by voters as being the the most to blame for another GE will get a hell of a kicking.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    A bit too early to discuss but basically it's the Dail failing to elect a Taoiseach. One would suspect the President won't be overly eager to dissolve the Dail since the people have spoken. He possibly send them back for another round of talks, if that's within his power.
    Way ahead of myself, Saturday first.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,258 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Who's going to deem them unreasonable?


    That would be a call for the electorate if it resulted in another GE as to which they view as being unreasonable.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    charlie14 wrote: »
    That would be a call for the electorate if it resulted in another GE as to which they view as being unreasonable.
    I think we're close to a plague on all their houses and I really can't see this transpiring.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,258 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    is_that_so wrote: »
    I think we're close to a plague on all their houses and I really can't see this transpiring.


    If it did transpire, if one party is seen as culpable then I could see it being a major plague on their house.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 71,051 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Martin will be clever. He will ask Sinn Fein to apologise for the actions of the IRA, to co-operate with a statutory investigation into the Mairia Cahill and Paudie McGahon cases and to come clean on incidents like Paul Quinn. His hatred runs deeper than mine.

    Sinn Fein will refuse, leaving questions.

    Martin has been doing that and it is the opposite of 'clever'.

    He is two points down on the people he is asking pointless questions of.
    The voters know the answers, they are sick and tired of them.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Water John wrote: »
    A bit too early to discuss but basically it's the Dail failing to elect a Taoiseach. One would suspect the President won't be overly eager to dissolve the Dail since the people have spoken. He possibly send them back for another round of talks, if that's within his power.
    Way ahead of myself, Saturday first.
    In that case he could refuse to dissolve it if the majority of Dail members disagree with the Taoiseach. It could still end up like 1994 deal if the first government fails and someone else gets nominated Taoiseach but with the likely numbers a new election would probably be the outcome.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    charlie14 wrote: »
    If it did transpire, if one party is seen as culpable then I could see it being a major plague on their house.
    No one party can be held responsible if the Dail fails to accept all nominees for Taoiseach.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,945 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    charlie14 wrote: »
    If both FF and FG are ruling out SF how are they second to blame ?


    I imagine if they two parties that ruled them out do not come to an arrangement ,then the one that is deemed by voters as being the the most to blame for another GE will get a hell of a kicking.

    Will Sinn Fein step up to the plate and agree a Confidence and Supply Arrangement?

    Why do you see the onus on FG only?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 71,051 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Will Sinn Fein step up to the plate and agree a Confidence and Supply Arrangement?

    Why do you see the onus on FG only?

    Are Leo and Michael going to come down off the fence and discuss a C&S?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,508 ✭✭✭funkey_monkey


    As an outsider to this election, is there any chance of Simon Coveney somehow remaining in position for the brexit talks or will whoever come in want that position as a top role?
    Just wondering if there will be any continuity in regards to Irelands brexit team in the forthcoming trade talks stage.

    Do people think he has done well? Personally I think he comes across very well whenever I've heard him speak and I see him as a better leader than Leo who does not appear to have the mannerisms/characteristics of a leader.

    It would be interesting if SF got Coveneys current role as that would mean they would have a seat on two sides of the table up up at Stormont and I'm not sure how that would play out.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Are Leo and Michael going to come down off the fence and discuss a C&S?
    Not until a possible deal has been lined up so about a month away at least.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,664 ✭✭✭sid waddell


    Kerry poll:

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1224771027827339265

    Might have been better if this poll had never been released as it means Danny Healy Rae's vote will probably get shored up now.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Will Sinn Fein step up to the plate and agree a Confidence and Supply Arrangement?

    Why do you see the onus on FG only?


    Have a guess, FF have refused to work with SF. Don't you get it?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 71,051 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Not until a possible deal has been lined up so about a month away at least.

    If I ran SF and they finished first or second in the % vote and the two other's tried to thrash out a deal first and then came to me after they had failed...I'd be telling them were to go. Or making a fairly large demand..rotating Taoiseach or some such, to do business.

    It would be something like what the arrogant power share party's would do, followed quickly by their supporters and the anti SF crowd blaming SF for the failure to form a government. :)


  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,496 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    Kerry poll:

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1224771027827339265

    Might have been better if this poll had never been released as it means Danny Healy Rae's vote will probably get shored up now.

    Find this hard to believe to be honest, just like the Galway one. The Green Party polling twice DHR doesn’t seem very realistic

    The Green Party also proposing to cancel a major employment prospect in North Kerry (Shannon LNG) isn’t going to help their prospects

    Michael O’Regan’s prediction earlier on Newstalk (2 Healy Raes, Daly, Foley, Griffin) would be more realistic and tracking the polls. Perhaps Brassil but Foley has a large backing in Tralee.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    If I ran SF and they finished first or second in the % vote and the two other's tried to thrash out a deal first and then came to me after they had failed...I'd be telling them were to go. Or making a fairly large demand..rotating Taoiseach or some such, to do business.

    It would be something like what the arrogant power share party's would do, followed quickly by their supporters and the anti SF crowd blaming SF for the failure to form a government. :)
    Well it would be the overall numbers in the Dail. FF will go to others first. They won't do a deal with SF and apparently SF's policies are red lines anyway so like that would work.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    I think important thing is there's going to be some right dog fights in most constituencies now, should make for a fun week and a few bull O'Donoghue moments on Sunday.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,779 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Kerry poll:

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1224771027827339265

    Might have been better if this poll had never been released as it means Danny Healy Rae's vote will probably get shored up now.

    Anyone know what Danny is polling so badly here?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Worth noting that in the same poll four years ago, DHR also recorded 4%, so caveat emptor.


  • Registered Users Posts: 28 giggs76


    Any ideas where i could watch the prime time debate online from the uk?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,346 ✭✭✭easypazz


    giggs76 wrote: »
    Any ideas where i could watch the prime time debate online from the uk?

    I think every poll needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

    This one will scatter everywhere.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Can't see any reason why it would be geoblocked on the RTE Player?


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