General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

PopePalpatine

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Can't see any reason why it would be geoblocked on the RTE Player?

The servers cannae take any more, captain!

hotmail.com

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Worth noting that in the same poll four years ago, DHR also recorded 4%, so caveat emptor.

Irish have a habit of voting in an independent at one election and then dumping them out the next for no apparent reason.

This poll confirms again the SF trend. A few weeks ago, SF were contemplating losing this seat!

Sir Oxman

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Worth noting that in the same poll four years ago, DHR also recorded 4%, so caveat emptor.

Yeah but the other one was on 33% then!

cameramonkey

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Worth noting that in the same poll four years ago, DHR also recorded 4%, so caveat emptor.

4 years ago MHR got 25.7 and Danny got 12.6 so between the two they had about 38%. Danny got nearly 4000 transfer from the brother to get him over the line. Their combined % in the poll before the election was 37 so they managed to split the vote well. This time around the poll shows them on a combined % of 26%, that makes things a lot tighter for them. The quota will be somewhere around 14,000, 26% gives them about 21,000 votes between them. They need 7000 transfers to get the MHR over the line.

sid waddell

hotmail.com wrote: »

Irish have a habit of voting in an independent at one election and then dumping them out the next for no apparent reason.

I'm sure there have been a few but I can't recall too many of such. Jerry Cowley in Mayo was one. Katherine Zappone will probably be another one this time.

But certainly not of the rural, rabid populist ex-FF/FG type. Once they're in, they're in pretty much for good.

Healy Rae x 2, Lowry, Mattie McGrath, Noel Grealish, Boxer Moran, Fitzmaurice, Naughten, these guys will never lose. Collins in Cork South West is probably another in that vein. Neil Blaney was the original of the species.

If Danny Healy Rae lost it would still be a massive shock, but maybe there will actually come a time when the Healy Raes finally bite off more than they can chew.

Itssoeasy

funkey_monkey wrote: »

As an outsider to this election, is there any chance of Simon Coveney somehow remaining in position for the brexit talks or will whoever come in want that position as a top role?
Just wondering if there will be any continuity in regards to Irelands brexit team in the forthcoming trade talks stage.

Do people think he has done well? Personally I think he comes across very well whenever I've heard him speak and I see him as a better leader than Leo who does not appear to have the mannerisms/characteristics of a leader.

It would be interesting if SF got Coveneys current role as that would mean they would have a seat on two sides of the table up up at Stormont and I'm not sure how that would play out.

If FG are able to stay in government then I think that he's a cert to be involved in the negotiations that will happen this year. If it's FF then presumably it'll be Lisa chambers and whoever would fill the foreign affairs portfolio in FF.

I think personally that he had FG in government can be rightly praised for what they were apart of. I think he has from what I've seen, a better ability to get into the meat of the role he has.

corkie

Tonight @MiriamOCal & @mcculld will host #GE2020
Leaders’ Debate with @LeoVaradkar @MichealMartinTD & @MaryLouMcDonald

9.35pm @RTEOne

Straight after debate, @CaitrionaPerry will be in the “spin room” with a panel of guests to assess.

11.05pm @RTEOne

Quote: - https://twitter.com/rte/status/1224663823682023425

Will you be tuning in?


Edit:- If you want to discus the show without constraints of the Politics forum: -
Television (General) Prime Time The Leaders Debate

FrancieBrady

Looks like TIpp election might go ahead due to fears the entire result could be challenged.

I thought Mattie might have a case yesterday. Seems wrong to me to cancel it.

NIMAN

I'll watch to hear the same answers again.

I fully expect Leo and Micheal to gang up on MLMD and try to discredit SF as they are running scared.

c.p.w.g.w

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Looks like TIpp election might go ahead due to fears the entire result could be challenged.

I thought Mattie might have a case yesterday. Seems wrong to me to cancel it.

Whats the issue?

Zetor19

Hopefully marylou gives it back with interest to the d4/rte/tans.

An Ciarraioch

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

Whats the issue?

AG reportedly received legal advice that voting in all constituencies must be held within 30 days of dissolution.

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1224799886152957955

sid waddell

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Looks like TIpp election might go ahead due to fears the entire result could be challenged.

I thought Mattie might have a case yesterday. Seems wrong to me to cancel it.

I think what happens in Britain is that if a party-affiliated candidate dies the election is put back, but if an independent candidate dies, the election goes ahead.

Makes you think though what would have happened if it had been one of the Healy Raes, because they're almost a party in themselves, and would surely have had another family member to take the place of a hypothetical deceased candidate, or would have been demanding such at any rate.

Phoebas

We could we swapping Simon Coveney for David Cullinane.

charlie14

blanch152 wrote: »

Will Sinn Fein step up to the plate and agree a Confidence and Supply Arrangement?

Why do you see the onus on FG only?

It is not up to Sinn Fein to offer a Confidence and Supply Agreement as with only 42 candidates running they are unlikely to be the largest party.


It will be up to the largest party to approach a party if the numbers work for a C&SA, or one of either FF and FG to propose a coalition with Sinn Fein.

That is if FG and FF do not agree a coalition government, which is highly unlikely imo.

Water John

Well who then wrote the Law saying, if a candidate dies after nomination closes, the process has to be repeated? One Law doesn't sync with the other.

easypazz

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

AG reportedly received legal advice that voting in all constituencies must be held within 30 days of dissolution.

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1224799886152957955

What if there are red alert storm warning? Unlikely but in theory possible.

A light-hearted alternative for those not up to the political battles and would prefer to just comment in a fun way- rotten eggs and tomatoes half price in the foyer:D

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058047873&page=43
TV Forum rules apply- slagging the suits and dresses gets you bonus points

Sierra Oscar

Up to one million potential viewers apparently. This is going to be a big one.

boardise

charlie14 wrote: »

If that was to happen and Martin didn`t go with SF there wuld most likely be another election.
If that happens, while SF might improve their seat numbers FG would most likely get a real hammering losing voters to FF.

A rock and a hard place for FG.

But if FG lose votes and seats again -they can correctly say to the electorate ''we get the message -you want us out of government so we're off to the opposition benches to regroup . Oh -and good luck with the other lads.

blanch152

boardise wrote: »

But if FG lose votes and seats again -they can correctly say to the electorate ''we get the message -you want us out of government so we're off to the opposition benches to regroup . Oh -and good luck with the other lads.

That is what will happen next week.

charlie14

boardise wrote: »

But if FG lose votes and seats again -they can correctly say to the electorate ''we get the message -you want us out of government so we're off to the opposition benches to regroup . Oh -and good luck with the other lads.

They can.
But if it results in another GE do you think they will not be asked on the doorsteps by their own supporters why they did not reciprocate with a C&S Arrangement rather than their being another GE where SF are highly likely to end up as the biggest party?

Sierra Oscar

boardise wrote: »

But if FG lose votes and seats again -they can correctly say to the electorate ''we get the message -you want us out of government so we're off to the opposition benches to regroup . Oh -and good luck with the other lads.

So true and there are plenty in Fine Gael who would be happy with such an outcome rather than trying to cobble together a shaky Government. A time to rebuild in opposition can be a good thing. Look at Fianna Fáil.

Also, the next Government could face plenty of its own difficulties. There are plenty of warning signs when it comes to the global economy.

easypazz

Expect michal daddy drove a bus and bought a house line next

Bishop of hope

charlie14 wrote: »

They can.
But if it results in another GE do you think they will not be asked on the doorsteps by their own supporters why they did not reciprocate with a C&S Arrangement rather than their being another GE where SF are highly likely to end up as the biggest party?

Leo has just said he'd be happy, albeit as a last resort, to do a C&S deal with FF.

sporina

So, with the upcoming election, I cannot see anyone I would like to vote for..

In such a case, which is worse, to just not vote or to spoil your vote?

I am aware of the fact that people died for us to be able to vote etc.. but I don't wanna vote for someone just for the sake of it.. are spoilt votes counted as such?

Kickstart1.3

Bomb and bullets lady isn't doing too well

charlie14

Bishop of hope wrote: »

Leo has just said he'd be happy, albeit as a last resort, to do a C&S deal with FF.

If it is a case of FF ending up with most seats, I couldn`t see he really had many other options.



Other than a coalition with SF that is.

Gringo180

Kickstart1.3 wrote: »

Bomb and bullets lady isn't doing too well

Not as bad as Fine Fail And Fine Gael has done in power for the last few decades.

imme

There is nothing for it OP but to run yourself.

You could be the best thing ever for Ireland!

A spoiled vote has no value whatsoever and your 'message' if that's what you

want to write on a ballot or whatever 'message' whichever you want to send to the

establishment/government/people or whatever doesn't go anywhere or do anything.

You can do it, Sporina for government.

sporina

imme wrote: »

There is nothing for it OP but to run yourself.

You could be the best thing ever for Ireland!

A spoiled vote has no value whatsoever and your 'message' if that's what you

want to write on a ballot or whatever 'message' whichever you want to send to the

establishment/government/people or whatever doesn't go anywhere or do anything.

You can do it, Sporina for government.

are you drunk?
i thought i could get a sensible sincere answer here

Kickstart1.3

Gringo180 wrote: »

Not as bad as Fine Fail And Fine Gael has done in power for the last few decades.

I think they've done well, bar the time labour were the flavour of the day they have held power between them for the last Century
Or is it you mean you haven't done so well while they have been in power?

endacl

This juvenile shyte comes up every time there’s a ballot. Just vote. Make the best bad choice you can, same as the rest of us.

Dramalama80

sporina wrote: »

So, with the upcoming election, I cannot see anyone I would like to vote for..

In such a case, which is worse, to just not vote or to spoil your vote?

I am aware of the fact that people died for us to be able to vote etc.. but I don't wanna vote for someone just for the sake of it.. are spoilt votes counted as such?

It's the same thing as your vote won't count so your just wasting your time going if your just going to spoil your vote.

L1011

Spoiled votes are recorded as spoiled and if its particularly funny it might make the local papers - though that's less likely these days with less journos.

If there is absolutely nobody you want to vote for and absolutely nobody you'd completely hate to see elected (moreso than everyone else) go and spoil it. If there is even one person you absolutely hate more than anyone else, go vote against them.

Bishop of hope

charlie14 wrote: »

If it is a case of FF ending up with most seats, I couldn`t see he really had many other options.



Other than a coalition with SF that is.

I don't see that happening now.
FG are going to try to get their base support back and I believe the would step away from Govt rather than take a chance on going into a SF coalition.
FF would I think, and mostly because this election is more than likely MMs last shot at it.

imme

sporina wrote: »

are you drunk?
i thought i could get a sensible sincere answer here

and you're the one who doesn't want to use their vote.
there should be an intelligence test to post on boards methinks.

L1011

My take so far:

Martin a bit behind previous performance, Varadkar a bit ahead of previous performance, McDonald significantly ahead of previous performance (but still third).

Those NI figures she pled for a fact check on are likely to have been verified and memorised by both Leo and Martin in wait of the second to use them.

Kickstart1.3

The two boys have the gloves off for the Bombs and Bullets lady tonight

namloc1980

The 20k homeless measure in NI is a completely different metric to the 10k in Ireland. Comparing apples and oranges basically.

maynooth_rules

Mary Lou is getting gutted tonight. Her stuttering over the special criminals court was hard to watch. Glad she was pushed on the question. Leo also rinsed her on Northern Irelands homeless figures. Mary Lou should have turned down the interview. Her popularity was flying due to her not being put to the test in a proper debate.
Leo comfortably winning this debate. May be too late for him to turn it around though

sporina

L1011 wrote: »

Spoiled votes are recorded as spoiled and if its particularly funny it might make the local papers - though that's less likely these days with less journos.

If there is absolutely nobody you want to vote for and absolutely nobody you'd completely hate to see elected (moreso than everyone else) go and spoil it. If there is even one person you absolutely hate more than anyone else, go vote against them.

thanks

Pawwed Rig

If you want to goto the effort of taking 30 mins to an hour out of your Saturday so that a civil servant doing a nixer on a Saturday can add your vote to the spoiled pile without even a second glance then go for it. Best case scenario there will be a recount where your vote will be looked at again briefly by another civil servant. If you're really lucky someone getting the 5th seat in a 5 seater constituency will see it and instantly forget it the moment they get elected or eliminated.

Gringo180

Kickstart1.3 wrote: »

I think they've done well, bar the time labour were the flavour of the day they have held power between them for the last Century
Or is it you mean you haven't done so well while they have been in power?

Done well? We have a 3rd world health service, the biggest homeless crisis in the states history, highest rents and gross inequality in the public sector.

Nody

Pawwed Rig wrote: »

If you want to goto the effort of taking 30 mins to an hour out of your Saturday so that a civil servant doing a nixer on a Saturday can add your vote to the spoiled pile without even a second glance then go for it. Best case scenario there will be a recount where your vote will be looked at again briefly by another civil servant. If you're really lucky someone getting the 5th seat in a 5 seater constituency will see it and instantly forget it the moment they get elected or eliminated.

It has nothing to do with the civil servants; spoiling your vote rather than not voting is stating you don't like any of the choices available but you're active and available for the right candidate. Not voting simply shows that it's a voter who can be ignored because they are to lazy to make their voice heard when it matters. I don't care if the vote is for the Donald Duck party or the Third Reich; the fact that people do vote is what matters as they are actively participating in their democratic duty.

L1011

Open goal and she misses, stumbling a few times on the way

Bishop of hope

She is ****ing up big time on health too, she's all over the place.

maynooth_rules

Gringo180 wrote: »

Done well? We have a 3rd world health service, the biggest homeless crisis in the states history, highest rents and gross inequality in the public sector.

You may actually want to live in a 3rd world country to actuslly appreciate what we have here. Have we problems, of course. But lots not be dramatic with the 3rd world noncense.

namloc1980

maynooth_rules wrote: »

Mary Lou is getting gutted tonight. Her stuttering over the special criminals court was hard to watch. Glad she was pushed on the question. Leo also rinsed her on Northern Irelands homeless figures. Mary Lou should have turned down the interview. Her popularity was flying due to her not being put to the test in a proper debate.
Leo comfortably winning this debate. May be too late for him to turn it around though

Except the 20k figure he quoted is a load of rubbish.

We have a waster crisis..... Scum with plenty cash who buy their kids scramblers living in subsidised accommodation and thousands more like them aspiring to it.

The genuine homeless suffer because of these, no government can solve that.